ENSO Discussion

[snow_wizard]

El Niño head fake, then retraction to ENSO neutral for winter 2018/19.

 

Two downwelling OKWs propagating eastward will start warming the Pacific soon, but -QBO/Indo-Pacific enhancement will destructively interfere and probably prevent an El Niño, IMO.

 

I totally agree.  We have had a lot of summer fake outs in recent years.  It would be pretty much unheard of to have a Nino just before solar min anyway.

[snow_wizard]

In the short term, I don’t think low solar *by itself* argues for/against any ENSO event. It depends on the boundary conditions present. Also, the *rate-of-change* in solar forcing can also be hugely important.

 

In fact, over the long term (multidecadal/multicentennial timeframes) low solar actually produces weak SST warming across the South Pacific and South Atlantic, along with a weak/east-based Niño background state, and much colder SSTs across the NPAC/NATL (minus a small blob of warm SSTAs SW of Greenland). Sort of a weird/opposite look compared to today.

 

I was just going by past history.

[Geos]

La Nina still going pretty good. Has essentially flat-lined for awhile.

 

[snow_wizard]

It's well within the realm of natural variability for this to happen, the historical record even going back to the mid 19th century is way too short to capture a majority let alone the most of the inter annual variability w/ ENSO especially when your sample size of super El Ninos amounts to just several events w/ highly variable background state. 1877-78 & 2015-16 share a lot more in common with each other than either 1982-83 & 1997-98 imo, and a weak El Nino followed in 1880-81 and its ONI value likely peaked somewhere between +0.60-0.75C. 1891 is the most classical example of a NINO head fake before 1950, but it started out w/ a much colder base state, following in the footsteps of a strong and a weak La Nina in 1889-90, & 1890-91 respectively. A strong El Nino in 1896-97 was followed by a borderline moderate-strong El Nino in 1899-00, a multi-year weak-moderate El Nino in 1904-06 followed on the heels of a strong El Nino in 1902-03 that coincided with the Santa Maria Eruption in 1902. I'm doubtful solar activity will be influential enough to put a damper on a moderate event if it manages to transpire, the forcing out of the gate this year is comparable to the most intense events in the modern era and this weak downwelling wave in the east Pacific has already pre-conditioned the tropical Pacific for the big kelvin wave that's about to emerge. Anything from another La Nina to a borderline moderate-strong El Nino is legitimately possible, but I'm leaning towards an El Nino more so than neutral ENSO or La Nina. Given the profound MJO pulse currently ongoing in the WP before the Vernal Equinox that's comparable to the events that preceded the 1997-98 & 2015-16 super events, and the record +PMM this past January, with approximately two-thirds of all +PMM events in observations and NWP simulations are followed by El Ninos, the magnitude of this +PMM stint may be increasing those odds even further for an El Nino this year. This is showing all the classic early warning signs of an oncoming El Nino, whether or not one actually transpires and how strong it becomes remains to be seen but I think the chances are at least probable (~50-60%) even this early in the game. Just about everything you look for from a dynamical sense is on the table and we're doing everything we need to do to get ourselves there, we just need to see how this evolves through the spring predictability barrier before we can confidently speculate one way or the other.

 

I think this season being just before a major solar minimum will tip the balance and result in a failed El Nino attempt.  The failed attempt last year probably released some extra heat to make a Nino even more unlikely.  2019-20 on the other hand has a good chance of having a Nino IMO.

[snow_wizard]

La Nina still going pretty good. Has essentially flat-lined for awhile.

 

 

No doubt we are going to get the 5 consecutive tri monthly readings of -0.5 or lower to make it official.

[Guest happ]

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/april-2018-enso-update-what-lurks-beneath

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The CPC/IRI just updated their ENSO probability forecast. Their thinking a transition to ENSO-neutral during April-May and continuing until the fall when chances are we head into an El Nino, albeit a weak one in winter. A 48% chance of an El Nino by the end of the year compared to 39% chance of ENSO-neutral.

 

[Phil]

Wow, that’s pretty bearish. I’ve seen them pound the niño drum with much less to go on. Smart choice IMO.

 

Next round of trades starts this weekend with intraseasonal forcing entering the IO/EHEM. How long the wave maintains itself remains to be seen, though really it’s not this orbit, but the two follow-ups (May and June) that I’m watching closely. How the inteaseasonal resonance interacts with the developing monsoonal trough towards the solstice is usually the big revealer, IMO.

[Geos]

Still a wide area below normal

 

[Guest happ]

"Goodbye La Nina! A look back at how it affected winter and what's ahead": http://bit.ly/2L0w3ga

[Black Hole]

I changed the title to ENSO discussion.

[Phil]

Still like my idea of a head fake to niño, then a retraction to neutral or warm neutral. The SST warmth should be west-based, with niño-4 possibly running borderline niño conditions through the winter, with niño-3 running neutral, and niño1-2 running cool. The real move to El Niño will start in J/F/M 2019, IMO. Thereafter, a west-based, modoki-style niño follows in winter 2019/20.

 

The return to a retracted IPWP cycle in 2020 will then mark the initiation of the next phase of moderate to strong west-based Niñas in the early 2020s, along with at least a temporary return to -PDO.

[Phil]

Still like my idea of a head fake to niño, then a retraction to neutral or warm neutral. The SST warmth should be west-based, with niño-4 possibly running borderline niño conditions through the winter, with niño-3 running neutral, and niño1-2 running cool. The real move to El Niño will start in J/F/M 2019, IMO. Thereafter, a west-based, modoki-style niño follows in winter 2019/20.

 

The return to a retracted IPWP cycle in 2020 will then mark the initiation of the next phase of moderate to strong west-based Niñas in the early 2020s, along with at least a temporary return to -PDO.

However, given the weak solar cycle, and resultant dampening of the amplitude of the IPWP cycle, there is a small chance that the niño will wait until 2020/21, or end up being a 2yr niño. Unlikely, but possible.

 

While this is is highly unlikely to affect the niña/IPWP retraction in the early 2020s, it’s still an intriguing situation in the nearer term. If this year overcomes the odds and goes niño, then the odds of either a multi-year niño or a niño in 2020/21 greatly increase.

 

Ironically, the easiest forecast is probably 2021/22 thanks to resonant overlap between the IPWP and solar forcing. It will likely be either a 1st or 2nd year Niña, and very likely will be west-based, as well.

[Jesse]

However, given the weak solar cycle, and resultant dampening of the amplitude of the IPWP cycle, there is a small chance that the niño will wait until 2020/21, or end up being a 2yr niño. Unlikely, but possible.

 

While this is is highly unlikely to affect the niña/IPWP retraction in the early 2020s, it’s still an intriguing situation in the nearer term. If this year overcomes the odds and goes niño, then the odds of either a multi-year niño or a niño in 2020/21 greatly increase.

 

Ironically, the easiest forecast is probably 2021/22 thanks to resonant overlap between the IPWP and solar forcing. It will likely be either a 1st or 2nd year Niña, and very likely will be west-based, as well.

Then after that the ice age starts?

[Phil]

Then after that the ice age starts?

We’re technically in one right now.

 

As for period of global cooling, it’s already started. It technically began in 2016. Slow cooling will continue until the next west-based niño (marks the westward retraction of the IPWP in resonance w/ external forcing). Then the cooling should accelerate in the early-2020s, probably totaling about 0.2C - 0.3C by 2030. Whether it continues thereafter depends on solar forcing..if we rebound to modern-maximum conditions, then it probably stops, or if activity remains low to average, it may continue.

 

Your skepticism is understandable and expected.

[Jesse]

We’re technically in one right now.

 

As for period of global cooling, it’s already started. It technically began in 2016. Slow cooling will continue until the next west-based niño (marks the westward retraction of the IPWP in resonance w/ external forcing). Then the cooling should accelerate in the early-2020s, probably totaling about 0.2C - 0.3C by 2030. Whether it continues thereafter depends on solar forcing..if we rebound to modern-maximum conditions, then it probably stops, or if activity remains low to average, it may continue.

 

Your skepticism is understandable and expected.

If I could live through even a watered down version of the 1948-57 circulation I would die happy.

[Front Ranger]

If I could live through even a watered down version of the 1948-57 circulation I would die happy.

The interesting thing about that period compared to now is that we have much lower solar activity today. There was something else driving the deep -PDO/-ENSO circulation then.

[Phil]

If I could live through even a watered down version of the 1948-57 circulation I would die happy.

Well, good news is the 1939-1946 period is easily the best structural climate analog to 2013-2018. So who knows, we might be heading that way.

 

At the very least, those 2-3 years during the early 2020s will probably hold some level of resemblance to classical niña/-PDO eras. That doesn’t always mean we will have blocking/-NAM (1974-76 and 1998-01 are two examples less-blocky IPWP retractions), however they do cool the atmosphere, and produce -PNAs/SE-ridging.

[Phil]

The interesting thing about that period compared to now is that we have much lower solar activity today. There was something else driving the deep -PDO/-ENSO circulation then.

Ironically, it was probably a response to the increase in solar activity in the 1940s, which warmed the WPAC and strengthened the Walker Cell, since the climate system was still recovering from the LIA and had plenty of warming left to do. Amazing how non-linear these things can be.

[Phil]

- Prolonged periods of high solar favor strong, single-yr niños and multi-yr niñas.

 

- Prolonged periods of low solar favor weak, multi-yr niños and single-yr niñas.

 

- Niña/-PDO is a regime of ocean heat uptake, which cools the atmosphere, while Niño/+PDO is a regime of ocean heat release, which warms the atmosphere.

 

- Short term/decadal effects of Niño/+PDO are a warmer atmosphere/upper ocean, but the long term effects are to release heat/cool the ocean/atmosphere system,

 

- Short term/decadal effects of Niña/-PDO are a cooler atmosphere/upper ocean, but the long term effects are to absorb heat/warm the ocean atmosphere system.

 

- This is why the MWP, and the majority of the middle Holocene, was dominated by -ENSO/-PDO, and it’s why the LIA, and the majority of the neoglacial late Holocene was dominated by +ENSO/+PDO.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Still a wide area below normal

 

Disagreement among the two maps.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anomp.5.17.2018.gif

[Phil]

Disagreement among the two maps.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anomp.5.17.2018.gif

They use different climatology periods.

[TT-SEA]

Disagreement among the two maps.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anomp.5.17.2018.gif

He posted that a month ago... it must be a live link that is updating because the map is from today connected to a post from April 17th.

[Anti Marine Layer]

He posted that a month ago... it must be a live link that is updating because the map is from today connected to a post from April 17th.

 

The one I posted is from today.

[OKwx2k4]

They use different climatology periods.

Which climatology does NOAA use?

[Phil]

Which climatology does NOAA use?

You mean the NOAA-OSPO/NESDIS dataset?

 

I believe it uses a 1985-1993 climatology period, which is much shorter/colder than the 1981-2010 climatology period utilized by OISST/CDAS.

 

Which is why I’ve grown less fond of OSPO/NESDIS in recent years, spatially speaking. The climatology period is no bueno..that era was all +PDO/-AMO..so that type of SSTA configuration today will not be well-represented.

[OKwx2k4]

You mean the NOAA-OSPO/NESDIS dataset?

 

I believe it uses a 1985-1993 climatology period, which is much shorter/colder than the 1981-2010 climatology period utilized by OISST/CDAS.

 

Which is why I’ve grown less fond of OSPO/NESDIS in recent years, spatially speaking. The climatology period is no bueno..that era was all +PDO/-AMO..so that type of SSTA configuration today will not be well-represented.

Yeah. Whatever alphabet soup name they want to call it. Lol. That's what I was referring to.

 

They just happened to pick the coldest background state they could find. Unreal sometimes what horse manure they shovel out as science these days.

[Phil]

Man, seems everyone is leaning El Niño now. NOAA, Accuweather, WxBell, many tropical meteorologists. And I’m here scratching my head..I just don’t see the necessary preconditionings for it.

 

We’ve had no reinforcing WWB activity, off-eq trades gave been consolidating, and the downwelling OKW has stalled and will cycle in a few months without mechanical reinforcement. And now we’ve got 2-3 weeks of enhanced trades upcoming. I’m lost.

 

Either I’m missing something everyone else is seeing, or there is widespread climate model hugging going on. As of now, I’m sticking with my call for a head fake and regression to a west-based warm-neutral.

[TT-SEA]

I hope it stays around neutral.   Best chance for a warm summer and a cold winter.  

[Black Hole]

Man, seems everyone is leaning El Niño now. NOAA, Accuweather, WxBell, many tropical meteorologists. And I’m here scratching my head..I just don’t see the necessary preconditionings for it.

 

We’ve had no reinforcing WWB activity, off-eq trades gave been consolidating, and the downwelling OKW has stalled and will cycle in a few months without mechanical reinforcement. And now we’ve got 2-3 weeks of enhanced trades upcoming. I’m lost.

 

Either I’m missing something everyone else is seeing, or there is widespread climate model hugging going on. As of now, I’m sticking with my call for a head fake and regression to a west-based warm-neutral.

A lot of warm water below the surface and gradual warming has continued, especially west. I think el nino is possible but right now it doesn't look better than weak. 

[Phil]

A lot of warm water below the surface and gradual warming has continued, especially west. I think el nino is possible but right now it doesn't look better than weak.

Yeah, that downwelling OKW did warm the subsurface. Though my concern is WWB activity has been lacking since its inception back in Feb/Mar, and if there’s no additional reinforcement before diffraction then there’s basically nothing to sustain the move into El Niño.

 

This upcoming trade burst will be key, IMO. If there’s no follow up WWB activity, then I highly doubt there will be enough fluid inertia left for a niño.

[Webberweather53]

I think this season being just before a major solar minimum will tip the balance and result in a failed El Nino attempt.  The failed attempt last year probably released some extra heat to make a Nino even more unlikely.  2019-20 on the other hand has a good chance of having a Nino IMO.

 

This claim doesn't hold water considering that the 2 largest El Ninos of the 19th century occurred within about 1-2 years before solar min in 1877-78 & 1888-89. All the other failed NINO attempts in the modern era like 2012 & 2017 featured a warm Atlantic coupled to warming that initiated in the far eastern Pacific before the rest of the basin, this year is the coldest in the entire OISSTv2 dataset in the Atlantic MDR and the central Pacific warmed before the far EP, completely different pattern and one that's not hostile to NINO growth.

[Phil]

This claim doesn't hold water considering that the 2 largest El Ninos of the 19th century occurred within about 1-2 years before solar min in 1877-78 & 1888-89. All the other failed NINO attempts in the modern era like 2012 & 2017 featured a warm Atlantic coupled to warming that initiated in the far eastern Pacific before the rest of the basin, this year is the coldest in the entire OISSTv2 dataset in the Atlantic MDR and the central Pacific warmed before the far EP, completely different pattern and one that's not hostile to NINO growth.

I’d argue weak solar actually favors El Niño, or at least predisposes the IPWP to hold a more niño-friendly state during the crucial Feb-Jun period.

 

All else being equal, of course. Which often isn’t the case in the long term.

[Webberweather53]

For those that are interested (esp Phil), I made a few minor tweaks, further refined, and updated my ENS ONI index from the mid 19th century thru the present, putting it on my new website which was initially created to house a massive winter storm archive for NC (& still will obviously). I made the data (raw monthly NINO 3.4 SSTs, tri-monthly and standardized data, and ranks) easily accessible via Excel.

 

An intriguing distinguishing quality amongst most Super El Ninos in the observational record is the tendency to set new, successive, all-time monthly records in the NINO 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific. 1877-78's record stood for over a century, lasting until 1982-83, which was later beaten by 1997-98 & then 2015-16. This doesn't take away from the fact that years like 1888-89 & 1972-73 weren't massive, but 1877-78, 1982-83, 1997-98, & 2015-16 certainly go the extra mile whereas those other 2 "Super" NINOs didn't as much. 

 

Enjoy!

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

 

[Webberweather53]

The similarities between the mid-late 1870s and the last several years are getting borderline scary at this point. The progression is eerily similar, w/ 1880-81 producing a late blooming, weak El Nino after the Equinox that had trouble fading away after the winter, I think that's a very plausible scenario for 2018-19.

 

1875-76 & 2013-14: Cold neutral ENSO

1876-77 & 2014-15: Weak El Nino develops after the Equinox

1877-78 & 2015-16: "Super" El Nino

1878-78 & 2016-17: Cold neutral ENSO

1879-80 & 2017-18: Weak-Moderate La Nina

1880-81 & 2018-19: Weak El Nino develops after the equinox (?)

 

1876-1880 ENS ONI

 

 

 

 

2014-18 ENS ONI

 

[Phil]

Fantastic work as usual, Eric. Really do appreciate your ENSO reconstructions.

 

Definitely a fascinating evolution this year, as well.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Crazy to me that 2 of the most impressive arctic/snow events for the Willamette Valley occurred in 68-69, a moderate Nino and 72-73, a mammoth Nino.

[Front Ranger]

NWS fell for the head fake!!

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/it-s-looking-more-likely-we-ll-have-another-el-n883431

[TT-SEA]

Odd configuration... you can see the weak Nino forming in the ENSO regions but its uniformly warm to the north of the ENSO regions and cold to the south.

 

[Phil]

Odd configuration... you can see the weak Nino forming in the ENSO regions but its uniformly warm to the north of the ENSO regions and cold to the south.

 

You can see the +PMM and -AMM clearly there. The colder IO is interesting too. The IO was the global SSTA hotspot for over 2 decades, and it sort of just flipped following the super-niño in 2016. Probably no coincidence that the IO and NATL have been heavily connected throughout the Holocene.

 

At the very least, we’re probably moving away from the particular seasonality of the axisymmetric forcing that has dominated since 1998, and into a new one.