October 2016 Observations & Discussion

[jaster220]

Direct path where my brother lives

 

For the county where my buddy lives near Cape Canaveral. I never read one of these but man, that's some serious wording. Winds, floods, twisters, surging tides....you get it all with a serious cane....sheesh  Edit: that's a bit south, he's near Port St. John, but same watch in effect.

 

 

[jaster220]

I'm so over hurricanes.

 

  your reason(s)?  I don't wish for them but they keep this time of year more interesting on the wx front. Can't stop 'em

[jaster220]

I hadn't seen this before. Didn't realize Charlie packed such a punch. This thing was heading straight for Venice where my Mom, Aunt, and Uncle were all living at the time in retirement double-wides. It took a last minute jog east. So glad too.

 

(no, I don't want this in my 'hood, but wow! just watched it again. This is the closest I wanna get to such a storm tbh )

 

https://youtu.be/unV5KcSrY-I

[Niko]

I hadn't seen this before. Didn't realize Charlie packed such a punch. This thing was heading straight for Venice where my Mom, Aunt, and Uncle were all living at the time in retirement double-wides. It took a last minute jog east. So glad too.

 

(no, I don't want this in my 'hood, but wow! just watched it again. This is the closest I wanna get to such a storm tbh )

 

https://youtu.be/unV5KcSrY-I

Can you imagine pumping gas, while experiencing that??!!

[james1976]

Thats some heavy wording.

[Hawkeye]

The euro has become pretty flat with the weekend trough, not really getting too chilly around here.  It's also pretty warm in the extended.

[james1976]

The euro has become pretty flat with the weekend trough, not really getting too chilly around here. It's also pretty warm in the extended.

I noticed the GFS is warm and dry in the extended as well. Not a good start to the new LRC if this verifies.

[jaster220]

The euro has become pretty flat with the weekend trough, not really getting too chilly around here.  It's also pretty warm in the extended.

 

I noticed the GFS is warm and dry in the extended as well. Not a good start to the new LRC if this verifies.

 

Iirc, Lezak has stressed that his LRC propagates across the hemisphere (CONUS) in more or less a N to S fashion with the progression of the new cold season. I'd worry more about what's going on "upstream" from us than what's going on down at our latitudes. In '81, I don't recall seeing a flake before Dec. Even had a strong April-like T-storm that month. First real snow was a couple days before Christmas...the rest is now infamous history. 2007 is a more recent example.  If N. Canada remains warm and dry....then I'll join you in wringing hands but not before  

[Tom]

12z Euro is indeed torchy in the extended.  The blocking pattern allows Canada to fill up with some real cold air.  This time of year, -AO/NAO respond differently than in the winter/spring months.  Some peeps may get their first heavy frost this weekend and then the warmth will invade.  Indian Summer anyone???

[Tom]

I took a look at the teleconnections response in the month of October for the lower 48.  Here is the AO/NAO....

 

AO

 

http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/AO/AOneg_10oct.png

 

 

NAO...Once you get into Nov, then you start seeing colder anomalies, more so in Dec-Mar

 

http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/NAO/NAOneg_10oct.png

 

 

 

I've also included a +PNA...

 

http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/PNA/PNApos_10oct.png

[OKwx2k4]

I took a look at the teleconnections response in the month of October for the lower 48. Here is the AO/NAO....

 

AO

 

http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/AO/AOneg_10oct.png

 

 

NAO...Once you get into Nov, then you start seeing colder anomalies, more so in Dec-Mar

 

http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/NAO/NAOneg_10oct.png

 

 

 

I've also included a +PNA...

 

http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/PNA/PNApos_10oct.png

No images in that post.

[OKwx2k4]

12z Euro is indeed torchy in the extended. The blocking pattern allows Canada to fill up with some real cold air. This time of year, -AO/NAO respond differently than in the winter/spring months. Some peeps may get their first heavy frost this weekend and then the warmth will invade. Indian Summer anyone???

I think I got my threads mixed up the other day but I believe there's no problem with a CONUS torch in October and November. According to analogs, should see a brief hard cold shot in late November and then again in mid to late December. I'm not too worried. Had no clue my analogs were going to be that perfect for September. Major confidence boost for me.

[Tom]

No images in that post.

Dang it...here is the -AO/NAO and +PNA...

[Tom]

@ Okwx, what is the EPO looking like?  Is it turning positive??

[OKwx2k4]

your reason(s)? I don't wish for them but they keep this time of year more interesting on the wx front. Can't stop 'em

It's like tornadoes to me. Never understood the joy some get out of seeing people's lives get destroyed. People literally drive to these places to experience that type of weather but they usually do nothing to help or support those whose lives are destroyed. It's just a bug I have. Not aggravated at anyone. I was ok with it when it was about science, now it's just a spectacle and stuff for everyone to over sensationalize.

[OKwx2k4]

AO

 

NAO

 

EPO

 

PNA

 

I'd call that a loading pattern for cold in the late part of October if not sooner.

[Tom]

AO

ecmwf_ao_bias-3.png

 

NAO

ecmwf_nao_bias-1.png

 

EPO

ecmwf_epo_bias.png

 

PNA

ecmwf_pna_bias-1.png

 

I'd call that a loading pattern for cold in the late part of October if not sooner.

I'd say so!  Euro continues with it's EPO issues.  It keeps delaying the positive spike.  You have to wonder, maybe the models are missing something with all that blocking??!!

 

18z GFS run is showing more cooling through the 13th which is exactly when the Euro has the EPO begin going positive.  I wonder if we see models continue the warmer look or start trending cooler Day 5-10.

[james1976]

Has Lezak given any updates on the new LRC or any new thoughts on it?

Nice to see GFS look a bit cooler. 12z looked torchy.

[james1976]

Models really took a jump west with Matthew. 12z Euro has a direct hit on east central FL now.Evacuations going down.

[Tom]

Has Lezak given any updates on the new LRC or any new thoughts on it?

Nice to see GFS look a bit cooler. 12z looked torchy.

No, not yet.  He prob will sometime later this week.  October 7th is normally when the new pattern locks in.

[OKwx2k4]

I'd say so! Euro continues with it's EPO issues. It keeps delaying the positive spike. You have to wonder, maybe the models are missing something with all that blocking??!!

 

18z GFS run is showing more cooling through the 13th which is exactly when the Euro has the EPO begin going positive. I wonder if we see models continue the warmer look or start trending cooler Day 5-10.

There is that possibility. I'm kind of using a pretty solid blend when looking at the longer ranges at this time. The weeklies had the later cold punch around the very end of the 3rd week of October. I think that's a pretty solid time frame still. There should be better agreement amongst latter ranges of the models after the big front goes through this weekend. I still maintain that an above normal October overall would be par for the course.

[Niko]

Some nice weather is looking likely with no Rain in the forecast at all for most in this forum, well, almost all. Enjoy it while you have it.

[Tom]

It's a very pleasant, almost summery feel this morning with sunny skies and a nice breeze from the south.  Humidity has ticked up a bit but out ahead of a weak front from the storm targeting southern Canada.

 

Interesting small little storm will develop along a frontal boundary on Thursday in the Plains and track towards the western Lakes...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016100506/namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_38.png

 

 

Rain/Snow mix for the Arrowhead????

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016100500/namconus_asnow_ncus_23.png

[Tom]

A rather peculiar development in the stratosphere Day 5-10  is positioned to develop over N.A next week.  The Euro is suggesting a weakening state of the PV, with an elongating of the vortex and nearly splitting it by Day 10.  00z GFS shows a piece of the PV dipping down near Hudson Bay by the 11th.

 

Euro Day 10....

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf30f240.gif

 

 

 

 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_168_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

 

 

 

If you'd show me this sort of map in the Winter with all the blocking present, I'd say, look out.  At 500mb, the new LRC is showing an ominous look for cold intrusion into the lower 48 if this hypothetically is the "look" as we head deeper into the cold season.  I know the models are showing a ridge underneath, but with seasonal differences in the jet stream later on, this is something to keep in the back of your mind once this part of the LRC cycles through in late November. 

[Tom]

A hard Frost is likely for parts of NE/KS Thu night....

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lbf/GraphiCast/FileL.png

 

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/gld/GraphiCast/FileL.png

[jaster220]

Funny we're now talking freezes when temps have rebounded over here like summer. I've noticed over the years that SMI will remain warm if there's a 'cane roaming the GOMEX or eastern seaboard. That tropical stuff will need to play out before we see chilly wx visiting mby in Marshall. Matthew looks to make an impact. Guys (Andrew, Hugo, Matthew) wanna rough up the EC, girls like the gulf coast it seems

[jaster220]

It's like tornadoes to me. Never understood the joy some get out of seeing people's lives get destroyed. People literally drive to these places to experience that type of weather but they usually do nothing to help or support those whose lives are destroyed. It's just a bug I have. Not aggravated at anyone. I was ok with it when it was about science, now it's just a spectacle and stuff for everyone to over sensationalize.

 

THAT! /\/\ 

 

Couldn't agree more...total lack of concern is rampant in these chasers from what I've seen. 

[gabel23]

I ended with 2.00" of rain over the past two days. I'm hoping to avoid a hard frost as my tomato plants are still producing! Here is the rainfall estimates over the area. Not all were as lucky, but if this was the beginning to the LRC it was a good start!

 

 

[Tom]

Funny we're now talking freezes when temps have rebounded over here like summer. I've noticed over the years that SMI will remain warm if there's a 'cane roaming the GOMEX or eastern seaboard. That tropical stuff will need to play out before we see chilly wx visiting mby in Marshall. Matthew looks to make an impact. Guys (Andrew, Hugo, Matthew) wanna rough up the EC, girls like the gulf coast it seems

I agree, Matthew is probably going to keep trying to push the ridge into our region as tropical systems like to "vent" into our area.

[OKwx2k4]

I ended with 2.00" of rain over the past two days. I'm hoping to avoid a hard frost as my tomato plants are still producing! Here is the rainfall estimates over the area. Not all were as lucky, but if this was the beginning to the LRC it was a good start!

That's awesome that you still have plants producing. Late August and September drought and heat made any that survived here so bitter they were nasty to eat.

[Tom]

I found this on social media...kinda creepy if you ask me...is this nature saying something...???

 

[james1976]

Yup....GFS showing a nice compact system thu/fri and another one late next week.

Anyone notice how active Canada is on the models. Wow

[Tom]

@ Okwx, regarding the EPO map you posted from the Euro, it got me to jog my memory from the past 2 winters at how both the GFS/EURO did a bad job handling the warm ring along NW NAMER and where to place the trough.

 

I did some digging and I find some interesting model errors for both the GFS/EURO.  Check out the differences in both models from Day 10 to the Day 5 500mb pattern near NW NAMER.  Both GFS/EURO missed the -AO and also the ridge along NW NAMER.

 

12z EPS/EURO from Sep 30th...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016093012/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016093012/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

 

 

12z GEFS/GFS Sept 30th...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016093012/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016093012/gfs_z500a_namer_41.png

 

GFS did a better job with the -AO and that's why I like using that model past Day 7 hemispherically speaking.

 

 

 

Now here is today's 12z run from both the EURO/GFS for Day 5...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016100512/ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100512/gfs_z500a_namer_21.png

 

 

Both models are moving the trough farther offshore.  I wonder if this will be a theme for the cold season moving forward again.  Just a though.

[james1976]

I found this on social media...kinda creepy if you ask me...is this nature saying something...???

 

That is strange!! But kinda cool.

[Tom]

12z EPS correction at 500mb by Day 7 continues retrograding the trough farther off the NW NAMER coast.  I see the same bias developing of which we have seen over the past couple winters.

 

Here is the current Day 7 run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016100512/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_8.png

 

Here is what it looked like 2 days ago...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016100312/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10.png

 

 

If that ridge is stronger along the NW NAMER coast, I could see a deeper trough down the central states.  Today's run is missing the connection down in the Gulf.  Wonder if future runs show the connection.

 

850's from today vs 2 days ago...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016100512/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_8.png

 

vs...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016100312/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_10.png

 

 

Euro is backing off the ridge building into the central CONUS.  If you flip through from 2 days ago, the trough signal is getting deeper each day.  We'll see how it plays out.

[OKwx2k4]

@ Okwx, regarding the EPO map you posted from the Euro, it got me to jog my memory from the past 2 winters at how both the GFS/EURO did a bad job handling the warm ring along NW NAMER and where to place the trough.

 

I did some digging and I find some interesting model errors for both the GFS/EURO. Check out the differences in both models from Day 10 to the Day 5 500mb pattern near NW NAMER. Both GFS/EURO missed the -AO and also the ridge along NW NAMER.

 

12z EPS/EURO from Sep 30th...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016093012/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016093012/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

 

 

12z GEFS/GFS Sept 30th...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016093012/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016093012/gfs_z500a_namer_41.png

 

GFS did a better job with the -AO and that's why I like using that model past Day 7 hemispherically speaking.

 

 

 

Now here is today's 12z run from both the EURO/GFS for Day 5...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016100512/ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100512/gfs_z500a_namer_21.png

 

 

Both models are moving the trough farther offshore. I wonder if this will be a theme for the cold season moving forward again. Just a though.

That is pretty interesting.

 

My "go to" method as of late with the GFS at 7-10 is to add the eastern trough into its normal position downstream of the PAC trough. With surface temps I have been adding 2 or 3 degrees to the cooldowns at that range and so far it's worked pretty well. Your bottom maps should have a trough somewhere in the east. I doubt the pattern is just going to break like that.

 

Both models do have the EPO in a spike on the day shown but I do believe it will crash again shortly (3rd week of Oct).

[Tom]

That is pretty interesting.

 

My "go to" method as of late with the GFS at 7-10 is to add the eastern trough into its normal position downstream of the PAC trough. With surface temps I have been adding 2 or 3 degrees to the cooldowns at that range and so far it's worked pretty well. Your bottom maps should have a trough somewhere in the east. I doubt the pattern is just going to break like that.

 

Both models do have the EPO in a spike on the day shown but I do believe it will crash again shortly (3rd week of Oct).

CFS has been advertising a cool down during this period also.  Ups and downs of typical Autumn weather.  Today its fantastic!  Hit a high of 80F with nice southerly breeze.  I did some cardio at the park earlier doing sprints and abs...busted a sweat!

[james1976]

Good job noticing this stuff guys.

[Niko]

http://www.rd.com/advice/13-things-your-tv-weatherman-wont-tell-you/

[Niko]

What a gorgeous day is was here in SEMI. It will continue all week, Thank goodness I did not adjust the AC to Heat in my home.  I think I'll wait another week or 2.