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October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

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#1
TT-SEA

Posted 01 October 2016 - 06:15 AM

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Hello October...

 

14480583_1099088083492732_59646060920495


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#2
stuffradio

Posted 01 October 2016 - 07:12 AM

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CFSv2 is pretty cool up and down most of the BC coast for Nov. It shows above normal temps starting in SW BC though.



#3
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2016 - 07:49 AM

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October is certainly starting out on a good note.  I'm hoping for a mix of GOA blocking and cool zonal flow to dominate the month.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#4
stuffradio

Posted 01 October 2016 - 08:27 AM

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Good news!

http://cliffmass.blo...ening-blob.html



#5
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2016 - 09:15 AM

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I disagree about it being totally good news.  We want a warm pool over the GOA, because it one of the requirements for a minus PDO.  Also persistent high pressure over the GOA is a big player in many of our big winters.  I still think the overall persistence of the anomalous GOA ridge this summer and early autumn is a good sign it will make an appearance for part of the winter.


  • Phil likes this
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#6
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2016 - 09:19 AM

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Good news!
http://cliffmass.blo...ening-blob.html


I don't like reading his blog. It's always upsetting seeing so much misinformation being spread to the public on various topics. Actively dumbing people down with regard to meteorology.
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#7
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:10 AM

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I don't like reading his blog. It's always upsetting seeing so much misinformation being spread to the public on various topics. Actively dumbing people down with regard to meteorology.

 

Some of it was accurate, but the premise the warm pool over the GOA is bad for snow in the NW is dubious.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#8
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:19 AM

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Some of it was accurate, but the premise the warm pool over the GOA is bad for snow in the NW is dubious.


Of course he is right about some things. But every blog of his that I've read seems to promote a really oversimplified way of looking at weather/climate overall.
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#9
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2016 - 11:16 AM

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Pretty good looking 12z Euro run.

#10
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 11:19 AM

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Niño-ish look continues on most long range guidance. Looks like 7/10 years here featured +ENSO:

500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#11
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 11:24 AM

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Funny to see 1997/98 still showing up as an analog. :lol:

Typical Niña cells are displaced so far west they're starting to resemble an east-based Niño setup.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#12
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2016 - 11:25 AM

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Niño-ish look continues on most long range guidance. Looks like 7/10 years here featured +ENSO:

500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

 

Actually some nice years in that mix.  Looks like 4 Ninas and some neutrals.

 

I do hope we see a return to NE Pacific ridging the second half of the month.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#13
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2016 - 11:30 AM

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Actually some nice years in that mix.  Looks like 4 Ninas and some neutrals.

 

I do hope we see a return to NE Pacific ridging the second half of the month.

 

It has risen from the ashes many times in the last several months.



#14
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 11:32 AM

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Actually some nice years in that mix. Looks like 4 Ninas and some neutrals.


Yeah miscounted, looks like 6yrs featured +ENSOs, while 4yrs featured -ENSOs. That's still notable, especially considering the aggregate leans heavily Niño w/ strong EPAC/WHEM forcing.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#15
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2016 - 11:41 AM

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Yeah miscounted, looks like 6yrs featured +ENSOs, while 4yrs featured -ENSOs. That's still notable, especially considering the aggregate leans heavily Niño w/ strong EPAC/WHEM forcing.

 

How so? Are we going to have a nino-like winter? Or is it possible the 11-15 day models may be uncharacteristically wrong? ;)



#16
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 October 2016 - 11:47 AM

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Pretty raw afternoon out here. 51F with rain showers and a light N/NW wind.

#17
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 October 2016 - 11:52 AM

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With Matthew riding up the east coast and typhoon energy possibly blowing up a strong storm over the Aleutians next week, we are probably going to see some big model swings. 12z Canadian went to a strong westcoast ridge in the long range.

#18
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2016 - 11:55 AM

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With Matthew riding up the east coast and typhoon energy possibly blowing up a strong storm over the Aleutians next week, we are probably going to see some big model swings. 12z Canadian went to a strong westcoast ridge in the long range.

 

A strong West Coast ridge could actually work out well.  Most October Arctic outbreaks are preceded by one.


  • Phil likes this
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#19
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2016 - 11:56 AM

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Pretty raw afternoon out here. 51F with rain showers and a light N/NW wind.

 

That is REALLY cool.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#20
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 October 2016 - 12:12 PM

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That is REALLY cool.

The upper elevations of Mount Washington resort, central Vancouver Island, are blanketed in Snow. 

 

small5.jpg?image=57



#21
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 12:18 PM

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How so? Are we going to have a nino-like winter? Or is it possible the 11-15 day models may be uncharacteristically wrong? ;)


Didn't say anything about winter. ;)

I posted my winter thoughts a week ago. Was just describing the modeled pattern progression in the near term. It's notable in that it neither fits a classic Niño or Niña progression.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#22
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 12:23 PM

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Didn't say anything about winter. ;)

I posted my winter thoughts a week ago. Was just describing the modeled pattern progression in the near term. It's notable in that it neither fits a classic Niño or Niña progression.


To clarify, note the mix of strong Niños (1997/98, etc) and strong Niñas (1975/76, etc) on the CPC analog aggregate. Very peculiar pattern upcoming.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#23
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2016 - 12:30 PM

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Pretty decent ensemble support for a flat ridge at hour 240 of the Euro.

#24
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2016 - 12:49 PM

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Didn't say anything about winter. ;)

I posted my winter thoughts a week ago. Was just describing the modeled pattern progression in the near term. It's notable in that it neither fits a classic Niño or Niña progression.


Got it. Fair enough. Sometimes it's hard to tell what you're getting at.

#25
Front Ranger

Posted 01 October 2016 - 01:13 PM

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Niño-ish look continues on most long range guidance. Looks like 7/10 years here featured +ENSO:

500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

 

Doesn't look Nino-ish for October to me.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#26
Front Ranger

Posted 01 October 2016 - 01:15 PM

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The upper elevations of Mount Washington resort, central Vancouver Island, are blanketed in Snow. 

 

small5.jpg?image=57

 

Coldest, windiest place in the world, amiright?


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#27
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2016 - 01:17 PM

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Doesn't look Nino-ish for October to me.

 

Me neither. I've been having a lot of trouble following his thoughts lately.



#28
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 01:23 PM

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Got it. Fair enough. Sometimes it's hard to tell what you're getting at.


My fault. I was posting while driving in bumper-to-bumper traffic, so my attention was split.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#29
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 October 2016 - 01:26 PM

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My fault. I was posting while driving in bumper-to-bumper traffic, so my attention was split.

That's a hefty fine up here. Been there and paid that. Over 300 bucks.
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#30
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 01:28 PM

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Doesn't look Nino-ish for October to me.


What are you looking at? The modeling very much resembles an east-based niño cell. It really doesn't get any more straightforward than this..d11-15 ECMWF ensemble mean:

4C43F616-B8C0-490B-89ED-D22859637F3D_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#31
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 01:31 PM

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That's a hefty fine up here. Been there and paid that. Over 300 bucks.


Yikes. You can usually get away with it here as long as your vehicle isn't in motion. Still technically against the law I think.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#32
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2016 - 01:32 PM

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That's a hefty fine up here. Been there and paid that. Over 300 bucks.


Please tell me you were posting a warm model upate here.

#33
Front Ranger

Posted 01 October 2016 - 01:35 PM

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What are you looking at? The modeling very much resembles an east-based niño cell. It really doesn't get any more straightforward than this..d11-15 ECMWF ensemble mean:
 

 

It's October. Only 3 of the analog years were true Ninos. Troughing right off the west coast of North America is not really a Nino signal this time of year. Strong ridging would be.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#34
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2016 - 01:36 PM

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Octoberish out there!
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#35
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 October 2016 - 01:39 PM

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Please tell me you were posting a warm model upate here.

Haha. No. But good one.
Just looking at your phone is a fine. I was reading a text at the time.
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#36
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 01:41 PM

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It's October. Only 3 of the analog years were true Ninos. Troughing right off the west coast of North America is not really a Nino signal this time of year. Strong ridging would be.


No offense, but I think you've got it backwards, similar to the claims that September and December 2015 resembled Niña cells, when in fact these were coherent east-biased Niño cells.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#37
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2016 - 01:45 PM

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Octoberish out there!


It's a lovely day.

#38
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 01:46 PM

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Deep NPAC/GOA troughing is a classic component of a Niño regime, where subsidence dominates the IO/MT domain. This is fairly straightforward stuff, in my opinion.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#39
TT-SEA

Posted 01 October 2016 - 01:50 PM

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Partly cloudy again around Seattle and here as well.    WRF missed the band of rain that came through in the last couple hours though.

 

sea52.png



#40
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 01:54 PM

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Just to elaborate on this, here's the week2 VP200 forecast from the GEFS, and the corresponding 10m zonal wind anomalies.

Note the westerly winds over th Equatorial Pacific, corresponding to the EHEM subsidence, in conjunction with convective forcing dominating out of the WHEM. Though not really a "classic" ENSO cell of any kind, it's definitely closer to an east-based Niño than a west-based Niña.

VP200 anomalies:

B62E95F4-A302-41E4-AC15-DAB2C71FE651_zps

10m zonal wind anomalies:

EE52D178-68C4-46EC-B40A-A824407EEEA0_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#41
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 October 2016 - 01:59 PM

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The first pic is how September ended at Three Creeks Lake in the Central Oregon Cascades. The 2nd pic is how October began.

 

14543619_602414815084_1762349237_n.jpg?o

14569708_602414805104_2003493419_n.jpg?o


  • Phil and Jesse like this

Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#42
jakeinthevalley

Posted 01 October 2016 - 02:31 PM

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That's what you get above 6000' I imagine Tam McArthur Rim was a bit frosted.

#43
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2016 - 02:54 PM

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That's what you get above 6000' I imagine Tam McArthur Rim was a bit frosted.

 

Tam McArther gets pretty high. Up towards 7-8,000. It's a fantastic hike along the rim on a clear day. You can see north all the way to Adams, which is crazy.



#44
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 October 2016 - 03:05 PM

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Tam McArther gets pretty high. Up towards 7-8,000. It's a fantastic hike along the rim on a clear day. You can see north all the way to Adams, which is crazy.

 

It has been almost a decade since I had been to Three Creeks and done Tam McArthur. Did not feel like doing it this morning though. ;)


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#45
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2016 - 03:12 PM

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It has been almost a decade since I had been to Three Creeks and done Tam McArthur. Did not feel like doing it this morning though. ;)

 

Yeah, I imagine that weather conditions are probably pretty nasty on the higher part of the rim today.

 

The last time I was up there was with my brother in September of 2010. It was a clear but coolish day, and we had a pretty great view.



#46
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 October 2016 - 03:53 PM

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Yeah, I imagine that weather conditions are probably pretty nasty on the higher part of the rim today.

 

The last time I was up there was with my brother in September of 2010. It was a clear but coolish day, and we had a pretty great view.

 

September and October are my favorite times of year to hike and camp. Was able to do a little hiking at Silver Falls yesterday. Hoping to get to Jefferson Park in a couple weeks if the weather is doable. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#47
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 04:18 PM

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For the fun of it, here's Sep/Oct during the last 3 super niños.

Looks a tad familiar, doesn't it?

692B53CF-D028-4056-9827-3C958AE309D5_zps

Now here's the d10-15 GEFS. Haha. Except for the opposite NAO signal, the upcoming pattern looks like a carbon copy of the Sep/Oct Super Niño analogs.

F867F1F4-1044-4969-A901-9D2647DCD294_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F

#48
MossMan

Posted 01 October 2016 - 04:59 PM

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Had about a two hour break of the moderate/heavy rain here in Long Beach in the late morning hours....enough time wear out the kid and dogs on the beach.

#49
Bryant

Posted 01 October 2016 - 07:21 PM

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Fairly decent cell pushing north near Sedro Woolley right now, been hearing thunder on and off
  • Phil likes this

#50
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 07:42 PM

Phil

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OT, but check out this awesome photo of sprites associated with hurricane Matthew. Some researchers theorize this activity can predict storm evolution.

B5755E99-AFA6-411A-883C-7A239772DD80_zps
  • Dan the Weatherman likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground:
https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 7
Severe days: 4
Rain total: 10.80"
High at/above 90*F: 4
Warmest high: 96.4*F
Warmest low: 73.7*F