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snow_wizard

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Where's all this warm water coming from?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

Good question.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Good question.

I'm stumped. Don't see evidence of any major oceanic KW, and unlikely to be a result of instability waves or convergence, according to the surface-current datasets.

 

Sort of like bumble bees being able to fly..sometimes nature just doesn't give a s**t about what we think it should do, I guess.

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I'm stumped. Don't see evidence of any major oceanic KW, and unlikely to be a result of instability waves or convergence, according to the surface-current datasets.

 

Sort of like bumble bees being able to fly..sometimes nature just doesn't give a s**t about what we think it should do, I guess.

 

 

Also looks like the most of the Earth has warmer than normal ocean water.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Also looks like the most of the Earth has warmer than normal ocean water.

Yeah, classic for off-equator SSTAs to go nuclear following a super-niño.

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Or natural forces warming the entire globe.

This was the first super niño to occur/superimpose itself on the very warm 2001-present background state, so yeah it's definitely a different look.

 

Global SSTAs should drop significantly over the next several years, however.

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This was the first super niño to occur/superimpose itself on the very warm 2001-present background state, so yeah it's definitely a different look.

 

Global SSTAs should drop significantly over the next several years, however.

 

 

Sort of like bumble bees being able to fly..sometimes nature just doesn't give a s**t about what we think it should do, I guess.

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That is and always will be a challenge here... Even if we do get moisture then we often have to deal with the puget sound rain shadow. Albeit it always keeps us guessing. Bring on the frost we can count on that for sure. 

 

 

You're only referring to recent years.  It used to be much more common.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Yikes..could the CDAS data be flawed in some way? Trades have been stronger than average, subsurface is quite cold, yet..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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The NOAA/OSPO data is cooler overall, but still depicts a notable ENSO warming:

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

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The NOAA/OSPO data is cooler overall, but still depicts a notable ENSO warming:

 

 

 

It appears there was a small chunk of warm water just below the surface that the recent TW burst must have forced up.  The warming should be very short lived.  No doubt I'm surprised by it though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It appears there was a small chunk of warm water just below the surface that the recent TW burst must have forced up. The warming should be very short lived. No doubt I'm surprised by it though.

I'm not sure about that, because the subsurface waters are colder than the surface waters (even during Niños), and are certainly colder now. I'm thinking it might have something to do with the oceanic rossby wave packet sandwiched to the N/S of the equatorial waters, but that's just a guess and I could be wrong.

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I'm not sure about that, because the subsurface waters are colder than the surface waters (even during Niños), and are certainly colder now. I'm thinking it might have something to do with the oceanic rossby wave packet sandwiched to the N/S of the equatorial waters, but that's just a guess and I could be wrong.

 

That is a good point.  When I was looking at the subsurface map it showed a small chunk of anomalous warm water, but it still could have actually been cooler than anything on the surface.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That is a good point. When I was looking at the subsurface map it showed a small chunk of anomalous warm water, but it still could have actually been cooler than anything on the surface.

Yeah, the shallow "warm anomaly bubble" that just popped up below the surface (probably) indicates a lack of upwelling in that region, hence the warming SSTs.

 

The question is, what's inhibiting the upwelling?

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Yeah, the shallow "warm anomaly bubble" that just popped up below the surface (probably) indicates a lack of upwelling in that region, hence the warming SSTs.

 

The question is, what's inhibiting the upwelling?

 

My guess is the recent and ongoing trade wind burst will change things soon enough.  I'm betting Nino 3.4 will be -1.0 within a couple of weeks.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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My guess is the recent and ongoing trade wind burst will change things soon enough.  I'm betting Nino 3.4 will be -1.0 within a couple of weeks.

 

Not likely.

 

Its been warming considerably over the last week.   You have been saying 'soon enough' for a long time and its not happening.     Still like the prospects for this winter though.

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It is interesting looking at the 7 day change map.  It appears the areas north and south of the ENSO region have dropped in the Central and Eastern Pacific.  The warm water that has been built up over those areas may have collapsed into the ENSO regions thus causing the rapid warming.  It's also noteworthy Nino 1+2 and part of 3 have dropped.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Haha, what in the hell :lol:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

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Haha, what in the hell :lol:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

Through those cold ENSO analogues out the window.
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Are there any good articles out there explaining what's causing the warming in the ENSO region? Probably a question only Phil would know the answer to.

I have no idea..maybe some sort of inertial ocean-based wave? Perhaps a minor KW or ORW? Velocity Potential is reflective of Niña forcing, so the only explanation I can think of (that works) is something of a fluid-mechanical nature.

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Upper level VPs = Niña cell:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-09/B9E5C147-7BC1-411C-BB0C-1200EEBF73B3_zpsowqrrr0u.gif

 

Lower level VPs = Niña cell:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-09/67A58D90-D306-4039-9419-9BB0BAA342BF_zpsz6rlniur.gif

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I have no idea..maybe some sort of inertial ocean-based wave? Perhaps a minor KW or ORW? Velocity Potential is reflective of Niña forcing, so the only explanation I can think of (that works) is something of a fluid-mechanical nature.

 

One thing for sure is it doesn't mean a Nino is coming.  The atmosphere has been very Ninaish.  My theory is the warm water that had been hanging out just N and S of the ENSO area flooded into the 5N to 5S region.  It could mean the Nina will cover a wider belt after this is over.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

One thing for sure is it doesn't mean a Nino is coming.  The atmosphere has been very Ninaish.  My theory is the warm water that had been hanging out just N and S of the ENSO area flooded into the 5N to 5S region.  It could mean the Nina will cover a wider belt after this is over.

 

:lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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One thing for sure is it doesn't mean a Nino is coming.  The atmosphere has been very Ninaish.  My theory is the warm water that had been hanging out just N and S of the ENSO area flooded into the 5N to 5S region.  It could mean the Nina will cover a wider belt after this is over.

 

:huh: I really don't think so.... just my opinion....

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Through those cold ENSO analogues out the window.

 

Nah.  It will turn cold again very soon.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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:huh: I really don't think so.... just my opinion....

 

It's the only place that warm water could have come from.  The subsurface is cold, the trade winds have been above normal, and the atmosphere has been in a full blown Nina mode.  The one thing has struck me about the Nina is how narrow the strip of cold anoms have been and how warm it's been just N and S of the 5N to 5S belt.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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