October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The first pic is how September ended at Three Creeks Lake in the Central Oregon Cascades. The 2nd pic is how October began.

 

[jakeinthevalley]

That's what you get above 6000' I imagine Tam McArthur Rim was a bit frosted.

[Jesse]

That's what you get above 6000' I imagine Tam McArthur Rim was a bit frosted.

 

Tam McArther gets pretty high. Up towards 7-8,000. It's a fantastic hike along the rim on a clear day. You can see north all the way to Adams, which is crazy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tam McArther gets pretty high. Up towards 7-8,000. It's a fantastic hike along the rim on a clear day. You can see north all the way to Adams, which is crazy.

 

It has been almost a decade since I had been to Three Creeks and done Tam McArthur. Did not feel like doing it this morning though.

[Jesse]

It has been almost a decade since I had been to Three Creeks and done Tam McArthur. Did not feel like doing it this morning though.

 

Yeah, I imagine that weather conditions are probably pretty nasty on the higher part of the rim today.

 

The last time I was up there was with my brother in September of 2010. It was a clear but coolish day, and we had a pretty great view.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, I imagine that weather conditions are probably pretty nasty on the higher part of the rim today.

 

The last time I was up there was with my brother in September of 2010. It was a clear but coolish day, and we had a pretty great view.

 

September and October are my favorite times of year to hike and camp. Was able to do a little hiking at Silver Falls yesterday. Hoping to get to Jefferson Park in a couple weeks if the weather is doable. 

[Phil]

For the fun of it, here's Sep/Oct during the last 3 super niños.

 

Looks a tad familiar, doesn't it?

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/692B53CF-D028-4056-9827-3C958AE309D5_zpsohh7fn5y.png

 

Now here's the d10-15 GEFS. Haha. Except for the opposite NAO signal, the upcoming pattern looks like a carbon copy of the Sep/Oct Super Niño analogs.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F867F1F4-1044-4969-A901-9D2647DCD294_zpsesuwa25y.gif

[MossMan]

Had about a two hour break of the moderate/heavy rain here in Long Beach in the late morning hours....enough time wear out the kid and dogs on the beach.

[Bryant]

Fairly decent cell pushing north near Sedro Woolley right now, been hearing thunder on and off

[Phil]

OT, but check out this awesome photo of sprites associated with hurricane Matthew. Some researchers theorize this activity can predict storm evolution.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B5755E99-AFA6-411A-883C-7A239772DD80_zpsgrzdn3ai.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.32" of rain today. Love fall. 

[Phil]

Looks like the 00z GFS is going to try and break down that "flat ridge" south of the Aleutians in the clown range. That'd be a step in the right direction.

[snow_wizard]

The first pic is how September ended at Three Creeks Lake in the Central Oregon Cascades. The 2nd pic is how October began.

 

 

Really weird how there is snow on one side of the lake, but not the other.

[snow_wizard]

OT, but check out this awesome photo of sprites associated with hurricane Matthew. Some researchers theorize this activity can predict storm evolution.

 

 

Amazing!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really weird how there is snow on one side of the lake, but not the other.

 

Yes. I think the wind was so strong it was blowing spray onto the beach on that side which either melted or kept the snow from sticking. Because up in my campsite there was a dusting on the ground. At one point last night my tent almost blew into the campfire...That would have been a disaster!

 

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS looks a bit better.  The trough axis is a bit further east during week two which keeps the NW chillier and makes for higher pressure / heights over the Western GOA.

[Phil]

The 0z GFS looks a bit better. The trough axis is a bit further east during week two which keeps the NW chillier and makes for higher pressure / heights over the Western GOA.

Tries to break down the flat ridge over the Central NPAC, but can't finish it off. That thing has to go if ridging is to return over the GOA/EPO domain.

 

This pattern gives me the jitters because it can self-sustain to an amazing degree. It's probably the most difficult pattern to break.

[Phil]

Lol @ the 00z GFS analogs..it's a Niño party.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

[snow_wizard]

Tries to break down the flat ridge over the Central NPAC, but can't finish it off. That thing has to go if ridging is to return over the GOA/EPO domain.

 

This pattern gives me the jitters because it can self-sustain to an amazing degree. It's probably the most difficult pattern to break.

 

I guess the good news is it hasn't happened yet.

[snow_wizard]

Lol @ the 00z GFS analogs..it's a Niño party.

 

 

The operational is certainly better than that.  Interestingly 1984 and 2003 both went on to have late October Arctic outbreaks here.

[Jesse]

So, are we heading for a Nino?

[snow_wizard]

Probably worth mentioning the sun has gone blank again.  There have already been numerous blank periods and we are still well away from solar min.

[Phil]

The operational is certainly better than that. Interestingly 1984 and 2003 both went on to have late October Arctic outbreaks here.

Well, this is centered on d11, but spans +/- 2 weeks on either side. Definitely notable that 5/10 years were mod/strong Niños, while 7/10 were +ENSO.

 

1997-98, 1965-66, 1963-64, 1994-95, 1953-54, etc. Just funny.

[snow_wizard]

So, are we heading for a Nino?

 

No way, but for some reason the models are showing some aspects of the atmosphere going Ninoish.  I still wonder if what is being shown might fall through in spite of excellent model agreement on it.  I would feel much better seeing this a month from now.

[Phil]

So, are we heading for a Nino?

No, just a peculiar intraseasonal regime upcoming, which is also evidence of the weak/unstable background state. I'm always interested when brand new/unusual developments arise..it's a great learning opportunity.

 

On Twitter, we've refer to the weirdness this year as "2016ing", haha. Was sort of inspired by the QBO craziness that started back in May.

[snow_wizard]

Well, this is centered on d11, but spans +/- 2 weeks on either side. Definitely notable that 5/10 years were mod/strong Niños, while 7/10 were +ENSO.

 

1997-98, 1965-66, 1963-64, 1994-95, 1953-54, etc. Just funny.

 

To further add to the strangeness we are supposed to be in a continued strong trade wind burst at least through the 8th.

[BLI snowman]

Lol @ the 00z GFS analogs..it's a Niño party.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

 

Four Ninos, three Ninas, and three neutral. Seems pretty equally weighted to me. 

 

A lot of those were pretty dramatically wet early fall periods for our region, though. Seems to be the theme. Otherwise the "Nino" signatures with the CPC anaogs is going to shift repeatedly.

[snow_wizard]

September SOI was 13.82...the highest monthly reading since Dec 2011.

[Phil]

To further add to the strangeness we are supposed to be in a continued strong trade wind burst at least through the 8th.

Yeah, notable bi-hemispheric AAM disparity. The bifurcated tropical forcing is trying to pull us into a +EPO/+PNA, while the polar/NAM state is resisting it.

[Phil]

Four Ninos, three Ninas, and three neutral. Seems pretty equally weighted to me.

 

A lot of those were pretty dramatically wet early fall periods for our region, though. Seems to be the theme. Otherwise the "Nino" signatures with the CPC anaogs is going to shift repeatedly.

There's five Niños, actually, with two warm-neutrals and three Niñas. Easily leans Niño, IMO.

[Phil]

Just to highlight the Niño-ish nature of the forecasted pattern, here is the aggregate of the aforementioned years:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7390CC9B-2E4A-4B38-95F5-250A6420FEE7_zpssp5oxakh.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 00z GFS and its ensembles looks pretty typical for October, on the wetter end of things...Reading anymore into it than that is pretty infantile. 

[Phil]

This is funny, because current SSTAs are almost perfectly opposite. This is a good illustration of the distinction between the systematic background state, and intraseasonal forcing/feedback.

 

The SSTAs don't constrain the atmosphere to a high frequency degree. They only constrain the lower frequency background tendencies.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[Jesse]

Kind of beating the Nino thing into the ground, Phil. Especially considering even you claim that you don't think we're going into one.

[Phil]

The 00z GFS and its ensembles looks pretty typical for October, on the wetter end of things...Reading anymore into it than that is pretty infantile.

Kind of beating the Nino thing into the ground, Phil. Especially considering even you claim that you don't think we're going into one.

No one is "reading anymore into it". It's just a simple highlighting of emergent intraseasonal behaviors associated with typically inverse stimuli, hence why it's fascinating to me.

 

How/why these seemingly systematic behaviors emerge is one of the great mysteries of sub-seasonal meteorology.

[TT-SEA]

No one is "reading anymore into it". It's just a simple highlighting of emergent intraseasonal behaviors associated with typically inverse stimuli, hence why it's fascinating to me.

 

 

He is going to be particularly ornery now because his beloved Ducks suck this year.    That is until they still find a way to beat Washington next weekend.  

[Front Ranger]

Very infantile stimuli.

[BLI snowman]

There's five Niños, actually, with two warm-neutrals and three Niñas. Easily leans Niño, IMO.

 

The CPC analogs are going to change daily. Just really not worth micro-analyzing. 

[Deweydog]

I think nino should go the way of that other "n" word... Its use is simply not acceptable unless you're actually a little boy.

[snow_wizard]

The 00z GFS and its ensembles looks pretty typical for October, on the wetter end of things...Reading anymore into it than that is pretty infantile. 

 

Holy dude!  Did you wake up on the wrong side of the bed today or what?