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snow_wizard

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Whenever I see the word WPAC and forcing in the same sentence I presume it means that we will be torching for months on end starting shortly.

Haha, well that depends on other factors too, such as the boreal summer NAM amplitude, and the whether it's a wave-1 WPAC dominant forcing regime or wave-2 w/ supplementary EPAC/WHEM convection.

 

Summer NAM state is governed by factors like QBO, shortwave radiation fluxes from solar activity and sea ice albedo (alters photochemical forcings/feedbacks), Hadley/Walker Cell ratios, antecedent BDC vigor, etc. Nature of the convection is governed by ENSO/SSTAs and fluid inertia, as well as the QBO and solar radiation fluxes and geomagnetic activity.

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Haha, well that depends on other factors too, such as the boreal summer NAM amplitude, and the whether it's a wave-1 WPAC dominant forcing regime or wave-2 w/ supplementary EPAC/WHEM convection.

 

Summer NAM state is governed by factors like QBO, radiation fluxes from solar activity and sea ice, Hadley/Walker Cell ratios, etc, Nature of the convection is governed by ENSO/SSTAs and fluid inertia, as well as the QBO and solar radiation fluxes and geomagnetic activity.

What is your spring/summer call for us at the moment? Will the NW stay in the generally cool regime we have seen since the beginning of December or will things flip again?
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What is your spring/summer call for us at the moment? Will the NW stay in the generally cool regime we have seen since the beginning of December or will things flip again?

We'll have the answer for summer sometime around the spring equinox. While the aforementioned progression favors an anticyclonic NPAC background state into summer with a downstream western trough, whether it continues depends on whether the PV/NAM breakdown (SSW) and subsequent state-reversal alters the underlying/low frequency tropical convective system, which currently remains under low frequency control of the +QBO. The SSW, or a major volcanic eruption, are the only thing capable of altering this global system state abruptly and permanently, with the last example of such an occurrence being January 2013. Not even the sun can do that so quickly.

 

If the QBO maintains its grip on the thermals and wave state, the developing Niño attempt will fail and the west will experience a cooler than average summer under -PNA and/or generally stronger antiycyclonic NPAC state. If the QBO either cycles back early (very unlikely) or tropical convective domain is altered thanks to the ongoing perturbation via SSW/NAM -> mass circulations/static stability, the Niño attempt will succeed and the west will experience a warmer than average summer under a cyclonic NPAC state.

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Phil, on 10 Feb 2017 - 1:50 PM, said:

We'll have the answer for summer sometime around the spring equinox. While the aforementioned progression favors an anticyclonic NPAC background state into summer with a downstream western trough, whether it continues depends on whether the PV/NAM breakdown (SSW) and subsequent state-reversal alters the underlying/low frequency tropical convective system, which currently remains under low frequency control of the +QBO. The SSW, or a major volcanic eruption, are the only thing capable of altering this global system state abruptly and permanently, with the last example of such an occurrence being January 2013. Not even the sun can do that so quickly.

 

If the QBO maintains its grip on the thermals and wave state, the developing Niño attempt will fail and the west will experience a cooler than average summer under -PNA and/or generally stronger antiycyclonic NPAC state. If the QBO either cycles back early (very unlikely) or tropical convective domain is altered thanks to the ongoing perturbation via SSW/NAM -> mass circulations/static stability, the Niño attempt will succeed and the west will experience a warmer than average summer under a cyclonic NPAC state.

 

Persistent LaNina-like summer troughs suppressed temps in 2011 making it one of the best summers in decades out here.

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Watch the second half of February. Could determine whether or not we enter a Niño regime next winter.

 

The coming trade wind surge will spike the thermocline and pile water in the WPAC. However, if it's followed by a WWB, that pile of water in the WPAC will slosh back eastward with additional inertia, producing a downwelling KW, warming the subsurface as a result.

 

If we avoid a WWB regime in mid/late February, I think we will avoid a moderate/strong Niño next winter.

WWB/MJO doing its dirty work, as expected.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

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So strong nino next winter? Nice.

We'll need to pull a rabbit out of the hat to accomplish a strong Niño. Very unlikely.

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I thought the WWB was the nail in the coffin?

I'm not sure what you're referring to? I never said anything about a strong Niño.

 

The WWB will help produce a downwelling OKW which *may* prime the Pacific for a Niño should the atmospheric circulations cooperate. Right now, the QBO/W-H cells are having none of it, but it's too early to make any proclamations here.

 

Doesn't mean we won't manage a +neutral, if the attempt fails, but even if it succeeds, will be very hard to obtain a strong Niño given the amount of wind stress forcing that'd need to be applied to the Pacific waters to slosh the thermocline slope back enough for a strong Niño.

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MJO shifting into Eastern Hemisphere is helping to strengthen the Walker Cell, resulting in subsidence over the Pacific and increased trade winds near the dateline. Many mets are discussings a possible fake out regarding the forcasted El Ninõ, so we'll see.

 

http://i.imgur.com/mvMPBf1.jpg

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I'm not sure it's a "fake-out", per se, but I highly doubt the moderate/strong Niño predictions being thrown out, for the moment at least. I'm leaning towards warm neutral or a weak El Niño, myself. Though, given what's going on w/ the QBO, it would not *shock* me if the bi-modal phase states get stuck in transition and we end up repeating a heavier Niño.

 

Regardless, I have to say that some of the trends I've seen lately, including the QBO cycle-lock, and the reversal in the background Hadley/Walker intensity ratio and B/H phase, are actually quite disturbing. This has all the markings of the preparations for a climate shift, and it looks like we're going to be caught flat-footed, as usual, in the prediction department.

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We'll need to pull a rabbit out of the hat to accomplish a strong Niño. Very unlikely.

That would almost assure a strong Nina the next winter. Mother Nature still owes us one to make up for the recent super Nino.

 

A 2006-07 type Nino could easily happen. The context will be almost exactly the same from a QBO / solar / Nina to Nino transition standpoint.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That would almost assure a strong Nina the next winter. Mother Nature still owes us one to make up for the recent super Nino.

 

A 2006-07 type Nino could easily happen. The context will be almost exactly the same from a QBO / solar / Nina to Nino transition standpoint.

I could see another 2006/07 type setup for sure. Some noteable similarities there.

 

Though I don't think Mother Nature owes anyone anything. She basically does what she wants, usually in blatant defiance of our predictions.

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I could see another 2006/07 type setup for sure. Some noteable similarities there.

 

Though I don't think Mother Nature owes anyone anything. She basically does what she wants, usually in blatant defiance of our predictions.

I'm still strongly leaning toward a significant Nina in 2018-19.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm still strongly leaning toward a significant Nina in 2018-19.

Interesting. Given solar wind/QBO, I'm leaning towards a significant El Niño in 2019/20. Not sure about 2018/19.

 

I could also see a scenario where 2017/18 hovers around neutral, 2018/19 goes weak niño, and 2019/20 goes strong niño, before the big multi-year niña in the early 2020s.

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Interesting. Given solar wind/QBO, I'm leaning towards a significant El Niño in 2019/20. Not sure about 2018/19.

 

I could also see a scenario where 2017/18 hovers around neutral, 2018/19 goes weak niño, and 2019/20 goes strong niño, before the big multi-year niña in the early 2020s.

So basically nothing but warm ENSO the next four years?

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"El Niño Modoki is associated with strong anomalous warming in the central tropical Pacific and cooling in the eastern and western tropical Pacific" http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

That's El Niño modoki. Think of La Niña modoki as the inverse.

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Those Indo/EPAC warm pools are reconsolidating, really a classic high-wavenumber/Niña-modoki Walker-Hadley setup. Good news for those wanting a troughy western summer.

 

Still have to watch the EPAC/IO going forward. If E-IO stays quiet, then gradual Niño development will occur.

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Phil, on 26 Feb 2017 - 09:57 AM, said:

Those Indo/EPAC warm pools are reconsolidating, really a classic high-wavenumber/Niña-modoki Walker-Hadley setup. Good news for those wanting a troughy western summer.

 

Still have to watch the EPAC/IO going forward. If E-IO stays quiet, then gradual Niño development will occur.

 

That is a very encouraging scenario and reminds me of 2011 w/ a wet March [5.81] and cool summer/ low evaporation.

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Since some people get too attached to SSTs (looking at you Tim), thought I'd share this

 

This does make me wonder if Mother Nature might surprise us. As I've said before it would be unprecedented to have a Nino so soon after a super Nino.

 

That graphic is quite fascinating considering what the SST's have done.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This does make me wonder if Mother Nature might surprise us. As I've said before it would be unprecedented to have a Nino so soon after a super Nino.

 

That graphic is quite fascinating considering what the SST's have done.

As long as the Nina forcing holds and the thermocline remains lifted, an aborted event is possible

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This does make me wonder if Mother Nature might surprise us. As I've said before it would be unprecedented to have a Nino so soon after a super Nino.

 

That graphic is quite fascinating considering what the SST's have done.

I wouldn't say unprecedented. It's happened before, just not in the modern era.

 

Could also end up with a weak niño or warm neutral.

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CFS is backing way off on the Nino...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I predict neutral neither cold or warm

I think neutral would probably be quite good for us next winter. No reason to think there won't be some carry over of cold into next season if we stay away from a major Nino.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard, on 09 Mar 2017 - 10:02 PM, said:

I think neutral would probably be quite good for us next winter. No reason to think there won't be some carry over of cold into next season if we stay away from a major Nino.

 

Considering this year's ENSO [whatever it is], do you think "neutral" would produce another wet winter in California?

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Considering this year's ENSO [whatever it is], do you think "neutral" would produce another wet winter in California?

Very good chance. The weather has shown a propensity for getting stuck in ruts in recent years. It would be surprising to go back to what we were having before this winter any time soon.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

I'm leaning neutral still. The modoki niña Walker/Hadley Cell ratio isn't something you typically see preceding a Niño, so I'm skeptical we manage anything more than a weak Niño next winter.

 

Also, the aforementioned modoki Niña circulation does favor a warm season anticyclonic train/western trough during M/J/J.

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I'm leaning neutral still. The modoki niña Walker/Hadley Cell ratio isn't something you typically see preceding a Niño, so I'm skeptical we manage anything more than a weak Niño next winter.

 

Also, the aforementioned modoki Niña circulation does favor a warm season anticyclonic train/western trough during M/J/J.

This is great news!

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So basically nothing but warm ENSO the next four years?

That sure seems like a remote possibility given the extreme deep solar minimum we will be in. Even warm neutral / weak Nino would be fine for us next winter though give the context. Next winter the QBO will actually more favorable for us if we do have weak warm ENSO. Very 2006-07 esque. Then we will be in positive QBO again for 2018-19 when cold ENSO is pretty likely if we are warmish next winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Could Leftover Heat from the Last El Niño Fuel a New One? https://www.wunderground.com/news/heat-el-nino-new-2017?__prclt=eGTmMPXs

A Niño is certainly possible, perhaps likely if the EPAC convection strengthens further, but I don't think it has anything to due with "leftover heat".

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Phil, on 21 Mar 2017 - 11:04 AM, said:

A Niño is certainly possible, perhaps likely if the EPAC convection strengthens further, but I don't think it has anything to due with "leftover heat".

 

ENSO 1 & 2 are really running warm w/ considerable flooding in Peru.

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ENSO 1 & 2 are really running warm w/ considerable flooding in Peru.

Yes, and there's a reason the EPAC is on fire. It's the same process responsible for the cool/quiet IO.

 

Going to be a very weak IO monsoon this year.

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