ENSO Discussion

[Jesse]

Of course, there's a chance the background state reshuffles completely following the potential SSW. Something similar happened in 2013.

Nice. Maybe another multi-year stretch of record warmth coming up for us?

[Phil]

Nice. Maybe another multi-year stretch of record warmth coming up for us?

The background state can shift in a number of ways. It doesn't have to emulate 2013..could easily go the other way.

 

What I'm discussing is merely a conduit through which systematic change can be obtained in very short order.

[OKwx2k4]

I'd take a 2013 summer every year here. Highs in the upper 80s to 90 for most of it except August which was the typical mid-90s for around 2 weeks. Plenty of rainfall. It's hard to beat a summer like that one.

[Phil]

I'd take a 2013 summer every year here. Highs in the upper 80s to 90 for most of it except August which was the typical mid-90s for around 2 weeks. Plenty of rainfall. It's hard to beat a summer like that one.

That was a nice summer here too, with only about 25 days above 90F. Had a heatwave in July and another in late August, but otherwise was quite tolerable.

 

That said, after three decent summers (2013/14/15), I'm not sure we can pull off another one so soon.

[OKwx2k4]

That was a nice summer here too, with only about 25 days above 90F. Had a heatwave in July and another in late August, but otherwise was quite tolerable.

 

That said, after three decent summers (2013/14/15), I'm not sure we can pull off another one so soon.

True. I'd be ok though as long as we don't try another 2011 sometime soon. I know it's inevitable at some point but I'm not a fan of heat stroke. Lol

[BLI snowman]

I'd take a 2013 summer every year here. Highs in the upper 80s to 90 for most of it except August which was the typical mid-90s for around 2 weeks. Plenty of rainfall. It's hard to beat a summer like that one.

 

That was a nice summer here too. Warm but without any major heat spikes and a high amount of convection through the PNW. Then an early fall.

[Phil]

True. I'd be ok though as long as we don't try another 2011 sometime soon. I know it's inevitable at some point but I'm not a fan of heat stroke. Lol

Yeah..worst summer in living memory for me. That one afternoon where the heat index hovered around 130F was scary.

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah..worst summer in living memory for me. That one afternoon where the heat index hovered around 130F was scary.

I think I got as close to dying as I've ever been that year. To top the crazy heat, I worked in a feed mill with no AC and tons of heat sources. I bought a thermometer and stuck it into my building one day and measured an actual temp of 141 at 5 feet high inside. A day or 2 later, I had to go out and repair some equipment which took around an hour to get done. My entire body freaked out, my muscles all contracted and I hit the concrete like a rock. Lol. I don't even remember much of the afternoon after that. Hardest summer of my life though.

[Phil]

I think I got as close to dying as I've ever been that year. To top the crazy heat, I worked in a feed mill with no AC and tons of heat sources. I bought a thermometer and stuck it into my building one day and measured an actual temp of 141 at 5 feet high inside. A day or 2 later, I had to go out and repair some equipment which took around an hour to get done. My entire body freaked out, my muscles all contracted and I hit the concrete like a rock. Lol. I don't even remember much of the afternoon after that. Hardest summer of my life though.

Holy . Sounds like heat exhaustion or heat stroke. Glad you're okay, man.

 

I work outdoors during the growing season as well, mostly tree and drainage work but general landscaping too. So far I've avoided collapsing and/or falling out of trees, but I've come close a few times.

[OKwx2k4]

Holy s**t. Sounds like heat exhaustion or heat stroke. Glad you're okay, man.

 

I work outdoors during the growing season as well, mostly tree and drainage work but general landscaping too. So far I've avoided collapsing and/or falling out of trees, but I've come close a few times.

Thanks. It was a real trip for a little while. The only consequence that I know of that is still left is that I have no tolerance for extreme heat anymore since then. I live in the wrong place for that though. Lol

[Phil]

Thanks. It was a real trip for a little while. The only consequence that I know of that is still left is that I have no tolerance for extreme heat anymore since then. I live in the wrong place for that though. Lol

Yeah, you guys have it pretty bad down there with that warm profile/EML off the Rockies. Drives your severe weather but also drives your heat, haha.

 

What are dewpoints usually like down there in summer? I know that once dews reach the mid-70s, I start to break down. With all the water around here, that humidity sort of pools in here against the mountains, and just sits there. The morning/midday winds usually start off westerly here, so downsloping off the mountains will spike temps and drop dewpoints somewhat. However, the afternoon Bay breeze just brings that nasty soup back in, and fails to cool temperature (though usually it does stop them from warming further). Then the sun sets, mixing stops, and it all just smolders through the night, coating everything with water.

[Bryant]

Not really...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Yes, we are. That chart will drop come early February, and the ENSO regions will cool due to IO-MC MJO event that is on the horizon

[snow_wizard]

Yes, we are. That chart will drop come early February, and the ENSO regions will cool due to IO-MC MJO event that is on the horizon

The European models are looking pretty promising for the MJO wave to enter the MC pretty strongly now. Usually good territory for us, and of course, good for La Nina.

[Andie]

I'd take a 2013 summer every year here. Highs in the upper 80s to 90 for most of it except August which was the typical mid-90s for around 2 weeks. Plenty of rainfall. It's hard to beat a summer like that one.

Absolutely !

 

So, how's that possibility shaping up ?

[Andie]

I think I got as close to dying as I've ever been that year. To top the crazy heat, I worked in a feed mill with no AC and tons of heat sources. I bought a thermometer and stuck it into my building one day and measured an actual temp of 141 at 5 feet high inside. A day or 2 later, I had to go out and repair some equipment which took around an hour to get done. My entire body freaked out, my muscles all contracted and I hit the concrete like a rock. Lol. I don't even remember much of the afternoon after that. Hardest summer of my life though.

I recall it well. I found myself on the ground after being unable to stand one day in 2011 while working in the yard. A neighbor rescued me. Honestly, let's not repeat that summer.

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah, you guys have it pretty bad down there with that warm profile/EML off the Rockies. Drives your severe weather but also drives your heat, haha.

 

What are dewpoints usually like down there in summer? I know that once dews reach the mid-70s, I start to break down. With all the water around here, that humidity sort of pools in here against the mountains, and just sits there. The morning/midday winds usually start off westerly here, so downsloping off the mountains will spike temps and drop dewpoints somewhat. However, the afternoon Bay breeze just brings that nasty soup back in, and fails to cool temperature (though usually it does stop them from warming further). Then the sun sets, mixing stops, and it all just smolders through the night, coating everything with water.

From mid-June through mid-August they usually run from 62-68. Depends very largely on early summer precip. 2011 was sort of dry here so if there's 1 blessing there, that's it. When we get it straight from the Gulf though, doesn't matter how much rain we've had.

[OKwx2k4]

Absolutely !

 

So, how's that possibility shaping up ?

Not sure. Thinking an '84ish or an '08 ish type summer. I've been wrong before though. Phil is probably much better at this than me.

[OKwx2k4]

I recall it well. I found myself on the ground after being unable to stand one day in 2011 while working in the yard. A neighbor rescued me. Honestly, let's not repeat that summer.

Only summer I ever remember being hotter than that was 1998.

[Anti Marine Layer]

La Nina is getting weaker, but lately it seems that weak La Nina conditions bring atmospheric river storms to the West Coast as was the case in winter 2010-11 and this winter.

[Phil]

[Phil]

In 2011, the Potomac waters hit 98F, while the Chesapeake Bay waters hit 94F. Dewpoint machine.

[Jesse]

Maybe we should rename this the summer humidity pissing contest thread!

[Phil]

Maybe we should rename this the summer humidity pissing contest thread.

Easy there, snowflake. You should at least contribute to the thread before making snarky remarks.

[Jesse]

Easy there, snowflake. You should at least contribute to the thread before making snarky remarks.

 

Are you part of the alt-right movement now?

 

It's disappointing seeing new posts and thinking they are ENSO updates and realizing they are just humidity commiserating.

[ShawniganLake]

[Phil]

Are you part of the alt-right movement now?

 

It's disappointing seeing new posts and thinking they are ENSO updates and realizing they are just humidity commiserating.

Was going to say cupcake, but I think Dewey has a patent on that one.

 

Watching for a WWB in mid-February. Could get the call rolling towards a Niño or warm neutral. Would be unusual to go right back into a Niño so soon after a super Niño, so maybe warm neutral is the best bet looking forward.

[snow_wizard]

Was going to say cupcake, but I think Dewey has a patent on that one.

 

Watching for a WWB in mid-February. Could get the call rolling towards a Niño or warm neutral. Would be unusual to go right back into a Niño so soon after a super Niño, so maybe warm neutral is the best bet looking forward.

I sure hope it's warm neutral. We can do fairly good with that. We are certainly due for a big Nina if we have any kind of a warm ENSO event.

[Phil]

Underlying trend here is clear:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

[snow_wizard]

I'm feeling a bit better about a warmish neutral call at this point.  The subsurface profile doesn't look warm enough for a full blown Nino.  The model consensus is pretty reassuring also.

[Phil]

I'm feeling a bit better about a warmish neutral call at this point. The subsurface profile doesn't look warm enough for a full blown Nino. The model consensus is pretty reassuring also.

Watch the second half of February. Could determine whether or not we enter a Niño regime next winter.

 

The coming trade wind surge will spike the thermocline and pile water in the WPAC. However, if it's followed by a WWB, that pile of water in the WPAC will slosh back eastward with additional inertia, producing a downwelling KW, warming the subsurface as a result.

 

If we avoid a WWB regime in mid/late February, I think we will avoid a moderate/strong Niño next winter.

[snow_wizard]

Watch the second half of February. Could determine whether or not we enter a Niño regime next winter.

 

The coming trade wind surge will spike the thermocline and pile water in the WPAC. However, if it's followed by a WWB, that pile of water in the WPAC will slosh back eastward with additional inertia, producing a downwelling KW, warming the subsurface as a result.

 

If we avoid a WWB regime in mid/late February, I think we will avoid a moderate/strong Niño next winter.

The CFS has turned into a horror show over the past few days. Showing a borderline moderate Nino now. How can this be possible after we just had a massive multi year Nino and only a wimpy Nina in between? Not only is this horrible news for next winter here, but it assures the normal post Nino global cooling is likely to be put off also. Terrible news.

[Phil]

The CFS has turned into a horror show over the past few days. Showing a borderline moderate Nino now. How can this possible after we just had a massive multi year Nino and only a wimpy Nina in between? Not only is this horrible news for next winter here, but it assures the normal post Nino global cooling is likely to be put off also. Terrible news.

Well, remember we're experiencing a truly unprecedented double +QBO cycle (we skipped the -QBO). A strong +QBO during the solar wind cycle maximum tends to shut down the IO convection and favor Niño development thereafter. It's a regular occurrence in the records all the way back to 1950.

 

Also, global temperatures have avtually cooled substantially off the Niño spike. We're the coolest we've been globally since 2013/14. Plus, a Niño is still technically a systematic heat release in the long run (speaking multidecadally).

[snow_wizard]

Well, remember we're experiencing a truly unprecedented double +QBO cycle (we skipped the -QBO). A strong +QBO during the solar wind cycle maximum tends to shut down the IO convection and favor Niño development thereafter. It's a regular occurrence in the records all the way back to 1950.

 

Also, global temperatures have avtually cooled substantially off the Niño spike. We're the coolest we've been globally since 2013/14. Plus, a Niño is still technically a systematic heat release in the long run (speaking multidecadally).

Yeah...I suppose if we have another Nino it would assure a huge crash and a massive Nina afterward, but it still chaps my hide.

[Guest happ]

The CFS has turned into a horror show over the past few days. Showing a borderline moderate Nino now. How can this be possible after we just had a massive multi year Nino and only a wimpy Nina in between? Not only is this horrible news for next winter here, but it assures the normal post Nino global cooling is likely to be put off also. Terrible news.

 

I agree it is horrible news but some see it as a chance for the rainfall the last Nino did not provide California.

[Phil]

I agree it is horrible news but some see it as a chance for the rainfall the last Nino did not provide California.

Hasn't this winter already done that?

[Guest happ]

Hasn't this winter already done that?

 

No, ground water is still dangerously low; that could take many years to improve. 

[Black Hole]

Models have almost no ENSO skill before spring...just have to wait and see what happens.

[Jesse]

Models have almost no ENSO skill before spring...just have to wait and see what happens.

 

If I had to put money on it I would go with neutral plus. But yeah who knows right now.

[Phil]

Watching this suppressed convective/+OLR network slowly propagate eastward over the last year. Verbatim, suggests more suppressed EPAC forcing as we go through 2017, which will have consequences for the western hemispheric circulations this summer and next winter.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/21160703-7DF0-4866-8598-8438E04CA2F9_zpsbilw3ncq.jpeg

 

Might be a sign that the system seeks to transition into more of a multiwave convective background state, as opposed to a niña convective state. So, might have the forcing propagate into the WPAC and WHEM/ATL domains, with subsidence in the EPAC and the W-IO.

[Jesse]

Watching this suppressed convective/+OLR network slowly propagate eastward over the last year. Verbatim, suggests more suppressed EPAC forcing as we go through 2017, which will have consequences for the western hemispheric circulations this summer and next winter.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/21160703-7DF0-4866-8598-8438E04CA2F9_zpsbilw3ncq.jpeg

 

Might be a sign that the system seeks to transition into more of a multiwave convective background state, as opposed to a niña convective state. So, might have the forcing propagate into the WPAC and WHEM/ATL domains, with subsidence in the EPAC and the W-IO.

Whenever I see the word WPAC and forcing in the same sentence I presume it means that we will be torching for months on end starting shortly.