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ENSO thread

ENSO Sun QBO KW MJO etc

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#101
richard mann

Posted 30 September 2014 - 02:21 PM

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Putting aside the idea of what will or might actually result where looking ahead main "ENSO" wise, …
 
With looking at the main anomalies SST focused through the Pacific at this point, it looks like the better question might be will the whole of the Pacific, both North and South of the equator east and west, end up showing above normal readings. ….
 
http://www.ospo.noaa...t.9.29.2014.gif
 
 
Generally related. - http://theweatherfor...d-more/?p=33828  @


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#102
richard mann

Posted 16 October 2014 - 10:07 PM

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http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.10.16.2014.gif
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/553-enso-2014-15-prediction-thread/?p=28944
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#103
richard mann

Posted 17 October 2014 - 12:41 PM

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(.. cross-ference.
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/640-october-2014-observations-for-the-pacific-northwest/?p=35354


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#104
richard mann

Posted 16 November 2014 - 03:36 PM

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I really like the 12z ECMWF. Pretty cool overall and a definite un El Nino look to the pattern. Looks like we could see some cool weather without a mega block being necessary. Something we have had great difficulty achieving this year.


That's a classic niño pattern, dude..

 
Please. This is "murky" definition at Best.
 
anomnight.11.13.2014.gif

 
http://www.ospo.noaa.../anim full.html


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#105
Chris

Posted 17 November 2014 - 08:35 AM

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Nino 3.4  SSTA warming up
               Nino 1+2     Nino 3         Nino 3.4    Nino 4
06AUG2014     22.2 1.2     25.6 0.4     27.0 0.0     29.2 0.5
 13AUG2014     21.9 1.2     25.5 0.5     26.9 0.0     29.0 0.4
 20AUG2014     22.1 1.4     25.5 0.5     27.1 0.3     29.1 0.4
 27AUG2014     21.3 0.8     25.4 0.4     27.2 0.4     29.2 0.5
 03SEP2014     21.7 1.2     25.3 0.4     27.1 0.4     29.2 0.5
 10SEP2014     21.1 0.7     25.3 0.4     27.3 0.5     29.4 0.7
 17SEP2014     21.0 0.7     25.2 0.4     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.8
 24SEP2014     21.2 0.8     25.4 0.5     27.1 0.4     29.3 0.6
 01OCT2014     21.7 1.1     25.4 0.5     27.1 0.3     29.2 0.5
 08OCT2014     21.3 0.6     25.5 0.6     27.1 0.4     29.1 0.5
 15OCT2014     21.5 0.7     25.5 0.5     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.7
 22OCT2014     21.8 0.8     25.8 0.8     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.7
 29OCT2014     21.8 0.6     25.8 0.9     27.3 0.6     29.4 0.8
 05NOV2014     21.9 0.5     25.8 0.9     27.4 0.8     29.5 0.9
 12NOV2014     22.4 0.9     25.8 0.9     27.5 0.8     29.5 0.9

http://www.cpc.ncep....s/wksst8110.for



#106
richard mann

Posted 20 November 2014 - 06:42 PM

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I've finally resolved the whole "Analog" thing. …"It's" .. a flat mix of both 1996-7, and 1976-7. Best .. and worst, of both worlds. .Have a holly jolly holiday season.
 
And with every attempt at levity, a little bit of truth. Right. ?


I could live with 96-97. 40" of snow here around Christmas.
 
76-77 looked quite dry though...little if any snow but lots of chilly nights.


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#107
richard mann

Posted 20 November 2014 - 06:45 PM

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(.. connected to an isolated quotations post related just above. Response to the second of these.)

.. More post the drought where looking a 1976-7, if with the drought's having been the main focus more ENS0 related at that point as I see things. And with two main ideas more 1996-7 focused comparison, being latitude (focus of impact, looked at more latitudinally.) and an obviously lesser generation of both heat as SSTs, and so tropical and sub-tropical moisture that to now. "Flat mix", still covers the idea for me. Elements of both, if neither.
 
"Drought" certainly, in both cases 1976-7 to the present. Similarity in and where looking the basic pattern propensity where considering ENSO, if with more cold focused through higher latitudes both north and south, and less heat being generated through the whole of the equatorial Pacific, more 1996-7 to the present. Still and all, if the idea of "Analog" correlation is to be considered, and if again as I see the idea, this being the best "balance". 


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#108
richard mann

Posted 01 December 2014 - 03:35 AM

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(.. continuing in line with the general theme.)

 

.. a flat mix of .. 1996-7, and 1976-7. Best .. and worst, of both worlds.


http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/12/northwest-cold-wave-is-california.html

Draw your own conclusions for the time being.


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#109
richard mann

Posted 11 February 2015 - 02:54 PM

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"Typhoon Higos Makes History in NW Pacific ..."            (Pacific, N. hem. West.)
Bob Henson , 3:50 PM GMT on February 11, 2015 .. "Weather Underground"
 
With an unexpected burst of intensification on Monday, Typhoon Higos became the strongest tropical cyclone on record for so early in the year in the Northern Hemisphere. The compact typhoon dissipated quickly after its show of strength, having spun out its short life over an empty stretch of the Northwest Pacific roughly midway between the Marshall Islands and Northern Mariana Islands. The official peak intensity of Higos, as recorded by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JWTC) was 105 kts (120 mph) at 0600 GMT on February 10, making it a Category 3.  Read more ...

Accessible here just below is a gif-loop sequence, of the main fuller global Sea-Surface Temperature Anomalies having registered nearest to Feb. 10, annually from 2005 forward.
 
2005-2015.anomnight.2.8-11.gif

Climate/Pattern, related more generally. -  http://theweatherfo...ussion/?p=69646
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#110
richard mann

Posted 24 February 2015 - 12:30 AM

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Just, "odd".

anomnight.2.23.2015.gif
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#111
Chris

Posted 24 February 2015 - 10:53 AM

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Just, "odd".

anomnight.2.23.2015.gif

 

A typical PDO+ but where's the Nino?



#112
richard mann

Posted 25 February 2015 - 09:12 PM

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hey. Yeh, Chris.
 
.. A more positive PDO is about the only thing that's been more in line with what I'd been looking at more through to beginning of the colder seasonsback during the summer, even earlier, when the Nino had been looking to build. 
 
Basically, a warming (more "multi-decal") nearer the equator, set with a cooling more, correspondent proportional, through the main higher latitudes both North and South.
 
.. But instead, and if more in line with last year, the cooling, that I'd been looking at, appearing to have all collected more to the East (main Western hemispheric scope and perspective.). And so with this otherwise, the whole of what I'd been considering as a possibility / potential propensity more general, more generally, appearing to have set up more "tilted", more diagonally. This with, as I'm viewing the general set up main and broader "temperature" wise more at this point as, more figuratively, .... A "New North Pole's" having been established, at near to the center of the "Hudson Bay", and with the main higher latitudes stores of cold more centered around it. And then with this, the main "warmth" that I'd expected nearer to the equator and through the tropics more, having found its way to the main Eastern Pacific and even more northward into Alaska.  
 
150219 18z Goes12-VIS.jpg / 150219 21z Goes10-VIS.jpg   
source:  http://www.fvalk.com/day image.htm
 
Again, .. Just "odd".


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#113
richard mann

Posted 06 March 2015 - 01:14 AM

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Addendum to the post of my just above. 
 
.. Actually I guess "The New North Pole" is more between Greenland and The Hudson Bay. 
 
 15030100z 15030600z nhem 500.gif

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.3.5.2015.gif
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim full.html


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#114
Webberweather53

Posted 15 March 2015 - 06:02 AM

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Definitely a factor behind the upcoming -NAM. Can't remember the last time I saw ridging over Greenland.

That said, the background state may reassert itself during the rebound in tropical forcing..we'll see.

 

One thing is for sure, the eastern hemisphere interference is liable to once again attempt to squash this El Nino during the Boreal summer once the favorable seasonal parameters for climatologically high MJO amplitude (w/ peak amp. usually occurring in March), approximate equatorial symmetry, etc. go away. The persistent/anomalously warm water still surrounding Australia is offering some clues & will likely attempt to maintain the wavenumber 2 Upper Level VP signature we observed this past winter...

 

DJF-2015-Eq-Pacific-VP-Anomalies.png

 

SSTs vs post 1950 2nd year El Ninos...

Feb-2015-Global-SSTs-vs-2nd-Year-El-Nino

 

SSTs vs post post 1994-95 El Ninos...

Feb-2015-Global-SSTs-vs-Post-1994-95-El-

 

 

This interference in concert w/ a warming IO has been a steadily growing issue over the last several decades, and has progressively shoved the entire anomalous upper lvl circulation associated w/ an El Nino further east into the Pacific & evolved into a less conducive wave number 2. In fact, in the post 1997-98 era, the anom, NINO circulation in the Pacific has actually become secondary to the eastern hemisphere... Wow

 

Pre 1980 El Ninos

Global-200VP-Pre-1976-78-El-Ninos.png

 

Post 1980 El Ninos

Global-200VP-Post-1976-78-El-Ninos.png

 

Post 1997-98 El Ninos

Post-1998-NDJFM-200VP.png

 

 

Thus, instead of us observing a nice, big, one & done El Nino, it's being strung out for 2+ years. I could easily see this going for 3 years if conditions warrant & we fail to breakdown the Hudson-Bay Greenland Vortex for a 3rd straight winter... (Multi-yr +ENSO examples: 1935-1938, 1939-1942, 1951-1954, 1990-1995, 2002-2005, etc...)


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#115
Phil

Posted 15 March 2015 - 12:46 PM

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This interference in concert w/ a warming IO has been a steadily growing issue over the last several decades, and has progressively shoved the entire anomalous upper lvl circulation associated w/ an El Nino further east into the Pacific & evolved into a less conducive wave number 2.


Awesome post, thanks for joining in. Agree with pretty much everything you mentioned, particularly the effect(s) of the growing IO/PAC SST contrast in recent decades. When that Walker Cell moves it only reinforces the SST/lift signature that initiated the movement in the first place. This cycle probably continues until external forcing(s) are sufficient to promote conflicting counter-resonance(s) relevant to the domain in the feedback loop.

Thus, instead of us observing a nice, big, one & done El Nino, it's being strung out for 2+ years. I could easily see this going for 3 years if conditions warrant & we fail to breakdown the Hudson-Bay Greenland Vortex for a 3rd straight winter... (Multi-yr +ENSO examples: 1935-1938, 1939-1942, 1951-1954, 1990-1995, 2002-2005, etc...)


Agreed. I think solar forcing alone favors a multi-year Niño, both statistically and physically/dynamically. Usually you get these +ENSO stretches 1-3 years after the start of solar maximum, usually during a -QBO waveguide which favors best HC expansion/poleward transfer.
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#116
Webberweather53

Posted 15 March 2015 - 07:29 PM

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Awesome post, thanks for joining in. Agree with pretty much everything you mentioned, particularly the effect(s) of the growing IO/PAC SST contrast in recent decades. When that Walker Cell moves it only reinforces the SST/lift signature that initiated the movement in the first place. This cycle probably continues until external forcing(s) are sufficient to promote conflicting counter-resonance(s) relevant to the domain in the feedback loop.


Agreed. I think solar forcing alone favors a multi-year Niño, both statistically and physically/dynamically. Usually you get these +ENSO stretches 1-3 years after the start of solar maximum, usually during a -QBO waveguide which favors best HC expansion/poleward transfer.

 

Thanks, I personally think you're one of the most intelligent individuals in regards to meteorology (along w/ Anthony Masiello) that I've come across since I started gaining a "true" interest in meteorology several years ago & your posts here over the last several weeks have cleared up a lot of things for me esp. in terms of expanding HCs & the stubborn HB-Greenland Vortex...

 

The +NAM isn't helping... & interestingly the SLP difference b/t returning El Ninos & those w/ the strongest, subsequent rebound La Ninas actually resembles the AO SLP correlation for the same time period... Cool

 

SLP-Returning-El-Ninos-vs-Top-10-Bounce-

 

I completely agree w/ the bolded statement, hopefully the upcoming low solar regime, expanding HCs & warming IO don't throw us a curveball here...

 

There's no doubt solar forcing regulates ENSO, I looked at the return period of El Ninos & La Ninas in 50-60 year window using the new CPC 30-yr moving base period climo for post 1950 events, 1971-2000 for 1900-1950 era & extended MEI to add a few more onto the list in the late 1800s & found a quasi-regular pattern of increasing La Nina intensity & longevity on a interdecadal scale of about 15-20 years... This behavior may just be a manifestation of the IPO (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation) or perhaps a lower frequency extension of the recharge-discharge oscillator ENSO theory consisting of multiple flips between the + and - ENSO base states. Regardless, what's worth looking at here is that this observed phenomena operates on time scales that are generally inconsistent w/ & fall in between that of ENSO & PDO (although there may be some overlap and these cycles take up a decent proportion of the ENSO/PDO variability). Over a period of about a decade and a half to 20 years or so we undergo a period of progressively increasing La Nina intensity, which then, after the last & largest La Nina event of the series, is followed by a multi year warm ENSO neutral or El Nino event, and then cycle repeats...

Strangely enough, this interdecadal cycle became relatively non-existant during the 1920s-40s & revived thereafter... Not sure exactly why. (Surely World War II didn't help matters...)

 

15-20-yr-ENSO-La-Nina-Intensity-Variabil

 

ts.png

 

 

 

What do you make of this 15-20 cycle? I'm certainly perplexed...

 

Regardless, there is a legitimate spectral peak around 15-20 years in the La Ninas, which lays generally in between higher frequency ENSO persistence (4-7 years) & the appreciably lower frequency multidecadal PDO signal (25-30+ years). There's also a profound minimum in returning La Ninas corresponding to the solar cycle length...

 

La-Nina-Return-period-1871-2014-MEI-ENSO

I've added in a few key features as well, which generally correspond to the observed oscillations...

 

 

The El Nino return frequency doesn't show nearly the spectral peak in the 15-20 year band, but an inversion of the La Nina response @ the solar cycle length is observed :)

 

I also threw in a comparison of the pre-1968 data, because the inclusion of El Ninos thereafter will lead to a high reporting bias in years w/ higher return freq (esp. single digit years...)

(unfortunately even w/ a 150 year record, the sample size of multi-yr +ENSO/El Nino events is insufficient to provide any significant evidence for or against this observation)... :/

El-Nino-return-Period-1871-2014.jpg


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#117
Phil

Posted 15 March 2015 - 09:35 PM

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Thanks, I personally think you're one of the most intelligent individuals in regards to meteorology (along w/ Anthony Masiello) that I've come across since I started gaining a "true" interest in meteorology several years ago & your posts here over the last several weeks have cleared up a lot of things for me esp. in terms of expanding HCs & the stubborn HB-Greenland Vortex...


Thanks, much appriciated. Are you a met or met-student, by chance? You strike me as a very smart, well-read individual.

Who is Anthony Masiello, btw? Does he have a blog somewhere?

I completely agree w/ the bolded statement, hopefully the upcoming low solar regime, expanding HCs & warming IO don't throw us a curveball here...


Agreed. Looking short-term (climate-wise), I suspect we'll see a measurable retraction in the Pacific Hadley Cell(s) later in 2015 as we enter a stronger +ENSO & +QBO regimen. This is mostly statistically based, though (physical merits are debatable).

Looking longer term, based on what I know, low solar would favor a long term retraction of the Hadley Cells, but obviously that'd be a noisy, longitudinally unstable, multi-decadal process.


There's no doubt solar forcing regulates ENSO, I looked at the return period of El Ninos & La Ninas in 50-60 year window using the new CPC 30-yr moving base period climo for post 1950 events, 1971-2000 for 1900-1950 era & extended MEI to add a few more onto the list in the late 1800s & found a quasi-regular pattern of increasing La Nina intensity & longevity on a interdecadal scale of about 15-20 years... This behavior may just be a manifestation of the IPO (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation) or perhaps a lower frequency extension of the recharge-discharge oscillator ENSO theory consisting of multiple flips between the + and - ENSO base states. Regardless, what's worth looking at here is that this observed phenomena operates on time scales that are generally inconsistent w/ & fall in between that of ENSO & PDO (although there may be some overlap and these cycles take up a decent proportion of the ENSO/PDO variability). Over a period of about a decade and a half to 20 years or so we undergo a period of progressively increasing La Nina intensity, which then, after the last & largest La Nina event of the series, is followed by a multi year warm ENSO neutral or El Nino event, and then cycle repeats...


Definitely. The problem, in my opinion, is that there are many internally derived, full-system resonances that overlap with each other and external forcings too. So decoding them can be a real challenge.

It's complicated because, as our longer term systematic inertial resonances change, so does the relationship between external forcing and internal climate behavior. For example, the relationship between solar forcing and the ENSO/WC-HC relationship has changed significantly since the 1950s.

Here's an example of overlapping behavior within a local domain: The 11yr solar cycle is pretty evident in the PDO data when accounting for inertial lag (solar-->HC/PT relativity --> WC/AAM/MJO propagation, etc). However, that doesn't change the fact that low-freq tropical forcings (ENSO/QBO) govern it on a year-to-year scale, and that other relational resonances govern it on a multi-decadal scale. At least that's what the data leads me to believe.

So, I'd hesitate to suggest that ENSO is being "driven" by the IPO or PDO, because they're not independent from one another, external forcings, or any of the various long term inertial resonances. These perceived "cycles" may just be an artifact of the external-internal forcing tug-of-war, and will likely change their behavior many times over the next several centuries, in my opinion.


Strangely enough, this interdecadal cycle became relatively non-existant during the 1920s-40s & revived thereafter... Not sure exactly why. (Surely World War II didn't help matters...)[/font][/size]


Bingo. My view is that the relationship between external forcings and internal circulatory behavior changes as inertial, systematic resonances evolve over time. There are other theories out there, though.

What do you make of this 15-20 cycle? I'm certainly perplexed...


It's debatable, but there's plenty of evidence for a solar lead, in my opinion. Question is, is why the trailing statistical incoherence? And, is this a formative cycle or resultant cycle that will change sooner rather than later? There are a bunch of good papers that look at the polarity of the IMF and/or long term changes to the Brewer-Dobson circulation through both solar/SO^2 forcing when trying to decode the common oscillations, but I suspect there are inertially-rooted resonances involved on a timescale outside the scope of observational perception.

A big issue in climate science, I think, is that people view "time" differently than the system does..what seems like a long time to humans is a mere blink of an eye to the climate system..some of the resonances in the paleoclimate record are likely very long term (thousands of years)..something we're simply not capable of breaking down scientifically, for now.

I love your images, btw. Really enhances the coherence of your arguments (something I'm not capable of, haha). :D

The El Nino return frequency doesn't show nearly the spectral peak in the 15-20 year band, but an inversion of the La Nina response @ the solar cycle length is observed :)


I've never liked the idea that El Niño should be relationally inverse to La Niña. Usually you get a singular, coherent El Niño around/just after solar minimum as the HCs retract & BDC-PMT promotes high-freq tropical forcing dominance, from what I see. This singular El Niño is then (usually) followed by a multi-year La Niña during the comb into solar max, for the opposite reason(s), in my opinion.

Loving this discussion, btw. ;)
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#118
Chris

Posted 16 March 2015 - 07:24 AM

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Thanks, I personally think you're one of the most intelligent individuals in regards to meteorology (along w/ Anthony Masiello) that I've come across since I started gaining a "true" interest in meteorology several years ago & your posts here over the last several weeks have cleared up a lot of things for me esp. in terms of expanding HCs & the stubborn HB-Greenland Vortex...

 

The +NAM isn't helping... & interestingly the SLP difference b/t returning El Ninos & those w/ the strongest, subsequent rebound La Ninas actually resembles the AO SLP correlation for the same time period... Cool

 

SLP-Returning-El-Ninos-vs-Top-10-Bounce-

 

I completely agree w/ the bolded statement, hopefully the upcoming low solar regime, expanding HCs & warming IO don't throw us a curveball here...

 

There's no doubt solar forcing regulates ENSO, I looked at the return period of El Ninos & La Ninas in 50-60 year window using the new CPC 30-yr moving base period climo for post 1950 events, 1971-2000 for 1900-1950 era & extended MEI to add a few more onto the list in the late 1800s & found a quasi-regular pattern of increasing La Nina intensity & longevity on a interdecadal scale of about 15-20 years... This behavior may just be a manifestation of the IPO (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation) or perhaps a lower frequency extension of the recharge-discharge oscillator ENSO theory consisting of multiple flips between the + and - ENSO base states. Regardless, what's worth looking at here is that this observed phenomena operates on time scales that are generally inconsistent w/ & fall in between that of ENSO & PDO (although there may be some overlap and these cycles take up a decent proportion of the ENSO/PDO variability). Over a period of about a decade and a half to 20 years or so we undergo a period of progressively increasing La Nina intensity, which then, after the last & largest La Nina event of the series, is followed by a multi year warm ENSO neutral or El Nino event, and then cycle repeats...

Strangely enough, this interdecadal cycle became relatively non-existant during the 1920s-40s & revived thereafter... Not sure exactly why. (Surely World War II didn't help matters...)

 

15-20-yr-ENSO-La-Nina-Intensity-Variabil

 

ts.png

 

 

 

What do you make of this 15-20 cycle? I'm certainly perplexed...

 

Regardless, there is a legitimate spectral peak around 15-20 years in the La Ninas, which lays generally in between higher frequency ENSO persistence (4-7 years) & the appreciably lower frequency multidecadal PDO signal (25-30+ years). There's also a profound minimum in returning La Ninas corresponding to the solar cycle length...

 

La-Nina-Return-period-1871-2014-MEI-ENSO

I've added in a few key features as well, which generally correspond to the observed oscillations...

 

 

The El Nino return frequency doesn't show nearly the spectral peak in the 15-20 year band, but an inversion of the La Nina response @ the solar cycle length is observed :)

 

I also threw in a comparison of the pre-1968 data, because the inclusion of El Ninos thereafter will lead to a high reporting bias in years w/ higher return freq (esp. single digit years...)

(unfortunately even w/ a 150 year record, the sample size of multi-yr +ENSO/El Nino events is insufficient to provide any significant evidence for or against this observation)... :/

El-Nino-return-Period-1871-2014.jpg

Reposted from a different thread.


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#119
Webberweather53

Posted 16 March 2015 - 09:20 AM

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Thanks, much appriciated. Are you a met or met-student, by chance? You strike me as a very smart, well-read individual.

Who is Anthony Masiello, btw? Does he have a blog somewhere?


Agreed. Looking short-term (climate-wise), I suspect we'll see a measurable retraction in the Pacific Hadley Cell(s) later in 2015 as we enter a stronger +ENSO & +QBO regimen. This is mostly statistically based, though (physical merits are debatable).

Looking longer term, based on what I know, low solar would favor a long term retraction of the Hadley Cells, but obviously that'd be a noisy, longitudinally unstable, multi-decadal process.



Definitely. The problem, in my opinion, is that there are many internally derived, full-system resonances that overlap with each other and external forcings too. So decoding them can be a real challenge.

It's complicated because, as our longer term systematic inertial resonances change, so does the relationship between external forcing and internal climate behavior. For example, the relationship between solar forcing and the ENSO/WC-HC relationship has changed significantly since the 1950s.

Here's an example of overlapping behavior within a local domain: The 11yr solar cycle is pretty evident in the PDO data when accounting for inertial lag (solar-->HC/PT relativity --> WC/AAM/MJO propagation, etc). However, that doesn't change the fact that low-freq tropical forcings (ENSO/QBO) govern it on a year-to-year scale, and that other relational resonances govern it on a multi-decadal scale. At least that's what the data leads me to believe.

So, I'd hesitate to suggest that ENSO is being "driven" by the IPO or PDO, because they're not independent from one another, external forcings, or any of the various long term inertial resonances. These perceived "cycles" may just be an artifact of the external-internal forcing tug-of-war, and will likely change their behavior many times over the next several centuries, in my opinion.



Bingo. My view is that the relationship between external forcings and internal circulatory behavior changes as inertial, systematic resonances evolve over time. There are other theories out there, though.


It's debatable, but there's plenty of evidence for a solar lead, in my opinion. Question is, is why the trailing statistical incoherence? And, is this a formative cycle or resultant cycle that will change sooner rather than later? There are a bunch of good papers that look at the polarity of the IMF and/or long term changes to the Brewer-Dobson circulation through both solar/SO^2 forcing when trying to decode the common oscillations, but I suspect there are inertially-rooted resonances involved on a timescale outside the scope of observational perception.

A big issue in climate science, I think, is that people view "time" differently than the system does..what seems like a long time to humans is a mere blink of an eye to the climate system..some of the resonances in the paleoclimate record are likely very long term (thousands of years)..something we're simply not capable of breaking down scientifically, for now.

I love your images, btw. Really enhances the coherence of your arguments (something I'm not capable of, haha).  :D


I've never liked the idea that El Niño should be relationally inverse to La Niña. Usually you get a singular, coherent El Niño around/just after solar minimum as the HCs retract & BDC-PMT promotes high-freq tropical forcing dominance, from what I see. This singular El Niño is then (usually) followed by a multi-year La Niña during the comb into solar max, for the opposite reason(s), in my opinion.

Loving this discussion, btw.  ;)

 

 

Thanks, me too... Yeah, I'm a freshman met student @ NC State, I've been addicted to studying this stuff for the last 3-4 years or so, and am only starting to really sink my teeth into this information & contrive my own theorems as I go along & often find myself w/ 20+ windows open on my computer w/ scientific papers/literature I've found that I thought was "interesting" (yeah, at this stage I don't really have a personal preference, almost everything is interesting to me, lol (esp. Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves, the MJO, tropical cyclones etc...)

 

Anthony Masiello works in the DOT in New Jersey & also is a weather consultant, & I've found him to be very intelligent, interestingly, even though both of you have no relation to one another, I'll often see similar ideas perpetuated (regarding HC expansion, multi-yr ENSO, solar, etc...)...

 

He also used to put some interesting blogs together here (gotta admit, that's a pretty clever name for a weather site (I only use the GFS) lmao)

http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com

 

Yeah, as I mentioned/hinted at, this may be a manifestation or blend several different phenomena all attempting to operate at their own internal frequencies while having to contend w/ a smorgasbord of exterior influences. I immediately noticed the high amount of variance among the individual "15-20 year cycles" & was a very rough estimation based on that return freq. analysis & visual perception, but, this cycle isn't fully functional nor as evident w/o the application of strong La Ninas... The closest idea I've come across is the TPQDO presented by Stergios Misios

"The Influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the tropical atmosphere and oceans"

http://www.mpimet.mp...WEB_BzE_113.pdf

 

A majority of the other literature I've encountered on this topic to date are either modeling studies (which this one is in some sense) or try to draw correlations to AGW/CO2 (lmao!)...

Since we're on this issue, I should also mention I'm also not a big fan of the often-overused"stochastic" term, I often find thrown around in the research comm. on ENSO... Once they finally figure out that ENSO largely dictated by external forcings & resolve the contributions of these mechanisms (most notably, the Sun), our ENSO predictions will be improve markedly. Thus far, the climate/global models (esp CFSv2) seem to respond too strongly to intreaseasonal KW variance (as was certainly the case last year), and quite frankly, aren't worth the toilet paper they're plotted on... IMO based on previous experience & observation, the climate models are only useful for ENSO either when A) A significant ENSO event is already underway or B) we're located within a favorable short-term harmonic that's typically followed by a robust rebound response (i.e. a strong El Nino, or at the end of a multi-year La Nina) when the succeeding base state becomes (relatively :) ) easier to predict... 

 

I noticed this El Nino response right near the upward precipice of an oncoming solar cycle a while ago, and in all the solar cycles since 1900, 8 of them observed an El Nino right near the end of solar minimum, (before 1900 the ENs tend to juxtapose themselves within the core of the minimum itself). All of the post-1900 solar cycles w/o an accompanying El Nino occurred in a period w/ increasing solar activity (1930-1960), perhaps that's just mere coincidence?

sunspot-1900-2012-and-El-Ninos.png

 

 

Also, not surprisingly, the highest PDO values in the last cold multidecadal era (1945-75) were immediately within & just following solar maximums in the multi-year El Ninos of 1957-59, & 1968-1970... (For some reason when Bob Tisdale had plotted this for me a while back (you can probably tell its his work by the style of this graphic) he mixed up the labeling for the sunspots & PDO, but I'm sure it doesn't matter because the two phenomena are relatively easy to differentiate visually. Hopefully when I find some time later this summer I'll make a graphic myself that goes back to 1900...)

 

PDO-Sunspot-numbers-since-1950.png

 

 

We're seeing this +PDO response again this year (only this time we have a lot of help from last year's massive downwelling KW that rivaled the 1997-98 precursor, flushing some of the attendant warm water (most likely in the form of coastally trapped KWs & off-equatorial Rossby mode) into the subtropical N Pac & the west coast of the americas, GODAS monthly meridional surface flux/ SSH anomalies show this water directly related to this downwelling KW at least making it to Baja California & engulfing the NE Pac basin (hence, along w/ a vigorous AEJ/AEWs & wetter Sahel (allowing easterly waves to more efficiently maintain their footprints across the hostile tropical Atlantic & reach the more favorable haven of the Eastern Pac/CA Monsoonal gyre), this is why the eastern Pacific hurricane season was incredibly active last year, being the 3rd most active year on record & most active since 1992). The eastward migration & persistence of last winter's anomalously large GOA warm pool & the ongoing El Nino persistence & (multiple) failed attempts at one since 2012 have probably also assisted in pre-conditioning the atmosphere...

 

According to JISAO, this past winter's average PDO was the highest on record, easily beating out even 1940-41... Ouch

JISAO-Winter-PDO-1900-2015.jpg

 

 

Here is the entire top 10...

 

2014-15 2.40

1940-41 2.06

2002-03 1.98

1986-87 1.80

1935-36 1.77

1939-40 1.76

1905-06 1.60

1983-84 1.47

1976-77 1.33

 

1926-27 1.29


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#120
richard mann

Posted 16 March 2015 - 12:11 PM

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This may be behind the drought:
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki home s.html.en

 
Certainly perhaps warranting a thread of its own, this post isolated quoted here above is the initial post to a more extended discussion regarding the ENSO "Modoki", or "Modoki" element of ENSO looked at more as a wholetacked into the "California Climate" thread, larger "The West" section.
 
Accessible also of course more through the main "back arrow" attached to the quote, here's its main routing link more main just below.
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/177-california-weather-climate/?p=74301


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#121
Chris

Posted 17 March 2015 - 08:42 AM

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....

 

 

. Hopefully when I find some time later this summer I'll make a graphic myself that goes back to 1900...)

 

 

Woodfortrees.org is a decent spot for making graphs.



#122
Chris

Posted 19 March 2015 - 06:40 AM

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Super Niño hype starting already? Sheesh, this is earlier than last year.

Looks to me like a typical moderate Niño on the way for winter 2015-16, possibly high-end weak, before we slide into a -ENSO response sometime in Aug-Oct 2016.

The +QBO waveguide and lagged HC/WC return cycle from +solar forcing will allow for an eastward progression in the low-freq forcing a through the warm season, which will try to amplify the Niño between Jul-Sep, but it'll hit a glass ceiling there-after, IMO.

 

 

 

The comparisons to the precursor Pacific MJO wave & 1997-98 El Nino have drawn a lot of attention lately, & quite frankly, for a few days, it was completely blowing up my twitter feed. I learned after last year, the importance of eastern hemisphere interference during the heart of the summer... 

http://www.wsi.com/b...strong-el-nino/

 

This year's MJO pulse is one of the strongest MJO events ever observed, beating out 1997 for the same time period, hence the "hype"...

199701.phase.90days.gif.small.gif

 

RMM-MJO-March-16-Last-40-Days.gif

 

Of course, the other super El Nino of 1982-83 had little-no Pacific spring MJO support whatsoever, but that's none of my business... :)

JFM 1982 http://www.bom.gov.a...s.gif.small.gif

 

AMJ 1982

http://www.bom.gov.a...s.gif.small.gif

 

 

 

 

If nothing else, it will be interesting to see what effect this MJO cycle has on the current global pattern.


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#123
Phil

Posted 19 March 2015 - 07:55 AM

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If nothing else, it will be interesting to see what this MJO cycle has on the current global pattern.


Oh yes, I agree with this. Kinda reminds me of 2003 on 'roids as far as the polar-mid latitude circulations are concerned..
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#124
Webberweather53

Posted 19 March 2015 - 06:38 PM

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The 1990-95 +ENSO event is interesting now that you mention it... (BTW, that should have been a huge clue to hurricane forecasters that an AMO flip was imminent following a 5 year string of failed Ninos w/ 2 "real" events (1991-92 & 1994-95)). I've had extreme difficulty coming up w/ historical analogs for this upcoming hurricane season & 1994 is the only noteworthy modern-day +PDO/-AMO/Multi Yr El Nino analog (1977 isn't terrible compared to what's available, but is a distant 2nd, IMO) Even though I'm not a huge fan of pre-satellite/1950-era SST data, I'm very desperate this year... Yeah, the Pacific/PDO correspondence to the 1939-42 series is uncanny, but the AMO was much healthier & we were earlier into the multidecadal +AMO regime that began in 1926 w/ high solar activity & these conditions may have played a role on the appreciable rebound that was observed later in the 1940s & 50s. For this year, you have to go back to 1930 to find anything worth looking @...

 

This year...

Global-SSTs-Mar-1-17-2015.gif

 

 

1994

 

Mar-1-31-1994-Global-SST.gif

 

 

+PDO/-AMO/Multi Year Pre-1950 El Ninos (Monthly Kaplan SSTs). 

 

Mar-1930-Global-SSTs-.gif

 

Mar-1914-Global-SSTs.gif

 

(Yeah, it is a little demoralizing to see 1914 make this list)

track.gif

 

 

Mar-1912-Global-SSTs.gif

 

Mar-1905-Global-SSTs.gif

 

 

 

 

Here's a quick plot of the hurricane tracks in those seasons (as I'm sure you're already well aware, keep in mind the relatively poor observation network & pair of World Wars also means there are likely some missing storms out in the far eastern Atlantic & into the subtropics that could result in a low bias in reported ACE in this portion of the basin, but I don't think that's going to matter much anyway here because conditions look horrendous east of the Lesser Antilles, a +IOD would be the final nail in the coffin.) The overall amount of activity doesn't look too dissimilar to last year (if not slightly lower), but the most significant differences lay in the uptick in activity over the Gulf of Mexico & lack thereof in the far eastern Atlantic. Last year, the Gulf of Mexico was virtually dead aside from the transient Bay of Campeche cyclone which, in conjunction w/ the CA Monsoon gyre, remains the one persistent "bright spot" in the Atlantic despite the faltering AMO/falling annual & interdecadal hurricane ACE.

 

5-Year-Running-Mean-Atlantic-Hurricane-A

Atlantic-Hurricane-ACE-1851-2014-1024x35

 

 

We likely won't see a repeat of last season in the GOM, (@ least to the same extent) for the upcoming season...

2015-Hurricane-Season-Analogs-Hurricane-



#125
richard mann

Posted 26 April 2015 - 04:08 PM

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Challenges with ENSO in Today’s Climate Models
Author:  Eric Guilyardi
Friday, April 24, 2015

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/challenges-enso-today’s-climate-models
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/flooding-atacama-desert-how-did-happen

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim full.html
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#126
Webberweather53

Posted 28 April 2015 - 10:55 AM

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Here was a post I made on another blog that is worth sharing here:

 

In the context of all the multi-year El Ninos in the "reliable" historical record & in terms of the SOI this year is rather unimpressive. (even though the SOI is a noisy index, I've taken a tri-monthly mean to smooth out the smaller-scale variance w/ a tri-monthly mean (>90 day), exceeding the upper bounds of intraseasonal variability (30-90 days)) We got off to a fast start last year, but we have since fallen off & given that the 30 day SOI is running near -3, our new tri-monthly value is about in the middle of the pack ~ -4.5, only beating out the weak 2nd year El Ninos of 1885-86, 1914-15, 1958-59, & 1977-78, & is of course a good distance behind all of the moderate-strong 2nd year El Ninos of 1899-00, 1905-06, 1940-41 & 1987-88. This evidence alone suggests a moderate event is most likely on the way, & forecasting a strong NINO is probably unreasonable from a historical perspective, esp. considering that the highest ONI value recorded since 1900 in any 2nd year+ El Nino is only +1.6C (1987-88)...

(I circled where we currently stand this year, I'm not very impressed...)

 

Tri-Monthly-Mean-SOI-Multi-Year-El-Ninos

 

This year's intensification right after the solstice (JFM-FMA) is rather unusual historically speaking & 1987-88 is the most recent event to experience this sort of odd behavior. Considering this rather unusual behavior for a 2nd year El Nino the strong El Nino of 1987-88 is thus is a useful metric for comparison.

We're way behind in most, if not all departments, including but not limited to SLP, OLR, WWBs, SSTs vs the 1986-88 event & things better change in a hurry if we're going to have a legitimate shot @ seeing a strong El Nino...

JFM 1987 vs 2015 Eq Pacific SSTs

 

JFM-Eq-Pacific-SSTs-1987-88-vs-2015-16.p

 

JFM 1987 vs 2015 Eq Pacific OLR

 

JFM-1987-88-vs-2015-16-OLR-Eq-Pacific.pn

 

 

JFM 1987 vs 2015 U850 anomalies

 

JFM-1987-88-vs-2015-16-U850-Eq-Pacific.p


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#127
Webberweather53

Posted 28 April 2015 - 11:07 AM

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JFM 1987 Eq Pacific SLP Anomalies

JFM-1987-Eq-Pacific-SLP.png

 

JFM 2015 Eq Pacific SLP Anomalies (the exact same scaling was used as in the preceding picture)

 

JFM-2015-Eq-Pacific-SLP.png

Even w/ the recent intensification of this EN, we're still trailing 1987-88 by a substantial margin

 

Global-SSTs-1987-88-vs-2015-16-El-Ninos-

 

The monthly mean surface currents from OSCAR also look rather unimpressive to say the least... Not only are the westerly anomalies fairly weak but they're also being directed well north of the equator, esp. in comparison to 1997-98, 2009-10, & last year which are currently in front of us in this department. Obviously, we shouldn't have much trouble, beating out last year, but a strong event isn't likely whatsoever here... We'll probably see the maximum ONI finish just under +1.5C (1.1-1.4), but it wouldn't be surprising nor alarming in any sense to see the weekly NINO SSTs under the OISSTv2 dataset briefly brush on or exceed the strong threshold, but it likely won't be enough to allow this event to receive official designation...

OSCAR-Monthly-Surface-Currents-April-15-


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#128
Webberweather53

Posted 28 April 2015 - 11:18 AM

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I personally think the 1884-86 multi-year El Nino series (the 1st mutli-yr NINO in the extended MEI) provides the best set of analogs to the current set-up.

Using the nearest available 30 year base period (1872-1901), the winter z500 the last few years matches up nicely... 

1884-85's semblance to 2013-14 is stunning.

DJF-N-hem-z500-Winter-1884-85-e143014544

 

DJF-N-hem-z500-Winter-2013-14.png

Amazingly, (aside from the proper recognition of the -AMO stint) this set of years was even able to pick up on the development/easterly progression of the anomalously large warm pool ("blob") in the GOA in the preceding winter which has now morphed into the classic +PDO signature w/ a ring of extremely warm water on the west coast of N America...

 

1883-84-1884-85-vs-2013-14-2014-15-Winte

After seeing what occurred in the 1880s, I've (finally) become a bit more skeptical that the multi-year current AMO crash is indicative of a long-term multidecadal flip. The AMO in the decades leading up to the 1880s (like what's been observed) was predominantly positive, but there was a "sudden" & rather unusual multi-year dip in the mid 1880s before the AMO began to recover following the 1884-86 multi-year El Nino & it came back w/ ferocity in the 1890s (peaking likely ~1893) before finally going cold at the turn of the 20th century. I surely hope we don't continue to follow 1884-86's example, esp. given the 7 hurricane landfalls on the Gulf Coast in 1886... The 1880s even get the solar forcing/tendencies right, the lower(ing) solar activity during this period also makes the 1880s certainly makes it even more attractive as a set of analogs...

Solar-Cycle-Amplitude-vs-SC-24.png

 

Even though the 1884-86 comparison seems crazy given the concerns over data retrieval techniques, coverage, sampling, etc. if you look @ the global oceanic area sampling coverage, 1883-86 actually sits within a mini-peak in observations, w/ a peak at just over 20% coverage, which is less than half of current coverage (at least through 2007, & I'm sure this percentage has increased @ least slightly since then), however it's comparable to what's observed near the start of NOAA ESRL's operational composite datasets (that begin in January 1948) & the observational network still easily surpasses World War I & II. Thus, this offers more support than should be usually given for the 19th & 20th century reanalysis years, that these are actually legitimate analogs...

 

IOCADS-Global-Ocean-Coastal-Area-observa

Here are the # of monthly 2x2 degree observations over the North Pacific during 1883-85. There were generally <5 ship reports on average over this entire period around/north of 40N except along the immediate west coast of North America

 

N-Pac-SST-observations-IOCADS-2-degree.p


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#129
Webberweather53

Posted 28 April 2015 - 11:24 AM

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In spite of the obvious potential errors/reliability of the earlier portions of the reanalysis datasets, it's hard to ignore the stark similarities to 1884-86, w/ current SSTs among those...

 

MAM-Global-SSTs-1885.png

 

Global SSTs MAM (thus far) this year

 

Mar-1-Apr-26-2015-Global-SSTs.gif



#130
Webberweather53

Posted 28 April 2015 - 11:29 AM

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This El Nino emergence in the last 2 years, beginning primarily in the central Pacific & progressing eastward w/ increasing time is a reversion back to the classical +PDO onset we observed from 1976-77 thru 2002 & may hint @ the possibility that we're seeing a multidecadal flip in the PDO to its warm phase. Again, the last event to initiate in the central Pacific was in 2002 (may I remind you, this happened well in advance of the wintertime +PDO stint in the 2002-03 winter), which occurred at the end of the last warm PDO era... 

JFMA Eq Pacific Monthly SSTs (2014 top, 2015 bottom)

 

Eq-Pacific-Monthly-SSTs-JFMA-2014-2015-P

For some time, I was not a proponent nor did I understand the physical mechanisms (nor where to find them) in regards to the PDO & individual ENSO events, however, it's become very clear to me that the multidecadal PDO phase has a substantial influence on the lag/leads of the TNI & the initiation of El Ninos, and the longevity of El Ninos...

From the JISAO dataset, I found that the 7 highest & 8 of the top 10 +PDO winters (DJF) since 1900 occurred in concert w/ multi-year El Ninos/+ENSO events (italicized/bold)...

2014-15 +2.40
1940-41 +2.06
2002-03 +1.98
1986-87 +1.80
1935-36 +1.77
1939-40 +1.76
1905-06 +1.60
1983-84 +1.47
1976-77 +1.33
1926-27 +1.29

Looking at the NCDC data the top 4 +PDO winters & 8 of the top 10 since 1854 occurred during multi-yr +ENSO events/El Ninos

1940-41 +2.81
1941-42 +2.15
2014-15 +1.73
1986-87 +1.63
1983-84 +1.57
1907-08 +1.56
1935-36 +1.52
1939-40 +1.51
1884-85 +1.44 (hey would you look @ that, even 1884-85 made the cut :) )
1976-77 +1.38

Even though the actual difference in PDO means between all El Ninos and multi-year +ENSO/El Ninos was only .142, a two sided t-test w/ 37 df, between the winter PDO values in the Multi-Year +ENSO/El Nino years (n=38) & all El Ninos (n=42) revealed a p-value of .0027 & t-score of 3.2215, which is "very statistically significant" & of course the sample sizes are large enough to be analyzed, & they easily exceed the general threshold of 30 for a "normal" distribution. The same test for strictly multi-year El Ninos only vs all El Ninos revealed slightly less statistical significance...



#131
Webberweather53

Posted 28 April 2015 - 11:38 AM

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For future reference, I will drop all the +PDO El Nino monthly SST animations from the Australia BOM here... Note, how these NINOs, characteristic of the +PDO tend begin in the Central Pacific & progress eastward w/ increasing time in their embryonic stages. 

 

198283_sst_anim.gif

 

 

198688_sst_anim.gif

 

 

199192_sst_anim.gif

 

 

199495_sst_anim.gif



#132
Webberweather53

Posted 28 April 2015 - 11:45 AM

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199798_sst_anim.gif

 

 

200203_sst_anim.gif

 

 

This behavior began to reverse during the onset of the 2006-07 & 2009-10 El Ninos with these events largely initiating in the far eastern Pacific & spreading westward w/ time in their early stages (like the pre 1976-77 El Ninos), and of course this behavior was observed before the subsequent multi-yr PDO crashes that followed these events.

 

200607_sst_anim.gif

 

 

200910_sst_anim.gif



#133
Webberweather53

Posted 28 April 2015 - 12:31 PM

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It's rather unfortunate that the land-based data is nowhere near as robust as oceanic observational network during the 19th century (except for perhaps in Europe) & NCDC climate divisional data only goes back to 1895, it would be interesting to see how the winters of the 1880s & 1870s stack up... In terms of relative global impact, the ENSO events in the late 19th century were quite extreme and according to Aceituno et al http://download-v2.s...4e8ecee777e56dd

 

When using a 31yr moving average, the global warming triggered by the 1877-78 El Nino more than doubles that of 1997-98 (the next closest rival)

Global-Surface-Temp-anomaly-ONDJFM-ENSO-

 

 

The expanse of warmth in Canada & the northern US on the lee side of the Rockies in 1877-78 (even using the same base period) rivals that of modern-day blowtorch El Ninos & for Minnesota in particular, according to http://climate.umn.e.../warmwint2.html

 it was a full 4F warmer statewide than the next closest winter of 1997-98. Lol, the power of natural variability...

 

DJF-1877-78-El-Nino-N-America-Temp-Anoma

 

 

 

These excerpts from this paper are pretty telling...

 

page 5

 

 

"after removing the long-term trend by subtracting a centered 31-year moving average. Although there is considerable uncertainty associated with estimates of global temperature anomalies during the second half of the nineteenth century, it is nonetheless remarkable that the magnitude of the 1877–1878 warm pulse, superimposed on the long-term trend, almost doubles the next largest in magnitude over the entire record."

page 8 

 

 

"The anomalously mild 1877–1878 winter in the upper Midwest and southern central Canada is another feature typical of major El Niño episodes. The +8.7C mean temperature anomaly at Winnipeg (49.9N, 97.2W) and +7.3C at Minneapolis (45.0N, 93.2W) from Dec. 1877 to Feb. 1878 exceeded that during the 1982–1983 El Niño, and were the largest ever recorded during the instrumental era (Kiladis and Diaz 1986)" 


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#134
Webberweather53

Posted 29 April 2015 - 12:13 PM

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Hopefully, w/ this 2nd year El Nino, we'll be able to eradicate the current -EPO/+TNH dominated configuration & the Hudson Bay-Greenland Vortex because it is one of (if not the) primary reason why California continues to suffer from their worst drought since at least the late 1980s if not 1975-77...

 

I personally get frustrated with the over-arching blanket ENSO statements about California rainfall, (i.e. El Nino=wet, La Nina=Dry) there are many instances (like last year or 1976-77) where this doesn't necessarily work...

 

The N America z500 in the top 10 wettest and driest winters in California are pretty self-explanatory as far as I'm concerned, it's virtually a cut & paste of the Tropical-Northern Hemisphere (TNH), which is a reflection of the intensity of the Hudson Bay Vortex & the eastward the eastward extent of the Pacific Jet (wet California=-TNH, weak Hudson Bay-Greenland Vortex, dry California=+TNH, strong Hudson Bay Greenland Vortex). I've seen some patterns/weather phenomena correspond to various teleconnections, but this is about as straightforward/robust as I've ever seen...

 

 N America z500 Top 10 Wettest California Winters (DJF) 1948-Present

Top-10-Wettest-California-Winters-N-Amer

 

 

 

N America z500 Top 10 Driest California Winters 1948-Present

Top-10-Drirst-California-Winters-N-Ameri

 

 

DJF N America z500 correlation to the TNH

DJF-N-America-z500-Correlation-TNH.gif

 

 

This is also confined by NOAA ESRL's DJF precip correlation. The area in & around San Francisco appears to be the center of attention w/ regards to the TNH w/ the correlation topping out near about .7 (moderate-strong). ENSO doesn't hold a candle to the TNH in terms of California precipitation...

DJF US precip corrlation to NINO 3.4

 

US-precip-correlation-DJF-NINO3.4.gif

 

 

DJF US precip correlation to the TNH (same scaling as above)

US-DJF-Precip-Correlation-TNH.gif

 

 

ENSO is honestly ok, but compared to the TNH & the patterns that lead to extreme anomalies in California winter precipitation, it projects about 25-30 degrees too far east, leaving plenty of room for error...

NINO-3.4-DJF-N-America-z500.gif

 


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#135
Webberweather53

Posted 29 April 2015 - 04:32 PM

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The underlying +PNA/+PDO circulation that has dominated since early 2013 will come to an end sometime in 2016. Might as well enjoy the nice weather now.

After 2015-16, I suspect we'll have to wait until about 2019 for the next actual Niño, and it'll be followed by a strong multi-year Niña in the early 2020s. So, not much in the way of warmth to look forward to after 2015.

 

 

Hmm... this last statement is interesting, I'm actually curious to see how you arrived at this conclusion. I personally don't think this is all that crazy given this actually the ENSO progression we observed following the 1884-86 multi-year El Nino. Please feel free to give as complex, detailed, &/or thorough of an explanation as you like... :)



#136
Phil

Posted 29 April 2015 - 06:16 PM

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Hmm... this last statement is interesting, I'm actually curious to see how you arrived at this conclusion. I personally don't think this is all that crazy given this actually the ENSO progression we observed following the 1884-86 multi-year El Nino. Please feel free to give as complex, detailed, &/or thorough of an explanation as you like... :)


I don't have much time currently, but to summarize, I use a Sun/QBO based formula, superimposed on very low-freq (multiyear) trends in AAM propagation (Hadley/Walker centered) as a reflection of systematic inertia and the responsible spatial imbalance. These behaviors can be extrapolated almost 10yrs into the future so long as you have the right input variables.

For example, this formula predicts an El Niño at every solar minimum...it accurately predicted the 2009-10 Niño, the 2010-11 inertial rebound/multi year -ENSO, the effective ENSO shutdown from 2012-2014, and what should be a legitimate Niño in 2015-16.
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#137
Webberweather53

Posted 29 April 2015 - 08:27 PM

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I don't have much time currently, but to summarize, I use a Sun/QBO based formula, superimposed on very low-freq (multiyear) trends in AAM propagation (Hadley/Walker centered) as a reflection of systematic inertia and the responsible spatial imbalance. These behaviors can be extrapolated almost 10yrs into the future so long as you have the right input variables.

For example, this formula predicts an El Niño at every solar minimum...it accurately predicted the 2009-10 Niño, the 2010-11 inertial rebound/multi year -ENSO, the effective ENSO shutdown from 2012-2014, and what should be a legitimate Niño in 2014-15.

 

Cool, yeah I would like to know more information about this when you have the time &/or if there is any literature that could direct me in the right direction, out of all weather forecasting, I find seasonal, interdecadal (esp. in regards to ENSO) the most intriguing.. It's honestly amazing how close this sounds to the 1883-86, the juxtaposition, intensity, & phase of the solar cycle....

cycl12.gif

 

sunspot.jpg

 

to go along w/ the falling background & the extremely similar reconstructed SST/z500 configurations and the proper PDO/AMO multidecadal phases (& even behavior). The next closest (& IMO, still a distant) analog w/ all of these qualities (except for the AMO phase) would probably be 1968-70...

 

 

Even without looking beyond what occurred following these events it can be inferred that a weak-moderate double La Nina followed by a strong(er) El Nino then deep multi-year La Nina (w/ the "Super" La Ninas of the mid 1970s & early-mid 1890s being among the strongest/longest in the entire record) would be what we should generally anticipate ENSO-wise through ~2020. As you can probably tell, even though I think mathematical models are fine, I prefer to lean extremely heavily on historical analogs, I like the feeling of having a precedent (or series of them) in the back of my mind before/while I contrive ideas about we're headed...

 

BTW, here are the US temperature maps since the end of winter of those 2015 hurricane season analogs I posted about on here back on March 19th (1905, 1912, 1914, 1930, 1959, 1977, 1991, 1994, & 2014) (used top 5 post 1950 yrs & added last year a few days after that post. I double weighted last year & 1994 for obvious reasons). $$$....

 

2015-Hurricane-Season-Analogs-Mar-Apr-te

 

 

6-10 Day CPC temp probabilities are also similar to what these analogs show in May... Looks to be a year w/ a fast start to the summer w/ +PMM/ENSO/PDO cutting down temperatures, particularly towards the heart of the nation during the heart of the summer.

 

610temp.new.gif

 

 

MJJ-US-temps-2015-hurricane-season-analo



#138
richard mann

Posted 29 April 2015 - 08:29 PM

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.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/04/is-strong-el-nino-finally-coming.html
 

I don't have much time currently[. B]ut to summarize, I use a Sun/QBO based formula, superimposed on very low-freq (multiyear) trends in AAM propagation (Hadley/Walker centered) as a reflection of systematic inertia and the responsible spatial imbalance. These behaviors can be extrapolated almost 10yrs into the future so long as you have the right input variables.

For example, this formula predicts an El Niño at every solar minimum...it accurately predicted the 2009-10 Niño, the 2010-11 inertial rebound/multi year -ENSO, the effective ENSO shutdown from 2012-2014, ....... and what should be a legitimate Niño in 2014-15.


.. Who's formula with connected elements omitted with this summary for whatever reason. Why it tends to work presumably forthcoming at some future date. And where regarding its "predictive" abilities, by what standards, also not considered an important idea here apparently.  (Valid observations. ?)
 
"Summary". ... One with quite a few vague avenues created where considering its main elements as a general consequence, as I view it leastwise.
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/853-april-2015-pacific-northwest-observations/?p=76911

 


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#139
Webberweather53

Posted 06 May 2015 - 08:42 AM

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I just found the file to the monthly PDO, NINO 1-2, 3, 3.4, 4 SSTs/Anomalies for the new ERSSTv4 (Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature Version 4) dataset that was released only several months ago w/ literature just recently published this past February. 

This file is up to date & extends back to 1851...
http://www1.ncdc.noa...ersst/v4/index/

Since I finally have some time on my hands, I'm going to calculate the tri-monthly averaged NINO 3.4 region SSTs (ONI) since 1871 (this date is somewhat arbitrary, but in order to stay consistent over the entire dataset  (i.e. it's not possible to calculate a 30-yr moving base period for most yrs in the 1850s & 60s because there's no preceding data) & because this is when the extended MEI data begins... using current NOAA's methodology, w/ a moving 30-year base period to account for the significant warming trend in the NINO region SSTs since the mid-late 19th century. Looks like I have quite a project on my hands... I'll provide an update here when I finish this analysis.


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#140
Chris

Posted 06 May 2015 - 11:15 AM

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I just found the file to the monthly PDO, NINO 1-2, 3, 3.4, 4 SSTs/Anomalies for the new ERSSTv4 (Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature Version 4) dataset that was released only several months ago w/ literature just recently published this past February. 

This file is up to date & extends back to 1851...
http://www1.ncdc.noa...ersst/v4/index/

Since I finally have some time on my hands, I'm going to calculate the tri-monthly averaged NINO 3.4 region SSTs (ONI) since 1871 (this date is somewhat arbitrary, but in order to stay consistent over the entire dataset  (i.e. it's not possible to calculate a 30-yr moving base period for most yrs in the 1850s & 60s because there's no preceding data) & because this is when the extended MEI data begins... using current NOAA's methodology, w/ a moving 30-year base period to account for the significant warming trend in the NINO region SSTs since the mid-late 19th century. Looks like I have quite a project on my hands... I'll provide an update here when I finish this analysis.

 

Nice find.  Too bad the files weren't in a more spreadsheet friendly form.


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#141
Webberweather53

Posted 06 May 2015 - 05:26 PM

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Nice find.  Too bad the files weren't in a more spreadsheet friendly form.

 

That's why you manually put the data into a spreadsheet yourself... :) Nothing like spending a few days straight to get the monthly ERSSTv3b PDO data since 1854 correct



#142
Chris

Posted 07 May 2015 - 09:41 AM

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That's why you manually put the data into a spreadsheet yourself... :) Nothing like spending a few days straight to get the monthly ERSSTv3b PDO data since 1854 correct

 

Even though the 19th century PDO numbers are suspect, I added them to my chart.

 

screenshot_12.png


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#143
Webberweather53

Posted 18 May 2015 - 01:41 PM

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Nice find.  Too bad the files weren't in a more spreadsheet friendly form.

 

I've got a VERY long ways to go, but I thought you & the other bloggers here would like to see this. I have calculated the 1870-1899 tri-monthly ONI using the CPC's methodology of a 30 yr sliding base period (updated every 5 years). According to this new ERSSTv4 dataset (which is currently not being used (at least not yet) by the CPC), there were 2 "Super" El Ninos in the pre-1900 era (1877-78 & 1888-89)... I plan on leaving the data from the individual datasets to the nearest hundredth, but I think it would best to combine the ONI data from all major available SST reconstructions (ERSSTv4, ERSSTv3b, HADISST, HADCRUT4, Kaplan Extended V2, OISSTv2, & IOCADS) into a "super ensemble" averaged to the nearest tenth, which when supplemented w/ Wolter's Extended MEI, will lend increased confidence to & reveal a substantial information about ENSO behavior going back to the mid-late 19th century. 

ERSSTv4-ONI-1870-1899.png


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#144
Chris

Posted 18 May 2015 - 02:28 PM

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I've got a VERY long ways to go, but I thought you & the other bloggers here would like to see this. I have calculated the 1870-1899 tri-monthly ONI using the CPC's methodology of a 30 yr sliding base period (updated every 5 years). According to this new ERSSTv4 dataset (which is currently not being used (at least not yet) by the CPC), there were 2 "Super" El Ninos in the pre-1900 era (1877-78 & 1888-89)... I plan on leaving the data from the individual datasets to the nearest hundredth, but I think it would best to combine the ONI data from all major available SST reconstructions (ERSSTv4, ERSSTv3b, HADISST, HADCRUT4, Kaplan Extended V2, OISSTv2, & IOCADS) into a "super ensemble" averaged to the nearest tenth, which when supplemented w/ Wolter's Extended MEI, will lend increased confidence to & reveal a substantial information about ENSO behavior going back to the mid-late 19th century. 

ERSSTv4-ONI-1870-1899.png

 

Nice work!


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#145
Webberweather53

Posted 23 May 2015 - 11:24 AM

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Nice work!

 

Thanks. Here's the rest of the data, the time series, and the intensity of the ENSO events since 1870. I hope I can generate enough publicity to get NOAA & CPC to upgrade their ONI data from ERSSTv3b to ERSSTv4 or at least offer both versions. I also plan to release the ONI individually & into a conglomerate set from the following datasets & for the respective time periods when I get the data calculated.

blank-1024x753.png

 

ERSSTv4-ONI-ENSO-Event-Intensity-1024x75

 

ERSSTv4-1870-Present-ONI-Timeseries-1024



#146
Webberweather53

Posted 23 May 2015 - 11:25 AM

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Nice work!

 

ERSSTv4-Tri-Monthly-ONI-1900-29-756x1024

 

ERSSTv4-ONI-1930-1959-678x1024.png

 

ERSSTv4-ONI-1960-1989-913x1024.png

 

ERSSTv4-ONI-1990-2015-1024x999.png


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#147
Phil

Posted 23 May 2015 - 07:50 PM

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Amazing work dude!
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#148
Utrex

Posted 28 May 2015 - 08:16 AM

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The EMCWF and GFS both indicate an increase in Phase 1 MJO activity. The MJO pulse should be situated over Africa/Western Africa. In addition, this may cause westerlies to develop over the Central Pacific through the Galapagos...

http://www.cpc.ncep....se_51m_full.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....e_21m_small.gif

#149
Chris

Posted 28 May 2015 - 09:53 AM

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The EMCWF and GFS both indicate an increase in Phase 1 MJO activity. The MJO pulse should be situated over Africa/Western Africa. In addition, this may cause westerlies to develop over the Central Pacific through the Galapagos...

http://www.cpc.ncep....se_51m_full.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....e_21m_small.gif

 

Shows up in this forecast too

 

u_anom_30_5_S_5_N.png


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#150
richard mann

Posted 28 May 2015 - 10:11 AM

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.. Tired of the time it's taking this page to load in.


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Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: ENSO, Sun, QBO, KW, MJO, etc