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October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

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#51
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 October 2016 - 07:49 PM

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0.32" of rain today. Love fall. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#52
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 08:49 PM

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Looks like the 00z GFS is going to try and break down that "flat ridge" south of the Aleutians in the clown range. That'd be a step in the right direction.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#53
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2016 - 08:51 PM

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The first pic is how September ended at Three Creeks Lake in the Central Oregon Cascades. The 2nd pic is how October began.

 

14543619_602414815084_1762349237_n.jpg?o

14569708_602414805104_2003493419_n.jpg?o

 

Really weird how there is snow on one side of the lake, but not the other.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#54
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2016 - 08:53 PM

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OT, but check out this awesome photo of sprites associated with hurricane Matthew. Some researchers theorize this activity can predict storm evolution.

B5755E99-AFA6-411A-883C-7A239772DD80_zps

 

Amazing!


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#55
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 October 2016 - 08:54 PM

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Really weird how there is snow on one side of the lake, but not the other.

 

Yes. I think the wind was so strong it was blowing spray onto the beach on that side which either melted or kept the snow from sticking. Because up in my campsite there was a dusting on the ground. At one point last night my tent almost blew into the campfire...That would have been a disaster!

 

14569791_602414810094_699188166_n.jpg?oh


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#56
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2016 - 09:02 PM

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The 0z GFS looks a bit better.  The trough axis is a bit further east during week two which keeps the NW chillier and makes for higher pressure / heights over the Western GOA.


  • Jesse likes this
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#57
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 09:13 PM

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The 0z GFS looks a bit better. The trough axis is a bit further east during week two which keeps the NW chillier and makes for higher pressure / heights over the Western GOA.


Tries to break down the flat ridge over the Central NPAC, but can't finish it off. That thing has to go if ridging is to return over the GOA/EPO domain.

This pattern gives me the jitters because it can self-sustain to an amazing degree. It's probably the most difficult pattern to break.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#58
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 09:30 PM

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Lol @ the 00z GFS analogs..it's a Niño party.

500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#59
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2016 - 09:30 PM

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Tries to break down the flat ridge over the Central NPAC, but can't finish it off. That thing has to go if ridging is to return over the GOA/EPO domain.

This pattern gives me the jitters because it can self-sustain to an amazing degree. It's probably the most difficult pattern to break.

 

I guess the good news is it hasn't happened yet.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#60
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2016 - 09:32 PM

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Lol @ the 00z GFS analogs..it's a Niño party.

500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

 

The operational is certainly better than that.  Interestingly 1984 and 2003 both went on to have late October Arctic outbreaks here.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#61
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2016 - 09:33 PM

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So, are we heading for a Nino?

#62
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2016 - 09:34 PM

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Probably worth mentioning the sun has gone blank again.  There have already been numerous blank periods and we are still well away from solar min.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#63
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 09:35 PM

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The operational is certainly better than that. Interestingly 1984 and 2003 both went on to have late October Arctic outbreaks here.


Well, this is centered on d11, but spans +/- 2 weeks on either side. Definitely notable that 5/10 years were mod/strong Niños, while 7/10 were +ENSO.

1997-98, 1965-66, 1963-64, 1994-95, 1953-54, etc. Just funny.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#64
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2016 - 09:36 PM

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So, are we heading for a Nino?

 

No way, but for some reason the models are showing some aspects of the atmosphere going Ninoish.  I still wonder if what is being shown might fall through in spite of excellent model agreement on it.  I would feel much better seeing this a month from now.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#65
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 09:37 PM

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So, are we heading for a Nino?


No, just a peculiar intraseasonal regime upcoming, which is also evidence of the weak/unstable background state. I'm always interested when brand new/unusual developments arise..it's a great learning opportunity.

On Twitter, we've refer to the weirdness this year as "2016ing", haha. Was sort of inspired by the QBO craziness that started back in May.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#66
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2016 - 09:40 PM

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Well, this is centered on d11, but spans +/- 2 weeks on either side. Definitely notable that 5/10 years were mod/strong Niños, while 7/10 were +ENSO.

1997-98, 1965-66, 1963-64, 1994-95, 1953-54, etc. Just funny.

 

To further add to the strangeness we are supposed to be in a continued strong trade wind burst at least through the 8th.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#67
BLI snowman

Posted 01 October 2016 - 09:44 PM

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Lol @ the 00z GFS analogs..it's a Niño party.

500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

 

Four Ninos, three Ninas, and three neutral. Seems pretty equally weighted to me. 

 

A lot of those were pretty dramatically wet early fall periods for our region, though. Seems to be the theme. Otherwise the "Nino" signatures with the CPC anaogs is going to shift repeatedly.


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#68
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2016 - 09:44 PM

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September SOI was 13.82...the highest monthly reading since Dec 2011.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#69
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 09:45 PM

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To further add to the strangeness we are supposed to be in a continued strong trade wind burst at least through the 8th.


Yeah, notable bi-hemispheric AAM disparity. The bifurcated tropical forcing is trying to pull us into a +EPO/+PNA, while the polar/NAM state is resisting it.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#70
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 09:48 PM

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Four Ninos, three Ninas, and three neutral. Seems pretty equally weighted to me.

A lot of those were pretty dramatically wet early fall periods for our region, though. Seems to be the theme. Otherwise the "Nino" signatures with the CPC anaogs is going to shift repeatedly.


There's five Niños, actually, with two warm-neutrals and three Niñas. Easily leans Niño, IMO.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#71
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 09:55 PM

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Just to highlight the Niño-ish nature of the forecasted pattern, here is the aggregate of the aforementioned years:

7390CC9B-2E4A-4B38-95F5-250A6420FEE7_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#72
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:00 PM

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The 00z GFS and its ensembles looks pretty typical for October, on the wetter end of things...Reading anymore into it than that is pretty infantile. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#73
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:01 PM

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This is funny, because current SSTAs are almost perfectly opposite. This is a good illustration of the distinction between the systematic background state, and intraseasonal forcing/feedback.

The SSTAs don't constrain the atmosphere to a high frequency degree. They only constrain the lower frequency background tendencies.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#74
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:02 PM

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Kind of beating the Nino thing into the ground, Phil. Especially considering even you claim that you don't think we're going into one.

#75
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:06 PM

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The 00z GFS and its ensembles looks pretty typical for October, on the wetter end of things...Reading anymore into it than that is pretty infantile.


Kind of beating the Nino thing into the ground, Phil. Especially considering even you claim that you don't think we're going into one.


No one is "reading anymore into it". It's just a simple highlighting of emergent intraseasonal behaviors associated with typically inverse stimuli, hence why it's fascinating to me.

How/why these seemingly systematic behaviors emerge is one of the great mysteries of sub-seasonal meteorology.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#76
TT-SEA

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:07 PM

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No one is "reading anymore into it". It's just a simple highlighting of emergent intraseasonal behaviors associated with typically inverse stimuli, hence why it's fascinating to me.

 

 

He is going to be particularly ornery now because his beloved Ducks suck this year.    That is until they still find a way to beat Washington next weekend.   :)


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#77
Front Ranger

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:07 PM

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Very infantile stimuli.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#78
BLI snowman

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:08 PM

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There's five Niños, actually, with two warm-neutrals and three Niñas. Easily leans Niño, IMO.

 

The CPC analogs are going to change daily. Just really not worth micro-analyzing. 


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#79
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:09 PM

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I think nino should go the way of that other "n" word... Its use is simply not acceptable unless you're actually a little boy.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#80
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:09 PM

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The 00z GFS and its ensembles looks pretty typical for October, on the wetter end of things...Reading anymore into it than that is pretty infantile. 

 

Holy s**t dude!  Did you wake up on the wrong side of the bed today or what?


  • Phil likes this
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#81
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:10 PM

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He is going to be particularly ornery now because his beloved Ducks suck this year.    That is until they still find a way to beat Washington next weekend.   :)

 

Best analysis of the night!


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#82
BLI snowman

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:11 PM

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I think nino should go the way of that other "n" word... Its use is simply not acceptable unless you're actually a little boy.

 

Like with the other n word, if you put an "a" at the end it becomes kind of cool. 


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#83
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:11 PM

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I think nino should go the way of that other "n" word... Its use is simply not acceptable unless you're actually a little boy.


You sure seemed offended when people were calling certain aspects of last year's pattern Niña like. But objectivity isn't really your forte with this sort of thing. ;)

#84
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:11 PM

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The CPC analogs are going to change daily. Just really not worth micro-analyzing.


Of course they'll change, that wasn't the point I was making (or at least was trying to make). I guess this probably isn't the right thread to discuss it, though.

Oh, and just to clarify, in no way, shape, or form am I anticipating anything resembling a Niño this winter. :)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#85
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:12 PM

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Holy s**t dude!  Did you wake up on the wrong side of the bed today or what?

 

Don't worry I am now convinced we are headed towards a Nina. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#86
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:13 PM

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Don't worry I am now convinced we are headed towards a Nina.


What if the CFS flips tomorrow and shows a Niño?
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#87
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:13 PM

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Like with the other n word, if you put an "a" at the end it becomes kind of cool.


This was clever!

#88
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:13 PM

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Kind of beating the Nino thing into the ground, Phil. Especially considering even you claim that you don't think we're going into one.

 

I sort of understand what he's getting at.  If we go into the pattern the analog composite is showing I won't be thrilled about it.  If we have a cold / GOA ridge dominated October I would welcome the pattern being advertised with open arms in November.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#89
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:14 PM

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Like with the other n word, if you put an "a" at the end it becomes kind of cool.


Lol
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#90
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:16 PM

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Those analog composite maps are absolutely worthless. And people cherry pick those things to death. 


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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#91
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:17 PM

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I am going to be honest. This is my most insightful commentary in months, maybe years. Take heed. 


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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#92
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:17 PM

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I sort of understand what he's getting at. If we go into the pattern the analog composite is showing I won't be thrilled about it. If we have a cold / GOA ridge dominated October I would welcome the pattern being advertised with open arms in November.


I'm not even looking into it like that. I don't think it matters in relation to winter, given it's probably an emergent intraseasonal-scale excursion, similar to the one that occurred for a few weeks in August.

It's just fascinating to me from a scientific standpoint, as these emergent behaviors are something I've been trying (and failing) to figure out for years.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#93
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:21 PM

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I am going to be honest. This is my most insightful commentary in months, maybe years. Take heed.


Your commentary is as worthless as the CFS. :)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#94
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:22 PM

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You sure seemed offended when people were calling certain aspects of last year's pattern Niña like. But objectivity isn't really your forte with this sort of thing. ;)


No, I think it's kinda pointless to fret about it either way on 10-1, although in defense of last year we actually did have one of the bad "n" words.

Settle down. He can't make it nino all the way from Maryland.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#95
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:22 PM

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The 0z GFS ensemble is pretty bad.  Not what I want to see this month.  I'm not saying winter is doomed if it verifies, but our chances will be lower of a great winter IMO.  I'll explain further later.


Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#96
Phil

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:25 PM

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Settle down. He can't make it nino all the way from Maryland.


Lol. I'm honestly tired of Niños. They're boring and predictable for the most part. Hence why I was rooting on the Niña all summer long. ;)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#97
TT-SEA

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:25 PM

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The 0z GFS ensemble is pretty bad.  Not what I want to see this month.  I'm not saying winter is doomed if it verifies, but our chances will be lower of a great winter IMO.  I'll explain further later.

 

 

We will be waiting for the rationalizat.... errr I mean explanation as soon as you have it ready!   

 

You are just convincing yourself.   Nobody else is worried... or not worried.     Or whatever.



#98
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:27 PM

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No, I think it's kinda pointless to fret about it either way on 10-1, although in defense of last year we actually did have one of the bad "n" words.

Settle down. He can't make it nino all the way from Maryland.

 

Settle down Matt.



#99
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:28 PM

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Seriously the stupidity on here is out of control. Judging winter on the 00z ensemble. Give me a break. Of course our winter will suck. It has for the past 30 years!


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#100
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 October 2016 - 10:28 PM

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Your commentary is as worthless as the CFS. :)

 

At least I didn't lie to the forum for 8 years ;)

 

Or feud with WxStatman, one of the few worthwhile posters on here...


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"