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ENSO thread

ENSO Sun QBO KW MJO etc

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#151
richard mann

Posted 28 May 2015 - 10:14 AM

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The EMCWF and GFS both indicate an increase in Phase 1 MJO activity. The MJO pulse should be situated over Africa/Western Africa. In addition, this may cause westerlies to develop over the Central Pacific through the Galapagos...

http://www.cpc.ncep....se_51m_full.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....e_21m_small.gif

 
 

Shows up in this forecast too
 
u_anom_30_5_S_5_N.png

 
The area around the Galapagos has warmed significantly during May. 
 
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim full.html


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#152
richard mann

Posted 29 May 2015 - 10:57 AM

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Putting aside all of the more complex paradigms / schemes suggested (sketchily.) above @ @, my sense is that this past year's leaning toward a more full scale type Nino (indictions initially suggesting something more strong, stalling out.) has been indicative of certain (some.) more main, elements connected to the potential having begun to take shape, …
 
 Here I'm thinking of a more general separation of main cold from main heat (or heating potential), i.e. cold more focused and better consolidated within the higher latitudes both north and south, with warmth, more tropically or equatorially focusedas a result, or inverse, of cold's stronger focus. 
 
.. And others having been moving in the right direction, if not having followed through more. Conducive to a Nina, even stronger, then shifting away from this leaning.
 
Here I'm looking at main pattern progression / evolution more. 
 
Both of these ideas of course involving more basic warmth or warming potential, both more kinetic along with extent where focused more strongly, set against cold and its relative density, both more generally, and where moving. 
 
With this general idea, I'm thinking, that the main warmer and colder focuses that I've suggested here above, just may continuewith perhaps even growing more well-defined and apparentwhere looking more ahead. This while main pattern evolution moves (progresses. / continues.) "more" in line with, or lending more to, a stronger potential for the development of a more significant Nino.


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#153
richard mann

Posted 30 May 2015 - 09:13 PM

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(.. cross-reference.)
 

Hopes rise for a strong El Niño to ease California drought

http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-el-nino-returns-20150528-story.html


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#154
Chris

Posted 01 June 2015 - 07:07 AM

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For those interested in the upcoming El Niño...

Essentially, without getting into much detail, a La Niña tendency is noted during the upswing in solar activity following solar minimum, with an El Niño response lagging the TSI peak by a few years. This paper was published back in 2008-09, and nailed the upcoming event:

http://journals.amet.../2009JCLI2619.1
 


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#155
richard mann

Posted 01 June 2015 - 07:32 PM

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Just moving this over from where it had been, attached to the above, over in the main general thread for May for the PNW.
 

Viewable as a positive more certainly, where looking at and still only working to come up with a more concrete (an actual.) cause for something, the main route to helping to assure that whatever being pondered, remains unclear, is marked with a sign saying, .. you are "Now Entering Coincidence".
 
.. Lot a "cycles" working in the big world out there. Of varying period-lengths.


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#156
Chris

Posted 04 June 2015 - 02:36 PM

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Look where the greatest lift/convergence is forecast in the foreseeable future..in the IO.

ud6kC3.jpg

That would suggest a cessation of the WWB regime west of 160W, which is exactly what is modeled as trades are forecast to strengthen in the western Niño regions, which is the source for KW initiation:

800.jpg



#157
richard mann

Posted 04 June 2015 - 04:09 PM

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Strong territory (ONI wise) would be +1.5C for three consecutive months. Right now, as suspected, IO convection has erupted via a CCKW passage and is beginning to destructively interfere with the Niño-state Walker Cell.

I'm having a hard time finding any evidence supporting much additional strengthening of this Niño.


.. Keep lookin'. Would be my suggestion.

 With trying not to limit your scope too severely.


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#158
Webberweather53

Posted 04 June 2015 - 05:25 PM

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Here's the updated 1990-Present ERSSTv4 tri-monthly ONI, using May's data that just emerged a day or two ago. Unlike it's relative ERSSTv3b, v4 has yet to officially fulfill the CPC's 5 successive +.5C or > tri-monthly requirement to be classified as an El Nino & we likely won't see this threshold satisfied until JJA. Even though some are continuing to faithfully tout this year's El Nino, it is rather unimpressive from a historical standpoint. 21st highest (85th percentile) overall, & ranked 11th highest in MAM among El Ninos, coming in at +0.68C. Meh.

 

ERSSTv4-ONI-1990-2015-1024x999.png


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#159
Phil

Posted 04 June 2015 - 07:18 PM

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I'm really not a fan of ERSST, for a variety of reasons. It's constantly being updated w/ a bunch of shady homogenizations and does not adequately utilize satellite observations.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

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#160
Webberweather53

Posted 05 June 2015 - 06:24 AM

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I'm really not a fan of ERSST, for a variety of reasons. It's constantly being updated w/ a bunch of shady homogenizations and does not adequately utilize satellite observations.

 

ERSSTv3 used satellite data, however after several attempts to correct a residual cold bias in the data that emanated from cloud contamination of infrared based data from AVHRR for example (which is used in the NESDIS SST product,) most weren't sure how to correct this. As I note below from Huang et al's paper that was published last October, ERSSTv4 has taken a few more strides to integrate satellite data into the dataset, as opposed to ERSSTv3b. Of course about 75% of the historical record has absolutely no satellite data in it, which of course means the length of record of the satellite derived sets is incredibly short, w/ most datasets only containing enough data for at the very most 1 30-yr base period (1981-2010), if at all. The satellite data will likely become more important in the coming decades to the ONI calculations. as new 30 year base periods (1986-2015, 1991-2020, 1996-2025, 2001-2030) become available in 2016, 2021, 2026, & 2031 respectively, and I plan on making the tri-monthly data from some of the satellite derived sets available in my combined ONI reconstruction. I've finished the calculations for the first 3 datasets, and even at first glance, HADCRUT4 is exceptionally noisy before the mid-late portions of the 20th century. The combination of SSTs & Near Surface Air temps accounts for 2 of the 6 variables used in the MEI, and are the 2 strongest components of the MEI, showing correlations 0.96 & 0.95 to the index itself according to Wolter & Timlin. (1998) Eventually, I may try my hand at integrating SLP into this index, but cloudiness, meridional, & zonal winds will likely remain left out since they weren't reliably accounted for (especially the former) until the satellite era.

 

SSTs-Near-Surface-Temps-Reanalysis-Datas

 

ERSSTv4 uses 130 EOT derived from in situ & satellite based SSTs in OISSTv2 as opposed to CODAS that was implemented in v3b, most notably, this correction allows for a realistic depiction of the 1877-78 Super El Nino, which was intentionally dampened in ERSSTv3b (along w/ all the pre 1880 data, hence, even though it's length of record is equivalent to v4, I've excluded it from this ONI analysis until 1895 when a 30 year base period w/ "reliable" data finally becomes accessible.

 

ERSSTv3b-DJF-NINO-3.4-SSTs-Climate-Reana

 

ERSST made the following improvements to v3b to produce the newer v4 dataset.

 

SST data now is infused with a more comprehensive ICOADS v2.5 dataset (1875-2007), which has more ship observations, across all timescales, especially during the 1880s & has been infused with more buoy data from 1970-1995 (w/ >50% more buoy data during the 1980s) 

NCEP GTS (Global Telecommunication Systems) is used in SSTs for the post 2007 period

Ice data is derived from HADISST (1870-2010) & NCEP instead of UKMO (1870-1980) & GFSC (1981-2004)

The 130 EOTs continue to be derived from OISSTv2, however v4 now uses OISSTv2 thru 2011 instead of 2005. & the EOT criterion have been lowered to 0.1 from 0.2. This allows for ERSSTv4 to present a more realistic depiction of 19th century ENSO events, which in this case, allows for the 1877-78 & 1888-89 Super El Ninos to be the 2 strongest El Ninos in the historical record, 1997-98 has been knocked down to 3rd place overall in ERSSTv4.

SST STD for Quality Control in ERSSTv4 is now based on the in situ & satellite data from OISSTv2 during the 1982-2011 period instead of COADS (1950-1979).

The SST Anomaly calculations now actually use the actual in situ locations of observations as opposed to grid boxes

Nearby anomaly filling is used to fill in the low frequency gaps in observations.

Nighttime Marine Air Temp (NMAT) adjustment now uses HadNMAT2 vs IOCADS v2.4. HadNMAT2 includes more strict QC & accounts for the bias in generally increasing ship height over the observational record (that's related to increasing ship size) that may have lead to a cool bias in on-deck air temp observations.

A Lowess filter coefficient is used for bias adjustment smoothing vs linear interpolation. 

Ship-Buoy SST adjustment was finally applied in ERSSTv4, which added 0.12C to buoy observations.

 

 

The weighting function in ERSST has also been changed in v4 to allow grid boxes w/ greater observational coverage &/or lower potential random errors to take precedent over others, in ERSSTv3b all grid boxes were given equal weight into the final SST product regardless of their obs. coverage/errors.


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#161
Phil

Posted 05 June 2015 - 07:31 AM

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I can't imagine how long it took you to write this post. Talk about covering every base..I appreciate the effort.

My hang-up is with the ship intake valve data, which appears to be heavily relied upon relative to the buoy network. How do you homogenize a 70+ year running network, subject to a slew of contaminations, that was not designed for aggregation? I much prefer the depiction HADSST3 gives me.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#162
Chris

Posted 05 June 2015 - 12:31 PM

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For future reference, reposted from PNW thread

 

Definitely agree with the idea of a moderate Niño, and also suspect it will strengthen a bit further as we complete the present oceanic KW cycle. However, I suspect it'll hit a glass ceiling between August and October due to low-frequency IO forcing and the slow nature of the transitory QBO pulse.

There's a catch to all this, though, and it's the inverse of 2014. We saw last year what a dominating -QBO/+EF/+Solar regimen could do to a developing Niño circulation, regardless of the incredible inertial/oceanic priming in the form of the strongest/most persistent WWB/KW activity since 1998.

Now, the upper atmospheric forcings are swinging back in the opposite direction. The outgoing QBO was/is by far the highest amplitude event ever recorded, at over three standard deviations above what would be considered normal shear stress in the tropopausal range. This has the consequence of delaying the transitory eddy reversal in the SAO domain (slows down the subsequent transition of the QBO in the lower levels, which is what really matters). So, the question is, how quickly does the +QBO/westerly shear stress reach the tropical tropopause, and how strong is this subsequent QBO?

If it's high amplitude +QBO that downwells quickly (unlikely), then we're probably in for a super-Niño with a NDJ peak. If it's a strong +QBO that takes time to downwell (possible), then we're probably in for a low-end strong Niño with a JFM peak. If it's a weak/moderate +QBO that takes time to downwell (statistically, this is the most likely outcome), then we probably end up with a typical/solid moderate Niño with a flatter peak lasting from Sep/Oct until Jan/Feb.

It should be noted, however, that the transitory shear stress/divergence within the QBO domain has remained at a record high amplitude, up until now at least, which I did not expect. If this continues, then scenario #2 might also be in the cards, in my opinion.

 

 

MEI is already up to +1.57, highest since 1998.



#163
richard mann

Posted 05 June 2015 - 01:45 PM

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(.. cross-reference. In response to that referred to posted just above.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/877-june-2015-in-the-pacific-northwest/?p=78571
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#164
richard mann

Posted 11 June 2015 - 01:54 AM

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-
Interesting. An apparent suggestion leastwise, of a general correlation where looking at the idea of remnants of a more Pacific based hurricane, back in 1997, having reached into Northern CA, similar to those connected to "Blanca" over the past few days. …

150610_wx_story_sto_wx-stat.png

".. The rainfall over Northern California today was aided by the remnants of Hurricane Blanca. The last time the region had significant moisture from a Hurricane was Ignacio in 1997. Ignacio left twice the amount of moisture than Blanca due to its storm track. Heat returns tomorrow. (visible satellite photo from 1997)."
 
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/1997/anomnight.8.19.1997.gif
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.6.8.2015.gif


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#165
Chris

Posted 11 June 2015 - 06:40 AM

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We're now entering the crucial window that will determine the momentum of the tropical circulation as we head deeper into 2014.

Right now, a massive kelvin wave (possibly the strongest wave in history) is propagating across the tropical pacific as the climate system begins a significant transition away from the 1998-2012 regime. This wave similar to the persistent wind forcing/wave event that jump started the 1997-98 super Niño. However, I'm not sold that we're in for a strong Niño at this time.

As I've been saying for a year now, I believe winter 2014-15 will feature a weak to moderate El Niño, probably either peaking early and/or featuring two peaks. I base this prediction on stratospheric, solar, and internal parameters..with the Sun/QBO coupling ultimately determining whether or not the upcoming ENSO warming during March/April/May will sustain or recoil into a chaotic mess.

This should be an interesting evolution, as the global circulatory network is now moving away from the dominating 1998-2012 regime.

 

Overall a pretty nice prediction, and definitely better than the Super Nino hype that was going around.


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#166
richard mann

Posted 11 June 2015 - 10:37 AM

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I'm not seeing the context here. Unless you're commenting more merely where regarding the basic elements looked at more in general.

 

The "prediction" had been for last winter. This said, as for myself, I hadn't appreciated what had been "going around" regarding the potential for a Super Nino .. last year, as "hype". But only more the potential for one perhaps.


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#167
richard mann

Posted 11 June 2015 - 11:57 AM

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The greater Pacific East. (equatorial, north.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/877-june-2015-in-the-pacific-northwest/?p=78813

.. Within past posts - of my own, connected to the potential advent of a next "Stronger" Nino, or either more general ENSO period (As with the round back in 1997 thru 1999, of a stronger both El Nino, together with La Ninawarmer Western equatorial waters.), I've worked to bring up what I've noted as a more cyclical tendency where looking at the level and strength of main "cold" consolidation through the main higher latitudes, set against its degree of distribution more through those progressively lower.

And with this idea, pointed to a near to 20-year cycle appreciable and in line with a more "Multi-decal" view possible where looking at ENSO. ... The occurrence of a "Nino" every 2-7 years looked at more generally. Near to ten where adding this two numbers more general together. "Muti-decade". And with just looking at this interval more specifically.

And with this if more general thinking, estimated the likelihood of a next stronger, even majorand if again here, either whether or both, "Nino" or more general "ENSO" centered where looking at moreduring the period from 2014 to 2017. .. Look back further than 1997 thru 1999 where considering this 20-year interval, more, and you'll find the most significant "recent past" drought impacting the West. That in California in 1977. 

 

.. With the advent of the stronger, and more specific focusing of and where looking at the consolidation of main cold reserves last winter through Northeastern Canada, .. and with its delivery more directly south, .. I'm both seeing and have been, an even greater potential .. for a lack of better distribution of main cold southward from more upstream, through broader Northern Pacific (hemispheric.).


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#168
richard mann

Posted 20 June 2015 - 02:27 PM

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CFS shows the Nino peaking in the fall and heading downhill fast after that. The latest members show a massive peak and equally steep fall. 
 
nino34Sea.gif

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#169
richard mann

Posted 20 June 2015 - 09:19 PM

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-
Cliff Mass's views current more general where looking at a possible Strong El Nino.

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/06/a-strong-el-nino-develops-what-does.html


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#170
Webberweather53

Posted 24 June 2015 - 10:58 AM

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While I'm at it, I actually just happened to (finally!) stumble upon the GCOS Working Group SST & SLP Plotting Page. There are a bunch of goodies in here, including plots to HADISST1, COBE SSTv2 and version 1 (which BTW have been exceedingly difficult for me to find), ERSSTv3b, & IOCADSv2.5, with the capability to make monthly/seasonal anomaly composites against certain base periods, etc. that are available over their entire record. 

 

http://www.esrl.noaa...sp/printpage.pl

 

DJF 1997-98 Global SST Anomalies

 

ERSSTv3b

 

ERSSTv3b-Eq-Pacific-SSTs-JFMA-20151.png

 

 

HADISST1

JFMA-2015-Eq-Pacific-SST-Anomalies.png

 

 

COBE SST

COBE-SST-JFMA-2015-Eq-Pacific-SSTs.png


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#171
richard mann

Posted 30 June 2015 - 11:20 AM

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My own narrower view. 

 

.. This past year's more abundant flows of cold, both air and ocean-current flow focused, more from the north southward more toward the equatorial Pacific East, have by degrees worked to stifle the potential for a more Nino leaning type of development. 

 

As one had begun to show some sign of perhaps developing, more so. 

 

.. From here more forward, into this next round of similar potential, it won't. This with as I've suggested might be the case for quite a while now, main cold supplies working to consolidate better through higher latitudes north where looked at more annually, and with at the same time both inversely and proportionally, heat .. along together with main moisture, being allowed to build more substantially through more tropical regions, i.e. nearer to the equator. 


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#172
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 09 July 2015 - 06:26 PM

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nino34Mon.gif


Snowfall

2017-18: 0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#173
Front Ranger

Posted 09 July 2015 - 06:52 PM

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nino34Mon.gif

 

Phil says no go. Moderate at worst. I don't know what to think.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#174
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 09 July 2015 - 07:41 PM

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Phil says no go. Moderate at worst. I don't know what to think.

 

I think it peaks in the +2.0-2.5 range.


Snowfall

2017-18: 0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#175
Phil

Posted 09 July 2015 - 09:41 PM

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Phil says no go. Moderate at worst. I don't know what to think.


CFS is way overblown. I'm still sticking with high end moderate, but I admit I'm getting a bit nervous seeing the constructive high frequency interference from the MJO forcing yet another WWB. The thermocline was beginning to rebound until the latest event..we'll see how the next 8 weeks play out.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#176
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 09 July 2015 - 09:48 PM

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CFS is way overblown. I'm still sticking with high end moderate, but I admit I'm getting a bit nervous seeing the constructive high frequency interference from the MJO forcing yet another WWB. The thermocline was beginning to rebound until the latest event..we'll see how the next 8 weeks play out.

 

Either way its going to crash bigtime on the backside. That is what I am looking forward to.


Snowfall

2017-18: 0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#177
Phil

Posted 09 July 2015 - 09:57 PM

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Either way its going to crash bigtime on the backside. That is what I am looking forward to.


Yeah, -QBO/Niña in store for next year. Not as optimal as +QBO/Niña (+EF/stronger NPAC high in +QBO years like 2008-09, 2010-11, etc) but can still work when timed properly.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#178
richard mann

Posted 10 July 2015 - 10:00 PM

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Phil says no go. Moderate at worst. I don't know what to think.

 

I'm going with general propensity. 


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#179
Webberweather53

Posted 15 July 2015 - 04:40 AM

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I really don't see how we come out of this without at least reaching the strong threshold. Even a complete collapse of this El Nino from here on out as observed in 1987-88 would still result in a close call to a seeing strong El Nino at the least. We just observed the highest MEI value since 1997-98 & the 2nd highest in a developing El Nino since 1950, the tri-monthly averaged Bivariate ENSO Timeseries (BEST) (which combines HADISST NINO 3.4 SSTs & Jones CRU SOI) was ranked 13th in May after you use a 30-yr sliding base period to account for the long-term warming of the tropical Pacific since the mid-late 19th century, and the AMJ tri-monthly ONI from ERSSTv4 was tied for 4th highest on record for a developing El Nino, only behind 1941-42, 1902-03, & 1987-88...

 

comp.png

 

 

ERSSTv4 AMJ ONI Rankings (1870-present) 

#1 +1.14 1941-42

#2 +0.93 1987-88

#3 +0.90 1902-03

#4 +0.84 1888-89

#4 +0.84 2015-16

 

BEST Index AMJ Rankings (1870-present) adjusted w/ a 30-yr sliding base period (Top 20)

#1   1877 +2.182

#2   1987 +1.814

#3   1905 +1.630

#4   1941 +1.552

#5   1997 +1.461

#6   1888 +1.382

#7   1926 +1.305

#8   1878 +1.222

#9   1940 +1.162

#10 1992 +1.159

#11 1896 +1.141

#12 1993 +1.129

#13 2015 +1.103

#14 1914 +1.094

#15 1972 +1.084

#16 1919 +1.051

#17 1953 +1.036

#18 1982 +0.925

#19 1983 +0.855

#20 1977 +0.780

 

BEST Timeseries with a 30-yr sliding base period adjustment

Tri-Monthly-Mean-Bivariate-ENSO-Index-Ti

 

The most likely solution at this point appears to be a strong El Nino, similar amplitude in to 1888-89, 1896-97, 1902-03, 1940-41, 1957-58, 1965-66, & 1972-73 with a tri-monthyl ONI peak between +1.6-2.1C, but not quite as strong as the 1877-78, 1982-83, & 1997-98 "Super" El Ninos. We shall see...

 

 

Reynolds OISSTv2 & ERSSTv4 Oceanic Nino Index (2000-present) using the new & incomplete 1986-2015 base period that becomes fully operational early next year. Months without a complete 30-yr base period use 1986-2014 until it becomes available. Compared to ERSSTv4, OISSTv2 has a ~25% higher variance, owing to its higher resolution & direct integration of satellite data. This El Nino is already at the moderate threshold, and even no intensification from this point forward (unlikely) will automatically result in a upper-end moderate El Nino. The MJJ numbers from both ERSSTv4 & OISSTv2 should easily surpass +1.0C, with OISSTv2 currently on track to hit +1.3C...

 

ERSSTv4

ERSSTv4-ONI-2000-2015-Experimental-1024x

 

 

OISSTv2

OISSTv2-ONI-2000-2015-Experimental1-1024

 

 

In the meantime, I should also have the ONI calculated & running in real-time soon from the Kaplan Extended SSTv2, HADISST1, ERSSTv3b, NCEP Reanalysis, & IOCADSv2.5 datasets...


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#180
Webberweather53

Posted 18 July 2015 - 08:16 PM

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I probably should have posted this a while ago, but here's the ONI data broken up into as many 30 yr intervals as possible, from NOAA's new CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c dataset, which is available thru 2011.

1870-1899-ONI-NOAA-CIRES-20th-Century-Re

 

1900-1929-ONI-Data-NOAA-CIRES-20th-Centu

 

1930-1959-ONI-NOAA-CIRES-20th-Century-Re

 

1960-1989-ONI-NOAA-CIRES-20th-Century-Re

 

1990-2011-ONI-NOAA-CIRES-20th-Century-Re


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#181
Chris

Posted 22 July 2015 - 10:09 AM

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Sea surface anomalies now and from July 1997

 

anomnight_7_20_2015.gif

 

 

anomnight_7_22_1997.gif



#182
Chris

Posted 31 July 2015 - 09:28 AM

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Can't remember the last time I saw this much orange in the Pacific. 

 

 

anomnight_7_30_2015.gif



#183
Chris

Posted 31 July 2015 - 09:30 AM

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Westerlies look to diminish some but not totally.

 

u_anom_30_5_S_5_N.png



#184
Chris

Posted 03 August 2015 - 12:37 PM

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http://climatecenter...lity#animations

 

Saw this on another forum --ENSO impact animated over time.


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#185
Chriskey2015

Posted 13 August 2015 - 07:06 AM

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It's cool. I learn a lot from this topic.



#186
Webberweather53

Posted 06 September 2015 - 05:22 AM

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Here's the latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) data from ERSSTv4, ERSSTv3b, HADISSTv1.1 (the updates to this dataset lag by 1 month), & Reynolds OISSTv2. I should eventually have several more datasets available in real-time (IOCADSv2.5, COBE SST, HADSST3.1.1, NCEP Reanalysis R1, & CDAS1 (used for daily NINO 3.4 SSTs @ tropicaltidbits.com)) and Kaplan Extended SSTv2 should update in relatively short order. Even from this relatively small conglomeration of datasets, it's evident that ERSSTv4 is a low outlier. The lack of direct satellite input (as is the case w/ OISSTv2, HADISST, & Kaplan) really lowers the value of ERSST for real-time ENSO monitoring, however, it's tolerable for assessing ENSO behavior on multi-decadal - centennial timescales.

 

ERSSTv4 ONI (1990-Present). The ONI for JJA was the 6th highest on record in this dataset, behind (in ascending order) 1905, 1902, 1877, 1997, & 1987.

ERSSTv4-ONI-1990-JJA-2015-891x1024.png

 

 

ERSSTv3b ONI (1990-Present). The JJA ONI value was 5th highest on record for this dataset (which is available thru 1895, since the SST data before 1880 was dampened), surpassed by 1905, 1997, 1987, & 1902.

ERSSTv3b-Tri-Monthly-ONI-1990-JJA-2015-8

 

 

HADISSTv1.1 ONI (1990-Present). The MJJ value was officially the highest on record in this dataset, which spans back to 1885 (since the first 15 years of available data are excluded in order to calculate the first available 30-year sliding base period)

 

HADISST-ONI-1990-MJJ-2015-902x1024.png

 

 

Reynolds OISSTv2 ONI (2000-present)

OISSTv2-2000-JJA-2015-ONI-1024x729.png

 

 

 

 

Additionally, for the 2nd month in a row, the latest Bi-Monthly MEI index value the 2nd highest on record, only surpassed by the 1997-98 Super El Nino, and the current value of +2.367 sigma also means this is the 3rd highest peak in the MEI index for an El Nino event since 1950, only beaten out by the 1997-98 & 1982-83 "Super" El Ninos. The Tahiti-Darwin Southern Oscillation Index (BOM),tied for the 5th lowest value on record (since 1876) with 1997, and the tri-monthly averaged Equatorial SOI (CPC) was tied for the lowest on record, also with 1997. The Bivariate ENSO Timeseries (BEST) should update relatively soon. It's hard to believe this El Nino still has a legitimate chance to challenge the 1997-98, 1982-83, & 1877-78 El Ninos, but I think the median scenario still argues for an upper end strong event at the moment, again reminiscent of 1972-73 & 1888-89...

 

comp.png


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#187
Webberweather53

Posted 08 September 2015 - 10:10 AM

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The tri-monthly Bivariate ENSO Timeseries (BEST) Index (HADISST NINO 3.4 SSTs+Jones SOI) (adjusted with a 30-year sliding base period) tied 1997 for the 2nd highest value in JJA since 1870, only beaten by 1877. For the second month in a row, the unadjusted monthly value was once again at record levels, surpassing 1997.

 

JJA-Tri-Monthly-BEST-Index-Adjusted-1870

 

Kaplan's Extended SST v2 Oceanic NINO Index (1990-present). The latest JJA ONI value (+1.61C) was the 2nd highest since 1870 , again only surpassed by the Super El Nino of 1877-78, placing it nearly into uncharted territory around the 99th percentile. This value is extremely close to what I reported several days ago via Reynolds OISSTv2 (which is intuitive given Kaplan directly utilizes OISSTv2 after 1981, using the dataset to the same resolution as its pre satellite era reconstruction) & is .39C & .30C higher than what ERSSTv4 & ERSSTv3b showed respectively for the same interval. As WeatherPhil alluded to a few months ago, the vast disparity amongst HADISST- Kaplan-OISSTv2, & ERSST likely emanates from their lack of direct satellite input, hence real-time figures from ERSSTv4 & ERSSTv3b may be suspect.

 

 

Kaplan-Extended-SST-Version-2-ONI-1990-P

 

 

Here are the top 20 years in Kaplan SSTv2 for JJA. The strength of the current El Nino at this time of the year is almost unprecedented for the last 150 years, only challenged by a few monster events, mainly 1877-78 & 1997-98. (although 1982-83 will eventually come on the scene later in the year)

 

Kaplan-Extended-SSTv2-JJA-ONI-Rankings-1


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#188
Phil

Posted 08 September 2015 - 10:27 AM

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Yeah I stopped using the ERSST suites years ago after spotting numerous internal inconsistencies and inhomogeneities.

Personally if I were them, I'd scrap the ship intake valve data and focus on homogenizing the buoy data w/ satellite data to avoid having to excessively sub-sample & homogenize the often contaminated ship data.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#189
Webberweather53

Posted 08 September 2015 - 12:14 PM

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Yeah I stopped using the ERSST suites years ago after spotting numerous internal inconsistencies and inhomogeneities.

Personally if I were them, I'd scrap the ship intake valve data and focus on homogenizing the buoy data w/ satellite data to avoid having to excessively sub-sample & homogenize the often contaminated ship data.

 

Yeah, the more I delve into this, the more I realize how terrible ERSST is for real-time ENSO monitoring, but in the long-term it's not terrible at picking out the general trends & amplitude of events. As noted by Yasunka & Hanawa (2014) ERSSTv4 is the last major interpolated SST dataset to finally pick up on the 1877-78 El Nino. Even though there is an inherent residual cold bias from cloud contamination when satellite data was integrated into ERSSTv3, I would certainly like at least see missing data being infilled by satellites in a future version of this dataset.

 

HADISST-ERSSTv2-LDEO-CODAS-HADSST-TOHOKU

 

I personally think HADISST is the gold standard for the post 1870 era, & I have a new found respect for Kaplan's Extended SSTv2 considering that the 2 step reduced space optimum interpolation procedure in HADISST was pioneered in large part by Kaplan in the 1990s, and Kaplan also was a co-author & major contributor to the creation of HADISST. OISSTv2 is clearly superior in the satellite era, but the emergence of several high resolution products, primarily from GHRSST MUR & OSTIA certainly will give it a run for its money over the coming decades. HADISSTv2 (1850-?) is expected to be released within the year or two (although preliminary data is available upon request now) & it'll be interesting to see how it stacks up.. It should add a considerable amount of confidence & value in assessing mid-late 19th century ENSO events, which are still largely assessed only by NOAA's 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2C, ERSSTv4, Kaplan SST, & COBE SST2


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#190
Phil

Posted 08 September 2015 - 12:48 PM

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Thanks, I appreciate your input. You know a lot more about the inner workings of these SST datasets than I do.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#191
Chris

Posted 15 September 2015 - 10:26 AM

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Yeah, -QBO/Niña in store for next year. Not as optimal as +QBO/Niña (+EF/stronger NPAC high in +QBO years like 2008-09, 2010-11, etc) but can still work when timed properly.

 

What years do you like as analogs, from a QBO/ENSO standpoint for this winter?



#192
Chris

Posted 15 September 2015 - 02:29 PM

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Nelsen posted on El Nino and Cascade snowpack.

 

http://www.kptv.com/...12-weather-blog



#193
Phil

Posted 15 September 2015 - 03:00 PM

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What years do you like as analogs, from a QBO/ENSO standpoint for this winter?


There aren't many good ones. Though all of these analogs have major flaws, the best overall matches are 1957-58, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1987-88, 1997-98, 2002-03, and 2006-07. I'm personally leaning towards a hybrid of 1982-83 and 2006-07.

Pros/Cons of each analog

1957-58:
-Pros: Great QBO/ENSO match.
-Cons: Very different Walker/Hadley ratio (ENSO basis), poor solar match, old.

1972-73:
-Pros: Decent solar match, good ENSO match.
-Cons: QBO timing a bit off, global -AAM bias.

1982-83:
-Pros: Good ENSO/QBO match
-Cons: Bad solar match + volcanism biases NAM too positive.

1987-88:
-Pros: Great QBO match, okay ENSO/solar match
-Cons: ENSO peaked early, solar cycle ramping up. Weak BDC.

1997-98:
-Pros: Okay ENSO/QBO match.
-Cons: QBO timing off, Walker/Hadley ratio different, solar too high

2002-03:
-Pros: Good Solar Match, recent.
-Cons: Weaker ENSO, QBO timing off

2006-07:
-Pros: Good solar/QBO match
-Cons: Much weaker ENSO
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#194
Chris

Posted 17 September 2015 - 01:39 PM

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Using those years as analogs gives this for the rest of 2015.

 

 

cd66_192_178_106_259_15_27_48_prcp.pngcd66_192_178_106_259_15_28_55_prcp.png



#195
Phil

Posted 17 September 2015 - 02:46 PM

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I'm not including 1957-58 or 2002-03 in my aggregation, for various reasons.

I'd also weight 1982-83, 1987-88, and 1997-98 a bit higher.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#196
Chris

Posted 18 September 2015 - 01:19 PM

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And another Portland-centric Nino post

 

http://www.kptv.com/...12-weather-blog



#197
Webberweather53

Posted 04 October 2015 - 11:50 AM

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The first few datasets available for ONI calculations have started to trickle in for JAS, and the numbers are impressive, even in ERSSTv4 & ERSSTv3b, which have been low outliers, horrendously underestimated the intensity of this NINO thus far ,& are closer to the un-interpolated/unadjusted IOCADSv2.5 dataset, which isn't surprising given their (piss-poor) methodologies for handling satellite data input. NCEP R1 is likely a bit closer to reality & what will likely be reported in short order by OISSTv2, Kaplan Extended SSTv2, & COBE SST (as well as HADISST next month) with values approaching +1.9C. Thus, based on NCEP R1 & how well it has correlated to these aforementioned datasets, it appears likely that we'll reach +2.0C in ASO. This threshold has been surpassed only twice this early in the evolution of an El Nino event since the mid 19th century, of course during the 2 strongest events in the entire observational record... (1877-78 & 1997-98). The BOM SOI index was 5th lowest on record in September, only beaten out by 1982, 1940, 1902, & 1896, all of which were embedded within strong El Ninos. The MEI should be updated by tomorrow (Oct 5). http://www.bom.gov.a...t/soihtm1.shtml

 

ERSSTv4 ONI (1990-Present). The latest value (+1.46) was the 6th highest on record in JAS in this dataset, superseded by 1987, 1905, 1902, 1997, & 1877. Again in reality, this estimate is likely far too conservative & using the entire record, this El Nino should be ranked comfortably in 2nd behind 1877. Kaplan's Extended SST v2 (LDEO) data will confirm this in several days...

ERSSTv4-ONI-1990-JAS-2015-893x1024.png

 

ERSSTv3b ONI (1990-Present)

ERSSTv3b-ONI-1990-JAS-2015-888x1024.png

 

 

NCEP R1 ONI (1990-Present)

NCEP-R1-ONI-1990-JAS-2015-890x1024.png


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#198
Webberweather53

Posted 05 October 2015 - 03:50 AM

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This is hot off the presses from Reynolds OISSTv2. These ONI values are absolutely insane, won't take much for this event to be classified as a "Super" El Nino (3 successive tri-monthlies @ or above +2C). The numbers from COBE SST, Kaplan, & HADISST are liable to be fairly similar...

Reynolds-OISSTv2-ONI-2000-JAS-2015-1024x

 

 

Here's IOCADSv2.5, which not surprisingly remains the low outlier.

IOCADSv2.5-ONI-1990-JAS-2015-895x1024.pn


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#199
Phil

Posted 05 October 2015 - 10:53 AM

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This Niño is really impressing me.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#200
Black Hole

Posted 05 October 2015 - 12:00 PM

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Todays values for the anomalies are +2.8C in nino 1+2 and 3, 2.4C in nino 3.4, and just above 1 in nino 4. 

 

It is quite impressive and all these values for nino 3.4,3, and 1+2 are all tied for or are the highest they have been for the event. The negative subsurface anomalies below 1+2 are gone and a renewed westerly wind burst is occurring. All signs point towards additionally warming or maintaining the current configuration in place.

 

Also, this nino is very east based and looks to remain that way for now. This is useful for this winter in that I would weight years like 97,82,72 higher for being similarly east based, and years like 04,02 less for being central based.

 

I think next month we could see the tri monthly value near +2.0.  


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F






Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: ENSO, Sun, QBO, KW, MJO, etc