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ENSO thread

ENSO Sun QBO KW MJO etc

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#201
Webberweather53

Posted 05 October 2015 - 12:38 PM

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Todays values for the anomalies are +2.8C in nino 1+2 and 3, 2.4C in nino 3.4, and just above 1 in nino 4. 

 

It is quite impressive and all these values for nino 3.4,3, and 1+2 are all tied for or are the highest they have been for the event. The negative subsurface anomalies below 1+2 are gone and a renewed westerly wind burst is occurring. All signs point towards additionally warming or maintaining the current configuration in place.

 

Also, this nino is very east based and looks to remain that way for now. This is useful for this winter in that I would weight years like 97,82,72 higher for being similarly east based, and years like 04,02 less for being central based.

 

I think next month we could see the tri monthly value near +2.0.  

 

Yeah, based on a preliminary estimate of Reynolds OISSTv2, even if we assume no intensification of this El Nino thru the end of October (which is fairly unlikely at this juncture) the ONI in OISSTv2, Kaplan, HADISST, & COBE (I threw these datasets into a conglomerate because their last several ONI values have been within ~.05-.1C of one another & they seem to be handling the smaller-scale features of the TP SST field quite well) will reach ~+2.25C in ASO. If this indeed comes to fruition, it would stand as a new record in the observational era, even ousting 1877-78. Yikes...


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#202
Black Hole

Posted 05 October 2015 - 01:21 PM

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Yeah, based on a preliminary estimate of Reynolds OISSTv2, even if we assume no intensification of this El Nino thru the end of October (which is fairly unlikely at this juncture) the ONI in OISSTv2, Kaplan, HADISST, & COBE (I threw these datasets into a conglomerate because their last several ONI values have been within ~.05-.1C of one another & they seem to be handling the smaller-scale features of the TP SST field quite well) will reach ~+2.25C in ASO. If this indeed comes to fruition, it would stand as a new record in the observational era, even ousting 1877-78. Yikes...

Yeah I think that sounds about right to me. What do you think the peaks will be for weekly or trimonthly? I wouldn't be surprised to see the weeklies top out a bit higher, maybe +2.6 or +2.7 in 3.4 and about +3 in 1+2 for the weeklies.

 

Seems like the tri monthlies might hit +2.2C or so in 3.4.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#203
Webberweather53

Posted 05 October 2015 - 02:29 PM

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Yeah I think that sounds about right to me. What do you think the peaks will be for weekly or trimonthly? I wouldn't be surprised to see the weeklies top out a bit higher, maybe +2.6 or +2.7 in 3.4 and about +3 in 1+2 for the weeklies.

 

Seems like the tri monthlies might hit +2.2C or so in 3.4.

 

 

Several weeks ago I thought we'd stay at or below +2C analogous to 1888-89 & 1972-73, but this event appears to be taking things to another, unusual level that we've seen only a few times in the last 165 years. Over the last few months, slow-moving westward propagating Rossby Wave was beginning to shift the epicenter of + SST anomalies into the NINO 3-4 region, however it appears that this has halted @ least temporarily we've seen a renewed uptick in the far eastern Pacific as yet another KW begins to reach the eastern boundary region. I'd estimate we'll see a peak around +2.3-2.4C or so in OISSTv2, HADISST, Kaplan, & COBE barring that this NINO continues to intensify even at a modest pace thru October. The MEI just updated & the latest bi-monthly value of +2.527 sigma is tied for 12th highest value observed at any time of the year (98.5 percentile) and is once again ranked 2nd highest for the bi-monthly period behind 1997, which peaked in Aug-Sep 1997 in this index. Maintenance &/or continued intensification of this NINO wrt to the MEI of would result in a new record value for September-October. The MEI index defines a "Super" NINO as an event with an MEI value @ or above +3.0 std, however I think this is just a tad high based on the ONI thresholds (+2.0C) (1870-present) for Kaplan Extended SSTv2 & ERSSTv4 which are +2.79 & +2.59 standard deviations respectively. It is certainly becoming increasingly likely that we'll attain the ONI threshold...

 

comp.png



#204
Phil

Posted 05 October 2015 - 05:09 PM

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To me, the record breaking Niño4 anomaly is probably the most impressive, considering the basinwide nature of this event. The fact that low-middle stagnant freq forcing has been so dateline-oriented is also somewhat unique for a Niño of this amplitude.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#205
Webberweather53

Posted 05 October 2015 - 08:46 PM

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To me, the record breaking Niño4 anomaly is probably the most impressive, considering the basinwide nature of this event. The fact that low-middle stagnant freq forcing has been so dateline-oriented is also somewhat unique for a Niño of this amplitude.

 

Yeah, I've certainly noticed, there have also been substantial low frequency changes in the EP zonal SST gradient that are contributing... The overall forcing & SST distribution in this NINO is certainly more analogous to 1877-78 & 1982-83 than 1997-98. The plethora of TC activity in the east-central deep tropical Atlantic (spurred in large part by a sudden & rather unusual +AMM) spike as well as a year of "preconditioning" wrt to ENSO (i.e. warm neutral-weak NINO up to a year preceding the development of an extraordinary NINO) gives this event some interesting similarities to the 19th century "Super" El Ninos (1877-78 & 1888-89) as opposed to 1982-83 & 1997-98, IMO. The 19th century Super NINOs also provide a stronger analog for solar background (esp. @ inter-multidecadal timescales)...


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#206
Phil

Posted 05 October 2015 - 09:07 PM

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Yeah, I've certainly noticed, there have also been substantial low frequency changes in the EP zonal SST gradient that are contributing... The overall forcing & SST distribution in this NINO is certainly more analogous to 1877-78 & 1982-83 than 1997-98. The plethora of TC activity in the east-central deep tropical Atlantic (spurred in large part by a sudden & rather unusual +AMM) spike as well as a year of "preconditioning" wrt to ENSO (i.e. warm neutral-weak NINO up to a year preceding the development of an extraordinary NINO) gives this event some interesting similarities to the 19th century "Super" El Ninos (1877-78 & 1888-89) as opposed to 1982-83 & 1997-98, IMO. The 19th century Super NINOs also provide a stronger analog for solar background (esp. @ inter-multidecadal timescales)...


I agree. I'd like better data on the 19th century IO domain, though, considering the strong correlation between low-freq IO forcing and wave coherence in the stratosphere. Certainly it appeared to play a role in preventing what should have been a major SSW/-NAM last January/February through destructive wave interference.

In fact, I'd argue that the IO is the most underrated player in seasonal forecasting today. It influences W/H intensity and spread ratio, hence poleward eddy flux and mass transport imbalance.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#207
Webberweather53

Posted 05 October 2015 - 10:12 PM

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I agree. I'd like better data on the 19th century IO domain, though, considering the strong correlation between low-freq IO forcing and wave coherence in the stratosphere. Certainly it appeared to play a role in preventing what should have been a major SSW/-NAM last January/February through destructive wave interference.

In fact, I'd argue that the IO is the most underrated player in seasonal forecasting today. It influences W/H intensity and spread ratio, hence poleward eddy flux and mass transport imbalance.

 

The IO/E Hem interference has not been nearly as prevalent with the current NINO (relatively speaking), which is likely related to the -AMO being able to isolate the anomalous NINO circulation in the Pacific as opposed to most post 1991-92 NINOs bleeding into the western hemisphere/Africa. I seriously doubt it's just mere coincidence that this abrupt change in NINO upper level configuration coincided with the AMO flip ~1995...

It's been a while since we've seen a classic look like this.

compday.C6aQJbka5x.gif

 

BTW, Kaplan's Extended SSTv2 dataset just updated several hours ago. As expected, (since it's just a lower resolution version of OISSTv2 after 1981), the latest ONI value is precisely in line with OISSTv2, now up to +1.90 C, and JAS was ranked 2nd overall since 1870 behind 1877-78. If the current rate of intensification that we've observed over the past few months holds thru October, we're going to set a new record in this dataset. To be frank, the more datasets I compile together, the more I find it sad how many in the field nor the public don't realize that NOAA's ERSST products are grossly underestimating the intensity of this El Nino. There's a massive difference between an ONI value under +1.5C & +1.90C, the former is no doubt impressive, but the latter is historic & practically unprecedented in the last few centuries...

 

Kaplan-Extended-SSTv2-1990-JAS-2015-889x


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#208
Phil

Posted 06 October 2015 - 07:44 AM

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The IO/E Hem interference has not been nearly as prevalent with the current NINO (relatively speaking), which is likely related to the -AMO being able to isolate the anomalous NINO circulation in the Pacific as opposed to most post 1991-92 NINOs bleeding into the western hemisphere/Africa. I seriously doubt it's just mere coincidence that this abrupt change in NINO upper level configuration coincided with the AMO flip ~1995...
It's been a while since we've seen a classic look like this.


Agreed re: the more classic forcing/walker configuration this go around. The question is, in my opinion, is there still enough interference present to cause problems w/ the older analogs, considering that the IO subsidence is still relatively weaker now than it was in the 19th century? I suspect this may explain why the Niño/stagnant connective forcing has a wider periphery vs 1997-98 and 1982-83, and why Niño4 has warmed relatively faster over the last 20yrs versus Niño3.

I've also looked at AMO/IO relationship, and I believe it to be another chicken-egg problem? My statistical conclusion is that the IO/PAC appears to lead the AMO by a year or so, at least on the resolution we're looking at. l could be wrong but I'm skeptical that the NATL tail can wag the tropical dog. Do you have any thoughts on this?

BTW, Kaplan's Extended SSTv2 dataset just updated several hours ago. As expected, (since it's just a lower resolution version of OISSTv2 after 1981), the latest ONI value is precisely in line with OISSTv2, now up to +1.90 C, and JAS was ranked 2nd overall since 1870 behind 1877-78. If the current rate of intensification that we've observed over the past few months holds thru October, we're going to set a new record in this dataset. To be frank, the more datasets I compile together, the more I find it sad how many in the field nor the public don't realize that NOAA's ERSST products are grossly underestimating the intensity of this El Nino. There's a massive difference between an ONI value under +1.5C & +1.90C, the former is no doubt impressive, but the latter is historic & practically unprecedented in the last few centuries...

Kaplan-Extended-SSTv2-1990-JAS-2015-889x


That's impressive! Where do you think this Niño tops at?

From my perspective, it's dumbfounding to see what ERSST4 has become. There are all sorts of inhomogeneities in that dataset which should be obvious/easy to correct for, both short and long term, in my opinion. It's not my place to make accusations like this, as I don't have the knowledge to do so, but I suspect political pressure is part of the equation.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#209
monisa18

Posted 10 October 2015 - 08:15 AM

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Compared to previous discussions on this thread, my question may seem irrelevant to the topic, but does anybody know about a correlation with El Ninos and tornadoes the year afterwards? 1997-1998 was the strongest on record. and then 1998 had above average tornadoes. 



#210
Black Hole

Posted 10 October 2015 - 10:24 AM

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Compared to previous discussions on this thread, my question may seem irrelevant to the topic, but does anybody know about a correlation with El Ninos and tornadoes the year afterwards? 1997-1998 was the strongest on record. and then 1998 had above average tornadoes. 

Extremely unlikely.

 

There does appear to be some correlation with current el ninos having less tornadoes and current la ninas having more. This makes more sense because of the patterns that these types of oscillations force. The atmosphere is non-linear, which in essence means that you can rarely say stuff like what you said above, it just doesn't work out that often.

 

In the case of 1998 el nino was dying and a la nina was rapidly forming so that would fall in line with what I said above.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#211
Chris

Posted 21 October 2015 - 10:11 AM

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I copied these off another forum.  I would cite the author if I knew it.

 

12107130_918967164864656_872472752045069

 

ENSO_comparisons.png



#212
ShawniganLake

Posted 24 October 2015 - 12:53 PM

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Nino 3.4 is up just above +2.5C currently, which is where the models generally see this thing peaking.  CPC says 25% chance we are into a Nina by June.

 

nino34.png

 

Attached File  figure3.gif   20.61KB   0 downloads

 



#213
snow_wizard

Posted 24 October 2015 - 02:23 PM

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Nino 3.4 is up just above +2.5C currently, which is where the models generally see this thing peaking.  CPC says 25% chance we are into a Nina by June.


I think the chances are at least that high. The anomalous high pressure over Australia which has gone hand in hand with this Nino just gave out a few days ago. The models say the pressure will continue much lower there for the foreseeable future. SOI readings over the past week have already shown a significant rise although still negative. There's a reasonable chance this Nino will collapse earlier in the season than the 1982 and 1997 events.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 4

 

 


#214
Phil

Posted 24 October 2015 - 03:43 PM

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I think the chances are at least that high. The anomalous high pressure over Australia which has gone hand in hand with this Nino just gave out a few days ago. The models say the pressure will continue much lower there for the foreseeable future. SOI readings over the past week have already shown a significant rise although still negative. There's a reasonable chance this Nino will collapse earlier in the season than the 1982 and 1997 events.


This is nothing more than an intraseasonal forcing burp, sort of like the Nov 2002/2009 excursions. No surprise to see it considering the warm(ing) in the IO domain, but the fact that this is projecting so strongly in the VP200 anoms may be signaling an overall degradation of the coupled Niño/+AAM.

Whether or not this is a true MJO is debatable, but eventually, this intraseasonal wave (whatever it is) will progress east, as depicted by the VP anomalies, back into alignment w/ ENSO inertia.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#215
Phil

Posted 24 October 2015 - 03:59 PM

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Sample size problems this year in terms of analogs...1997-98 is a poor match in terms of forcing/WC longitude, 1991-92 and 1982-83 are both contaminated by volcanism and high solar...the 1987-88 Niño imploded in November after destructive inter seasonal forcing kicked the WC into gear, 1972-73 is contaminated by an unreprestative W/H ratio/low AAM integral, and 1957-58 is ancient and contaminated w/ high solar despite being the best QBO match outside 1987-88. Can't effectively use 2006-07 or 2002-03 either.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#216
ShawniganLake

Posted 24 October 2015 - 04:52 PM

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Sample size problems this year in terms of analogs...1997-98 is a poor match in terms of forcing/WC longitude, 1991-92 and 1982-83 are both contaminated by volcanism and high solar...the 1987-88 Niño imploded in November after destructive inter seasonal forcing kicked the WC into gear, 1972-73 is contaminated by an unreprestative W/H ratio/low AAM integral, and 1957-58 is ancient and contaminated w/ high solar despite being the best QBO match outside 1987-88. Can't effectively use 2006-07 or 2002-03 either.

Are there any years that do match ? 65-66?

#217
Phil

Posted 24 October 2015 - 06:21 PM

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Are there any years that do match ? 65-66?


There are many Niño/+QBO analogs, however all are unique and have problems.

Unfortunately, 1965-66 is not a good antecedent stratospheric match, which is important considering the midwinter strat/HT response to niño forcing determines a good portion of the late winter pattern in said +ENSO years.

I posted my thoughts on the winter in the climate/LR forum, if anyone is interested: http://theweatherfor...ast/#entry87077
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#218
Webberweather53

Posted 07 November 2015 - 09:52 AM

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Agreed re: the more classic forcing/walker configuration this go around. The question is, in my opinion, is there still enough interference present to cause problems w/ the older analogs, considering that the IO subsidence is still relatively weaker now than it was in the 19th century? I suspect this may explain why the Niño/stagnant connective forcing has a wider periphery vs 1997-98 and 1982-83, and why Niño4 has warmed relatively faster over the last 20yrs versus Niño3.

I've also looked at AMO/IO relationship, and I believe it to be another chicken-egg problem? My statistical conclusion is that the IO/PAC appears to lead the AMO by a year or so, at least on the resolution we're looking at. l could be wrong but I'm skeptical that the NATL tail can wag the tropical dog. Do you have any thoughts on this?


That's impressive! Where do you think this Niño tops at?

From my perspective, it's dumbfounding to see what ERSST4 has become. There are all sorts of inhomogeneities in that dataset which should be obvious/easy to correct for, both short and long term, in my opinion. It's not my place to make accusations like this, as I don't have the knowledge to do so, but I suspect political pressure is part of the equation.

 

The ENSO wave behavior seems more reminiscent to the 1877-78 & 1888-89 Super events, with one year of +ENSO preconditioning (which doesn't seem to be a function of random noise) & intensification through the solstice, that apart from perhaps 1986-88, is practically unheard of in the modern era and I'm also impressed by the 1876-78 N Pac/TP SST progression. In general, the IO interference likely halted what would have been a one & done moderate El NINO and lead to the 19th century-esque response and it certainly has to be taken into consideration for constructing analog packages. Rao & Ren (Aug 2015) had some interesting ideas wrt IO interference w/ ENSO's modulation of the NAM. The multitdecadal cooling of the northern vortex in concert w/ warming IO, despite the increase in CP NINO frequency & +AMO is certainly interesting...  http://link.springer...0382-015-2797-5 We probably won't buck this trend this year with a westerly QBO well beyond solar max, in fact no MMWs have occurred in +QBO w/ solar flux this low, much less @ the current phase in the solar cycle. As Sam Lillo notes, the QBO-NAM-Solar relationship is strongest during low solar-E QBO winters and as we descend towards solar cycle 25, any passing NINO timed w/ -QBO in concert with the particularly low solar background, will provide an unusual opportunity to capitalize in a big way on northern blocking.... 

Photo credit to Sam Lillo

CS7JLRxWoAAhjYj.png

 

BTW, I finally finished calculating my ensemble Oceanic Nino Index thru the end of the 19th century. This index follows the methodology of the Climate Prediction Center & Kousy/Higgins (2007) & is based on the NINO 3.4 region SST data merged from 8 SST datasets (COBE SST2, ERSSTv4, NOAA CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c, Kaplan's Extended SSTv2, HADISST, NOAA's 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2, ERSSTv3b, & COBE SST). I lowered the criterion for ENSO events to +/-0.45C due to rounding errors that are prevalent in NOAA's ERSSTv4 data when ONI values are presented to the nearest tenth & for better detection of ENSO events. This index is remarkably smooth given the vast uncertainties & noise that exist within this portion of the historical record & the individual SST datasets. I was able to pick up on two more El Nino events before 1870 and I hope to have this entire 150+ year index running in real-time early next year. I also have plans to add HADISST2 to this portion of the record & eventually expand upon the NINO 3.4 data by adding adding a SLP component & an additional SST component.

 

Ensemble-Combined-ONI-1865-1900-669x1024


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#219
Phil

Posted 07 November 2015 - 08:31 PM

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The ENSO wave behavior seems more reminiscent to the 1877-78 & 1888-89 Super events, with one year of +ENSO preconditioning (which doesn't seem to be a function of random noise) & intensification through the solstice, that apart from perhaps 1986-88, is practically unheard of in the modern era and I'm also impressed by the 1876-78 N Pac/TP SST progression. In general, the IO interference likely halted what would have been a one & done moderate El NINO and lead to the 19th century-esque response and it certainly has to be taken into consideration for constructing analog packages. Rao & Ren (Aug 2015) had some interesting ideas wrt IO interference w/ ENSO's modulation of the NAM. The multitdecadal cooling of the northern vortex in concert w/ warming IO, despite the increase in CP NINO frequency & +AMO is certainly interesting... http://link.springer...0382-015-2797-5 We probably won't buck this trend this year with a westerly QBO well beyond solar max, in fact no MMWs have occurred in +QBO w/ solar flux this low, much less @ the current phase in the solar cycle. As Sam Lillo notes, the QBO-NAM-Solar relationship is strongest during low solar-E QBO winters and as we descend towards solar cycle 25, any passing NINO timed w/ -QBO in concert with the particularly low solar background, will provide an unusual opportunity to capitalize in a big way on northern blocking....


Have yet to read Rao/Ren '15 so I'm a bit behind the power curve but generally agree w/ you on the implications of warming IO/Indonesian waters. Slight alterations to mass flux/TWs can have major implications on wave propagation, structure, domain, absorption/ease, and frequency. For example, the relative absence of CWs over the last 10-15yrs can be partially blamed on the warming IO/WPAC.

Regarding the strat/solar data, I'd consider the 2006-07 event (+QBO/-Solar/Niño) to be a MWW, perhaps one of the most impressive events in terms of vertical wave structure, though timing of QBO wave isn't a perfect match. It's not like we have a solid sample size of high-amplitude +QBOs in low solar regimes, let alone in tandem w/ a raging Niño (+ENSO favors late winter impingement).

Furthermore, we've observed significant strengthening in the antecedent Brewer-Dobson Circulation/O^3 fluxes over the last 10-15 years in response to declining solar activity and reduced concentration of anthropogenic CFCs. A lot of the statistically solid tendencies of the 80s/90s are no longer set in stone, and I suspect that will continue to be the case going forward.

BTW, I finally finished calculating my ensemble Oceanic Nino Index thru the end of the 19th century. This index follows the methodology of the Climate Prediction Center & Kousy/Higgins (2007) & is based on the NINO 3.4 region SST data merged from 8 SST datasets (COBE SST2, ERSSTv4, NOAA CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c, Kaplan's Extended SSTv2, HADISST, NOAA's 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2, ERSSTv3b, & COBE SST). I lowered the criterion for ENSO events to +/-0.45C due to rounding errors that are prevalent in NOAA's ERSSTv4 data when ONI values are presented to the nearest tenth & for better detection of ENSO events. This index is remarkably smooth given the vast uncertainties & noise that exist within this portion of the historical record & the individual SST datasets. I was able to pick up on two more El Nino events before 1870 and I hope to have this entire 150+ year index running in real-time early next year. I also have plans to add HADISST2 to this portion of the record & eventually expand upon the NINO 3.4 data by adding adding a SLP component & an additional SST component.

Ensemble-Combined-ONI-1865-1900-669x1024


This is fantastic! Thank you for all the work you've put into it, and I look forward to any further analysis you can do. Should make analoging much easier when in regards to ENSO.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

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#220
Chris

Posted 10 November 2015 - 10:32 AM

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There seems to be a popular notion on here that Nov/Dec will be the best chance for the PNW to score during this Nino winter. I decided to look at the stats for the region during the biggest El Ninos most comparable to this one since 1900: 1905-6, 1925-26, 1930-31, 1941-42, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, and 1997-8. This is based off MEI/ONI.

 

Just looking at snowfall...none of these winter featured any real snowfall in November (1905 had a little in the far north near Bellingham).

 

1905-6: Nothing in December, widespread snowfall in western WA in January with a little in the Willamette Valley as well. The Portland area had a significant snow storm in March.

 

1925-26: Region wide suck fest, no lowland snow.

 

1930-31: Region wide turd-a-pa-looza.

 

1941-42: A little Willamette Valley snow in December, then a widespread snowfall from Portland to Bellingham in January.

 

1957-58: Region wide despair.

 

1965-66: Perhaps the most underrated winter among PNW weenies. Did it have severe cold? No. But it did produce a lot of snow. Big-time snows in December up and down the I-5 corridor, except Portland which got royally screwed. The fun continued in January to a lesser extent with most places seeing some more snowfall (OLM got 10.7"), and even the Portland area managed a little. February had a small, widespread event, and then March ended the winter with a bang (15.5" at OLM, 5.5" SEA, 2.5" EUG) with just about everyone seeing a little something. One of very few winters that featured widespread lowland snowfall events every month from Dec-Mar. As our Canadian friends have pointed out, this was an even bigger winter up that way.

 

1972-73: Legendary Arctic blast in December which also brought massive snowfall to the Willamette Valley, with lesser but still decent amounts north of Portland. Another widespread, modest event in January rounded out the second snowiest winter of the Mega Nino bunch.

 

1982-83: Epic failure returns.

 

1997-98: Small event for Portland in December, then widespread snowfall from Portland area to Bellingham in January, with Portland scoring the biggest totals.

 

As Phil will be quick to point out, ENSO strength is only one factor. And this is just looking at snowfall. But it does tell us that historically, big-time Ninos are most likely to deliver lowland snowfall in January, followed by December. About half of them have been completely snowless.



#221
Webberweather53

Posted 11 November 2015 - 03:52 AM

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Have yet to read Rao/Ren '15 so I'm a bit behind the power curve but generally agree w/ you on the implications of warming IO/Indonesian waters. Slight alterations to mass flux/TWs can have major implications on wave propagation, structure, domain, absorption/ease, and frequency. For example, the relative absence of CWs over the last 10-15yrs can be partially blamed on the warming IO/WPAC.

Regarding the strat/solar data, I'd consider the 2006-07 event (+QBO/-Solar/Niño) to be a MWW, perhaps one of the most impressive events in terms of vertical wave structure, though timing of QBO wave isn't a perfect match. It's not like we have a solid sample size of high-amplitude +QBOs in low solar regimes, let alone in tandem w/ a raging Niño (+ENSO favors late winter impingement).

Furthermore, we've observed significant strengthening in the antecedent Brewer-Dobson Circulation/O^3 fluxes over the last 10-15 years in response to declining solar activity and reduced concentration of anthropogenic CFCs. A lot of the statistically solid tendencies of the 80s/90s are no longer set in stone, and I suspect that will continue to be the case going forward.


This is fantastic! Thank you for all the work you've put into it, and I look forward to any further analysis you can do. Should make analoging much easier when in regards to ENSO.

 

Interestingly, according to the 20th Century Reanalysis & post 1950 operational data, we actually tend to observe a higher NAM & NAO with strong El Ninos. I think this likely has to do with the southeastward shift of the Aleutian Low for (also supported by the Aleutian Low-Icelandic Vortex "Seesaw relation"). The overall increasing + trend in response to bigger NINOs for both the AO/NAO is the same for the reanalysis & post 1950 era data, which is amazing considering the latter group of strong events was riddled by volcanic winters (1991-92 & 1982-83), the AO is negatively shifted vs NAO (shocker) /sarc. In spite of the ridiculously small sample size, the removal of these 2 events from the post 1950 era strong group would still leave an increasing trend in the NAM b/t all and Strong El Ninos. The canonical mid-winter stratospheric NINO pathway actually seems to be more evident with the addition of the early 20th & mid-late 19th century El Ninos, and even with the removal of the 2009-10 outlier when stratifying for strong events, the -AO/NAO persistence into February remains...

 

 

El Ninos (1865-2010) (n=43)

Mean NAO

DJF: -0.05

Dec: +0.25

Jan: -0.32

Feb: -0.08

 

Strong El Ninos (1865-2010) (n=13)

Mean NAO

DJF: +0.40

Dec: +0.87

Jan: -0.24

Feb: +0.56

 

El Ninos (1865-2010) (n=43)

Mean AO

DJF: -0.62

Dec: -0.02

Jan: -0.98

Feb: -0.87

 

Strong El Ninos (1865-2010) (n=13)

Mean AO

DJF: -0.29

Dec: +0.32

Jan: -0.84

Feb: -0.36

 

 

El Ninos (1950-2010) (n=21)

Mean NAO

DJF: -0.16

Dec: -0.05

Jan: -0.22

Feb: -0.20

 

Strong El Ninos (1950-2010) (n=7)

Mean NAO

DJF: +0.48

Dec: +0.72

Jan: +0.48

Feb: +0.23

 

El Ninos (1950-2010) (n=21)

Mean AO

DJF: -0.51

Dec: +0.13

Jan: -0.82

Feb: -0.84

 

Strong El Ninos (1950-2010) (n=7)

Mean AO

DJF: -0.05

Dec: +0.77

Jan: -0.44

Feb: -0.46

 

 

As far as the ongoing El Nino is concerned, here are the Kaplan's Extended SST Version 2 (LDEO) Oceanic Nino Index ASO Rankings (1870-Present). The latest ONI value ( 2.11C) officially set a new record high in this dataset, beating out both 1877-78 & 1997-98. This is also the 13th highest value that's ever been recorded for any tri-monthly period in Kaplan's Extended SSTv2, with only the 1877-78, 1982-83, & 1997-98 "Super" El Ninos registering higher in the ONI, & given that the NINO 3.4 SSTs still haven't peaked yet, we're liable to move up further in the rankings &/or break a record in the next update or two.

Top 20 ONI Values Kaplan Extended SSTv2 (1870-present)

NDJ 1997 2.43
DJF 1983 2.42
NDJ 1982 2.39
OND 1997 2.36
DJF 1998 2.35
DJF 1878 2.24
NDJ 1877 2.23
SON 1997 2.23
OND 1982 2.17
OND 1877 2.15
JFM 1983 2.15
SON 1877 2.12
ASO 2015 2.11
JFM 1878 2.10
JFM 1998 2.07
ASO 1877 2.05
ASO 1997 2.05
OND 1972 2.04
NDJ 1888 2.03
JAS 1877 1.96

Kaplans-Extended-SSTv2-ASO-ONI-Rankings-

 

 

The COBE SST, OISSTv2, & CDAS1 (daily CDAS 1 data is available @ tropicaltidbits.com) datasets were a bit more aggressive, while ERSSTv4 & v3b remain lost (as usual) w/ ASO ONI values in those datasets coming in @ +1.70C & +1.78C respectively

 

OISSTv2 ONI (2000-present)

OISSTv2-ONI-2000-ASO-2015-1024x728.png

 

COBE SST ONI (1990-present)

COBE-SST-ONI-1990-ASO-2015-928x1024.png

 

 

CDAS 1 ONI (1990-Present)

CDAS-1-ONI-1990-ASO-2015-892x1024.png

 

 

For the 2nd month in a row, the tri-monthly averaged BEST Index set a new record high. (*Note*: As a reminder, I have adjusted the original data with a 30-year sliding base period to attempt to remove the inherent warming signal in this index).

The tri-monthly BEST index not only set a monthly record, but a new all-time record high value was recorded this past ASO. In fact the last 2 tri-monthly values have registered in the top 5 overall. Wow. The utter domination by the 1877-78, 1982-83, & 1997-98 Super NINOs is evident in the top 20 tri-monthly BEST Index rankings...

Top 20 (adjusted) Tri-Monthly BEST Index Values
ASO 2015 2.616
JFM 1983 2.595
DJF 1983 2.549
NDJ 1982 2.476
JAS 2015 2.454
JFM 1998 2.397
OND 1982 2.281
DJF 1878 2.236
DJF 1998 2.216
SON 1982 2.214
AMJ 1877 2.182
FMA 1983 2.172
JFM 1878 2.157
ASO 1997 2.156
NDJ 1997 2.067
MJJ 1877 2.061
SON 1877 2.050
JAS 1997 2.044
JJA 1877 2.023
FMA 1878 2.016

 

Tri-Monthly-Adjusted-BEST-Index-1870-ASO


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#222
Phil

Posted 11 November 2015 - 05:05 AM

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Interestingly, according to the 20th Century Reanalysis & post 1950 operational data, we actually tend to observe a higher NAM & NAO with strong El Ninos. I think this likely has to do with the southeastward shift of the Aleutian Low for (also supported by the Aleutian. The overall increasing + trend in response to bigger NINOs for both the AO/NAO is the same for the reanalysis & post 1950 era data, which is amazing considering the latter group of strong events was riddled by volcanic winters (1991-92 & 1982-83), the AO is negatively shifted vs NAO (shocker) /sarc. In spite of the ridiculously small sample size, the removal of these 2 events from the post 1950 era strong group would still leave an increasing trend in the NAM b/t all and Strong El Ninos. The canonical mid-winter stratospheric NINO pathway actually seems to be more evident with the addition of the early 20th & mid-late 19th century El Ninos, and even with the removal of the 2009-10 outlier when stratifying for strong events, the -AO/NAO persistence into February remains...


El Ninos (1865-2010) (n=43)
Mean NAO
DJF: -0.05
Dec: +0.25
Jan: -0.32
Feb: -0.08

Strong El Ninos (1865-2010) (n=13)
Mean NAO
DJF: +0.40
Dec: +0.87
Jan: -0.24
Feb: +0.56

El Ninos (1865-2010) (n=43)
Mean AO
DJF: -0.62
Dec: -0.02
Jan: -0.98
Feb: -0.87

Strong El Ninos (1865-2010) (n=13)
Mean AO
DJF: -0.29
Dec: +0.32
Jan: -0.84
Feb: -0.36


El Ninos (1950-2010) (n=21)
Mean NAO
DJF: -0.16
Dec: -0.05
Jan: -0.22
Feb: -0.20

Strong El Ninos (1950-2010) (n=7)
Mean NAO
DJF: +0.48
Dec: +0.72
Jan: +0.48
Feb: +0.23

El Ninos (1950-2010) (n=21)
Mean AO
DJF: -0.51
Dec: +0.13
Jan: -0.82
Feb: -0.84

Strong El Ninos (1950-2010) (n=7)
Mean AO
DJF: -0.05
Dec: +0.77
Jan: -0.44
Feb: -0.46


As far as the ongoing El Nino is concerned, here are the Kaplan's Extended SST Version 2 (LDEO) Oceanic Nino Index ASO Rankings (1870-Present). The latest ONI value ( 2.11C) officially set a new record high in this dataset, beating out both 1877-78 & 1997-98. This is also the 13th highest value that's ever been recorded for any tri-monthly period in Kaplan's Extended SSTv2, with only the 1877-78, 1982-83, & 1997-98 "Super" El Ninos registering higher in the ONI, & given that the NINO 3.4 SSTs still haven't peaked yet, we're liable to move up further in the rankings &/or break a record in the next update or two.
Top 20 ONI Values Kaplan Extended SSTv2 (1870-present)

NDJ 1997 2.43
DJF 1983 2.42
NDJ 1982 2.39
OND 1997 2.36
DJF 1998 2.35
DJF 1878 2.24
NDJ 1877 2.23
SON 1997 2.23
OND 1982 2.17
OND 1877 2.15
JFM 1983 2.15
SON 1877 2.12
ASO 2015 2.11
JFM 1878 2.10
JFM 1998 2.07
ASO 1877 2.05
ASO 1997 2.05
OND 1972 2.04
NDJ 1888 2.03
JAS 1877 1.96
Kaplans-Extended-SSTv2-ASO-ONI-Rankings-


The COBE SST, OISSTv2, & CDAS1 (daily CDAS 1 data is available @ tropicaltidbits.com) datasets were a bit more aggressive, while ERSSTv4 & v3b remain lost (as usual) w/ ASO ONI values in those datasets coming in @ +1.70C & +1.78C respectively

OISSTv2 ONI (2000-present)
OISSTv2-ONI-2000-ASO-2015-1024x728.png

COBE SST ONI (1990-present)
COBE-SST-ONI-1990-ASO-2015-928x1024.png


CDAS 1 ONI (1990-Present)
CDAS-1-ONI-1990-ASO-2015-892x1024.png


For the 2nd month in a row, the tri-monthly averaged BEST Index set a new record high. (*Note*: As a reminder, I have adjusted the original data with a 30-year sliding base period to attempt to remove the inherent warming signal in this index).
The tri-monthly BEST index not only set a monthly record, but a new all-time record high value was recorded this past ASO. In fact the last 2 tri-monthly values have registered in the top 5 overall. Wow. The utter domination by the 1877-78, 1982-83, & 1997-98 Super NINOs is evident in the top 20 tri-monthly BEST Index rankings...

Top 20 (adjusted) Tri-Monthly BEST Index Values
ASO 2015 2.616
JFM 1983 2.595
DJF 1983 2.549
NDJ 1982 2.476
JAS 2015 2.454
JFM 1998 2.397
OND 1982 2.281
DJF 1878 2.236
DJF 1998 2.216
SON 1982 2.214
AMJ 1877 2.182
FMA 1983 2.172
JFM 1878 2.157
ASO 1997 2.156
NDJ 1997 2.067
MJJ 1877 2.061
SON 1877 2.050
JAS 1997 2.044
JJA 1877 2.023
FMA 1878 2.016

Tri-Monthly-Adjusted-BEST-Index-1870-ASO


Interesting analysis. From what I know, the observed (long term) shift in the Walker/Hadley ratio(s) favors a trend towards a +NAM during the early portion of the winter in +ENSO (poleward AAM transport during the strengthening period of the vortex favors enhanced coupling). However, I suspect this should not hold true after mid January or so?

I think once you adjust for solar and the other underlying dynamics in the stratosphere, you'll find that the trend towards a +NAM is actually centered during the early portion of the winter.

Also, man, your ability to dive into these SST reconstructions fascinates me. I wish I had the patience you do. I honestly think you're going to be one of the greatest meteorologists in the field, assuming you choose to go that route. Hopefully you stick around to educate us. ;)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
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Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
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#223
Webberweather53

Posted 11 November 2015 - 07:21 AM

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Interesting analysis. From what I know, the observed (long term) shift in the Walker/Hadley ratio(s) favors a trend towards a +NAM during the early portion of the winter in +ENSO (poleward AAM transport during the strengthening period of the vortex favors enhanced coupling). However, I suspect this should not hold true after mid January or so?

I think once you adjust for solar and the other underlying dynamics in the stratosphere, you'll find that the trend towards a +NAM is actually centered during the early portion of the winter.

Also, man, your ability to dive into these SST reconstructions fascinates me. I wish I had the patience you do. I honestly think you're going to be one of the greatest meteorologists in the field, assuming you choose to go that route. Hopefully you stick around to educate us. ;)

 

 

Yep, it's clear across all timescales that the NAM is positive generally centered around December, with a classic top down response leading to disruption in January. All I'm saying is that the state of the NAM as a whole is generally more positive during Strong-Super El Nino events, even when you exclude the obvious masking of the true signal by volcanic eruptions. I think the large El Ninos helping to induce a very extensive/strong Pacific jet thus leading to an extreme southeastward progression of the Aleutian Low has a lot to do with this by shifting the epicenter of EP flux and RW upwelling away from the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands, which was determined by Garfinkel et al to be the tropospheric precursor to SSWEs... There are also intriguing seesaw relationships between the Aleutian & Icelandic Vortices that allow for large El Ninos to be more conducive to maintaining a +NAO/AO... The most interesting take away from all of this is the weaker NAM leaking into in February in the modern era, most of the pre 1950 events featured the classical mid-winter response but backed off later on.

 

Thanks BTW for the kind words. :)


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#224
Geos

Posted 16 November 2015 - 09:36 PM

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As far as ENSO region 3.4 goes, the peak is here or very near. Should start seeing a sharp decline in the coming weeks.

 

post-14-0-81597500-1447707688.gif


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
Total moisture 2017: 41.91", 12/04

 

Season low so far: 26°, 12/04
2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 2.2", 11/24

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https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#225
Webberweather53

Posted 24 November 2015 - 04:23 AM

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Al Mariano has created a new Tropical-Northern Hemisphere (TNH) index which utilizes the CPC's methodology, however uses the spatial patterns of 500mb geopotential height anomalies instead of subtracting from boxes & is available over all calendar months instead of DJF. This is really cool. http://www.wxmidwest.com/tnh/


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#226
Phil

Posted 27 November 2015 - 11:45 AM

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Yep, it's clear across all timescales that the NAM is positive generally centered around December, with a classic top down response leading to disruption in January. All I'm saying is that the state of the NAM as a whole is generally more positive during Strong-Super El Nino events, even when you exclude the obvious masking of the true signal by volcanic eruptions. I think the large El Ninos helping to induce a very extensive/strong Pacific jet thus leading to an extreme southeastward progression of the Aleutian Low has a lot to do with this by shifting the epicenter of EP flux and RW upwelling away from the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands, which was determined by Garfinkel et al to be the tropospheric precursor to SSWEs... There are also intriguing seesaw relationships between the Aleutian & Icelandic Vortices that allow for large El Ninos to be more conducive to maintaining a +NAO/AO... The most interesting take away from all of this is the weaker NAM leaking into in February in the modern era, most of the pre 1950 events featured the classical mid-winter response but backed off later on.

Thanks BTW for the kind words. :)


Agreed that prolific Niños make it more difficult for a properly aligned NPAC wave conduit, which is what you want for an abrupt wave-2/dual wave type resonance (which is what would be in reference here). I'd favor a more gradual, wave-1 type resonance in a year like this, favoring a more gradual NAM decline through January. On the other hand, we might just go nuclear under constructive interference, like we did in 2006-07. I'm definitely a fan of the expansive nature of the vortex this year.

As for the apparent +NAM tendency in prolific Niños, I suspect a lot of what you're observing (beyond the 11/15-1/15 timeframe) is due to other factors, at least in the events that have occurred since 1950. When analyzing the NAM in the years of 1957-58, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1987-88, and 1997-98, the observed behaviors in each case, while obviously ENSO-influenced, were significantly altered by a number interfering forcings, all of which happened to favor a more +NAM than would otherwise have been the case. Hopefully, we can turn this year into a learning experience, when it comes to strong El Niños and seasonal pattern progression.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#227
iFred

Posted 30 November 2015 - 05:06 PM

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Latest forecasts still keep with the Neutral-Mega Nina theme.

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#228
Chris

Posted 02 February 2016 - 11:11 AM

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Info from Daniel Swain on El Nino update:  http://www.weatherwe...m/archives/3836

 

Reminder: when it comes to El Niño, strength matters.

The prospect of an El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean always generates quite a bit of interest in California. This attention largely stems from the fact that two of California’s wettest years on record—1982-1983 and 1997-1998—occurred during the strongest El Niño years in living memory. The popular perception that El Niño always brings a lot of water to the Golden State, though, is not particularly accurate.  The reality is a bit more nuanced: particularly strong El Niño events exert a powerful influence upon the atmosphere over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, and really do have a tendency to enhance the storm track in a way that favors greatly enhanced precipitation across the entire state of California. But more middling weak to moderate events don’t have nearly as pronounced an effect, and in many cases don’t meaningfully affect the odds of seeing wetter or drier than average conditions in California. The main reason for this nonlinear effect is that other periodic oceanic and atmosphere oscillations (other than El Niño) still play a major role in California’s winter weather, and unless El Niño is powerful enough to consistently outweigh all of them, the net effect can swing either way. The key message here: strong El Niño events are the ones to watch out for from a California weather perspective, and it’s reasonable to expect that such events greatly increase the odds of wet conditions throughout the state.

 

fig1.gif?resize=565%2C437

Subtropical ridging between Hawaii and California has been more prominent so far during 2015-2016 than during the 82/83 or 97/98 events. (NCEP via ESRL)

 

 

How is the present El Niño different from other big ones in the past 40 years?

Given that climatologists and meteorologists know to look out for strong El Niño events as uniquely strong predictors of California seasonal precipitation, how does the present event compare to other major historical events? Well, depending on the exact metric, the present El Niño is either the strongest or among the strongest events in the observed record going back to at least 1950. Ocean temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean—the most traditional measure of El Niño’s amplitude—have been at or above their record highest values for at least several months now. So despite assertions to the contrary, the 2015-2016 El Niño is not “a bust” by any means.

But absolute sea surface temperatures don’t always tell the whole story. While the present El Niño is indeed among the strongest ever recorded, the atmospheric response to the warm ocean temperatures this year has been a bit different than we have observed during other big historical events. Over the northeastern Pacific, El Niño acts to deepen the semi-permanent Gulf of Alaska low while simultaneously strengthening (and, literally, straightening) the jet stream over the eastern Pacific Ocean. This enhanced and “more zonal” (i.e. more west-to-east) jet stream is what tends to bring increased winter precipitation to California (and, sometimes, even the Pacific Northwest) during strong El Niño years.

These atmospheric effects occur due to a fairly complex chain of events that link the tropics to the mid-latitude atmosphere. Warmer than usual ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific increase thunderstorm activity there, which pumps vast quantities of heat into the upper atmosphere. This tropically warm air at upper levels eventually flows northward and descends back toward the surface of the Earth in the subtropics (at a latitude roughly equivalent to that of Hawaii). This enhanced “Hadley circulation” during El Niño years increases the temperature differential between the warm tropics and cool Gulf of Alaska, which is what causes the jet stream to strengthen over the East Pacific.

 

fig2.gif?resize=565%2C437

Tropical convection associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño has been centered further north than in previous big events, with subsidence (downward motion; yellow/red colors) occurring closer to California on its northern flank. (NCEP via ESRL)

 

In late 2015 and early 2016, the atmosphere has indeed responded to the ongoing powerful El Niño much in the way that meteorologists have come to expect. The Pacific warmed; tropical thunderstorms increased; the Hadley cell strengthened; the Pacific jet began to roar. But this year, the Hadley cell has actually strengthened a bit more than expected. The descending air on its northern side has occurred closer to California, which means that the enhanced temperature differential is occurring farther to the north than during previous big El Niño events. Subtropical ridging between Hawaii and California has been more pronounced, and the El Niño-strengthened jet stream has set up shop primarily across Northern California and even the Pacific Northwest, rather than Southern California. From a global climate perspective, this is a relatively minor detail; if you happen to live in Los Angeles, though, it makes all the difference in the world.

 

fig3.gif?resize=232%2C300

While nearly all of California is expected to be above average in terms of season-to-date precipitation after this weekend’s Southern California storm, only the northern 2/3 of the state is above average for the full season to date. (NOAA via WRCC)

 

The net effect so far in 2015-2016: Northern California and the Pacific Northwest have gotten soaked, while Southern California has been left pretty dry (with a few notable exceptions). While a veritable “parade of storms” has indeed inundated the northern reaches of the state with very heavy precipitation, bringing the best Sierra Nevada snowpack in years, leading to huge inflows to large reservoirs in critical watersheds, and even causing some minor flooding at times, many of California’s most populous cities haven’t witnessed an especially remarkable winter to date. The San Francisco Bay Area and Sacramento region have seen “Water Year” precipitation to date that is pretty close to the long-term average (which, decidedly, seems like a lot relative to the extremely dry years witnessed as of late). The densely populated greater Los Angeles region, on the other hand, is well below average for the season to date (though with significant precipitation this past weekend, its January total may well end up near or above average). From a long-term drought relief perspective, the season to date looks pretty good—precipitation is near or above average in most of California’s largest watersheds, and the water stored in the critical Sierra Nevada snowpack is uniformly above average. So far, though, this isn’t quite the blockbuster year that many had hoped for (especially in the south).

 

What does the near-term future hold?

So what are our prospects for the rest of the season? Well, El Niño is certainly still with us, and it’s still a top-tier event. For that reason, the good money’s still on a wetter than average season for California (yes, even now). This is especially true since the precipitation during strong El Niño years is often heavily “back weighted,” with an unusually large fraction of seasonal totals occurring during the second half of the rainy season from February-April. What is less clear, at this point, is whether the northerly-shifted atmospheric response to this El Niño will persist—and whether Southern California will start to make up for lost time. It’s certainly possible that a sudden transition to a much wetter pattern will occur, and it’s easy to forget that a surprisingly large fraction of precipitation in the Southland occurs during a handful of intense storms each year (even in strong El Niño years). From a statewide perspective, some substantial drought relief has already occurred this year, but there remain large regions in the southern part of the state that are still extremely dry. The refrain from earlier in the autumn is now more relevant than ever: while El Niño is likely to bring some degree of drought relief, California will likely still be facing long-term drought conditions by the coming summer.

 

Some thoughts regarding the bigger picture

Finally, there has been considerable discussion lately regarding why the atmospheric response to El Niño this year has been different than historically observed (and also than foreseen by some of the flagship seasonal forecast models). It’s impossible to ignore the fact that global temperatures in late 2015 and early 2016 have reached their highest levels in recorded human history. Part of this very recent warming is likely due to our record El Niño event, but the rest is pretty clearly attributable to the long-term warming trend associated the with human emission of greenhouse gases. While global mean temperature doesn’t directly affect El Niño teleconnections, per se, the Earth hasn’t been warming in a spatially uniform way. This year in particular, the subtropics and the polar regions have been especially warm relative to other parts of the world. It is possible that this spatial pattern of warming may be playing a role in the particular atmospheric configuration that has resulted from the 2015-2016 El Niño event.

 

16-008_712x400.jpeg?resize=300%2C169

2015 was the warmest year on record globally, but warmth has not been evenly distributed throughout the Northern Hemisphere. (NASA Scientific Visualization Studio)

 

Unfortunately, it is virtually impossible to say more than that in the present blog post. The pace of climate change attribution science is much slower than that of the atmosphere itself, and it’s hard to make causal inferences from observations alone. Climate models are often the best tool available for climate scientists to test the counterfactual reality: what would this year have looked like without global warming? But such experiments take a considerable amount of time to do the right way, so we’ll probably have to wait a while to find out more. I’m planning to write a series of posts on Weather West (beginning this coming summer) discussing the latest scientific evidence regarding how California’s climate will change in the future. Until then, though, hopefully El Niño will bring more uniformly distributed California drought relief in the coming months. Stay tuned.

 

© 2016 WEATHER WEST


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#229
Phil

Posted 02 February 2016 - 09:14 PM

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I don't understand why the observed (long term) broadening/poleward propagation of the Hadley Cells mystifies so many people. It has been ongoing since the 1970s, and has accelerated significantly since 1998. It also tells us a lot about our climate system, and the nature of the climate change.

Despite all the available data, so many scientists choose to ignore the facts in favor of ignorant and/or biased predispositions.
  • Webberweather53 likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#230
snow_wizard

Posted 03 February 2016 - 06:19 PM

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Is there an index that captures that?  I just can't visualize the mechanism that is driving it.  If there is no index could you create one?:


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 4

 

 


#231
Phil

Posted 03 February 2016 - 07:35 PM

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Is there an index that captures that? I just can't visualize the mechanism that is driving it. If there is no index could you create one?:


You can look at .2101 sigma streamfunction polarity, omegas, absolute VP200, AAM, or just about anything else involving momentum on the NOAA ESRL site to interpret the nature of the Hadley Cells. As a matter of fact, the 700mb omega depiction in Chris's quote/post above demonstrates the poleward migration in the cells since the 1983/1998 Niños.

As for what's driving these changes, it's likely a combination of factors. There is a substantial amount peer reviewed literature on the topic now, most of which pinpoints the cause to multiple (long term) changes to the causative thermal gradients in the upper troposphere & stratosphere, set off via changes in solar/geomagnetic forcing on chemistry and microphysical processes in cloud formation, a strengthening BDC/O^3 machine, additional CO^2/H^2O in the upper troposphere, and long term inertial/feedback responses, internal to the system, in response to the aforementioned climate change forcings.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#232
Chris

Posted 04 February 2016 - 01:36 PM

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Is there an index that captures that?  I just can't visualize the mechanism that is driving it.  If there is no index could you create one?:

 

A Hadley cell index is a great idea.  It would definitely simplify it for novices like me. 

 

cells_mod.png



#233
snow_wizard

Posted 04 February 2016 - 10:23 PM

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You can look at .2101 sigma streamfunction polarity, omegas, absolute VP200, AAM, or just about anything else involving momentum on the NOAA ESRL site to interpret the nature of the Hadley Cells. As a matter of fact, the 700mb omega depiction in Chris's quote/post above demonstrates the poleward migration in the cells since the 1983/1998 Niños.

As for what's driving these changes, it's likely a combination of factors. There is a substantial amount peer reviewed literature on the topic now, most of which pinpoints the cause to multiple (long term) changes to the causative thermal gradients in the upper troposphere & stratosphere, set off via changes in solar/geomagnetic forcing on chemistry and microphysical processes in cloud formation, a strengthening BDC/O^3 machine, additional CO^2/H^2O in the upper troposphere, and long term inertial/feedback responses, internal to the system, in response to the aforementioned climate change forcings.

 

Do you think the upcoming major solar minimum will offset this?  I hope this is one of those cases where the northward migration has been gradual, but a return to "normal" will be very sudden.  I have seen other atmospheric features that have done that.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 4

 

 


#234
snow_wizard

Posted 04 February 2016 - 10:25 PM

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A Hadley cell index is a great idea.  It would definitely simplify it for novices like me. 

 

cells_mod.png

 

Yeah...I have actually made some of my own indices for placement of anomalies over the NE Pacific.  It helps to see what is really going on.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 4

 

 


#235
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 09 February 2016 - 02:32 AM

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I don't understand why the observed (long term) broadening/poleward propagation of the Hadley Cells mystifies so many people. It has been ongoing since the 1970s, and has accelerated significantly since 1998. It also tells us a lot about our climate system, and the nature of the climate change.

Despite all the available data, so many scientists choose to ignore the facts in favor of ignorant and/or biased predispositions.

 

I don't think it is discussed very much except on some weather forums. You are the first one I have seen that has mentioned the Hadley Cells expanding poleward. Only very recently have I seen or heard this concept mentioned elsewhere, and that has only been during the last week or two.



#236
Webberweather53

Posted 17 March 2016 - 05:32 AM

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I was finally able to compile a preliminary analysis on the Oceanic NINO Index going back to 1865 by utilizing 26 SST, Reanalysis, & Satellite datasets with some initial quality control (particularly from 1891-1950). I anticipate several revisions and additions to this index over the coming months and years...

Overall, an appreciable warming signal in the tropical Pacific since the mid-late 19th century is particularly evident, especially in the NINO 3.4 region, where the 26 dataset mean indicates a linear warming rate of approximately 0.2C per century in the 30-year sliding base periods that are used to calculate the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), whereas since World War II the rate of warming has approximately tripled to 0.6C per century...

ENS-ONI-NINO-3.4-Region-30-year-Moving-B

 

According to this index, the 2015-16 El Nino was the strongest NINO on record w/ a maximum ONI value of +2.56C in NDJ and it was in "Super" NINO (Hansen 2006) territory for several months, with the ranking data suggesting that the incumbent El Nino was already a super event as early as last June (Super NINOs, as noted in the subsequent text files, were defined as ENSO events which exceeded the upper half of the 1st decile (i.e. >/= 95th percentile or approximately equating to the top 5 highest and lowest ENSO rankings)).

The ENS-ONI index reached its 2nd highest value on record for DJF this past month, only eclipsed by the 1877-78 Super NINO. 

ENS-ONI Tri-Monthly Rankings (1991-Present).
Maroon=Super El Nino
Red=Strong El Nino
Orange=Moderate El Nino
Yellow-Orange= Weak El Nino
Plain Text=Neutral ENSO
Very Light Blue=Weak La Nina
Light Blue=Moderate La Nina
Blue=Strong La Nina
Dark Blue=Super La Nina

 

Standardized-CPC-ENS-ONI-Rankings-1991-P

 

However, if one accounts for not only the obvious uncertainties in the SST data, but the modern warming rate of the NINO 3.4 region, 1877-78 & 1997-98 super NINOs may eventually reclaim the top spots once the new 30-year sliding base periods become available.

Here are the raw, standardized, & ranking files to the ENS-ONI

Raw: http://weatheradvanc...5-Present-4.txt

 

Standardized http://weatheradvanc...5-Present-1.txt

 

Rankings http://weatheradvanc...865-Present.txt

 

Standardized ENS ONI Timeseries

Standardized-Ensemble-Oceanic-NINO-Index


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#237
Phil

Posted 17 March 2016 - 08:44 AM

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What is the particular surface-satellite aggregation used to determine the long term trend in the Niño 3.4 region? I ask this because since 1979, neither NOAA-STAR, RSS, or the UAH interpolations for the tropical Pacific depict much (if any) warming over the tropical pacific or Niño 3.4 region since the beginning of the satellite era.

Personally, I'm weary of using surface-based datasets to gauge SSTs (on an exact basis) before the ARGO-era.
  • Webberweather53 likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#238
Webberweather53

Posted 17 March 2016 - 02:24 PM

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What is the particular surface-satellite aggregation used to determine the long term trend in the Niño 3.4 region? I ask this because since 1979, neither NOAA-STAR, RSS, or the UAH interpolations for the tropical Pacific depict much (if any) warming over the tropical pacific or Niño 3.4 region since the beginning of the satellite era.

Personally, I'm weary of using surface-based datasets to gauge SSTs (on an exact basis) before the ARGO-era.

 

All of the datasets & their time ranges were provided in the text files, the satellite only and surface data are apples-oranges, the satellite data has egregious errors and inhomogeneities in comparison to the surface datasets and measures lower tropospheric temperatures (w/ yet another major upward adjustment being noted in UAH data) and requires more appreciable adjustments as a whole, while the majority of the available of reconstructions (including COBE SST2, ERSSTv4, ERSSTv3b, COBE SST (except for HADISST & Kaplan, although the UKMO notes a prominent discontinuity in their dataset around the international dateline starting in 1982 (when satellite data was being introduced in earnest & Kaplan's extended SSTv2 still utilizes a dual SST-interface, using the now defunct (Met Office Historical Sea Surface Temperature Version 5 (MOHSSTv5)) for its analysis until of the start of the satellite era)) depict a fairly robust warming trend in the NINO 3.4 region, hence why NOAA tossed their old methodology of utilizing only the 1971-2000 base period for calculating the ONI. Even if you were to completely ignore the warming trend in the NINO 3.4 region (w/ the 1976-2005 30-yr base period generally being depicted as the warmest base period in the entire record across most datasets, (hence the satellite & buoy data are likely not reporting a warming trend because they're initializing in the warmest portion of the historical record), the 30-year climatological sliding base periods make the observational background more relevant, I also considered using different base period lengths, but performing a wavelet analysis was beyond the scope of my project, at least for now anyways...



#239
Webberweather53

Posted 10 May 2016 - 12:17 PM

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I just updated my ENS-ONI index thru FMA. I made a few quality control adjustments to the original product, I most recently extended & reevaluated COBE SST2 data & due to the larger number of available observations, available datasets, & data sources, I tightened the QC in the satellite era, which slightly amplified this index & the peaks of most ENSO events relative to its predecessor, including the incumbent Super El NINO. I plan to continue to make improvements to the ENS-ONI, such as including more high resolution datasets, HADISST2, and incorporating the Southern Oscillation i.e. Sea Level Pressure (thus creating a multivariate index), etc.). FMA 2016 observed one of the highest ONI values on record, 2nd only to the 1877-78 Super El Nino. We're likely to be in moderate territory in MAM & persistence + analogs argue for neutral ENSO to return in MJJ & a NINA in JAS-ASO...

http://weatheradvanc...a-1865-2016.txt

 

Screen-Shot-2016-05-10-at-3.55.53-PM-102


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#240
Phil

Posted 10 May 2016 - 03:11 PM

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Thanks for the great work, Eric. Your reanalyses have really helped me with the relativistic analoging I do.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#241
Webberweather53

Posted 17 July 2016 - 05:12 PM

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ICMYI, I recently have reanalyzed and made several improvements to Klaus Wolter's Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) & have updated my ENS-ONI... The implementation of detrended PCs based on more data than the original MEI and 30-year sliding base periods for each PC led to the most significant changes wrt this version of the MEI & the original. Most notably, the gap between the 1982-83 & 1997-98 Super NINOs widened, and the 2010-11 NINA surpassed 1955-56 as the strongest event in the modern era, and given the dearth of robust NINAs in the mid 20th century (1920s-1940s), 2010-11 may also be the strongest NINA in nearly a century (or more) with 1916-17 being the nearest potential rival before 1955-56.

 

http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Ensemble-Oceanic-NINO-Index-ENS-ONI-Raw-Data-1865-2016-2.txt

 

I would definitely like to apply some of these adjustments (& a few additional ones to account for poor observations (& a lack thereof)) into a revised Extended Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI.ext)

My revised MEI time series w/ NCEI/NCAR Reanalysis

Screen-Shot-2016-07-16-at-2.38.26-PM-102

 

 

Raw NCEI/NCAR Reanalysis MEI data

http://weatheradvanc...948-Present.txt

 

Original MEI http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ w/ IOCADSv2.5

 

Screen-Shot-2016-07-11-at-10.47.49-AM-10

 

 

December-January loading fields for the (detrended) leading mode of variability (1st PC) for Sea Surface Temperature (SST) & Sea Level Pressure (SLP) in the Tropical Pacific (1950-2015)

SLP

Screen-Shot-2016-07-16-at-10.10.50-PM-10

 

 

SST (Skin temperature in NCEI/NCAR R1)

Screen-Shot-2016-07-16-at-10.24.46-PM-10

 

BTW, I strongly encourage any comments, questions, concerns, or potential avenues of improvement regarding the MEI's construction, because I may find those extremely helpful in my upcoming revision of the Extended MEI (MEI.ext)...


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#242
Webberweather53

Posted 10 January 2017 - 07:14 AM

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Just finished updating my ENS ONI index which I've been running in real-time for almost a year now. I made several improvements and corrections to the index in this monthly update to increase the reliability, quality, and confidence of the data. The most significant changes were the institution of a confidence interval to sift for potentially spurious data, addition of relatively new, high-quality ECMWF Reanalysis 20th Century & 20th Century model (ERA-20C, ERA-20CM) datasets (1900-2010), and removal of buoy data (ARGO & TAO), and UKMO GHRSST OSTIA & OISSTv2 (1/4th degree datasets). The buoy data was found to have a very large warm bias as compared to all other datasets, and OISTIA & high res OISSTv2 have very different resolutions against the other datasets, and their addition to the ENS ONI likely was causing some artificial dampening of the index in the satellite era.

2016-17 is very likely going to be recognized as a weak La Nina in this index, while new ENSO events were resolved in 1867-68 (weak El Nino) & 1906-07 (weak La Nina)

 

 

Ensemble-ONI-1865-Dec-2016-Time-series.p

 

http://weatheradvanc...a-1865-2017.txt


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#243
Chris

Posted 19 January 2017 - 02:37 PM

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Just finished updating my ENS ONI index which I've been running in real-time for almost a year now. I made several improvements and corrections to the index in this monthly update to increase the reliability, quality, and confidence of the data. The most significant changes were the institution of a confidence interval to sift for potentially spurious data, addition of relatively new, high-quality ECMWF Reanalysis 20th Century & 20th Century model (ERA-20C, ERA-20CM) datasets (1900-2010), and removal of buoy data (ARGO & TAO), and UKMO GHRSST OSTIA & OISSTv2 (1/4th degree datasets). The buoy data was found to have a very large warm bias as compared to all other datasets, and OISTIA & high res OISSTv2 have very different resolutions against the other datasets, and their addition to the ENS ONI likely was causing some artificial dampening of the index in the satellite era.

2016-17 is very likely going to be recognized as a weak La Nina in this index, while new ENSO events were resolved in 1867-68 (weak El Nino) & 1906-07 (weak La Nina)

 

 

Ensemble-ONI-1865-Dec-2016-Time-series.p

 

http://weatheradvanc...a-1865-2017.txt

 

So last year's Nino was the strongest on record.  Great stuff.


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#244
charlie

Posted 18 April 2017 - 02:59 PM

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I just finished writing a blog up on the current status/predicted evolution of the El Nino in the tropical Pacific.

The abstract: Nino 1+2 are experiencing El Nino-like warmth, but this warmth has not spread to Nino 3.4 yet, and the Walker Circulation is actually more representative of what we'd expect during a La Nina, with enhanced convection over the Western Pacific. Dynamical models are in surprisingly good agreement that a weak El Nino will develop in the summer, but statistical models are not sold on the idea (they generally have a tougher time with the spring predictability barrier though).

http://charlie.weath...n-this-summer/ 


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#245
Chris

Posted 19 April 2017 - 02:48 PM

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So, I've been looking far ahead in my research over the last several months, and I think I'm ready to make a few calls. For one, I believe there is very strong evidence, perhaps undeniably so, that a slew of multidecadal system-state flips are officially upon us, operating underneath the interdecadal oscillators that have driven our clusters of warm/cold winters in recent years.

In regards to the upcoming winters, it should be noted that, minus a few stand-alone exceptions during solar maximums, most of our "very warm" winters tend to cluster in groups of three, with the final year featuring a clear mid-winter system state shift.

It just so happens that the winters of 2015/16 and 2016/17 were both historically warm, and were consistent in a number of ways outside the realm of ENSO. So, both for statistical reasons and via more complicated scientific interpolations, I believe there's a very good chance that next winter (2017/18) will mark the grand finale of the ongoing cycle of warm winters, and I also believe there will be a very notable shift in the low frequency polar/NATL circulation(s), sometime January and April of next winter.

While next winter will probably average warm overall, most of the governing parameters are/will be headed in a decisively "colder" direction as the current 11 year Schwabe solar magnetic cycle winds down, the QBO eventually flips negative (evidence of the next -QBO is now manifesting at the stratopause following the most recent SAO cycle), and the global meridional thermal gradient in ocean-heat content continues to sharpen (both due to multidecadal fluid-inertial resonances already ongoing, and a continuation of the longer during transition into the neiglacial circulation, in response to decreasing obliquity/tightening meridional insolation gradient).

So, without getting into the mechanics of it all, I really do think the next several years (2017-2020) will be exciting to watch unfold, and if anything are a prelude to even bigger changes during 2020-2025. Assuming the system state remains in its late-Holocene, post-LIA mode, then, given the established system state response(s) to external forcings in relation to its antecedent fluid resonant mode during perturbation, I think we can expect the following ENSO results:

2017/18: Weak Niño/warm neutral
2018/19: Uncertain (boundary year)
2019/20: Mod/Strong El Niño (solar minimum response)
2020/21: Mod/Strong La Niña (rebound year)
2021/22: Mod/Strong La Niña (rebound year)
2022/23: Uncertain (boundary year)

Looking forward to watching this all unfold. :)



#246
Phil

Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:07 PM

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I'm very bullish for a moderate or strong El Niño in 2019/20.

The low-solar wind Niño is perhaps the most consistent climatic response in existence except for the QBO. It's been a stable feature following the previous five solar wind minima (2009/10, 1997/98, 1986/87, 1976/77, 1965/66).
  • Webberweather53 likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#247
Webberweather53

Posted 23 April 2017 - 12:15 PM

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Just finished updating my ENS ONI index which I've been running in real-time for almost a year now. I made several improvements and corrections to the index in this monthly update to increase the reliability, quality, and confidence of the data. The most significant changes were the institution of a confidence interval to sift for potentially spurious data, addition of relatively new, high-quality ECMWF Reanalysis 20th Century & 20th Century model (ERA-20C, ERA-20CM) datasets (1900-2010), and removal of buoy data (ARGO & TAO), and UKMO GHRSST OSTIA & OISSTv2 (1/4th degree datasets). The buoy data was found to have a very large warm bias as compared to all other datasets, and OISTIA & high res OISSTv2 have very different resolutions against the other datasets, and their addition to the ENS ONI likely was causing some artificial dampening of the index in the satellite era.

2016-17 is very likely going to be recognized as a weak La Nina in this index, while new ENSO events were resolved in 1867-68 (weak El Nino) & 1906-07 (weak La Nina)

 

 

Ensemble-ONI-1865-Dec-2016-Time-series.p

 

http://weatheradvanc...a-1865-2017.txt

 

I will have an updated version of this index out relatively soon as I'm currently having to reanalyze all the QC w/ the addition of CERA-20C to the suite of datasets used to calculate the ENS ONI. I'm very excited for what the next several months-year or so hold for this index as Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set version 2 (HADISST2), NOAA's 20th Century Reanalysis Version 3 (1851-Present), ERSST Version 5 (1854-present), and ERA-5 (1950-Present) are expected to be released within the next year or so.


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#248
Phil

Posted 23 April 2017 - 01:32 PM

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I will have an updated version of this index out relatively soon as I'm currently having to reanalyze all the QC w/ the addition of CERA-20C to the suite of datasets used to calculate the ENS ONI. I'm very excited for what the next several months-year or so hold for this index as Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set version 2 (HADISST2), NOAA's 20th Century Reanalysis Version 3 (1851-Present), ERSST Version 5 (1854-present), and ERA-5 (1950-Present) are expected to be released within the next year or so.


I hope to god ERSSTv5 is an improvement over the catastrophe that was ERSSTv4. If not, I'm never using the ERSSTs again.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#249
Webberweather53

Posted 23 April 2017 - 02:23 PM

Webberweather53

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I hope to god ERSSTv5 is an improvement over the catastrophe that was ERSSTv4. If not, I'm never using the ERSSTs again.

 

Here are a few key points currently being dealt w/ in the production of ERSSTv5.

 

C93FYtWVwAA7enm.jpg



#250
Phil

Posted 23 April 2017 - 03:03 PM

Phil

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Here are a few key points currently being dealt w/ in the production of ERSSTv5.

C93FYtWVwAA7enm.jpg


Interesting. I would like to see some satellite data added back into it, at least in the limited style of ERSSTv3.
  • Webberweather53 likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph





Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: ENSO, Sun, QBO, KW, MJO, etc