October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He is going to be particularly ornery now because his beloved Ducks suck this year.    That is until they still find a way to beat Washington next weekend.  

 

Best analysis of the night!

[BLI snowman]

I think nino should go the way of that other "n" word... Its use is simply not acceptable unless you're actually a little boy.

 

Like with the other n word, if you put an "a" at the end it becomes kind of cool. 

[Jesse]

I think nino should go the way of that other "n" word... Its use is simply not acceptable unless you're actually a little boy.

You sure seemed offended when people were calling certain aspects of last year's pattern Niña like. But objectivity isn't really your forte with this sort of thing.

[Phil]

The CPC analogs are going to change daily. Just really not worth micro-analyzing.

Of course they'll change, that wasn't the point I was making (or at least was trying to make). I guess this probably isn't the right thread to discuss it, though.

 

Oh, and just to clarify, in no way, shape, or form am I anticipating anything resembling a Niño this winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Holy s**t dude!  Did you wake up on the wrong side of the bed today or what?

 

Don't worry I am now convinced we are headed towards a Nina. 

[Phil]

Don't worry I am now convinced we are headed towards a Nina.

What if the CFS flips tomorrow and shows a Niño?

[Jesse]

Like with the other n word, if you put an "a" at the end it becomes kind of cool.

This was clever!

[snow_wizard]

Kind of beating the Nino thing into the ground, Phil. Especially considering even you claim that you don't think we're going into one.

 

I sort of understand what he's getting at.  If we go into the pattern the analog composite is showing I won't be thrilled about it.  If we have a cold / GOA ridge dominated October I would welcome the pattern being advertised with open arms in November.

[Phil]

Like with the other n word, if you put an "a" at the end it becomes kind of cool.

Lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Those analog composite maps are absolutely worthless. And people cherry pick those things to death. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am going to be honest. This is my most insightful commentary in months, maybe years. Take heed. 

[Phil]

I sort of understand what he's getting at. If we go into the pattern the analog composite is showing I won't be thrilled about it. If we have a cold / GOA ridge dominated October I would welcome the pattern being advertised with open arms in November.

I'm not even looking into it like that. I don't think it matters in relation to winter, given it's probably an emergent intraseasonal-scale excursion, similar to the one that occurred for a few weeks in August.

 

It's just fascinating to me from a scientific standpoint, as these emergent behaviors are something I've been trying (and failing) to figure out for years.

[Phil]

I am going to be honest. This is my most insightful commentary in months, maybe years. Take heed.

Your commentary is as worthless as the CFS.

[Deweydog]

You sure seemed offended when people were calling certain aspects of last year's pattern Niña like. But objectivity isn't really your forte with this sort of thing.

No, I think it's kinda pointless to fret about it either way on 10-1, although in defense of last year we actually did have one of the bad "n" words.

 

Settle down. He can't make it nino all the way from Maryland.

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS ensemble is pretty bad.  Not what I want to see this month.  I'm not saying winter is doomed if it verifies, but our chances will be lower of a great winter IMO.  I'll explain further later.

[Phil]

Settle down. He can't make it nino all the way from Maryland.

Lol. I'm honestly tired of Niños. They're boring and predictable for the most part. Hence why I was rooting on the Niña all summer long.

[TT-SEA]

The 0z GFS ensemble is pretty bad.  Not what I want to see this month.  I'm not saying winter is doomed if it verifies, but our chances will be lower of a great winter IMO.  I'll explain further later.

 

 

We will be waiting for the rationalizat.... errr I mean explanation as soon as you have it ready!   

 

You are just convincing yourself.   Nobody else is worried... or not worried.     Or whatever.

[Jesse]

No, I think it's kinda pointless to fret about it either way on 10-1, although in defense of last year we actually did have one of the bad "n" words.

 

Settle down. He can't make it nino all the way from Maryland.

 

Settle down Matt.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seriously the stupidity on here is out of control. Judging winter on the 00z ensemble. Give me a break. Of course our winter will suck. It has for the past 30 years!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Your commentary is as worthless as the CFS.

 

At least I didn't lie to the forum for 8 years

 

Or feud with WxStatman, one of the few worthwhile posters on here...

[Jesse]

Seriously the stupidity on here is out of control. Judging winter on the 00z ensemble. Give me a break. Of course our winter will suck. It has for the past 30 years!

 

Some post camping trip drinks this evening?

[snow_wizard]

Seriously the stupidity on here is out of control. Judging winter on the 00z ensemble. Give me a break. Of course our winter will suck. It has for the past 30 years!

 

You're up to something.  I just can't figure out what.

[Phil]

Seriously the stupidity on here is out of control. Judging winter on the 00z ensemble. Give me a break. Of course our winter will suck. It has for the past 30 years!

Maybe consider taking a Valium?

[snow_wizard]

Some post camping trip drinks this evening?

 

Maybe a hangover?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You're up to something.  I just can't figure out what.

 

 

Seriously. This October is going to be quite a bit different than the past two and for that we should be grateful. 

[Jesse]

Seriously. This October is going to be quite a bit different than the past two and for that we should be grateful. 

 

I'll drink (with you) to that!

 

The last two Octobers here were nightmares. I think the only people here who liked them were Matt and Tim.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe a hangover?

 

Last night was a pretty inspiring prelude to winter. Ripping winds and snow by morning at 6500'! The wind was so strong there was almost no warmth to gain from the campfire!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'll drink (with you) to that!

 

[snow_wizard]

Seriously. This October is going to be quite a bit different than the past two and for that we should be grateful. 

 

No doubt on that.  I'm still terribly disappointed we could be looking at a stupid Aleutian / GOA trough again.

[Phil]

Maybe a hangover?

He's emotionally-dependent on the CFS, which runs four times per day. Enough said.

[Phil]

At least I didn't lie to the forum for 8 years

 

Or feud with WxStatman, one of the few worthwhile posters on here...

I haven't been a member for 8 years, and that was years ago.

 

You have the IQ of a chipmunk.

[Jesse]

The 00z isn't really THAT bad. At least not a total torch the first 10 days of the month like the 2014 and 2015. Lows look mildish.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I haven't been a member for 8 years, and that was years ago.

 

You have the IQ of a chipmunk.

 

Right lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 00z isn't really THAT bad. At least not a total torch the first 10 days of the month like the 2014 and 2015. Lows look mildish.

 

Yeah definitely a weenie meltdown going on. Which I guess is understandable after the last couple of years. But your analysis is unusually level headed and accurate.

[Phil]

Yeah definitely a weenie meltdown going on. Which I guess is understandable after the last couple of years. But your analysis is unusually level headed and accurate.

You're the only one having a meltdown.

 

I don't see weenie meltdowns from anyone else but you.

[Jesse]

Yeah definitely a weenie meltdown going on. Which I guess is understandable after the last couple of years. But your analysis is unusually level headed and accurate.

 

I'm hit or miss. But I try. 

[Jesse]

 

Hey, did you go to Oktoberfest this year? We went walking around the Mount Angel Abbey our second evening down there, before the festivities. It was very serene and pretty. I was thinking about the fact that you used to work there. What an interesting place that must have been.

[Deweydog]

I'll drink (with you) to that!

 

The last two Octobers here were nightmares. I think the only people here who liked them were Matt and Tim.

That whole diversity thing really got to you, didn't it?

 

Octobers come in all kinds of delightful shapes, sizes and colors.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hey, did you go to Oktoberfest this year? We went walking around the Mount Angel Abbey our second evening down there, before the festivities. It was very serene and pretty. I was thinking about the fact that you used to work there. What an interesting place that must have been.

 

It was great working there. I loved the early mornings on clear days with views of Hood, Adams, St. Helens, and sometimes Rainier. It was certainly interesting and almost like traveling back in time. 

 

I hit up O-fest for about an hour on Saturday night this year. Just was busy with other things and did not give it its full appreciation this year. 

[Jesse]

That whole diversity thing really got to you, didn't it?

 

Octobers come in all kinds of delightful shapes, sizes and colors.

 

All Octobers are created equal. Except for the bad ones that are cool and rainy and yucky and not conducive to outdoor tee ball or whatever.