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La Nina Watch

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#1001
seattleweatherguy

Posted 03 October 2017 - 03:04 PM

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I hope so, since neutral was my original call. :P


Cold neutral or neutral means more widely storms! At least better chance for notable ones.

#1002
Phil

Posted 03 October 2017 - 03:07 PM

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At the same time, 5/1 - 7/31 was pretty darn close to average west of the Cascades. Within a degree or so.

The big heat waited until August and September, which was no surprise to me.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1003
Front Ranger

Posted 03 October 2017 - 03:07 PM

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Yeah, pretty much average west of the Cascades, warm/hot along/east of the Cascades.

Jul17TDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

Every single major I-5 station (BLI, SEA, Seattle WFO, OLM, PDX, SLE, EUG) was above normal in July.

 

It was the coolest month of a warm summer, but it was still a warm month. Looking at the PNW overall, it was obviously considerably warmer for parts of the region a bit further east...and that kind of detail is impossible to forecast long range.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1004
Phil

Posted 03 October 2017 - 03:14 PM

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Every single major I-5 station (BLI, SEA, Seattle WFO, OLM, PDX, SLE, EUG) was above normal in July.


They finished very close to average, though. Several stations finished below average, actually.

So my statement is correct.

Jul17TDeptWRCC-NWd.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1005
Phil

Posted 03 October 2017 - 03:17 PM

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It was the coolest month of a warm summer, but it was still a warm month. Looking at the PNW overall, it was obviously considerably warmer for parts of the region a bit further east...and that kind of detail is impossible to forecast long range.


I wasn't bashing your summer forecast, dude.

Relax. 😎
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1006
Front Ranger

Posted 03 October 2017 - 03:20 PM

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They finished close to average, though. Several stations finished below average, actually.

So my statement is correct.

Jul17TDeptWRCC-NWd.png


A lot more above normal stations than below normal throughout the PNW.

Smaller variances aside, July fit into the large scale dominant pattern that persisted from mid May to mid September.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1007
Phil

Posted 03 October 2017 - 03:33 PM

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A lot more above normal stations than below normal throughout the PNW.


Okay, but it was very close to average on the westside. Actually below average in some coastal areas.

So again, my original statement was accurate.

Smaller variances aside, July fit into the large scale dominant pattern that persisted from mid May to mid September.


Did I suggest otherwise?
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1008
wx_statman

Posted 03 October 2017 - 03:45 PM

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Actually the exact opposite. The -QBO cycled in much faster than expected, which tightened the Walker Cell faster, but didn't provide enough time for the WPAC to cool/ventilate through evaporative feedback once the warm waters left the EPAC. So we were left with a huge WPAC Hadley Cell, and a residual +SIOD/+IOD (enhanced W-IO convection), under a -QBO base state, which is more reflective of an extremely west-based El Niño, if anything.

It wasn't until sometime in April that I saw what was happening, and even then I thought the warmth would wait until August. The majority of the heat did hold off until August, however it was such a rapid transition that it caught me napping with regards to the evolution of the June/July wavetrain.

This was actually the fastest -QBO frontal cycle since 1960.

 

I wonder if the QBO is still feeling the shakeup from 2015-16? 

 

http://www.sciencejo...rch_letters.pdf



#1009
Phil

Posted 03 October 2017 - 03:49 PM

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I wonder if the QBO is still feeling the shakeup from 2015-16?

http://www.sciencejo...rch_letters.pdf


Interesting take. I wonder.

As far as I know, it's still debatable as to why the QBO skipped a beat last summer. There are a number of competing theories, but very few answers so far. It was definitely an anomalous event though, going back (at least) to the 1950s.

http://www.geo.fu-be...bo_wind_pdf.pdf
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1010
Front Ranger

Posted 03 October 2017 - 04:08 PM

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Okay, but it was very close to average on the westside. Actually below average in some coastal areas.

So again, my original statement was accurate.


Did I suggest otherwise?


Well, why are you trying to prove it was a near average month in some places? It was clearly above normal overall for the region, the large scale pattern was quite similar to the rest of the summer, so I guess I don't understand what your point is.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1011
Phil

Posted 03 October 2017 - 04:33 PM

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Well, why are you trying to prove it was a near average month in some places? It was clearly above normal overall for the region, the large scale pattern was quite similar to the rest of the summer, so I guess I don't understand what your point is.


Huh? I was responding to Tim, and his analysis of the month being "nice" west of the Cascades. So, to supplement his analysis, I pointed out the fact it was an average to cooler than average month near the coast, with plenty of diurnal variability.

Everything I stated was factual. So, why you decided to argue and take the conversation out of context, I'm not sure.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1012
Front Ranger

Posted 03 October 2017 - 07:29 PM

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Huh? I was responding to Tim, and his analysis of the month being "nice" west of the Cascades. So, to supplement his analysis, I pointed out the fact it was an average to cooler than average month near the coast, with plenty of diurnal variability.

Everything I stated was factual. So, why you decided to argue and take the conversation out of context, I'm not sure.

 

Everything I stated was factual as well. Wasn't arguing with you, was simply providing broader context.  :)

 

You had previously tried to argue that July wasn't really above normal in the PNW due to some cooler areas near the coast, so it seemed you were going that direction again.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1013
Phil

Posted 03 October 2017 - 08:47 PM

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Omg. Whatever dude. I digress.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1014
TT-SEA

Posted 04 October 2017 - 11:25 AM

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Warming continues... big changes in the ENSO region.  Does not even look much like a Nina now.  

 

Last 7 days...

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

nino34.png



#1015
ShawniganLake

Posted 04 October 2017 - 12:11 PM

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Warming continues... big changes in the ENSO region. Does not even look much like a Nina now.

Last 7 days...

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

nino34.png

I would bet the CFS is being way to aggressive with its moderate/strong Nina forecast.

#1016
Phil

Posted 04 October 2017 - 01:14 PM

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IMO, it's important to keep in mind that this warming is only intraseasonal, and that cooling will resume sometime next week as convection enters the maritime domain.

Still, this definitely doesn't look like a healthy La Niña right now..the fact that a modest MJO wave can almost completely mask the background state speaks to that fact.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1017
snow_wizard

Posted 04 October 2017 - 09:07 PM

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IMO, it's important to keep in mind that this warming is only intraseasonal, and that cooling will resume sometime next week as convection enters the maritime domain.

Still, this definitely doesn't look like a healthy La Niña right now..the fact that a modest MJO wave can almost completely mask the background state speaks to that fact.

 

This behavior could end up being good news for us.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#1018
Phil

Posted 04 October 2017 - 11:22 PM

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This behavior could end up being good news for us.


I agree. Stronger Niñas under -QBO tend to be zonal/+EPO dominated, like 2007/08 and 1998/99.

Most of the cold/blocky -ENSO/-QBO winters had trimonthly ONIs between -0.5 and -1.0.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1019
Geos

Posted 06 October 2017 - 02:38 PM

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Looks like some upwelling/cooling of waters along the CA, OR and WA coast the last 7 days. 

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png


  • Jesse likes this

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

Total moisture 2017: 30.41", 10/19

Season low so far: 33°, 10/14

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 0.0"


 


#1020
Phil

Posted 06 October 2017 - 11:12 PM

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IMO, it's important to keep in mind that this warming is only intraseasonal, and that cooling will resume sometime next week as convection enters the maritime domain.


Here comes the next round of trades:

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif
  • Black Hole likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1021
snow_wizard

Posted 08 October 2017 - 09:12 PM

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Here comes the next round of trades:

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

 

Very robust it would appear.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#1022
Geos

Posted 09 October 2017 - 08:46 AM

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Cooling off again.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

Especially in the eastern equatorial Pacific.

 

nino12.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

Total moisture 2017: 30.41", 10/19

Season low so far: 33°, 10/14

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 0.0"


 


#1023
Phil

Posted 09 October 2017 - 09:49 AM

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Global SST anomaly is finally coming down as well. That's mostly QBO driven at this point through enhanced equatorward trades over the WPAC warm pool (evaporative feedback), though I guess that's technically a component of the ENSO system as well, so they're kind of two branches of the same tree in this case.

global.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1024
Phil

Posted 09 October 2017 - 10:10 AM

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The fact we're seeing this SSTA cooling during a +NAM speaks to the outrageous SST warmth following that double +QBO and super niño. It's just not sustainable anymore with the -QBO and 0.67W/m^2 decline in surface-averaged solar radiation (since 2014). The OLWR anomaly has been through the roof since 2014/15, almost 2SD's above the 1990-2010 mean close to 1.7W/m^2 above the baseline according to CERES). So we've radiated a lot of heat into space during recent years.

If we have a -NAM winter, there's going to be quite a significant SSTA drop in the tropics, given -NAM --> strong tropical convection.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1025
seattleweatherguy

Posted 09 October 2017 - 10:41 AM

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The fact we're seeing this SSTA cooling during a +NAM speaks to the outrageous SST warmth following that double +QBO and super niño. It's just not sustainable anymore with the -QBO and 0.67W/m^2 decline in surface-averaged solar radiation (since 2014). The OLWR anomaly has been through the roof since 2014/15, almost 2SD's above the 1990-2010 mean close to 1.7W/m^2 above the baseline according to CERES). So we've radiated a lot of heat into space during recent years.

If we have a -NAM winter, there's going to be quite a significant SSTA drop in the tropics, given -NAM --> strong tropical convection.


Is any of that good for the pnw?

#1026
Phil

Posted 09 October 2017 - 11:13 AM

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Is any of that good for the pnw?


Yes, it's good news in that the IPWP/WPAC warm pool will be retracting over the next several years, and with it, so will the annular modes (AO/AAO) and global temperature anomaly.

Longer term (decadal or sub-decadal) NAM regimes tend to terminate abruptly (usually over a period of one year), so it could be the NAM goes negative following a SSW event either this winter or next, and we don't look back for several years.

The global temperature decline looks to continue at the same modest/steady pace observed over the last 13 months, until a sharper drop in the early 2020s (after the Niño of 2019/20). This drop looks structurally analogous to the upward step-change following the 1997/98 super Niño, just inverted (obviously).

Or, at least this is my opinion. Whether it holds true remains to be seen. If/when Agung erupts, it could affect the ENSO progression somewhat.
  • Geos likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1027
TT-SEA

Posted 12 October 2017 - 12:58 PM

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Nina region cooling again as Phil expected...

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png


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#1028
DareDuck

Posted 12 October 2017 - 02:22 PM

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Also nice to see the NE PAC cooling off too.


Bend, OR Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow history:

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

 

Average: ~25"


#1029
Front Ranger

Posted 12 October 2017 - 02:44 PM

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PDO-dropping there for sure, too.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1030
Geos

Posted 12 October 2017 - 02:46 PM

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Also nice to see the NE PAC cooling off too.

 

Let's put that region in the freezer!  :D


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

Total moisture 2017: 30.41", 10/19

Season low so far: 33°, 10/14

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 0.0"


 


#1031
Phil

Posted 13 October 2017 - 10:30 PM

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Behemoth trade wind bust upcoming with this MJO wave.

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif
  • luminen likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1032
TT-SEA

Posted 13 October 2017 - 10:48 PM

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Behemoth trade wind bust upcoming with this MJO wave.
 

 

What does that mean?



#1033
ShawniganLake

Posted 13 October 2017 - 10:54 PM

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What does that mean?

Cooling near the equator

#1034
snow_wizard

Posted 15 October 2017 - 09:56 PM

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That trade wind burst that is about to commence looks EPIC.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#1035
crf450ish

Posted 16 October 2017 - 05:31 AM

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LmDAaDo.jpg

#1036
Geos

Posted 16 October 2017 - 09:58 AM

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NE Pacific continues to cool...

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png
 


  • Jesse and stuffradio like this

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

Total moisture 2017: 30.41", 10/19

Season low so far: 33°, 10/14

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 0.0"


 


#1037
Front Ranger

Posted 16 October 2017 - 10:09 AM

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Looks like the September PDO number popped back up to +.32. Not too surprising, considering the pattern the first half of the month. 

 

However, big changes this month...I'm sure the PDO is currently in negative territory, we'll see if it maintains that way long enough to produce the first -PDO month since 2013.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1038
Phil

Posted 16 October 2017 - 10:21 AM

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The daily PDO number is well negative. Looks to average negative for the month of October unless the +PNA later in the month is enough to promote subsurface reemergence of the +PDO signature.
  • Geos likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1039
Eujunga

Posted 17 October 2017 - 08:07 PM

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Niña Schmeeña:  Downtown L.A. is already averaging a +3.6 departure for the month.  With the epic heatwave forecast for next week, it seems likely that a new warmest October monthly average record will be set -- just 2 years after the current record was set during a raging Niño.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#1040
snow_wizard

Posted 19 October 2017 - 06:51 PM

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Niña Schmeeña:  Downtown L.A. is already averaging a +3.6 departure for the month.  With the epic heatwave forecast for next week, it seems likely that a new warmest October monthly average record will be set -- just 2 years after the current record was set during a raging Niño.

 

Yuck.  That is really surprising considering how cool it's been up here.  Very tight N to S anomaly gradient.  That could bode well for some big rains in CA this winter.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#1041
Phil

Posted 19 October 2017 - 09:46 PM

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This MJO wave looks strong enough to force a WWB, perhaps as soon as the last week of the month.

Question is, will the WWB be strong enough to force an oceanic Kelvin Wave?
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1042
westcoastexpat

Posted 20 October 2017 - 02:16 AM

westcoastexpat

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It is being remembered as a warm summer... but July was almost normal and one of the most perfect summer month possible around here.  

 

July was absolute perfection. Cloudless, mild, sea breeze, beer... heaven :)

 

Then August hit and I wanted to die.



#1043
ShawniganLake

Posted 20 October 2017 - 07:13 AM

ShawniganLake

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July was absolute perfection. Cloudless, mild, sea breeze, beer... heaven :)

Then August hit and I wanted to die.

Are you on the west coast year round now. I thought you were back east in previous summers.

#1044
westcoastexpat

Posted 20 October 2017 - 07:37 AM

westcoastexpat

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Are you on the west coast year round now. I thought you were back east in previous summers.


Yes :)
  • ShawniganLake likes this

#1045
snow_wizard

Posted Yesterday, 06:34 PM

snow_wizard

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Looks like we have a robust Nina and a negative PDO now.  It took a long time for the North Pacific to finally reconfigure.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#1046
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Yesterday, 06:43 PM

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Looks like we have a robust Nina and a negative PDO now.  It took a long time for the North Pacific to finally reconfigure.

 

Looking good, just a waiting game for our first blast in the coming weeks. I hear Nov week 2 is looking like the first possibility?



#1047
Phil

Posted Yesterday, 07:19 PM

Phil

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Should be a WWB/ENSO warming later this week thanks to the eastward propagation of the MJO.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1048
snow_wizard

Posted Yesterday, 11:34 PM

snow_wizard

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Should be a WWB/ENSO warming later this week thanks to the eastward propagation of the MJO.

 

Looks like a classic two steps forward one step back regime on the Nina this season.  Plenty of room for it to warm after the big drop in the past week.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0