November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow maniac]

The Weatherbell maps look better than that and they give amore detailed view. I wasn't lying.

Still just a dusting for 90 % if that

[Timmy Supercell]

The wind made a mess of things, I had to pick up trash scattered through my yard from a neighbor's garbage bin that tipped over in the wind last night. And I hadn't pulled out my bin until now because it was so windy (mine would most likely have ended up going down the hill). Come to find out the sidewalks and roads this morning are slippery so it was kind of a tough battle taking my bin down the steps. 

 

Oh yeah forgot to post sometime last night it was super windy. Comparable to a few of the wind events I had in October that were likely 60+ mph events. Lights were flickering when I was washing dishes about 10:30pm ish. Also again past midnight with some equally high gusts.

[stuffradio]

6Z is pretty cold next week.

[catnip]

6Z is pretty cold next week.

 

Indeed, gets us cold this weekend.

[GobBluth]

12z is splitting off that Kona low a little better, could improve chances for full retrogression.

 

Nevermind, the storm in the Bering Sea is going to crash the ridge.

[Timmy]

12z GFS at hr 180 compared to 6z: I like the look of the block better. A little more offshore, a little more held together, no L/trough on the upperside hindering amplification. 850s also a bit colder in BC.

gaining back a little ground. It's most like yesterday's 18z at that time

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would say the 12z is a step in the right direction. 

[ShawniganLake]

Indeed, gets us cold this weekend.

12Z is colder Monday and Tuesday. 850s likely dipping below -10C this run. Light snow possilities as well.

[catnip]

12Z is colder Monday and Tuesday. 850s likely dipping below -10C this run. Light snow possilities as well.

 

Only 7 days out! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some nice overrunning for our BC friends!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_39.png

[MossMan]

Wow. 12z GFS much better than 6z when it comes to 850s at hr 210. Big step towards colder solutions. I think DJ was right - I would expect 00z runs tonight to be back to where we were a couple days ago.

 

12z:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112812/gfs_T850_nwus_36.png

 

 

 

6z:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112806/gfs_T850_nwus_37.png

Wow big difference, thanks for posting the images! No warm fingers tickling the southern folks on the 12z!

[FroYoBro]

This certainly has the feel of a classic early season northern event coming up. 

[snow maniac]

Frosty windshields this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a nice little 3 day cool snap...

[GobBluth]

Looks like a 1000 ft snow level onshore flow event for Washington and Oregon. 

[bainbridgekid]

12z is quite a bit better.

 

Sturdier block, more cold air, and at face value looks snowy for pretty much all of Western Washington on Monday and Tuesday at face value.

[Jesse]

This NW flow pattern has been a nice change. Some decent mountain snows starting to build up.

 

Still tracking frost potential for later in the week. Thursday night could be the best bet down here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM looks improved...

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like a 1000 ft snow level onshore flow event for Washington and Oregon. 

With -8 and -10 850mb temps in WA snow levels would be lower than that for at least 24 to 36 hours. Nothing major but this is a decent chance for a little "wet and sloppy" lowland snow up here. There is also a couple lows pressure systems that slide down in the perfect placement for snow too.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Both the GFS and GEM are very good for snow starting at my location Sunday night. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting to see if the ensembles improve. The 06z ensemble was a bit improved, but not very many members below -6C for PDX, The warm outliers were gone though...

[chopper 918]

Things will be better by Thursday. Models are struggling with the upcoming pattern change.

[MossMan]

Still drowning up here!! 39 degrees!

[ShawniganLake]

Still drowning up here!! 39 degrees!

I almost didn't believe you until I checked the radar.  Clear skies and 30F here overnight.  Roads were very icy after yesterdays rain. 

[Sometimesdylan]

39 outside here.. rain showers..

 

Looks cold next week...

[Deweydog]

Wew lad - I encourage anyone that feels uplifted by improvements to believable range to just not look at the end of the 12z run because clown range gets ugly with GOA energy.

It's a reload!!!

[Farmboy]

Did models swing this wildly ahead of the December 2008 event?

[MossMan]

Where is DJ? Doesn't he know that he's not allowed to sleep or work during these times!!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Did models swing this wildly ahead of the December 2008 event?

yes

[Prairiedog]

If I remember though, in 2008 it was one of those amazing events where all the models locked on and pretty much held their ground from 10 days out to when the snow started to fly.  There may have been a little flipping but if I remember right it was one of the rare times I've seen model consistency almost from the get go.  Correct me if I'm wrong, it's what I remember but then at my age, memory is the second thing to go. 

[Deweydog]

yes

No.

 

Although this hasn't been remarkable from a model chaos perspective. Just noise in the long, long range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Did models swing this wildly ahead of the December 2008 event?

 

Multiple heart attacks. They started showing stuff in late November, took it away for about a day, brought it back, etc...The event still turned out much differently than the models showed even leading into it. It initially looked like an initial blast (The one on the 14th) that would have highs in the 20s lows in the teens for several days followed by a reload. The initial blast did not last as long and the reload never really got this far south. For PDX it ended up warmer and snowier than it looked at first. PDX never got below 20.

[HighlandExperience]

Warning shot.

[Timmy]

Did models swing this wildly ahead of the December 2008 event?

They may have gone cold to warm and back, but I don't think they flattened the ridge or took it away like this. There aren't any cold ensembles left for early next week. The "event" we were tracking is pretty set now for that timeframe. Probably 1000' snow levels. Whether or not something sets up after that time, who knows, but it isn't looking great.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No.

 

Although this hasn't been remarkable from a model chaos perspective. Just noise in the long, long range.

 

Aside from a couple outlier GFS runs this has never shown legitimate potential to be more than just a nice cold snap. I don't feel there has been widespread support for an arctic outbreak at all...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

They may have gone cold to warm and back, but I don't think they flattened the ridge or took it away like this. There aren't any cold ensembles left for early next week. The "event" we were tracking is pretty set now for that timeframe. Probably 1000' snow levels. Whether or not something sets up after that time, who knows, but it isn't looking great.

 

Phil and Jim say after Christmas...

[HighlandExperience]

Aside from a couple outlier GFS runs this has never shown legitimate potential to be more than just a nice cold snap. I don't feel there has been widespread support for an arctic outbreak at all...

Perhaps not, but there is a good chance for quick hitting snow for lowlands of BC and Western Wa

[BLI snowman]

I'm getting a strong December 1980 vibe from this. Let's hope the rest of the winter is better than that one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SIGNIFICANT ensemble improvement. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like a nice little 3 day cool snap...

Exactly what I want to see. Very much like the 1949, 1956, and 1968 warning shots in early to mid December. I hope this about where we end up.