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Hurricane Matthew

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#1
TT-SEA

Posted 04 October 2016 - 12:04 PM

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12Z ECMWF shows Matthew getting right up to SE GA on Saturday morning before turning back around and weakening over the weekend east of Florida.  

 

Strange path.   



#2
Chris

Posted 05 October 2016 - 07:17 AM

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Models are all over the place on this one.



#3
Chris

Posted 05 October 2016 - 07:25 AM

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I copied these over from the PNW October topic.

 

 

Looks like it's already weakened by the time it gets to GA, having hit the east coast of Florida.

 

 

On the 12Z ECMWF it literally skirts the entire east coast of Florida and then follows the SE GA and SC coastline without weakening too much... then turns away and heads to the SE and out to sea.

 

An absolute worst case scenario track as far as damage area and number of people directly affected.

 

 

No kidding.  It hits the same spot in Florida twice.

 

ecmwf_uv850_vort_seus_fh0_216_2.gif

 

 

90% chance someone turns that into a conspiracy theory... :P

 

 

Unusual, but such crazy tracks have happened before.

 

Regardless, looks like anywhere from FL to NC could be under the gun. Really surprised to hear this was the first major hurricane to strike Haiti in 50 years.

 

 

This article has a bunch of examples of meandering, looping hurricanes: https://weather.com/...-paths-20130807

 

 

Lol GFS w/ Matthew. Makes landfall as a major, loops back out, then tries to make another landfall as a major in the same region.

 

 

Amazingly some hurricanes in the past have had tracks like that.  I imagine some people in Florida and the Bahamas are feeling a bit queasy after seeing that run.

 

 

00z Euro also shows a Matthew loop. Getting weird.

 

 

At least it does not show the second landfall... and in fact curves away from the coast sooner which would be good news for GA and SC.



#4
happ

Posted 05 October 2016 - 02:30 PM

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Forecast looks grim for Florida!



#5
Andie

Posted 05 October 2016 - 05:13 PM

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Maybe this is the REAL October surprise !

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#6
iFred

Posted 05 October 2016 - 07:22 PM

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The Gulf return has some interesting possibilities, given that the water has recovered since Hermine, and the next trough pass could pull it up the coast.



#7
Chris

Posted 06 October 2016 - 07:17 AM

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Euro still has it doing a little loop.

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watl_fh0_216.gif



#8
Andie

Posted 06 October 2016 - 01:13 PM

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So, they don't believe this thing will enter the GOM ?

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#9
Chris

Posted 06 October 2016 - 02:08 PM

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Nice. Juno Beach cam is a good one too: http://www.beachcams...h-pier-surf-cam

Jacksonville is the one I'm watching since it's a good proxy for Saint Simons GA:

http://www.jaxpiercam.com

There's some other ones on Surfline.com that provide live wave heights and wind speeds + local forecasts:

http://www.surfline....florida_125267/

 

 

Sunny Isle Beach cam should be a good one to watch for a little while:

 

http://www.miamiandb...e-miami#webcams

 

 

12Z ECMWF track is the worst possible solution for the coastline between Jacksonville and Charleston.  

 

 

Here are some live streaming hurricane Matthew beachside cameras. Will get very interesting at many of these locations:

http://www.mybeachca...rida/northeast/



#10
Chris

Posted 06 October 2016 - 02:14 PM

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So, they don't believe this thing will enter the GOM ?

 

I'm told the Euro is king at predicting these hurricane paths.  It's been varying a lot but hasn't had it going into the Gulf for a few runs.

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watl_fh0_240.gif