This week will feature a nice warm-up with temps in the 70s. By the weekend, temps bottom out in the 50s for highs and 40s, if not 30s for lows here in SEMI. I think its safe to say that a few 70s could still be in the forecast down the road in October before they are gone for good until next Spring again.
I remember a string of sunny and 80º in November of 2010. Lot's of time for more summer-like conditions, followed up by true Indian Summer after the first real frost is had around SMI. And yes, early snows do little for me as well. They're not always a precursor to a horrible season, but certainly can be when you have a strong Nino. The other time they normally happen is when there's a pattern for an awesome winter ahead. We did the Nino version last year so we can rule that out but whether we get early season snows leading to the other outcome remains to be seen. Actually, of the past (3) winters, 2013-14 had the least snow total for Oct/Nov. It stayed mild til the latter half of October that year iirc. 2007 was really mild, then turned in mid-December. Perfect in my book
Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9" Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5
Annual avg for mby = 49.9" Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)
2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7"
Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918
Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967
"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.." "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" “and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off” "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."