October 2016 Observations & Discussion

[Tom]

@ Jaster, 12z GFS...you were saying???  Fantasy land...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016101412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_48.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016101412/gfs_T2m_ncus_49.png

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

See my post in the other thd LOL!  Only "disconnect" is that's still October and all talking heads are saying November's when the real deal shows up. Either way, looks like it won't be long, eh?

[jaster220]

Oh baby that image is glorious. Nice bowling ball type Colorado Low. I hope that trend stays, that'd be an awesome system to have any time of the year.

 

Speaking of which, which do you guys prefer? Colorado Lows, or Panhandle Hook Systems?

 

I'm with Tom, here in Marshall I've done best with the CO lows for the win!  I'm sure Okwx has to disagree though, so let's get a nice mix this year.

 

Great CO's for mby = Dec 2000, Feb 2015, Nov 2015 

Good Hookers for mby = Jan '99, GHD-1, Jan '67

[jaster220]

KRMY got to 34º this morning but I did see a site or 2 around the county report 32º so I'm gonna say "1st freeze" was had, and thus true Indian Summer is at hand. Enjoy peeps! ..and GO CUBS!   

 

 

[Tom]

12z GEFS showing some support for a wave to come out of CO this coming Wednesday...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016101412/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016101412/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_22.png

 

 

What happens from there is up in the air....

[OKwx2k4]

I'm a guy that roots for the entire "team" to win, so I'd say CO Low's are pretty awesome systems to track bc most of the time it ends up being a "share the wealth" type of system. Panhandle Hooks are also fun storms but they tend to miss the central Plains and target the southern Plains/Midwest/Lakes and more often than not, these systems are bigger/stronger storms due to a stronger interaction with the GOM.

I agree with this. I can win a bit better in the Colorado low situation. It seeds cold air into SW flow so if the main low misses, I get a nice training snow while you guys get the big wrapped up low. It's a win win for everyone.

[OKwx2k4]

If I'm selfish, I prefer a red River style Arklatex low that cuts due north when it hits north Central Louisiana. Lol

[OKwx2k4]

Looking at some analogs with weird SOI numbers entering NOV and DEC gives 2 seasons that really stick out to me. One is 1959-60 and the other is 1983-84. Further cementing those 2 analogs as front runners for this season. I'm pretty sure winter begins in late November up there and early December here this year.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm with Tom, here in Marshall I've done best with the CO lows for the win! I'm sure Okwx has to disagree though, so let's get a nice mix this year.

 

Great CO's for mby = Dec 2000, Feb 2015, Nov 2015

Good Hookers for mby = Jan '99, GHD-1, Jan '67

December 2000 was a 6 inch snow and damaging ice storm here so it was interesting at least. February 2015 was great here too. Produced a glacier type sleet that didn't melt for 2 weeks. November 2015 got beat by climo. No snow for me.

[OKwx2k4]

I'll take the entire last half of the 12z GFS in about 45-56 days please. Perfect storm on there today.

 

[Niko]

Temp dropped to a chilly 31F last night. Plenty of frost to speak of.

 

@Jaster, did you get frost this time?

[Niko]

Next week will feel like summer again. I have a shot at near 80 or slightly higher. Much cooler by weeks end. I think this might be the last of these 70s until next year again.

[Tom]

Did Nature help with Montero's pinch hit Grand Slam???  Nonetheless, it was a phenomenal Game 1 victory at Wrigley.  It's a warm/damp almost summery morning today and quite possibly near record high temps on Monday!  Indian Summer in full effect.

 

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=69263

[westMJim]

There is a chance that Grand Rapids (MI) will set a record rain fall amount for today.  So far Grand Rapids has recorded 1.76” of rain and the record for this date is 1.78” recorded in 1993.  The 1.76 amount is good for 2^nd place. So far October 2016 is now at 5.11” here at Grand Rapids (1.60” is average) and for the year Grand Rapids is now at 39.05” and that is already well above the average of 34.40” so this has been a wet year!

[westMJim]

If you like to see a map with a lot of wen cam locations on it here is one from the MDOT. While the pictures from some of the cams are not that good (some are better than others) most have a temperature indicator so you can see the temperature (not sure where the readings are from) along with the cam.

http://mdotnetpublic.state.mi.us/drive/

[jaster220]

I found it quite intriguing as well. Siberia is forecast to be brutally cold for the foreseeable future. When the cold air does dislodge, it would probably look like 2010-11. I use that year cautiously as an example, not an analog or anything like that.

 

1993-94 comes to my mind as that was an extended mild autumn right up til Christmas week, then ensued 7 weeks of the most brutal cold I've ever experienced including an "unofficial" new state low of -57ºF. Ofc, I was in N Michigan then, S Mich had it a bit easier on the temps.

[jaster220]

Temp dropped to a chilly 31F last night. Plenty of frost to speak of.

 

@Jaster, did you get frost this time?

 

I didn't personally see frost though I'm sure there was plenty outside of town.

[Niko]

I didn't personally see frost though I'm sure there was plenty outside of town.

Dang, I am surprised! Do you live in the city or something where heat does not escape too fast at night.

[Niko]

Will definitely enjoy the upper 70s to near 80 next week. It will feel so nice. Yard work for sure.

[james1976]

Summer is back. 67 this morning. Set a record for a warm low temp. Near record highs today. Its humid as well.

[james1976]

GFS doing its typical showing cold and then taking it away as we get closer. Still looking pretty active later in the month tho.

[westMJim]

Grand Rapids and Muskegon both set new record rain fall amounts for October 16^th

The 1.78” at Grand Rapids and the 1.61” at Muskegon that fell yesterday are new records for October 16^th at both locations. So far this October the rain fall at GRR is now at 5.13” and for the year it is now at  39.07”.  The October record for Grand Rapids is 8.32” set in 1954 and the yearly record is 48.80” set in 2008 at this time both should be safe.

[westMJim]

Wow, with the low of only 63° yesterday (October 16^th) that is good for the second warmest minimum for the date.  The warmest here in GRR is 64° in 1928 and the old second place was 60 in 1984.  Now as for today the warmest minimum for October 17^th is 62° in 1998 and so far the lowest for today is 63° so if we can keep from falling below 63° until after midnight a new record warm minimum for October will be recorded today.  As always enjoy history in the making.

[jaster220]

December 2000 was a 6 inch snow and damaging ice storm here so it was interesting at least. February 2015 was great here too. Produced a glacier type sleet that didn't melt for 2 weeks. November 2015 got beat by climo. No snow for me.

 

Truly shocked that you made out that well with those systems! Nonetheless, I'd still like to see our back yards in a winter that featured CO lows taking turns with pan handle hooks. Would love to set a new all time depth record. I'm not sure exactly what that delta is for Marshall though. Battle Creek's is 31" after the '78 super bliz so we likely had 26 or 27" here. Four years later in '82 I know the depth peaked at 24". I have that on good standing from a friend who lived here then.

 

Dang, I am surprised! Do you live in the city or something where heat does not escape too fast at night.

 

Yep, right downtown basically and with tons of large trees with all their green leafs, it's gonna take upr 20's no doubt to see a lot of frost in mby.

[jaster220]

If I'm selfish, I prefer a red River style Arklatex low that cuts due north when it hits north Central Louisiana. Lol

 

Was gonna pose the question on here. What do you want to see a repeat of more, Dec 15th 1987 or Dec 15th 2007?  (pretty sure I know Tom's answer without looking)

[Niko]

Truly shocked that you made out that well with those systems! Nonetheless, I'd still like to see our back yards in a winter that featured CO lows taking turns with pan handle hooks. Would love to set a new all time depth record. I'm not sure exactly what that delta is for Marshall though. Battle Creek's is 31" after the '78 super bliz so we likely had 26 or 27" here. Four years later in '82 I know the depth peaked at 24". I have that on good standing from a friend who lived here then.

 

 

Yep, right downtown basically and with tons of large trees with all their green leafs, it's gonna take upr 20's no doubt to see a lot of frost in mby.

I figured.

[Niko]

Today outside actually feels a bit muggy, noticeable indeed. Temps are in the 70s.

[Tom]

ORD never got down below 67F last night and definitely won't get down to 62F (record low high) by midnight.  Meaning, ORD most likely will set a record low high temp for the day.  Record high for today is 86F.

[Tom]

When I left the gym about an hour ago, I had a flashback like it was a summer day.  Wow, very impressive torch today, esp with the higher than normal dew points.  Sitting at a high temp of 82F with a 63F dew point.  Enjoy while you can! 

 

The trees are responding from the frosty mornings last week and turning color faster.  A nice, stiff southerly breeze is blowing them around town.  Might set another record low high tonight.  I was watching TWC and they had a chart up for Detroit and listed some warm October nights and one of them was October 2007, another good analog???

[Hawkeye]

Up to 85/66 at Cedar Rapids.  Even with the strong wind it's pretty toasty.

[westMJim]

It had been cloudy here all day until about a half hour ago and now the temperature is up to 78 here at my house.  GRR has a very good shot of setting a new record warmest minimum for October 17^th  The current warmest minimum for today is 62° set in 1998 and the lowest it has been today so far is 63 so if we do not fall below 63 we will set a new record.

[Tom]

ORD had it's latest occurring 80 degree day since Oct 21, 2007.  It's also been the warmest start to October since 1871!  

 

Just saw a 101F temp near Dodge City, KS!  Impressive heat!

[OKwx2k4]

Truly shocked that you made out that well with those systems! Nonetheless, I'd still like to see our back yards in a winter that featured CO lows taking turns with pan handle hooks. Would love to set a new all time depth record. I'm not sure exactly what that delta is for Marshall though. Battle Creek's is 31" after the '78 super bliz so we likely had 26 or 27" here. Four years later in '82 I know the depth peaked at 24". I have that on good standing from a friend who lived here then.

 

 

Yep, right downtown basically and with tons of large trees with all their green leafs, it's gonna take upr 20's no doubt to see a lot of frost in mby.

 

 

 

 

This was the first storm of December 2000. The ice and snowstorm that followed 2 weeks later on Christmas break made that December pretty remarkable. It was a cold year from late October through late January also. It was a top 10 winter here and #4 probably in my list of favorites.

 

To your other question Jaster, 1987 for the win by a mile for me. It was darn close to December of 2000 here.

[Niko]

When I left the gym about an hour ago, I had a flashback like it was a summer day.  Wow, very impressive torch today, esp with the higher than normal dew points.  Sitting at a high temp of 82F with a 63F dew point.  Enjoy while you can! 

 

The trees are responding from the frosty mornings last week and turning color faster.  A nice, stiff southerly breeze is blowing them around town.  Might set another record low high tonight.  I was watching TWC and they had a chart up for Detroit and listed some warm October nights and one of them was October 2007, another good analog???

I like when we get warm temps in the Autumn season, usually means a harsh winter on the way!

[Tom]

Boy, were the winds cranking last night!  It was hard to fall asleep with the trees roaring and the temps so warm at night.  Here are some peak wind gusts:

 

 

 

Top wind gusts this evening:
57mph CHI-HarrisonCrib
54mph CHI-Northerly Is
50mph CHI-McKinley Park
49mph CHI-Foster Beach
47mph Waukegan

 

The storm that targeted the upper Midwest will drag a boundary and allow a storm to develop and track near the Lakes this week.  Models are starting to spin up a weak storm near the OK region and track up through the S Midwest/Lakes during Wed/Thu period.  It'll eventually spin up into big storm over NE which will buckle the jet and block up the pattern later this week into the weekend.

 

We broke a record last night:

 

 

NWS Chicago ‏@NWSChicago  1h

1 hour ago

NWS Chicago Retweeted NWS Chicago

#Chicago (67°) & #Rockford (68°) both set new record warm low temps 10/17. Previous records were 63° in CHI & 61° in RFD set in 1998. #ilwx

 

[westMJim]

Grand Rapids set a new record warmest minimum temperature for October 17^th.  The official low for the 17^th will be 63° and that is a new record the old record was 62° set in 1998.  Also of note is that overnight last night the lowest was a very summer like 72° That 72 is also the current reading both at the airport and here at my house. If the temperature don’t drop below 63 before midnight we will set yet another record for the 18^th (the top 3 are 63 in 2007, 60 in 1947 and 59 in 1994) BTW the warmest minimum temperature for October in Grand Rapids history happened on October 21 1979 when it only got down to 72°( the high/low for October 21, 1979 was 80/72 and the next day it was 82/54)

[james1976]

I wonder what our departures are for the month so far.

GFS is warm the remainder of the month.

[Tom]

I wonder what our departures are for the month so far.

GFS is warm the remainder of the month.

Torch!

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nwscr/MonthTDeptNWSCR.png

[james1976]

Id like to see it the other way around but its hard to complain about 60s and 70s. Its been a very nice fall.

[Tom]

Id like to see it the other way around but its hard to complain about 60s and 70s. Its been a very nice fall.

Enjoy it while you can, bc when the flip comes, it's coming hard!

 

Overall, a stormier pattern is setting up Week 2 as troughs are forecast to start targeting a little farther south along the west coast.

 

12z GEFS are showing some consistency as well as the CFSv2...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016101812/gfs-ens_z500a_us_37.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016101812/gfs-ens_z500a_us_53.png

 

 

 

 

Should translate to a wetter central CONUS to close out the month...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016101812/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_5.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016101812/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_9.png

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