October 2016 Observations & Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

For what it's worth, the CFS has been throwing out more odd cold runs here lately over the next 46 days. Here's some snow. :-)

 

[Tom]

As the new LRC develops, the latest 12z GFS is taking the storm mid next week (Oct 4th) farther south towards CO....

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_138_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

18z run from yesterday had it farther north...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_150_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

I like the trends as it would be the beginning of the new LRC pattern. 

[Tom]

I think we will have our 1st storm system to track of the new LRC come mid-week next week.  12z GEFS are intriguing, continuing a trend to dig a system farther SE into the central Plains by Day 7-8.

 

Yesterday's 12z run vs today's...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016092812/gfs-ens_z500a_us_35.png

 

vs...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016092912/gfs-ens_z500a_us_31.png

[Tom]

As I look deeper into the longer range, something catches my eye in East Asia.  A re-curving Typhoon is expected to hit Japan by Day 5.  What's even more fascinating, this energy merges with a piece of energy coming off of the early season Siberian Express and forms a massive Bearing Sea low by Day 7-10.

 

Here's the Japan storm...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092912/gfs_z500a_fe_20.png

 

 

 

 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/npac/1000_500_thick/gfs_npac_222_1000_500_thick.gif

 

 

 

Look out for some big model gyrations over the coming days as this is going to amplify the N PAC hemispheric flow.  There is also a window for a storm system to effect the central CONUS Oct 10-15th.  I certainly hope that we could see storm after storm this month. 

[jaster220]

@ GFS maps

 

Would be great to get an OHV track to bolster the expectations of the new pattern, eh? 

 

Edit: even better with several chances and scoring above avg precip!

[Tom]

@ GFS maps

 

Would be great to get an OHV track to bolster the expectations of the new pattern, eh? 

We'll have to see how strong the -AO ends up being.  Nonetheless, this pattern seems intriguing to me.

[jaster220]

We'll have to see how strong the -AO ends up being.  Nonetheless, this pattern seems intriguing to me.

 

Autumn of 2007 featured repeated OHV tracks with significant wind/rain combination and was a pre-cursor for sure. 

[Tom]

12z Euro develops a SLP just east of the Rockies Day 5, and then has it track into the Upper Midwest as an occluding low...pretty similar with the GFS in terms of track and strength.  Much colder punch of air on the backside by Day 7-8.

 

Day 7...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016092912/ecmwf_T850a_us_8.png

 

Day 8...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016092912/ecmwf_T850a_us_9.png

[OKwx2k4]

Daily AO update. Still looking good.

 

[OKwx2k4]

New Euro Weeklies are slow coming out. Will comment on them tonight or tomorrow as they come. All I've seen so far is a nice burst of snowcover for the US and Canada through day 15.

[Tom]

New Euro Weeklies are slow coming out. Will comment on them tonight or tomorrow as they come. All I've seen so far is a nice burst of snowcover for the US and Canada through day 15.

Anything that catches your eye from the Euro Weeklies???

 

FWIW, GFS whooped Euro on what will become Hurricane Mathew.  00z EURO is OTS after it tracks near Cuba/Bahama's region.  EPS is also trending east of where they once had it's members in the Gulf.  I wonder what JB has to say about this now???  I love his passion, but sometimes he's overly confident with the Euro.  GFS can score a coupe once in a while, esp I've noticed in the Autumn months for some reason.

[james1976]

Anything that catches your eye from the Euro Weeklies???

 

FWIW, GFS whooped Euro on what will become Hurricane Mathew. 00z EURO is OTS after it tracks near Cuba/Bahama's region. EPS is also trending east of where they once had it's members in the Gulf. I wonder what JB has to say about this now??? I love his passion, but sometimes he's overly confident with the Euro. GFS can score a coupe once in a while, esp I've noticed in the Autumn months for some reason.

I guess i havent paid a lot attention. Where is this hurricane gonna make landfall?

[Tom]

I guess i havent paid a lot attention. Where is this hurricane gonna make landfall?

NHC just released their update and the storm is now a Major Cat 3 Hurricane with winds of 115 mph.  As far as U.S. landfall, the odds of that happening are dwindling.  However, the Caribbean is going to get the worse impacts.  Specifically, areas near Jamaica/Cuba/Haiti/Bahamas are in the zone.

[Stormgeek]

As a person who has dealt with very sharp snow gradients over the past few years here in MN, I am stoked for what this new pattern will bring!

[gosaints]

Trusting any model with a tropical system this far out is far fetched.  GFS phases it into maine this current run.  Way to earlier to declare any winner.  ENSEMBLES WEST AS WELL

[Tom]

Wow, 12 Euro gets Matthew down to a Cat 5 hurricane!!!  Impressive...this tropical storm is looking very healthy.

[Tom]

CPC updated their October Outlook...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_prcp.gif

[Tom]

Phenomenal strengthening of Hurricane Matthew.  Latest NHC update is now a Cat 4 with 140mph winds!  12z EPS still not biting on a U.S. landfall.  Euro is way slower though than the GFS model.  Plenty of time to watch this unfold and very interesting to see it unfold.

[BrianJK]

Trusting any model with a tropical system this far out is far fetched.  GFS phases it into maine this current run.  Way to earlier to declare any winner.  ENSEMBLES WEST AS WELL

 

Welcome back buddy.  How you been?

[OKwx2k4]

Anything that catches your eye from the Euro Weeklies???

 

FWIW, GFS whooped Euro on what will become Hurricane Mathew. 00z EURO is OTS after it tracks near Cuba/Bahama's region. EPS is also trending east of where they once had it's members in the Gulf. I wonder what JB has to say about this now??? I love his passion, but sometimes he's overly confident with the Euro. GFS can score a coupe once in a while, esp I've noticed in the Autumn months for some reason.

Euro is cold west transitioning to cold in the central through 14 days. After 14 days and all the way to November 10 it's a torch before going cold central and south in the 2nd week. The fun snow maps are screwed up. Lots of precip making its way into the central plains and GL.

[james1976]

Local met has 70s early next week and then down to 60 for a high next Friday.

[westMJim]

The cloudy, cool, wet last few days of September 2016 took down mean temperature but still ended up at 66.4° (+3.6°) and that will be good for 7th warmest September on record here in GR.  I did some looking at the past warm September’s here in Grand Rapids and while I am not a real big believer in Analog years but that  said in the past 6 September’s that were warmer then this year (2005,1931,1927,1921,1908,and 1906) the mean snow fall here in GR came to 46.16” (average at GRR is around 75”) and the range of those years was from 30.1” (2^nd lowest in GR history) to 69.2”  Now we will have to see how the winter of 2016/17 will end up.

[Tom]

Welcome to October!  It's officially a month where many Winter outlooks are being made and the internal clock begins to shift.  There is a lot of weather going on around the globe and the one that grasps our attention in our part of the world is major Hurricane Matthew.

 

0z EURO/EPS is still OTS and the GFS/GEFS maintain a track up and close to the U.S. coastline.  FWIW, the Canadian is mainly OTS but tries to re-curve west towards Maine/Canada.  The battle continues.  What ultimately happens with this storm down the road, will influence the pattern over the north Atlantic.  Some modeling suggesting it may in fact pump a ridge near Greenland and produce a blocking pattern.

 

After digesting the 06z GEFS run, I find it rather interesting how it lays out the cold pool Day Week 2.  This is the beginning of the new LRC and I have seen long range/climate models trying to paint a similar cold pool with a NW/SE fashion.  Nature giving a sign???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016100106/gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_7.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016100106/gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_8.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016100106/gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_9.png

[Tom]

CFSv2 sneak peak into November...wait, didn't I just see something like this???  It's going to change.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20161001.201611.gif

[Tom]

The CanSips model with it's new run for October...

 

500mb...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016100100/cansips_z500a_namer_1.png

 

Precip...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016100100/cansips_apcpna_month_us_1.png

 

Temp...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016100100/cansips_T2ma_us_1.png

[Tom]

After using the 10mb/30mb warming tool in September, we saw both a Greenland Block (-NAO) develop for the second half of September as well as a ridge over N/NW Canada.  Recent stratospheric warming over and near Alaska is suggesting an Alaskan Ridge to develop (-AO).  Let's see how this plays out.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

 

 

GEFS continue to show a -AO, some members down to -3, similar to Okwx maps of the Euro's forecast.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[Tom]

I'm currently experiencing an almost perfect set up for Lake Effect rain showers. There is a tight spin right over Gary, IN and beginning to enhance shower activity over southern Lake Michigan.  The rain is falling in sheets and/or a wall-like feature as waves of embedded down pours roll in off the lake.

 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-90.76,40.66,3000

 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20161001.1545.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Tom, you covered all the bases this morning. Good stuff. Happy October everyone!

[Tom]

Tom, you covered all the bases this morning. Good stuff. Happy October everyone!

I just saw the GEFS update and the NAO is now forecast to take a dip.  Most likely thanks to the tropical storm Matthew...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

 

 

Edit: AO is even farther negative!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Euro is in really strong agreement as far as the teleconnections go.

[Tom]

Euro is in really strong agreement as far as the teleconnections go.

Blocking is going to keep the model behavior whacky!  

 

Meanwhile, I'm paying attention locally to the forecast next Friday as Cub's Postseason Baseball begins at home!

 

12z GFS has a cold front swinging through the afternoon turning winds down the lake...obviously, this will change so I hope for a better outcome.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_ncus_25.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100112/gfs_T2m_ncus_26.png

[Tom]

Over the last few runs, the GFS has been hinting at a possible rain/snow mix for NW NE this Thursday.  Crazy weather in the Plains this week.  From severe storms to possibly snowflakes mixing in on Thursday for the NW part of NE.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.gif?1475420027658

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_19.png

 

 

Gotta love Fall!!!  That's gonna be a cold raw and windy day!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100200/gfs_T2m_ncus_20.png

[Tom]

There is going to be a lot of blocking developing by week 2, something the models totally missed as this new LRC pattern evolves.  It's quite interesting how much the ensembles are flipping in the eastern 2/3rds for week 2.

 

Taking a look at the NCEP 30mb Day 10 temp forecast, rising strato heights over the Eurasian continent is creating a very clear and ominous cold signal over N.A. and Europe.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f240.png

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_nh_f240.png

 

Ensembles are starting to flip to a 500mb pattern we have not seen in a very long, esp near Greenland with a tanking -NAO coupled with a -AO.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016100200/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016100200/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_12.png

[Tom]

The extended is looking active.  After an initial storm tracks into the northern Rockies on Mon/Tue, a weaker storm develops this Thu/Fri and swings up into the western Lakes.  Models are picking up on a stronger trough to roll into the Plains by Day 10.  Both GFS/GGEM are seeing it and it looks to be a decent storm system.  Very nice active pattern if this continues to show up as troughs get handed off by the developing Aleutian Low.

 

GFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100212/gfs_z500a_us_39.png

 

GGEM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016100212/gem_z500a_us_39.png

[OKwx2k4]

Hoping for the GGEM solution for obvious reasons. If I have to watch storms cut to my west all winter this year I may lose my cool some. Lol

[Tom]

Hoping for the GGEM solution for obvious reasons. If I have to watch storms cut to my west all winter this year I may lose my cool some. Lol

For your region, it's way to early in the game.  Climo speaking, October's rarely have storms tracking that far south in the Autumn.  I'd wait till late November/December period as the jet strengthens.

[Tom]

@ Okwx, I bet the cool down coming later this week is going to feel great with high temps in the 60's Fri-Sun!

[Tom]

CPC 6-10 Day look a lot different now...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

 

Storm track right through the central CONUS...

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

 

 

FWIW, 12z EPS on board with another storm Day 9-10...should show more agreement as we get closer...East Asian Theory useful with the re-curving Typhoon near Japan Oct 4th-5th.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016100212/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_10.png

 

Track up towards the Lakes...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016100212/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_11.png

[OKwx2k4]

For your region, it's way to early in the game. Climo speaking, October's rarely have storms tracking that far south in the Autumn. I'd wait till late November/December period as the jet strengthens.

Very true. I also do know that most of my analogs had very "sudden" starts to winter after boring mid and late autumns. Haven't even had an autumn severe season here yet. I try to rush things some when I actually already know better. I gotta stop that. Lol.

[OKwx2k4]

@ Okwx, I bet the cool down coming later this week is going to feel great with high temps in the 60's Fri-Sun!

Yes it will! Going to be a cold evening for football Friday. I love it! I would not be shocked at all to see my first light frost in that 3 day stretch either. I hope I'm able to be back up and around by then. My double hernia repair operation is in the morning at 8.

 

I think I'm going to purchase a weather station in the very near future. Any good suggestions in the $300-$400 range?