October 2016 Observations & Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

CFS likes the coming cold shot.

[Niko]

My highs for next weekend are projected to be in the 50s and lows in the lower 40s. Now, there is a real nice shot of chilly air!

[Tom]

Very true. I also do know that most of my analogs had very "sudden" starts to winter after boring mid and late autumns. Haven't even had an autumn severe season here yet. I try to rush things some when I actually already know better. I gotta stop that. Lol.

Completely understandable!

 

Frosty nights Thu/Fri...a lot of "firsts" for the cold season coming and sorta on time with climo...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100218/gfs_T2m_ncus_20.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100218/gfs_T2m_ncus_24.png

[james1976]

I cant wait til first freeze. Local met has 50s thu/fri highs.

[Tom]

Wait, what is that I see...the sun!!!  I haven't seen the sun since Tuesday night believe it or not.  There have been peaks of blue skies here and there, but this pesky ULL has been with us for 6 days straight.  Here is a cool timelapse of the ULL:

 

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1093917067366112

 

Honestly, these mid/upper 70's are going to feel very nice this week!  Go Cub's Go!  The city is getting electric for postseason baseball.  Believe it or not, my father (who doesn't even like baseball) is sparking interest in the team.

 

[Tom]

This, I gotta see...Euro suggesting a "squeeze" play (Joe Maddon's playbook) at 30mb on the PV Day 6-10.  Here is the Day 10 map at 30mb...

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf30f240.gif

 

 

00z EPS hinting at a cross polar flow...that is a pretty nasty look Scandinavian Block

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016100300/ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

[Niko]

I remember last year in late October, I saw the first flurries of the season. Afterwards, I saw the first accumulating snowfall of the season in November. Usually early snows tend to make for a sucky winter (not sure if statistics show that) but, it always, most likely favors that path.

[Niko]

This week will feature a nice warm-up with temps in the 70s. By the weekend, temps bottom out in the 50s for highs and 40s, if not 30s for lows here in SEMI. I think its safe to say that a few 70s could still be in the forecast down the road in October before they are gone for good until next Spring again.

[jaster220]

This week will feature a nice warm-up with temps in the 70s. By the weekend, temps bottom out in the 50s for highs and 40s, if not 30s for lows here in SEMI. I think its safe to say that a few 70s could still be in the forecast down the road in October before they are gone for good until next Spring again.

 

I remember a string of sunny and 80º in November of 2010. Lot's of time for more summer-like conditions, followed up by true Indian Summer after the first real frost is had around SMI. And yes, early snows do little for me as well. They're not always a precursor to a horrible season, but certainly can be when you have a strong Nino. The other time they normally happen is when there's a pattern for an awesome winter ahead. We did the Nino version last year so we can rule that out but whether we get early season snows leading to the other outcome remains to be seen. Actually, of the past (3) winters, 2013-14 had the least snow total for Oct/Nov. It stayed mild til the latter half of October that year iirc. 2007 was really mild, then turned in mid-December. Perfect in my book 

[james1976]

I remember last year in late October, I saw the first flurries of the season. Afterwards, I saw the first accumulating snowfall of the season in November. Usually early snows tend to make for a sucky winter (not sure if statistics show that) but, it always, most likely favors that path.

Sept 27, 2013 i saw snow flurries and Oct 22 was first measurable snow. That season started early and didnt let go. Near record snow and cold that winter. My fav one so far in my life.

[jaster220]

Sept 27, 2013 i saw snow flurries and Oct 22 was first measurable snow. That season started early and didnt let go. Near record snow and cold that winter. My fav one so far in my life.

 

Yeah, that's the scenario we want, not the last gasp of winter just before a strong Nino comes in for the kill. Ofc, there's also the 2011-12 example when my best snow was in November and the rest of the "winter" never failed to disappoint.  

[james1976]

Clouds rolled in and the wind picked up and cooled off. It was summery a few hours ago and now its fall-like. Leaves are really turning and falling.

[clintbeed1993]

Sept 27, 2013 i saw snow flurries and Oct 22 was first measurable snow. That season started early and didnt let go. Near record snow and cold that winter. My fav one so far in my life.

 

We don't want a winter like 13/14.  Unless you love brutal cold with dry clippers and hardly any monster storms.  That makes for a pretty miserable winter imho.  Northwest flow is a big no no.

[OKwx2k4]

We don't want a winter like 13/14. Unless you love brutal cold with dry clippers and hardly any monster storms. That makes for a pretty miserable winter imho. Northwest flow is a big no no.

How was 83-84 in your area?

[gabel23]

How was 83-84 in your area?

One of the worse in my area and all of eastern Nebraska. A major blizzard started the winter off with 12" of snow thanksgiving weekend and another before Christmas lead to a streak of like 7 days below zero. I was born on the 21st of December........the high that day was -10 and the low was like -24. (I'm thinking that's why I love winter so much!)That winter makes 09-10 look like a joke...........I love the 83-84 analog.

[gabel23]

Brrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!

[james1976]

We don't want a winter like 13/14.  Unless you love brutal cold with dry clippers and hardly any monster storms.  That makes for a pretty miserable winter imho.  Northwest flow is a big no no.

I was talking about for my area. We had a lot of snow and cold. Most of the snow was from clippers and most of the winter was NW flow. When has Nebraska ever done good with clippers?

[james1976]

Brrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!

 

I seem to remember that winter. Brutal cold!

[Niko]

Sept 27, 2013 i saw snow flurries and Oct 22 was first measurable snow. That season started early and didnt let go. Near record snow and cold that winter. My fav one so far in my life.

I bet that winter rocked for you! That winter for me was also amazing! Every 2 to 3 days we would have a snowstorm!

[OKwx2k4]

Brrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!

One of the worse in my area and all of eastern Nebraska. A major blizzard started the winter off with 12" of snow thanksgiving weekend and another before Christmas lead to a streak of like 7 days below zero. I was born on the 21st of December........the high that day was -10 and the low was like -24. (I'm thinking that's why I love winter so much!)That winter makes 09-10 look like a joke...........I love the 83-84 analog.

Awesome. Can you tell me where or send me a link to where you made your map?

[OKwx2k4]

EURO Weeklies in the 4-11 and then in the 25-32 signal cold sitting right over central US with a 3 week break in between. From what I've followed since late August, this would be very consistent with a pattern that started around that time with. Precip pattern for this month on there resembles a late September-November 2010. I don't know enough about 1983 time frame but if I had to put money on it, I would guess that we have something close to a similar pattern, give or take a week to 10 days.

[james1976]

DMX mentions possible widespread frost this weekend across N IA.

[james1976]

Surprised no one is talking about Matthew. Sounds like a US landfall.

[Tom]

Surprised no one is talking about Matthew. Sounds like a US landfall.

It's current track takes it up and along the FL coastline and the SE coast...like a nasty curve-ball.  Beaches are going to take a beating.  I think this is a worst case scenario if the storm can maintain strength and intensity while tracking just offshore and along the coast.  The storms wind will be rotating onshore and pounding heavy rain, waves and storm surge from the SE.

 

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1416W5_NL+gif/114739W5_NL_sm.gif

[Niko]

What a beautiful, crisp, October morning here in SEMI. 55F and sunny skies with dewpoints in the upper 40s.

[Niko]

Surprised no one is talking about Matthew. Sounds like a US landfall.

Florida up to NE needs to pay attention to Mathew. It is entirely possible that many communities from eastern Virginia into New York and New England could see a period of damaging winds as the system starts to transition to cold-core type of character. If I were on the EC, I would start preparing.

[Niko]

Mathew has gained some strength. Currently at 145mph. (A cat4). Would not be surprised if it goes to a Cat5. It is currently under some very warm waters.

[james1976]

My brother lives a half hr SE of Raleigh. Hes excited lol.

[Niko]

Here is another piece of info. on Hurricane Mathew.

 

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-hurricane-matthew-moving-north-20161003-story.html

[Niko]

My brother lives a half hr SE of Raleigh. Hes excited lol.

I'd be nervous. . Flooding is number one cause of deaths with these powerful storms.

[Niko]

Surprised no one is talking about Matthew. Sounds like a US landfall.

It is looking likely!

[jaster220]

Brrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!

 

Coming to a winter near you! (not a huge fan of the bitter stuff, but we all know that's almost a requirement for serious storm potential. Without it, you get last year. Maybe 2007-08 around here is the best win-win for those that love to see storms but don't want the sub-zero lingering for days and days on end.

[jaster220]

Mathew has gained some strength. Currently at 145mph. (A cat4). Would not be surprised if it goes to a Cat5. It is currently under some very warm waters.

 

These things strengthen over open water, then get turbulence over any land mass bigger than an atol. This is going to cross over land masses non-stop on it's current trajectory so I'm looking for this to weaken substantially. It will have to come within 50 miles of the coast to be significant. My Mom rode out Charlie in '04 (100 mph gusts) with virtually zero damage at her double-wide park on the gulf side in Venice. They were spared a direct hit thanks to that last minute curve inland at Punta Gorda. She didn't stay there ofc, but went to my cousin's block home further inland to ride it out. Damaging winds are fairly close to the eye on most canes. 

[Niko]

These things strengthen over open water, then get turbulence over any land mass bigger than an atol. This is going to cross over land masses non-stop on it's current trajectory so I'm looking for this to weaken substantially. It will have to come within 50 miles of the coast to be significant. My Mom rode out Charlie in '04 (100 mph gusts) with virtually zero damage at her double-wide park on the gulf side in Venice. They were spared a direct hit thanks to that last minute curve inland at Punta Gorda. She didn't stay there ofc, but went to my cousin's block home further inland to ride it out. Damaging winds are fairly close to the eye on most canes. 

This will indeed weaken as it moves north up the EC, no question about it. The waters are cooler then what its currently over. Probably a CAT1 by the Carolina's or even maybe a 2 at the most.

[Niko]

http://a.abcnews.com/images/International/Matthew_Flood_20161003_4x3_992.jpg

[gabel23]

Awesome. Can you tell me where or send me a link to where you made your map?

I just went to google and searched images. I typed in December 1983 surface air anomalies. 

[jaster220]

A month of contrasts. Lovin' the pinks in Montana and the "hot pinks" down in FL:

 

 

[Niko]

State of emergency issued: Could Hurricane Matthew impact North Carolina?

 

Email

 

http://cdn.abclocal.go.com/content/wtvd/images/cms/1538369_630x354.jpg

[OKwx2k4]

I'm so over hurricanes.

[james1976]

Direct path where my brother lives