ENSO Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OMG

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

[snow_wizard]

OMG

 

 

Incredible!  All models were showing at least a weak Nino a few months ago.  This is the biggest ENSO model bust I've ever seen.  Possibly the whackiest SST progression on record.  From weak Nina, to weak Nino, back to Nina in about half a year.

[Geos]

Wow, she's tanking now.

 

[Front Ranger]

I don't think anyone expected this to go moderate Nina. Busts all around!

[snow_wizard]

Another interesting thing about this switch to cold ENSO, at least thus far is the unimpressive SOI.  At this point the SOI* (pressure difference between the West Coast of South America and Darwin) has been the big driver of this.  It has been sky high while the regular SOI has been neutral.  Historically speaking that can be a good sign for us if you want a blocky La Nina winter as opposed to a raging PJ.  It will be interesting to see if it continues.

[snow_wizard]

Wow, she's tanking now.

 

 

Good lord!  -0.9 and we are just now entering a huge trade wind burst.  This could go strong.

[Phil]

I don't think anyone expected this to go moderate Nina. Busts all around!

I think it'll be a weak La Niña by the official definition.

 

At least I didn't forecast a moderate El Niño.

[Front Ranger]

I think it'll be a weak La Niña by the official definition.

 

At least I didn't forecast a moderate El Niño.

For the record, you were still going +ENSO at the time I made that Nino comment.

[Phil]

Well, this was a pretty good call, if I do say so myself.

 

So if this continues, I think there should be another push towards western heat/ridging in early September, assuming we're following the same MJO/intraseasonal periodicity observed since May?

[Geos]

Good lord! -0.9 and we are just now entering a huge trade wind burst. This could go strong.

Yeah I think it could bottom out at -1.5 later this autumn. Interesting watching this unfolding.

[Geos]

Almost down to -1.0 now.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Almost down to -1.0 now.

 

 

Wow. 

[BLI snowman]

I'm definitely feeling a lot of mountain and lowland snow this year. Not so much for the foothills though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm definitely feeling a lot of mountain and lowland snow this year. Not so much for the foothills though.

 

Burnnnneeddddd

[Black Hole]

Subsurface is quite cold at this point, any additional upwelling will allow for continued temperature drops. 

[Guest happ]

 

"Winter is coming’: What do climate scientists predict for California?"http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/09/11/winter-is-coming-what-do-climate-scientists-predict-for-california/

 

[Phil]

"Winter is coming’: What do climate scientists predict for California?"http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/09/11/winter-is-coming-what-do-climate-scientists-predict-for-california/

The SW US drought probably already peaked. The Pacific Hadley Cell has contracted equatorward since 2014/15, and has done so quite consistently, once you account for ENSO and other intraseasonal influences. Some of this is a result of declining solar forcing as we approach solar minimum, however there is a longer term, multidecadal cycle now underway, as we're *already* back to the Hadley Cell latitude observed at the depth of the last solar minimum.

 

Obviously, from the perspective of the last 400 years, we're still in an anomalous expanded Hadley Cell/+NAM system state, but we're definitely seeing the tide change now. So I would definitely anticipate a more equatorward jet stream and -NAM to be the theme over the next several years, which favors a wetter regime in the SW US.

[TT-SEA]

The SW US drought probably already peaked. The Pacific Hadley Cell has contracted equatorward since 2014/15, and has done so quite consistently, once you account for ENSO and other intraseasonal influences. Some of this is a result of declining solar forcing as we approach solar minimum, however there is a longer term, multidecadal cycle now underway, as we're *already* back to the Hadley Cell latitude observed at the depth of the last solar minimum.

 

Obviously, from the perspective of the last 400 years, we're still in an anomalous expanded Hadley Cell/+NAM system state, but we're definitely seeing the tide change now. So I would definitely anticipate a more equatorward jet stream and -NAM to be the theme over the next several years, which favors a wetter regime in the SW US.

I sure hope this is right... we have more opportunities for nice weather and snowy/cold weather up here when CA is taking the brunt of the Pacific energy.

[Phil]

I sure hope this is right... we have more opportunities for nice weather and snowy/cold weather up here when CA is taking the brunt of the Pacific energy.

Yeah, question is will it continue? And if so, will it continue at this relatively swift pace?

 

I obviously think it will continue, but I'm not sure exactly how quickly the transition will happen. As of now, I think we should be back into 1960s-esque circulation and climate by the middle of the 2020s, following the multi-year La Niña in the early 2020s, and by the middle 2040s, I'm thinking we'll be in a circulation and climate regime reminiscent of the early/mid 1800s, at least.

 

This is a bit more bullish than I was thinking before, but I'm liking what I'm seeing so far.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, question is will it continue? And if so, will it continue at this relatively swift pace?

 

I obviously think it will continue, but I'm not sure exactly how quickly the transition will happen. As of now, I think we should be back into 1960s-esque circulation and climate by the middle of the 2020s, following the multi-year La Niña in the early 2020s, and by the middle 2030s I'm thinking we'll be in a circulation and climate regime reminiscent of the early/mid 1800s, at least.

 

This is a bit more bullish than I was thinking before, but I'm liking what I'm seeing so far.

OK Phil.

 

20 year forecasts now.

[Phil]

OK Phil. 20 year forecasts now.

I'm very confident in the ENSO progression over the next five years or so. Solar forcing on the IPWP is a great subdecadal predictor of the ENSO tendency. The toughest ENSO predictions are during the solar maximum and years immediately following, because the exact nature and timing of the solar maximum matters a great deal.

 

As for the longer term prediction, while the specifics hinge on a repeat of a Dalton-caliber solar minimum, at least, the progression of the climate system over the last 40 years is a truly remarkable match to the ending stage of the previous low frequency warm phase (MWP) using all available proxy data, and the last 15yrs are also amazingly analogous to the close of the previous higher frequency warming period (late 1930s and 1940s).

[TT-SEA]

I'm very confident in the ENSO progression over the next five years or so. Solar forcing on the IPWP is a great subdecadal predictor of the ENSO tendency. The toughest ENSO predictions are during the solar maximum and years immediately following, because the exact nature and timing of the solar maximum matters a great deal.

 

As for the longer term prediction, while the specifics hinge on a repeat of a Dalton-caliber solar minimum, at least, the progression of the climate system over the last 40 years is a truly remarkable match to the ending stage of the previous low frequency warm phase (MWP) using all available proxy data, and the last 15yrs are also amazingly analogous to the close of the previous higher frequency warming period (late 1930s and 1940s).

 

Something will change... it always does.   Particularly when looking 20 years out.  

[Phil]

Something will change... it always does. Particularly when looking 20 years out.

Things can/will change, of course. These changes may not substantially alter the big picture, though.

[Geos]

Subsurface is quite cold at this point, any additional upwelling will allow for continued temperature drops. 

 

Graphic for that.

 

[ShawniganLake]

I'm very confident in the ENSO progression over the next five years or so. Solar forcing on the IPWP is a great subdecadal predictor of the ENSO tendency. The toughest ENSO predictions are during the solar maximum and years immediately following, because the exact nature and timing of the solar maximum matters a great deal.

 

As for the longer term prediction, while the specifics hinge on a repeat of a Dalton-caliber solar minimum, at least, the progression of the climate system over the last 40 years is a truly remarkable match to the ending stage of the previous low frequency warm phase (MWP) using all available proxy data, and the last 15yrs are also amazingly analogous to the close of the previous higher frequency warming period (late 1930s and 1940s).

You're thinking strong Niño in 19-20, correct? What about 18-19?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So lets hear all of your anologs!

[BLI snowman]

So lets hear all of your anologs!

 

1967 and 1984 are the closest ENSO progressions at this point. 

[Front Ranger]

I like 1996, 1984, 1970, and 1962.

[ShawniganLake]

I like 1996, 1984, 1970, and 1962.

How come 70 over 71?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1967 and 1984 are the closest ENSO progressions at this point. 

 

1967 is definitely on my short list.

[Jesse]

1967 is definitely on my short list.

 

Looks like we could be straying away from that year soon. September 1967 was pretty warm throughout.

[wx_statman]

FWIW, I ran a correlation analysis on the MEI bimonthlies back to 1950. The closest statistical match to 2017 - purely for progression, not the magnitude of the values - was 1993. At r = 0.967 it's an almost perfect positive match. But as you can see in the chart, the MEI in 1993 ran consistently higher so it's actually not a good match in terms of real MEI values. Only in terms of progression. Second place was 1980 at r = 0.816. 

 

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

[wx_statman]

1993 and 2017 were most similar in that both years really cranked up the +ENSO during spring, only to lose steam as we progressed through the rest of the year. 

 

1993 actually had the 5th highest MEI value for April-May at 2.02, pushing strong Nino territory. However, MEI values fell afterward and the following winter only ended up in weak Nino territory. 

 

In 2017, we had the 8th highest MEI value for April-May at 1.46 - seemingly on our way to a moderate Nino - before falling all they way into what's currently becoming a La Nina. 

[Phil]

You're thinking strong Niño in 19-20, correct? What about 18-19?

Leaning either neutral or weak -ENSO next winter (2018/19), mod/strong El Niño in 2019/20, then multiyear mod/strong La Niña in the early 2020s.

[Front Ranger]

How come 70 over 71?

 

Better QBO match, and 1971 was deep into a -ENSO regime.

[Phil]

So lets hear all of your anologs!

Using ENSO and QBO progression alone: 1956/57, 1967/68, 1974/75, 1981/82, 1989/90, 1995/96, 2000/01, 2005/06, 2007/08.

 

The only good solar/geomag matches also meeting the above criteria are 1974/75, 2005/06, and 2007/08. I'm weighting the recent years more heavily for several reasons.

[Phil]

So, my preliminary thoughts are +EPO/-PNA winter, with a cool/zonal regime in the PNW and a persistent SE-ridge.

 

Watch for more -NAO this winter compared to 2007/08 and last winter, thanks to the continued recovery of the BDC and more equatorward WHEM Hadley Cell(s). It still might be a "bootleg" style NAO, though, with the Hudson Bay ridging/anticyclonic wave breaking nothing more than a downstream feedback to the tropically/QBO forced -PNA/+EPO, at least through January.

 

Long story short: Cool/wet in the West/Northwest US, and warm across the eastern half to two thirds of the US.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So, my preliminary thoughts are +EPO/-PNA winter, with a cool/zonal regime in the PNW and a persistent SE-ridge.

 

Watch for more -NAO this winter compared to 2007/08 and last winter, thanks to the continued recovery of the BDC and more equatorward WHEM Hadley Cell(s). It still might be a "bootleg" style NAO, though, with the Hudson Bay ridging/anticyclonic wave breaking nothing more than a downstream feedback to the tropically/QBO forced -PNA/+EPO, at least through January.

 

Long story short: Cool/wet in the West/Northwest US, and warm across the eastern half to two thirds of the US.

 

Love this.

[Phil]

[Jesse]

Love this.

 

The potential for getting more snow than any other poster within 50 miles appears to be VERY growing!

 

And in the end, isn't that what winter here is all about.