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October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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More and more. It's a feeling that's been pretty sustaining. We'll see...

 

 

I was just thinking the same thing this morning as I slogged through the rain to my daughter's school.    All this rain makes it feel like a 2006 or 2010 late November event is on the horizon.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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If current model trends are any indication, then our region will be just grossly overdue for some clearer and drier weather by mid November i.e. some more amplified patterns overhead.

Black Friday will become more befitting its name this year as it will officially mark the death of January 2017.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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As of 4 p.m. SEA is just .46 from breaking their all-time record for rain in October.

 

2003 - 8.96

2016 - 8.50

 

And the heavy rain plume appears to be bowing back into Seattle.   

 

Might just do it today.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah, I know you guys got screwed with the "main event" that month. I remember!

I also got screwed in 2004.  I was in California for the holidays and I-5 was shut down for a couple of days so I couldn't drive home.  By the time I finally got back, there was only about 3 inches of slush left.  Arguably the best two events since 92-93 and I barely got any of the goods.  Such is life here in the PNW.

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The freezing fog mid-month will just be explosive.

 

I think we may avoid it this year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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His winter outlook:

 

AER-winter-forecast-2016-17.png

Well, that's AER's preliminary outlook, which often changes as it's based on their own parameters and modeling (like snowcover advance, stratospheric dynamics, modeled effects of said radiation fluxes, etc).

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Uuugly day today!

 

Looking like we have a really good shot at the wettest October ever recorded in the NW.  That includes the records I have dating back to 1850.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Personally I'd put the brunt of the cold anomalies over the Northern/Central Plains and Midwest this winter, with warmer anomalies from AZ/NM into the Gulf Coast states.

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Well, that's AER's preliminary outlook, which often changes as it's based on their own parameters and modeling (like snowcover advance, stratospheric dynamics, modeled effects of said radiation fluxes, etc).

 

I'm guess the creator of this forecast lives in the Eastern US?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It is really interesting how all of the Eastern mets are coming up with these fantastically cold forecasts for the East while the CPC has nothing of the kind.  I seriously wonder what it would take for them to go for a cold West.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm guess the creator of this forecast lives in the Eastern US?

I'm not sure where he lives, but he's not your typical JB weenie wishcaster. He's actually a PhD scientist with a fairly solid track record.

 

My guess is AER's final winter outlook will bump the coldest anomalies into the central states.

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I'm not sure where he lives, but he's not your typical JB weenie wishcaster. He's actually a PhD scientist with a fairly solid track record.

 

My guess is AER's final winter outlook will bump the coldest anomalies into the central states.

 

That would be the right move IMO.  I seriously can't imagine us not seeing at least one really cold month this time around in spite of October not quite being optimal. 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It is really interesting how all of the Eastern mets are coming up with these fantastically cold forecasts for the East while the CPC has nothing of the kind. I seriously wonder what it would take for them to go for a cold West.

You moving to the east coast would probably get the job done.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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It is really interesting how all of the Eastern mets are coming up with these fantastically cold forecasts for the East while the CPC has nothing of the kind. I seriously wonder what it would take for them to go for a cold West.

I mostly agree.

 

While a cold eastern winter wouldn't shock me, I definitely wouldn't forecast something like that right now. Given the extremely weak background forcing state, this will probably be a winter full of pattern variability and intraseasonal interference, so I don't think it's possible to be confident in a final outcome. There will be multiple Niño-like periods, and multiple Niña-like periods, in my opinion. I've already got cold feet.

 

Also, FWIW, I've never seen the CPC forecast anything except "equal chances" in the NE. Sometimes it just takes a few weeks of frigid weather to tip the scales in the midst of an otherwise uneventful winter.

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Holy hell that's a monster at 240 on the Euro.

 

Might be worth renting a schooner to head out and do some storm watching.  

Dude where is the EURO link at? 

 

 

Edit: NVM...http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/mean-sea-level-pressure-wind-speed-850-hpa-and-geopotential-500-hpa

 

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2016-10-26 at 6.12.05 PM.png

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Quite interesting that in spite of the pattern looking so horrible in early November almost of the analogs are from seasons that delivered serious cold.  1983 and 1953 really showing up big right now.  A hybrid of those two would be really nice.  1953-54 is a winter that doesn't get the recognition it deserves.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Quite interesting that in spite of the pattern looking so horrible in early November almost of the analogs are from seasons that delivered serious cold.  1983 and 1953 really showing up big right now.  A hybrid of those two would be really nice.  1953-54 is a winter that doesn't get the recognition it deserves.

 

 

A week of cold weather in January?    

 

That is all that happened that winter.     

 

And what if the hybrid blended the warmest parts of both winters?    :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looking at years that had an extremely wet Oct - Nov combo the stats are pretty eye popping for what came after as far as cold waves.  Out of the 10 wettest years 9 had at least one significant Arctic event that winter, and several were top tier.

 

1909

1910

1932

1955

1975

1990

1995

2003

2006

2009

 

1853 deserves honorable mention since it was the wettest Oct - Nov combo in the 1850 to 1900 period.  In fact probably the wettest in the period of record.  Of course that winter featured a maga blast in January.  10 for 11...

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

Looking at years that had an extremely wet Oct - Nov combo the stats are pretty eye popping for what came after as far as cold waves.  Out of the 10 wettest years 9 had at least one significant Arctic event that winter, and several were top tier.

 

1909

1910

1932

1955

1975

1990

1995

2003

2006

2009

 

1853 deserves honorable mention since it was the wettest Oct - Nov combo in the 1850 to 1900 period.  In fact probably the wettest in the period of record.  Of course that winter featured a maga blast in January.  10 for 11...

This may come across as sarcastic or smarta**-ish, but what will it mean if this winter sucks? Even if the analogs point to the opposite? I'm being serious with this question. 

 

 

Because, trust me, I want this winter to really pound the hell out of the west side of WA state. I have had egg on my face several times the last few winters from telling my friends and family "watch out" this winter. Oddly enough, this fall I haven't said a word hardly at all to anyone. Bet this is the year where they come crying asking why I didn't say anything. 

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This may come across as sarcastic or smarta**-ish, but what will it mean if this winter sucks? Even if the analogs point to the opposite? I'm being serious with this question. 

 

 

 

I believe the answer is that it will mean this winter sucked.      What else can you say if the winter sucks?    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This may come across as sarcastic or smarta**-ish, but what will it mean if this winter sucks? Even if the analogs point to the opposite? I'm being serious with this question. 

 

 

Because, trust me, I want this winter to really pound the hell out of the west side of WA state. I have had egg on my face several times the last few winters from telling my friends and family "watch out" this winter. Oddly enough, this fall I haven't said a word hardly at all to anyone. Bet this is the year where they come crying asking why I didn't say anything. 

 

It could happen, but the odds are in our favor.  Even our state climatologist (who is extremely knowledgeable) said he would be quite surprised if we don't have a cold and snow event this winter.  Where you live almost every winter is good anyway.

 

My guess is we get one really good month over here and then another month that has a short period of goodies.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Dumb. January 1954 was easily one of the better snowfall months of the 20th century for WA state.

 

Only the third snowiest January on record for SEA and about half the month was cold.  He can sure downplay things!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks nothing like an El Nino pattern.

 

That forecast still defies Nina climo though.  I'm especially surprised the forecast is going cold in the SE.  Serious balls to do that given the very apparent SE ridge the past several months.  The CPC forecast makes much more sense.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It could happen, but the odds are in our favor.  Even our state climatologist (who is extremely knowledgeable) said he would be quite surprised if we don't have a cold and snow event this winter.  Where you live almost every winter is good anyway.

 

My guess is we get one really good month over here and then another month that has a short period of goodies.

Yes, I know where I live is good all the time weather wise. I have been extremely fortunate to be able to make my own conditions in terms of weather preference. REAL seasons here....nice winters and Hot dry summers, just what the doctor ordered. On the other hand, I do still have plenty of friends and family that live in the greater Puget Sound area that would enjoy a decent winter every 10 years or so.... 

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