ENSO Discussion

[Phil]

While the UAH adjustments are generally less frequent than the surface data, when they're adjusted, the changes are pretty substantial... The latest UAH adjustment was on the order of 0.2-0.3C globally, which blows the surface adjustments out of the water

Yeah, you have a point there. The last two UAH adjustments were very large (one was for degradation of the AQUA radiometer, whole the other for orbital drift (and many other factors). That having been said, the UAHv6 adjustment was truly revolutionary in many ways, and is a demonstrable improvement over UAHv5.6.

 

It could be that the satellite folks underestimate their structural uncertainties just like the surface data folks seem to do, because in the long run, they surface & satellite datasets have been adjusted almost equally.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Speaking of the CFSv2. It is trending much weaker with the potential Nino. 

[Phil]

Is this another "coincidence"? So, as we're currently observing the largest seasonal Greenland ice gain on record for the 21st century, suddenly the DMI has changed its reference period from 1990-2013 to 1981-2010. This eliminates the big 2011/12 melt year, and brings the mass balance average up substantially.

 

 

If a scientific theory is sound, you shouldn't have to statistically manipulate your data to prove it. These warmists have shown that when they (eventually) go down, they'll do so kicking and screaming.

[Phil]

Let's look at the tropical convective behavior during the last multidecadal -NAM/-SAM regime (polar blocking), which lasted from 1948-78. This was also a period of global cooling. Note how the equatorial Pacific convection is stronger relative to the IO/Indo domain and the South American domain, with the strongest lift centered over the dateline:

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/33B2330F-D96D-48D4-833F-5B0DEE90CA28_zpsa13alon6.png

 

Now let's look at the last 30 years, which represents a multidecadal +NAM/+SAM regime, under global warming. The complete opposite signature arises, with notably reduced Pacific convection and invigorated IO/Indo/South American convection overall, especially during their monsoonal states:

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/83A3B1FB-5F23-4348-AB63-2CAD585A2A13_zps7kzxj1qp.png

 

This indirectly confirms the idea that net heat absorption occurs under the +NAM/dateline subsidence regime, and that net heat release occurs under the -NAM/dateline convection regime.

 

This also makes sense in theory, because the +NAM is marked by a decline in tropical convection and reduced overall wind speeds from 65N to 60S, which reduces evaporative cooling of the tropical oceans, hence also reducing subsequent latent heat release aloft during convection. This also reduces tropical cloud cover. The opposite occurs during the -NAM/-SAM regime, which is marked by an increase in tropical wind speeds, convection, evaporative cooling of the oceans, latent heat release, and overall tropical cloud cover.

[Phil]

This also (theoretically) explains the signature(s) noted in the paleoclimate data, which depicts increased tropical Pacific convection and strong polar blocking during periods of global cooling, and reduced tropical Pacific convection and strong polar vortices during periods of global warming.

 

It also explains the weakened IO/Indo and S-American monsoons during periods of global cooling, and visa-versa during periods of global warming.

[Guest happ]

Let's look at the tropical convective behavior during the last multidecadal -NAM/-SAM regime (polar blocking), which lasted from 1948-78. This was also a period of global cooling. Note how the equatorial Pacific convection is stronger relative to the IO/Indo domain and the South American domain, with the strongest lift centered over the dateline:

 

Now let's look at the last 30 years, which represents a multidecadal +NAM/+SAM regime, under global warming. The complete opposite signature arises, with notably reduced Pacific convection and invigorated IO/Indo/South American convection overall, especially during their monsoonal states:

 

This indirectly confirms the idea that net heat absorption occurs under the +NAM/dateline subsidence regime, and that net heat release occurs under the -NAM/dateline convection regime.

 

This also makes sense in theory, because the +NAM is marked by a decline in tropical convection and reduced overall wind speeds from 65N to 60S, which reduces evaporative cooling of the tropical oceans, hence also reducing subsequent latent heat release aloft during convection. This also reduces tropical cloud cover. The opposite occurs during the -NAM/-SAM regime, which is marked by an increase in tropical wind speeds, convection, evaporative cooling of the oceans, latent heat release, and overall tropical cloud cover.

 

Our scientist in residence   

[Phil]

[Guest happ]

Phil, are you in graduate school?  

[Phil]

Phil, are you in graduate school?

Ha, I wish, but not yet. I won't start the MS/PHD process until approximately 18 months from now, since I completely changed my major early last year.

[Guest happ]

Lol, thanks. Once a nerd, always a nerd.

 

I think this would be of particular interest to you, given the tendency for a strong subtropical jet and a wet SW US during episodes of global cooling. Perhaps the pseudo Niño Pacific background state is the legitimate mode of operation during these periods?

 

Interesting food for thought there..

I would be thrilled if cooling is possible.

[Phil]

I would be thrilled if cooling is possible.

Well, if you're interested in following tropical convection, then tropical tidbits is a great website. The greens are indicative of enhanced convection, the oranges are indicative of reduced convection: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2017042812&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

It's also notable that the dateline low frequency regime has slowly started to shift since 2012, with IO subsidence increasing in frequency over the last decade, relative to the dateline. The Atlantic has also begun to leave its multidecadal warm state, but that process has also been slow and non-linear.

[Phil]

Changes are afoot in the tropical circulations. Westerly anomalies are now propagating over the IPWP/Maritime domain.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[Jesse]

Changes are afoot in the tropical circulations. Westerly anomalies are now propagating over the IPWP/Maritime domain.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

Is this a Niño-ish signature or no?

[Phil]

Is this a Niño-ish signature or no?

Yeah, it's definitely more Niño-like. A solid swing in the IO circulation as well, with the easterlies at 60E.

[Jesse]

Yeah, it's definitely more Niño-like. A solid swing in the IO circulation as well, with the easterlies at 60E.

 

That's a shame.

[Phil]

That's a shame.

There's no guarantee that it locks in and/or represents a new background state. For the moment it looks intraseasonal.

[Jesse]

There's no guarantee that it locks in and/or represents a new background state. For the moment it looks intraseasonal.

 

That's good. Whatever it takes to avoid going back to the 2014-16 background state.

 

Although it sounds like you think that even if we do end up with a Nino, it will be different than recent ones.

[Phil]

That's good. Whatever it takes to avoid going back to the 2014-16 background state.

 

Although it sounds like you think that even if we do end up with a Nino, it will be different than recent ones.

Yeah, this isn't anything like 2014 or 2015. Both of those years were beastly with the IO convection. This year is exactly the opposite in that regard.

[Jesse]

Yeah, this isn't anything like 2014 or 2015. Both of those years were beastly with the IO convection. This year is exactly the opposite in that regard.

 

When was the last Nino year with this kind of tropical convective state?

[Phil]

When was the last Nino year with this kind of tropical convective state?

The most recent examples I can find are the early 1990s. In particular, there's some similarity to 1980, 1991, 1993...and that's about it for the satellite era.

 

Also, just to compare this year with 2014 and 2015, the differences couldn't be more enormous across the tropical eastern hemisphere. Much less IO/Indo convection this year along with cooling in the high latitudes, both of which are affecting the wavetrain.

 

Today:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.4.27.2017.gif

 

2014:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.28.2014.gif

 

2015:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.4.27.2015.gif

[Dan the Weatherman]

The most recent examples I can find are the early 1990s. In particular, there's some similarity to 1980, 1991, 1993...and that's about it for the satellite era.

 

Also, just to compare this year with 2014 and 2015, the differences couldn't be more enormous across the tropical eastern hemisphere. Much less IO/Indo convection this year along with cooling in the high latitudes, both of which are affecting the wavetrain.

 

Today:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.4.27.2017.gif

 

2014:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.28.2014.gif

 

2015:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.4.27.2015.gif

 

It appears as if having the contrast of somewhat cooler than average water in the northeast Pacific and warmer water in the lower latitudes of the eastern Pacific helps lead to a more active mid-latitude jet stream pattern with more frequent and stronger Pacific storms, whereas the abnormal warmth in the northeast Pacific during 2014 and 2015 led to an ultra-dominant stable high pressure pattern that contributed mightily to the drought in CA.

 

I am hoping this SST pattern continues into the future and that we don't revert back to a 2014-2015 SST pattern anytime soon!

[Phil]

It appears as if having the contrast of somewhat cooler than average water in the northeast Pacific and warmer water in the lower latitudes of the eastern Pacific helps lead to a more active mid-latitude jet stream pattern with more frequent and stronger Pacific storms, whereas the abnormal warmth in the northeast Pacific during 2014 and 2015 led to an ultra-dominant stable high pressure pattern that contributed mightily to the drought in CA.

 

I am hoping this SST pattern continues into the future and that we don't revert back to a 2014-2015 SST pattern anytime soon!

I'd consider the cooler NPAC (and high latitudes in general) as more of an effect than a cause of the pattern. I'd argue the cause is a combination of reduced IO convection relative to the WHEM and a slew of upper atmospheric processes.

[Phil]

Big WWB upcoming, along with a shift in the global tropical circulation.

 

This will warm the IO, cool the Indo-China/W-IPWP, and possibly force an oceanic Kelvin wave if it persists long enough. If this wave cycles in under 20 days, then it'll probably fail to ignite the move to El Niño.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[Guest happ]

http://stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/current.shtml

"Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: As of 4/28 a weak Active MJO pattern was in effect over the KWGA. The statistic model projects it fading and gone 2 weeks out with a weak Inactive Phase fading over the Maritime Continent and tracking east into the West Pacific. The dynamic model depicts a weakly Active pattern holding for the next 15 days with the Inactive Phase building in the Indian Ocean but confined there. All this suggest that the previous pattern of the Inactive Phase of the MJO constructively integrating with the remains of La Nina appears to be faded out and a neutral ENSO Pattern taking hold. 
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (4/29) The ECMF model indicates the Active Phase of the MJO was very weak over the East Pacific and is forecast to build some then tracking east into the Atlantic over the next 2 weeks. The GEFS model depicts the same thing initially but with the Active Phase holding position over the East to Central Pacific. This model runs about a week ahead of what occurs down at the surface. 
40 day Upper Level Model: (4/29) This model depicts a weak Active Pattern was over the West Pacific. It is to track east into Central America 5/9. A moderate Inactive Phase to set up in the west 5/5 and is to track east to Central America 5/25. A moderate Active pattern to follow in the West Pacific 5/19 tracking east to the East Pacific through 6/8 and beyond. This model runs about 2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface. 
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (4/29) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was fading over the KWGA with weak west winds anomalies in play. Beyond the Active Phase is to ease east and pulse again 5/15 with a possible Westerly Wind Burst on the dateline 5/7-5/15 attributable to an Equatorial Rossby Wave. The Inactive Phase is to move in 5/22-6/8 with neutral wind anomalies setting up. After that the Active Phase is to start taking control on 6/10 with light west anomalies building holding through the end of the run on 7/26. The low pass filter indicates La Nina is to be gone on 5/13 (previously 5/6-5/8) with El Nino taking hold 5/30, (previously 5/16-5/22) but much weaker than previously forecast. In fact, latest long range runs from the CFS suggest this to only be a weak Modoki event. That actually makes more sense given the weak warm water reservoir in the West Pacific.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc

[Phil]

Big time EPAC WWB upcoming later this week, but trades persisting @ the dateline. Should reinforce the weaker zonal SSTA gradient across the equatorial Pacific, but the easterlies developing over the IO are new and suggest a warming trend there.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[Front Ranger]

Moderate Nino (ONI peak trimonthlies +1.0 to +1.4) looks like most likely outcome to me.

[Phil]

Moderate Nino (ONI peak trimonthlies +1.0 to +1.4) looks like most likely outcome to me.

Really? That's a ballsy call. I'm leaning warm neutral or weak Niño. The tropical forcing/Walker Cell becomes Niña-like again during the second half of May, as the MJO wave cycles and convection returns to 120E/Indo:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/475451D0-F175-4175-876E-7BA9A6F4E472_zpsqfslddi5.jpg

[Front Ranger]

Really? That's a ballsy call. I'm leaning warm neutral or weak Niño. 

 

I'm mainly just looking at what's historically most likely based on ENSO progression to this point.

[Phil]

Dateline subsidence, IO subsidence, Indonesian convection, Atlantic convection, South American convection. #lolwut

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E77D452B-89F5-424D-A9F6-621CE4C3E144_zpshgmuiseq.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS not so bullish on a Nino any longer. Showing warm neutral. 

[TT-SEA]

CFS not so bullish on a Nino any longer. Showing warm neutral. 

 

Very nice.   The last Nino was an ugly mess of rain.

 

Warm neutral is probably perfect.  

[Jesse]

CFS not so bullish on a Nino any longer. Showing warm neutral.

Tim's gotta be pissed.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim's gotta be pissed.

Cue the 1951 references.

[TT-SEA]

Tim's gotta be pissed.

 

See above.   I would love to stay as close to neutral as possible.

[Jesse]

See above. I would love to stay as close to neutral as possible.

Not with that attitide. Drink the orange seawater kool-aid!

[TT-SEA]

Not with that attitide. Drink the orange seawater kool-aid!

Troll.

[Jesse]

Troll.

#can'ttakeajoke

[TT-SEA]

#can'ttakeajoke

 

Called trolling.

[Front Ranger]

Joking and trolling are not mutually exclusive.

[Phil]

Some EPAC warming upcoming:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif