October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Euro continues to be much cooler than the GFS and Canadian for the late week period.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Funny thing how Pac NW people are so accustomed to overcast, cool, and damp weather that's it's what they're longing for all summer long. Otherwise things are not the way they're supposed to be. Could not imagine how miserable some people would be in a place like Hawaii, which many people consider to be paradise.

 

Also I would think 80 degrees is hot to someone from a cold climate, while it is very pleasant to someone from a warm climate. Probably in San Francisco, 80 feels like 100 degrees would feel to a person from L.A.

[Jesse]

Funny thing how Pac NW people are so accustomed to overcast, cool, and damp weather that's it's what they're longing for all summer long. Otherwise things are not the way they're supposed to be. Could not imagine how miserable some people would be in a place like Hawaii, which many people consider to be paradise.

 

Also I would think 80 degrees is hot to someone from a cold climate, while it is very pleasant to someone from a warm climate. Probably in San Francisco, 80 feels like 100 degrees would feel to a person from L.A.

 

You just served Tim brunch.

[snow_wizard]

Euro continues to be much cooler than the GFS and Canadian for the late week period.

 

Yeah....not too shabby at all.  I like the way things play out early in a week 2 a bit more also.  Looks more Ninaish.

[snow_wizard]

Light NW winds and crisp today.  It's always nice when the S to SW winds like we had yesterday get cutt off.  Looks like the table is being set for some decently below normal temps over the next couple of days.

[Timmy Supercell]

Funny thing how Pac NW people are so accustomed to overcast, cool, and damp weather that's it's what they're longing for all summer long.

 

More like the 20% of the Pac NW west of the cascades. I have a legit reason to long for rain. Rather than having 9 months of rain/clouds, I have 9 months of sun/dry equivalent. And most rainfall is from thunderstorms. Most precip is snow.

[TT-SEA]

Perfect October day... sunny all day here and totally calm.  

[Phil]

I wonder if that could be the reason the GOA positive anomaly has been shifted so poleward this season.

Good point. The flat ridge south of the Aleutians is actually a reflection of the descending (sinking) branch of the Pacific Hadley Cell. It's unusually broad/poleward right now, even by modern standards. Blah.

 

Need to get that wave-1 tropical-convective signal back, which'll tilt the longitudinal IO/PAC Hadley Cell gradient, ousting the zonal Pacific Jet.

[Deweydog]

First sub-60 of the new fall season???

[Weather101]

When it's going to snow?

[Deweydog]

When it's going to snow?

People will be happy, sad if it doesn't.

[Timmy Supercell]

When it's going to snow?

 

When you drive to the mountains.

[MossMan]

Nice and dry at Long Beach today! Also calm winds so no sand in the face!

[Deweydog]

Nice and dry at Long Beach today! Also calm winds so no sand in the face!

Good poochies!

 

It's sad I have to pray for their deaths due to your liking of warm weather. Awkward and sad.

[snow_wizard]

First sub-60 of the new fall season???

 

PDX may well do it.  Only 58 for a high as of 3pm.

[Weather101]

Seahawks and Cowboys will meet in the playoffs.

[Trainwreck]

Seahawks and Cowboys will meet in the playoffs.

No way. It'll be Hawks and Minnesota again with Seattle winning and then playing an eventual rematch I the sb against the Pats.

[Anti Marine Layer]

PDX may well do it.  Only 58 for a high as of 3pm.

 

Too bad. It shows that they reached 61.

[Deweydog]

PDX:

 

F--

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like PDX hit 60. Salem only made it to 57.

[TT-SEA]

Perfect weather for Salmon Days in Issaquah...

 

 

[Deweydog]

63 at Olympia?

 

Are you ******* kidding me???

[snow_wizard]

Looks like SEA is running -0.5 after two days this month.  Probably the first time October has been below normal for the month to date since 2013.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

53/43 so far today. 

[TT-SEA]

53/45 so far today. 

 

 

I hope we have this all winter... systems diving into Oregon and Northern CA.   Often makes for great weather up here at any time of the year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I hope we have this all winter... systems diving into Oregon and Northern CA.   Often makes for great weather up at any time of the year.

 

Would give you guys some chilly clear days in the winter. 

[snow_wizard]

Would give you guys some chilly clear days in the winter. 

 

Probably Arctic at times.

[TT-SEA]

Probably Arctic at times.

 

 

And many times it just gives us 40s and sunshine with some offshore flow.     Still very nice.    Particularly out here in the foothills.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably Arctic at times.

 

Maybe, today seems like a 36/30 type day at my location in December/January. 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty interesting to note the forecast track for typhoon Chaba has shifted west considerably from 24 hours ago.  That could have implications for how it might effect the patterns over the North Central and NE Pacific a bit down the road.

[Jesse]

First sub-60 of the new fall season???

So close. Something tells me there will be a murky warm frontal type of day at some point in the work week that will do it.

[Front Ranger]

63 at Olympia?

 

Are you ******* kidding me???

 

It's ok. They nabbed their first sub-60 way back on 9/23.

[Front Ranger]

Perfect weather for Salmon Days in Issaquah...

 

 

 

I feel like you posted almost identical photos of this event last year. These pictures look eerily familiar.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE officially hit 58 today, a -13 departure. However, nowhere close to the high of 49 they experienced on this date in 1949. 

[Jesse]

It's ok. They nabbed their first sub-60 way back on 9/23.

#troll fail.

[Jesse]

SLE officially hit 58 today, a -13 departure. However, nowhere close to the high of 49 they experienced on this date in 1949.

Maybe that means that our January 1950 repeat will only be 9 degrees warmer overall.

 

For those keeping track at home, that's still quite chilly!

[TT-SEA]

I feel like you posted almost identical photos of this event last year. These pictures look eerily familiar.

 

 

Yeah... looked it up.   Here is last year's picture.   No clouds at all that day.   Today we definitely had some clouds around all day.   

 

[Front Ranger]

Yeah... looked it up.   Here is last year's picture.   No clouds at all that day.   Today we definitely had some clouds around all day.   

 

 

My photogenic memory strikes again.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty big changes on the 0z in the 10 to 15 day period with the block showing up over the Bering Stait and Western Alaska.  Looking better than earlier runs.

[snow_wizard]

SLE officially hit 58 today, a -13 departure. However, nowhere close to the high of 49 they experienced on this date in 1949. 

 

Pretty insane they managed 49 a couple of weeks before the Arctic outbreak that hit that year.  1949 was a pretty special year.