ENSO Discussion

[Phil]

This should give Jim a nice moral quandary. Well done!

Your paranoia seems to worsen exponentially every year.

 

You've been making loads of erroneous assumptions about me recently, and it's becoming quite irritating. To start, I didn't even quote Jim, and I've provided a large quantity of research on the QBO/ENSO relationship over the last year or two. Flatiron has also expanded on some of the research I've presented, and he's generally better than me at explaining this stuff in a simplistic, straightforward manner, so you cannot claim to be unaware of these discussions, or confused as to their content. You're a fairly smart dude.

[Phil]

Just to highlight recent examples of this relationship, here's all 21st century -ENSO winters, sorted by QBO phase:

 

-ENSO/-QBO: 1999/00, 2001/02, 2005/06, 2007/08, 2011/12.

 

-ENSO/+QBO: 2008/09, 2010/11, 2013/14, 2016/17.

 

Notice anything?

[ShawniganLake]

Just to highlight recent examples of this relationship, here's all 21st century -ENSO winters, sorted by QBO phase:

 

-ENSO/-QBO: 1999/00, 2001/02, 2005/06, 2007/08, 2011/12.

 

-ENSO/+QBO: 2008/09, 2010/11, 2013/14, 2016/17.

 

Notice anything?

What was 2006/07

[Phil]

What was 2006/07

That was a Niño/+QBO during a solar minimum, so largely irrelevant to the comparison involving -ENSO/Niña years.

[stuffradio]

This should give Jim a nice moral quandary. Well done!

Let's tone the number of posts like this down a notch please.

[ShawniganLake]

That was a Niño/+QBO during a solar minimum, so largely irrelevant to the comparison involving -ENSO/Niña years.

I was mostly just curious what the QBO was. One of the more worthwhile ninos around here.

[Phil]

I was mostly just curious what the QBO was. One of the more worthwhile ninos around here.

Yeah, that was kind of a weird year. I haven't done as much research on the QBO factor w/ regards to +ENSO, but will try to run a quick analysis on ESRL tonight or tomorrow. I suspect you'd generally perform better under the -QBO, but could envision timing/maturity factoring into z-cell behavior more than the sign as a whole.

[Phil]

Let's tone the number of posts like this down a notch please.

Has been a theme for awhile, unfortunately.

[OKwx2k4]

Has been a theme for awhile, unfortunately.

I could go a hundred years without ever living through a 2008-09 winter here in eastern Oklahoma. We don't really make the research list on the ice storm of 2009 very often but I personally measured 2.75 inches of ice accumulations in late January that year. I don't ever want to see another 2008-09 for as long as I live.

[Jesse]

Let's tone the number of posts like this down a notch please.

Fair enough. Just some mild sarcasm. Hopefully the same applies to others.

[stuffradio]

Fair enough. Just some mild sarcasm. Hopefully the same applies to others.

You know it does because you see me posting similar messages to other people and you like them sometimes.

[ShawniganLake]

3.4 and 4 have seen some slight cooling over the past few days. Looks like we might be seeing the post Nino drop off of the global ssta

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Shunnnn

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

[TT-SEA]

7 day change... PDO is falling again and more warming than cooling in the ENSO regions.

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

[westcoastexpat]

I don't think it matters much at this point. Pretty decent agreement that we're going to stay in a very weak/neutral state for some time. Not much of an ENSO signal... need to look elsewhere.

[westcoastexpat]

It does look like the Nina is about to die.

[Phil]

It does look like the Nina is about to die.

It's definitely peaked SSTA wise, given the oceanic KW that's now propagating eastward (response to the niñoi-sh intraseasonal forcing last month), however I think the atmosphere will likely retain the weak, low frequency Niña background state into/through February, at least.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Any new thoughts on ENSO for 2017-18?

[Phil]

Any new thoughts on ENSO for 2017-18?

ENSO neutral.

[snow_wizard]

Did anyone notice the -640 SOI reading the other day?  It really messed up the 30 day and 90 day SOI averages.

[OKwx2k4]

Dumb question but have we officially recorded a Niña yet?

[OKwx2k4]

I guess no one knows yet?

[ShawniganLake]

I guess no one knows yet?

I believe the OND and NDJ trimonthlies would both have to come in -0.5 or below.

[OKwx2k4]

I believe the OND and NDJ trimonthlies would both have to come in -0.5 or below.

Thank you. Not looking like an official Niña should be recorded for this event.

[Phil]

El Niño starting to look somewhat more plausible next winter, assuming the atmosphere breaks from the (weak) Niña circulation. One big MJO/WWB event might be all it takes for a regime change.

 

Looking at the TAO data, the Pacific subsurface is primed for a Niño, classic loading pattern. If atmosphere decides to go that way, it'd be an easy flip.

[TT-SEA]

El Niño starting to look somewhat more plausible next winter, assuming the atmosphere breaks from the (weak) Niña circulation. One big MJO/WWB event might be all it takes for a regime change.

 

Looking at the TAO data, the Pacific subsurface is primed for a Niño, classic loading pattern. If atmosphere decides to go that way, it'd be an easy flip.

 

 

Multi-year Nina... to neutral and then Nino.   

 

Nature is full of surprises.

[Jesse]

El Niño starting to look somewhat more plausible next winter, assuming the atmosphere breaks from the (weak) Niña circulation. One big MJO/WWB event might be all it takes for a regime change.

 

Looking at the TAO data, the Pacific subsurface is primed for a Niño, classic loading pattern. If atmosphere decides to go that way, it'd be an easy flip.

Nice to hear. This couple month break from years of torching has been pure hell.

[Deweydog]

Nice to hear. This couple month break from years of torching has been pure hell.

It's been like six weeks.

[Jesse]

It's been like six weeks.

July and September were below average too!

[Phil]

Multi-year Nina... to neutral and then Nino.

 

Nature is full of surprises.

I'm still hedging neutral, but I think a Niño is more likely than a Niña if anything.

[Deweydog]

July and September were below average too!

True.

 

We're due for some persistent warmth!

[OKwx2k4]

El Niño starting to look somewhat more plausible next winter, assuming the atmosphere breaks from the (weak) Niña circulation. One big MJO/WWB event might be all it takes for a regime change.

 

Looking at the TAO data, the Pacific subsurface is primed for a Niño, classic loading pattern. If atmosphere decides to go that way, it'd be an easy flip.

I'm personally leaning warm neutral but you know way way more about all of the variables in play than I do.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm going positive neutral and the strong Nina in 18-19

[snow_wizard]

I am a bit worried after looking at the ECMWF Nino plumes. A lot of pretty warm members there. On the other hand a Nino of any strength is very unlikely so soon after a very strong multi year El Nino. At this point I suppose warm neutral would be the way to go.

[TT-SEA]

I am a bit worried after looking at the ECMWF Nino plumes. A lot of pretty warm members there. On the other hand a Nino of any strength is very unlikely so soon after a very strong multi year El Nino. At this point I suppose warm neutral would be the way to go.

 

It is taking me some time to adjust to this new reality.   I was convinced a multi-year strong Nina was likely.    Now we might end up with no Nina at all.  

[Guest happ]

I am a bit worried after looking at the ECMWF Nino plumes. A lot of pretty warm members there. On the other hand a Nino of any strength is very unlikely so soon after a very strong multi year El Nino. At this point I suppose warm neutral would be the way to go.

 

It works out perfectly for California

[Phil]

It is taking me some time to adjust to this new reality. I was convinced a multi-year strong Nina was likely. Now we might end up with no Nina at all.

We're in a La Niña now.

[TT-SEA]

We're in a La Niña now.

 

 

Not really...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[TT-SEA]

And warming across the ENSO regions over the last week...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[Phil]

Those warm SSTAs are still biased between 120E and the dateline. If the warm season convection sets up there, with the climatological subsidence to the east, then that's another troughy summer in the west.

 

Of course, there's a chance the background state reshuffles completely following the potential SSW. Something similar happened in 2013.