November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Exactly what I want to see. Very much like the 1949, 1956, and 1968 warning shots in early to mid December. I hope this about where we end up.

 

I'll throw in 1992 and 94' too. 

[Timmy]

SIGNIFICANT ensemble improvement.

pics or it didn't happen

[snow_wizard]

I'm getting a strong December 1980 vibe from this. Let's hope the rest of the winter is better than that one.

We shall not mention that winter on this forum!

 

This certainly looks better than 1980 for areas south of Bellingham though.

[snow_wizard]

I'll throw in 1992 and 94' too.

Yeah...1994 kind of qualifies although that was a Nino. A really odd Nino though.

 

I'll take a better look at 1992 sometime today with some of my indices.

[Jesse]

I'm getting a strong December 1980 vibe from this. Let's hope the rest of the winter is better than that one.

Was there a similar pattern the beginning of that month?

[snow_wizard]

Just about to post the same. Much, much better.

 

A mean of -8 is pretty nice. Always cold enough for snow...

[snow_wizard]

Was there a similar pattern the beginning of that month?

1980 had a very similar ENSO / N PAC height anomaly profile July - Oct. The context was wrong though. I've always considered coming off of a super Nino to be a plus for this winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah...1994 kind of qualifies although that was a Nino. A really odd Nino though.

 

94-95 was a weird winter. Cool November, nice cold snap in early December, around New Years, and great late arctic blast in February. And tons of incredible torching for the rest of it...

[BLI snowman]

We shall not mention that winter on this forum!

 

This certainly looks better than 1980 for areas south of Bellingham though.

 

Seattle had some snow and a subfreezing day in 1980, it was still a solid event north of Olympia. The timing and progression of the pattern are very similar looking, and amplification also looks to be a big problem with this.

[BLI snowman]

Was there a similar pattern the beginning of that month?

 

You can judge for yourself, I guess.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1980.html

[stuffradio]

1990 had a foot of snow in Vancouver BC around NYE.

[Kayla]

12z GFS ensemble is the best yet. -6 to -7c mean for PDX. GFS shows 1-2" of snowfall for PDX Mon-Tue. 

 

It's not all bad news boys!

[Kayla]

NWS just updated their current observation pages

 

They look funky and back to hourly observations it would appear.

[snow_wizard]

The GEM brings some chilly continental air into the area. Surface gradients become northerly.

[bainbridgekid]

The GEM brings some chilly continental air into the area. Surface gradients become northerly.

It also bring's Sunday's low in way South around Eugene while the GFS has it at Central Vancouver Island.

 

That would be potentially at least somewhat interesting for low snow levels on the North side of it.

 

Still think it comes in North though with the consistency there.

[Brennan]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

november 2006 redux???

 

november 2006 redux???

 

Oh gosh. I think our PDX members would die.

 

Looks like my location scored about a foot of snow with that. 

 

November 2006 would have been fun up here... 6.69" of rain on the 7th.

[westcoastexpat]

Exactly what I want to see. Very much like the 1949, 1956, and 1968 warning shots in early to mid December. I hope this about where we end up.

Those analogs kind of suck for the summer and fall patterns we saw. We can't base analogs based on cold shots in December. We saw a cold shot last December. Analog? No.

[Brennan]

Block pinching off quicker than previous Euro runs? I don't know.

[ShawniganLake]

Oh gosh. I think our PDX members would die.

 

Looks like my location scored about a foot of snow with that. 

 

November 2006 would have been fun up here... 6.69" of rain on the 7th.

Didn't the south sound also struggle badly with that?  I was in Seattle for a couple days during that event.  Mostly cloudy with rain.  I came home on the Sunday to 27" of snow on the ground with temps in the low 20's.  Had a very enjoyable 10hr drive from Seattle to Vancouver. 

[Brennan]

Only 6 days away.

[Heavy Snow]

Oh gosh. I think our PDX members would die.

 

Looks like my location scored about a foot of snow with that. 

 

November 2006 would have been fun up here... 6.69" of rain on the 7th.

 

You live on Mt. Jefferson, that's why you get snow.   

[MossMan]

[Kayla]

Only 6 days away.

 

Blocking is looking much healthier on this run. Liking the trend on the models this morning.

[Jesse]

You can judge for yourself, I guess.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1980.html

Cross your fingers!

[Jesse]

NWS just updated their current observation pages

 

They look funky and back to hourly observations it would appear.

I don't like it. Change makes me scared.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The models trended cooler and are showing the same general pattern. I like it. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I don't like it. Change makes me scared.

I offer "free" hugs to help you get through it. 

[Kayla]

12z Euro has -20 850's crossing into Eastern WA at hour 198. Definitely colder than any Euro run yet.

[FroYoBro]

Looks like this euro run would probably give a good amount of lowland snow. I like that the Euro and Canadian are showing the low further south.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What is that -8C at PDX? Its so hard for me to tell on the EURO. 

[Kayla]

Looks like this euro run would probably give a good amount of lowland snow. I like that the Euro and Canadian are showing the low further south.

 

Surface maps are in fact showing widespread 1-3" snowfall amounts for PDX.

[crf450ish]

Went to bed @ 11pm last night with heavy rain falling @ 38 degrees. Woke up at 6am this morning to an inch of snow on the ground. 

[Kayla]

What is that -8C at PDX? Its so hard for me to tell on the EURO. 

 

-7C at 850mb and -3C at 925mb for PDX. SEA -8C at 850mb.

 

Plenty cold enough for snowfall at PDX. No doubt the both of us will have no problem getting some decent accumulations.

[Front Ranger]

12z is quite a bit better.

 

Sturdier block, more cold air, and at face value looks snowy for pretty much all of Western Washington on Monday and Tuesday at face value.

What about face value?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like a decent warning shot next week... (mon-wed) Short and sweet. After that not great.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-7C at 850mb and -3C at 925mb for PDX. SEA -8C at 850mb.

 

Plenty cold enough for snowfall at PDX. No doubt the both of us will have no problem getting some decent accumulations.

 

Sounds good. Thanks!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The December 1956 "warning shot" is interesting. Almost a foot of snow at my location in what was otherwise a fairly warm month. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like a decent warning shot next week... (mon-wed) Short and sweet. After that not great.

Exactly what I wanted. 1949, 1956, and 1968 all had something similar.

[TT-SEA]

Decent amount of lowland snow on 12Z ECMWF through day 10...