ENSO Discussion

[Kayla]

The potential for getting more snow than any other poster within 50 miles appears to be VERY growing!

 

And in the end, isn't that what winter here is all about.

 

Oh lets be honest... At the end of the day, everyone really only cares about how much snow falls in their own backyard. 

[Phil]

Love this.

To be fair, this is a fairly preliminary analysis on my part. I'm leaning towards another 2007/08 style NPAC Cell, but I need to watch the Eurasian pattern closely over the next 5 weeks. This (usually) reveals the true nature of an upcoming winter, with a few exceptions (usually near strong ENSO events).

[wx_statman]

Using ENSO and QBO progression alone: 1956/57, 1967/68, 1974/75, 1981/82, 1989/90, 1995/96, 2000/01, 2005/06, 2007/08.

 

The only good solar/geomag matches also meeting the above criteria are 1974/75, 2005/06, and 2007/08. I'm weighting the recent years more heavily for several reasons.

 

I'm expecting Portland-area snow busts on December 1st this year, then. 

[Jesse]

Oh lets be honest... At the end of the day, everyone really only cares about how much snow falls in their own backyard. 

 

Speak for yourself I guess. I like it better when everyone scores. Regional events are a lot more fun for that reason. 

[wx_statman]

Funny, those were two of my top analogs (for the early portion of summer only). Goes to show how large scale system state progression isn't everything, especially locally. I screwed up the thresholds for PNA/NAM homogeneity for six consecutive weeks as a result of this modest, yet crucial, divergence in sign.

 

Definitely. The summers of 1980 and 1993 were nothing like 2017 locally, although the antecedent winters were similar. 

[wx_statman]

Oh lets be honest... At the end of the day, everyone really only cares about how much snow falls in their own backyard. 

 

As a depraved, pan-statistical weather nut I care about snow stats everywhere. 

[Kayla]

Speak for yourself I guess. I like it better when everyone scores. Regional events are a lot more fun for that reason. 

 

I agree and I do remember you mentioning that before back in January so I'm glad to see that you're consistent!

[BLI snowman]

Speak for yourself I guess. I like it better when everyone scores. Regional events are a lot more fun for that reason. 

 

Last January was fun because it snowed here the mostest.

[Kayla]

As a depraved, pan-statistical weather nut I care about snow stats everywhere. 

 

That's because you're "wx_statman"!!

[Jesse]

Last January was fun because it snowed here the mostest.

The Medford area getting blasted before our big storm really detracted from the 1/10/17 event for me, personally.

[BLI snowman]

The Medford area getting blasted before our big storm really detracted from the 1/10/17 event for me, personally.

 

Yeah, I thought about driving down there in mid January and throwing some snow at people just to get them back. 

[Phil]

For anyone using QBO this winter, here's a good graphic for visualizing the downwelling cycles through time (since the 1950s).

 

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo_wind_pdf.pdf

 

Two rules:

 

1) Timing the cycles properly between analogs is more important than getting the a absolute sign correct.

 

2) The 50mb sign is more important than the 30mb sign when it comes to influence on the NPAC high.

[Phil]

A more visually appealing QBO time series from @recretos on twitter (highly recommend following him), which also includes the SAO (faster, QBO-esque harmonic in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere), which precedes/influences the progression of the QBO itself.

 

Might have to save/expand the image yourself to see the years/timeline.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/748DA19A-19BF-4438-AC99-62153DD5A7C6_zpsityuirzd.jpg

[Front Ranger]

To be fair, this is a fairly preliminary analysis on my part. I'm leaning towards another 2007/08 style NPAC Cell, but I need to watch the Eurasian pattern closely over the next 5 weeks. This (usually) reveals the true nature of an upcoming winter, with a few exceptions (usually near strong ENSO events).

 

A bit more amplification of that cell and the PNW lowlands would have had an epic winter.

[weatherfan2012]

Leaning either neutral or weak -ENSO next winter (2018/19), mod/strong El Niño in 2019/20, then multiyear mod/strong La Niña in the early 2020s.

2019-2020 has the potential to be a big Eastern USA winter as moderate strong but west basen el nino combining with the solar minimum strong negative nao blocking tend to be classic for the block buster storm set ups.the 2020s and 2030s will be interesting as well to see how solar cycles 25 and 26 behave very low cycles could arguably spell a much more severe global cooling potential.the jury is still very much out in how low these two cycles end up being.but it will be interesting to watch in our modern record keeping time.

[weatherfan2012]

So, my preliminary thoughts are +EPO/-PNA winter, with a cool/zonal regime in the PNW and a persistent SE-ridge.

Watch for more -NAO this winter compared to 2007/08 and last winter, thanks to the continued recovery of the BDC and more equatorward WHEM Hadley Cell(s). It still might be a "bootleg" style NAO, though, with the Hudson Bay ridging/anticyclonic wave breaking nothing more than a downstream feedback to the tropically/QBO forced -PNA/+EPO, at least through January.

Long story short: Cool/wet in the West/Northwest US, and warm across the eastern half to two thirds of the US.

as you said before this winter will eather likey be the grand final in this warm series and or we see a transition type winter around the mid winter periold sort of like 2012-2013 which is also possable.

[weatherfan2012]

I think it'll be a weak La Niña by the official definition.

At least I didn't forecast a moderate El Niño.

what interesting is this winter enso matchs you're first enso ideas two years ago about this being weak low end moderate la nina.but then you sifted I beleave to the warm neutral idea for a time.interesting that you're first idea may well have proven to be the right call after all.

[snow_wizard]

I like 1996, 1984, 1970, and 1962.

 

 

That's a decent group.  Everyone of those had something to offer.

[snow_wizard]

2019-2020 has the potential to be a big Eastern USA winter as moderate strong but west basen el nino combining with the solar minimum strong negative nao blocking tend to be classic for the block buster storm set ups.the 2020s and 2030s will be interesting as well to see how solar cycles 25 and 26 behave very low cycles could arguably spell a much more severe global cooling potential.the jury is still very much out in how low these two cycles end up being.but it will be interesting to watch in our modern record keeping time.

 

It is almost like clockwork how the NW gets a couple of good winters when the solar is very low and falling, but then just after the bottom we get a Nino and the East gets a great winter.  The million dollar question is when will this bottom out.  If we have cold ENSO in 2018-19 that one could be epic with near bottom solar and positive QBO.  This winter could be quite good if we can avoid a raging PJ.

[snow_wizard]

A bit more amplification of that cell and the PNW lowlands would have had an epic winter.

 

Excellent point.  That winter came so close so many times...

[snow_wizard]

as you said before this winter will eather likey be the grand final in this warm series and or we see a transition type winter around the mid winter periold sort of like 2012-2013 which is also possable.

 

Final in this warm series?  Last winter was solidly cold in the NW.

[Phil]

Final in this warm series? Last winter was solidly cold in the NW.

I think he's talking about our region. We've had two consecutive warm winters, and it looks like we have one more left in the tank.

 

You guys are moving away from the warm regime that's dominated recent winters, last year being the start of this transition.

[Black Hole]

A bit more amplification of that cell and the PNW lowlands would have had an epic winter.

That was a great winter in Utah. A very steady stream of storms for Dec-mid Feb. I wouldn't mind a little more amplification though as it never got very cold and we didn't have any really big storms either, just lots of small-moderate stuff. Plus that way the PNW gets something too. 

[Black Hole]

I don't know if anybody mentioned it yet, but there is an offical la nina watch now. Not much of a surprise at this point though as we are in a la nina state now. 

[stuffradio]

I don't know if anybody mentioned it yet, but there is an offical la nina watch now. Not much of a surprise at this point though as we are in a la nina state now. 

The BoM Australia is still in neutral, but there next update won't be for another 2 weeks. The last update was 2 days ago.

[Geos]

Using ENSO and QBO progression alone: 1956/57, 1967/68, 1974/75, 1981/82, 1989/90, 1995/96, 2000/01, 2005/06, 2007/08.

 

The only good solar/geomag matches also meeting the above criteria are 1974/75, 2005/06, and 2007/08. I'm weighting the recent years more heavily for several reasons.

 

Yeah I know in the other thread you threw in 2007-2008.

 

This is what the Global SST were like this time in 2007, A la nina...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm with Phil on his thoughts for this winter...Not sure about 2045 though...

[Geos]

Would be nice to get the NE Pacific down below normal by winter time.

 

[stuffradio]

I'm with Phil on his thoughts for this winter...Not sure about 2045 though...

As long as 2044 is ok, that's fine with me :thumbsup:

[Geos]

News agencies now taking interest in the la Nina now.

 

http://www.king5.com/weather/blog/pacific-northwest-could-be-in-for-another-la-nia-winter/474884412

[Geos]

La Nina looking healthy.

 

 

Trade wind burst doing its thing.

 

[Black Hole]

La Nina looking healthy.

 

 

Trade wind burst doing its thing.

 

It is amazing the way this thing just exploded onto the scene. A month and a half ago there was nothing and now its cooling across the ENSO regions rapidly with the subsurface cold intensifying and expanding. 

[Phil]

Haven't seen a Walker/Hadley system like this in ages.

 

Classic!

 

[TT-SEA]

Haven't seen a Walker/Hadley system like this in ages.

 

Classic!

 

 

 

I have absolutely no idea what you are talking about here... can you tell us what we are supposed to look at on this map?

[Phil]

I have absolutely no idea what you are talking about here... can you tell us what we are supposed to look at on this map?

East-Based La Niña signature with a coupled Atlantic ENSO.

 

This was commonplace in the 1950s and 1960s. Less so since the mid/late 1970s.

[Front Ranger]

I have absolutely no idea what you are talking about here... can you tell us what we are supposed to look at on this map?

 

Walkers are red, Hadleys are blue.

[luminen]

Walkers are red, Hadleys are blue.

 

And a monster La Niña is overdue.

 

[snow_wizard]

East-Based La Niña signature with a coupled Atlantic ENSO.

 

This was commonplace in the 1950s and 1960s. Less so since the mid/late 1970s.

 

Sounds like we are on the right track!

[Dan the Weatherman]

It is amazing the way this thing just exploded onto the scene. A month and a half ago there was nothing and now its cooling across the ENSO regions rapidly with the subsurface cold intensifying and expanding. 

 

It is no coincidence that the Atlantic hurricane season has really cranked up during this time period. Developing La Ninas often feature a more active Atlantic hurricane season due to less upper level westerly wind shear over the region.

[Geos]

East-Based La Niña signature with a coupled Atlantic ENSO.

 

This was commonplace in the 1950s and 1960s. Less so since the mid/late 1970s.

 

You talking about the cooler than normal water along the Equator in the Atlantic? Never heard that term, "Atlantic ENSO".