Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Snow Cold Bitter
- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#51
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2016 - 07:29 AM

ShawniganLake

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3096 posts
  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft

Some road flooding going on I noticed on my way to work, the ground is quickly reaching its saturation point, if we get a major atmospheric river event I could foresee some pretty good flooding and landslides happening.

Tomorrow's storm looks good for 6-12" of rain. Luckily it's heading for central Vancouver Island
  • MossMan likes this

#52
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2016 - 07:53 AM

SilverFallsAndrew

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10205 posts
  • LocationSilverton, OR

Tomorrow's storm looks good for 6-12" of rain. Luckily it's heading for central Vancouver Island

 

Yikes! It is a beautiful morning down here. The river is running pretty high (Willamette), at its rainy season norm. A bald eagle is building a nest on the island across from my office so that is kind of cool. 


  • MossMan and DJ Droppin like this

Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#53
MossMan

Posted 01 November 2016 - 08:06 AM

MossMan

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4671 posts
  • LocationArlington, Wa
The rain has just stopped at my work and I even see a hint of clearing. My office view is of I-5 so I don't currently see any eagles but I do see lots of spray coming off of the semi's still.

#54
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2016 - 08:15 AM

SilverFallsAndrew

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10205 posts
  • LocationSilverton, OR

The rain has just stopped at my work and I even see a hint of clearing. My office view is of I-5 so I don't currently see any eagles but I do see lots of spray coming off of the semi's still.

 

My office has its pros and cons. The view is great on the back side. The parking lot and street are in one of the worst most ugly/industrial parts of Salem. The beautiful island with all the wildlife was the site of a homeless camp this summer. They have since evacuated to the mainland given the rising water levels.  


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#55
Phil

Posted 01 November 2016 - 08:46 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.
New ECMWF weekly control run depicts four separate Arctic outbreaks from late November into mid December. Fits with the earlier depiction from the ECMWF seasonal, with the big EPO/AO blocks in December.
  • DJ Droppin, hawkstwelve and Tundra like this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#56
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2016 - 08:51 AM

ShawniganLake

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3096 posts
  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft

New ECMWF weekly control run depicts four separate Arctic outbreaks from late November into mid December. Fits with the earlier depiction from the ECMWF seasonal, with the big EPO/AO blocks in December.

4 for the nation as a whole, or directed into any particular region?



#57
crf450ish

Posted 01 November 2016 - 08:59 AM

crf450ish

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 793 posts
  • LocationStevens County

What a mess. If I were to extrapolate this out to FCST HR 2460 it shows a Winter Cancel. Thankfully this is only FCST HR 264, so we're good. Plenty of time to turn things around. Yeah, that's sarcasm. The good thing is the CFS flip-flops more than flip-flops. I just made that up literally right now.

 

12z GFS in 3 hours 8 minutes!

This! Is awesome!  :lol:


  • DJ Droppin likes this

#58
MossMan

Posted 01 November 2016 - 09:05 AM

MossMan

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4671 posts
  • LocationArlington, Wa

My office has its pros and cons. The view is great on the back side. The parking lot and street are in one of the worst most ugly/industrial parts of Salem. The beautiful island with all the wildlife was the site of a homeless camp this summer. They have since evacuated to the mainland given the rising water levels.

, My office overlooks I-5 (con) but the front of the building all wooded and the property has a half mile walking trail through the woods that runs the perimeter. (Pro) luckily no homeless camps around here...they are mainly behind the Walmart and Safeway at Smokey Point, and the walkers (is what I call them since they walk like stoned zombies) mainly stay in the immediate area. Also the couple mile stretch around my work tends to do better in the snow department than other places around here (northern Stanwood, extreme southern Mt Vernon area) so that is another pro!

#59
Phil

Posted 01 November 2016 - 10:51 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

4 for the nation as a whole, or directed into any particular region?


Into the PNW.
  • Tundra likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#60
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2016 - 11:45 AM

SilverFallsAndrew

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10205 posts
  • LocationSilverton, OR

Into the PNW.

 

That would be epic.


  • Phil and Tundra like this

Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#61
Front Ranger

Posted 01 November 2016 - 11:57 AM

Front Ranger

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9258 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

New ECMWF weekly control run depicts four separate Arctic outbreaks from late November into mid December. Fits with the earlier depiction from the ECMWF seasonal, with the big EPO/AO blocks in December.

 

The new January!

 

Snow wizard will be so pissed if this happens.


  • Phil likes this

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#62
Phil

Posted 01 November 2016 - 12:00 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

The new January!

Snow wizard will be so pissed if this happens.


Yeah, so would I. Means I have to sit under this ridge for another month if that verifies. This bastard literally hasn't budged since the 4th of July.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#63
Chewbacca Defense

Posted 01 November 2016 - 12:01 PM

Chewbacca Defense

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 75 posts
  • LocationBellingham WA - 325ft

, My office overlooks I-5 (con) but the front of the building all wooded and the property has a half mile walking trail through the woods that runs the perimeter. (Pro) luckily no homeless camps around here...they are mainly behind the Walmart and Safeway at Smokey Point, and the walkers (is what I call them since they walk like stoned zombies) mainly stay in the immediate area. Also the couple mile stretch around my work tends to do better in the snow department than other places around here (northern Stanwood, extreme southern Mt Vernon area) so that is another pro!

 

 

The first 5 years I had huge windows facing north but I unfortunately got moved several years ago and now have nothing but a cement wall to look at.  I have to rely on these links (which are in the same development as my work)

 

http://199.48.198.28...x.shtml?id=3872

 

This one is on a taller building and gives a good view to the SW out towards Bellingham Bay and the San Juans

 

http://199.48.198.27...ex.shtml?id=159



#64
Phil

Posted 01 November 2016 - 12:08 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.
Nice to see the PV continually bombarded. So far, we've been able to prevent it from strengthening beyond the point of no return, hence the continued frigid weather over most of the northern hemispheric mid-latitudes (everywhere except North America, haha). Approaching record territory yet again over the next two weeks.

u_65N_10hpa.png
  • Front Ranger likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#65
Front Ranger

Posted 01 November 2016 - 12:12 PM

Front Ranger

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9258 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

Nice to see the PV continually bombarded. So far, we've been able to prevent it from strengthening beyond the point of no return, hence the continued frigid weather over most of the northern hemispheric mid-latitudes (everywhere except North America, haha). Approaching record territory yet again over the next two weeks.
 

 

Wasn't there something similar going on in 2009? I seem to remember record Arctic blocking and PV bombardment that October, only the cold was focused squarely over North America. Which is more common with Ninos anyway.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#66
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2016 - 12:16 PM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21465 posts

GFS ensembles are warm for the first 17 days of November... following Jim's script.    

 

Less wet as well:

 

MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png



#67
Phil

Posted 01 November 2016 - 12:17 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

Wasn't there something similar going on in 2009? I seem to remember record Arctic blocking that October, only the cold was focused squarely over North America. Which is more common with Ninos anyway.


Yeah, definitely similar. Zonal winds @ 30mb/60N hit record lows during the same timeframe as is now prognosticated. Was a Niño year but still potentially consequential in the long range.

64F6A13E-FDE9-43D9-8CA2-1CCBB90186AB_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#68
Front Ranger

Posted 01 November 2016 - 12:18 PM

Front Ranger

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9258 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

Looks like about half the days after tomorrow are dry for you guys on the 12z Euro.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#69
Phil

Posted 01 November 2016 - 12:20 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.
Here's 2016 so far, with model forecasts. Similar. Can also see last winter's raging PV on there, which was a major player in the nationwide warmth (in addition to the super niño/+PNA).

Looks like we'll be challenging 2009's record in regards to the zonal winds.

77343D54-42D1-4E84-A937-7FF4360227F5_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#70
MossMan

Posted 01 November 2016 - 12:50 PM

MossMan

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4671 posts
  • LocationArlington, Wa

Looks like about half the days after tomorrow are dry for you guys on the 12z Euro.

That would be welcome...my yard really needs a lot of fall cleanup work.

#71
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2016 - 01:01 PM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21465 posts

That would be welcome...my yard really needs a lot of fall cleanup work.

 

 

But you want endless storms and rain!    



#72
MossMan

Posted 01 November 2016 - 01:11 PM

MossMan

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4671 posts
  • LocationArlington, Wa

But you want endless storms and rain!

Haha, noooo! Give me exciting extreme weather, or just seasonal temps and dryness. These last two weeks have been pretty much terrible.

#73
MossMan

Posted 01 November 2016 - 01:20 PM

MossMan

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4671 posts
  • LocationArlington, Wa

The first 5 years I had huge windows facing north but I unfortunately got moved several years ago and now have nothing but a cement wall to look at. I have to rely on these links (which are in the same development as my work)

http://199.48.198.28...x.shtml?id=3872

This one is on a taller building and gives a good view to the SW out towards Bellingham Bay and the San Juans

http://199.48.198.27...ex.shtml?id=159

Nice! Sucks they moved you though. I tell you though, it's nice to look outside during this time of the year rather than be out in it. I had worked outside for 17yrs before getting my current job. Probably a reason why I so dislike boring endless rainy days. Think I am still water logged from all those years!

#74
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2016 - 01:25 PM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21465 posts

The first 5 years I had huge windows facing north but I unfortunately got moved several years ago and now have nothing but a cement wall to look at.  I have to rely on these links (which are in the same development as my work)

 

http://199.48.198.28...x.shtml?id=3872

 

This one is on a taller building and gives a good view to the SW out towards Bellingham Bay and the San Juans

 

http://199.48.198.27...ex.shtml?id=159

 

Nice area.   My parents live about a mile from there as you know and I use those cameras all the time to see what is happening up there.   Those are great live feeds.



#75
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2016 - 01:59 PM

ShawniganLake

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3096 posts
  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft
The next system must be cruising right along. Already raining again here.

#76
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2016 - 02:01 PM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21465 posts

The next system must be cruising right along. Already raining again here.

 

 

Yeah... that amorphous blob of rain that decided to dump rain here from yesterday evening through this morning transitioned to a warm front after about an hour break and it started raining here again.   

 

Thursday and Friday look nice... weekend looks very wet again.    Lather... rinse... repeat.   



#77
Phil

Posted 01 November 2016 - 02:01 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.
That recent geomagnetic storm is getting some attention now in the scientific community, given the unexpected flip in the NAO forecasts in addition to the observed increase in the rate of O^3 photodissociation. Not exactly a good thing, but likely temporary if the solar wind doesn't remain elevated in this manner for a prolonged period of time.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#78
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2016 - 02:04 PM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21465 posts

Some October departures from normal:

 

SEA  +2.0

WFO SEA +2.1

OLM  +2.2

BLI  +3.2



#79
westcoastexpat

Posted 01 November 2016 - 02:20 PM

westcoastexpat

    Forum Contributor

  • Meteorologist
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 860 posts
  • LocationBlaine, WA

1983/84 and 1995/96 analogs continue to run wild in winter outlooks.

 

ECMWF really hammering teleconnections for December. Coast to coast would get blasted with arctic air.

 

One fairly reputable eastern met is big on the 1950/51 analog.


  • MossMan, catnip, luvssnow_seattle and 2 others like this

#80
westcoastexpat

Posted 01 November 2016 - 02:22 PM

westcoastexpat

    Forum Contributor

  • Meteorologist
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 860 posts
  • LocationBlaine, WA

Looks like we may be setting up for:

 

1st half November = nationwide torch

End of November = transition period, highly variable

Early December = arctic air floods nationwide


  • hcr32, MossMan, catnip and 2 others like this

#81
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 November 2016 - 02:50 PM

AlpineExperience

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2615 posts
  • LocationEastSide

Looks like we may be setting up for:

1st half November = nationwide torch
End of November = transition period, highly variable
Early December = arctic air floods nationwide



That would be awesome

#82
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2016 - 02:54 PM

ShawniganLake

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3096 posts
  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft

1983/84 and 1995/96 analogs continue to run wild in winter outlooks.

ECMWF really hammering teleconnections for December. Coast to coast would get blasted with arctic air.

One fairly reputable eastern met is big on the 1950/51 analog.

Yea. Bastardi was big on the 50-51 analog.

#83
Sometimesdylan

Posted 01 November 2016 - 03:03 PM

Sometimesdylan

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 230 posts
  • LocationJuneau AK

That recent geomagnetic storm is getting some attention now in the scientific community, given the unexpected flip in the NAO forecasts in addition to the observed increase in the rate of O^3 photodissociation. Not exactly a good thing, but likely temporary if the solar wind doesn't remain elevated in this manner for a prolonged period of time.

 

Got some good auroras out of that one. Saw more Auroras this fall than I've seen in the last couple years in Juneau. Helps when it's so clear out a lot of the time!


"There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku


#84
Phil

Posted 01 November 2016 - 03:11 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

Got some good auroras out of that one. Saw more Auroras this fall than I've seen in the last couple years in Juneau. Helps when it's so clear out a lot of the time!


Yeah, it was a strong geomagnetic storm. It's no coincidence that modeling tends to swing wildly after these events, sometimes within just 4-5 days.

In this case, the strong polar blocking that was being modeled has largely vanished from most guidance, and when looking at the stratospheric temperatures, the impact is obvious. Lots of O^3 was destroyed, hence the cooling. Hopefully temporary.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#85
BLI snowman

Posted 01 November 2016 - 03:18 PM

BLI snowman

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5108 posts
  • LocationRidgefield, WA

Yea. Bastardi was big on the 50-51 analog.


Our warmest December on record. Very active November.

#86
bainbridgekid

Posted 01 November 2016 - 03:25 PM

bainbridgekid

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2426 posts
  • LocationMountlake Terrace, WA (510 feet)

Here's 2016 so far, with model forecasts. Similar. Can also see last winter's raging PV on there, which was a major player in the nationwide warmth (in addition to the super niño/+PNA).

Looks like we'll be challenging 2009's record in regards to the zonal winds.

77343D54-42D1-4E84-A937-7FF4360227F5_zps

Interesting. 

 

I'm assuming 60* North zonal winds have a pretty strong correlation to the strength of the PV?


2016-17 snowfall: 12"

 

12/8-9: 3.5"

12/23: 0.25"

12/31: 0.25"

2/3: 0.5"

2/5-6: 4"

2/26: 0.25"

2/27: 1.5"+0.5"+0.25"

2/28: 0.25"

3/7/17: 0.5"

3/8/17: 0.25"

 

 


#87
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 November 2016 - 03:26 PM

luvssnow_seattle

    Epic is always possible... 1% of the time!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3136 posts
  • LocationBonney Lake - 560ft

Looks like we may be setting up for:

 

1st half November = nationwide torch

End of November = transition period, highly variable

Early December = arctic air floods nationwide

.... arctic air just missing us and sliding into eastern Washington giving us a dry glancing blow as we watch everyone else get hammered... Just so we can hold out until January for Snowiz ;)



#88
Sometimesdylan

Posted 01 November 2016 - 03:28 PM

Sometimesdylan

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 230 posts
  • LocationJuneau AK

Yeah, it was a strong geomagnetic storm. It's no coincidence that modeling tends to swing wildly after these events, sometimes within just 4-5 days.

In this case, the strong polar blocking that was being modeled has largely vanished from most guidance, and when looking at the stratospheric temperatures, the impact is obvious. Lots of O^3 was destroyed, hence the cooling. Hopefully temporary.

Thanks for the explanation. It's nice reading here and getting a well rounded series of replies. So cool having people here talking about what is happening at the surface, or at 500mb, or... way higher than that. 

 


  • Phil and DJ Droppin like this

"There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku


#89
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2016 - 03:39 PM

ShawniganLake

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3096 posts
  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft

Our warmest December on record. Very active November.

If my memory is correct.....March was a bit silly.

#90
BLI snowman

Posted 01 November 2016 - 04:21 PM

BLI snowman

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5108 posts
  • LocationRidgefield, WA

If my memory is correct.....March was a bit silly.


Just a tad.

March in the 1950s was probably a snowier month than January in the 2010s.

#91
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 November 2016 - 04:45 PM

AlpineExperience

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2615 posts
  • LocationEastSide

.... arctic air just missing us and sliding into eastern Washington giving us a dry glancing blow as we watch everyone else get hammered... Just so we can hold out until January for Snowiz ;)

 

Sadly I could see this happening. Florida with 12+ inches, while Seattle basks in cold dry air or 33 degree rain in Bonney Lake =)



#92
Front Ranger

Posted 01 November 2016 - 04:46 PM

Front Ranger

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9258 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

Yea. Bastardi was big on the 50-51 analog.

 

He was also big on 1949-50 leading up to 2007-08. So close!


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#93
Phil

Posted 01 November 2016 - 04:54 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12839 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

Interesting.

I'm assuming 60* North zonal winds have a pretty strong inverse correlation to the strength of the PV?


Weak zonal winds @ 60N are associated with weak PV, while stronger zonal winds are associated with a stronger PV.

Think of the PV as a giant chemical tornado, extending from the tropopause into the mesosphere, with "multiple vortices" that extend into the polar troposphere in a coupled manner. That's the most simplistic way I can think to describe it.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#94
bainbridgekid

Posted 01 November 2016 - 04:59 PM

bainbridgekid

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2426 posts
  • LocationMountlake Terrace, WA (510 feet)

Weak zonal winds @ 60N are associated with weak PV, while stronger zonal winds are associated with a stronger PV.

Think of the PV as a giant chemical tornado, extending from the tropopause into the mesosphere, with "multiple vortices" that extend into the polar troposphere in a coupled manner. That's the most simplistic way I can think to describe it.

Exactly what I meant but was typing quickly. Not an inverse relationship but a positive one.

 

I certainly wouldn't complain about a weak PV continuing into the Winter.


2016-17 snowfall: 12"

 

12/8-9: 3.5"

12/23: 0.25"

12/31: 0.25"

2/3: 0.5"

2/5-6: 4"

2/26: 0.25"

2/27: 1.5"+0.5"+0.25"

2/28: 0.25"

3/7/17: 0.5"

3/8/17: 0.25"

 

 


#95
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2016 - 04:59 PM

ShawniganLake

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3096 posts
  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft

Just a tad.

March in the 1950s was probably a snowier month than January in the 2010s.

I seem to remember Abbotsford showing ~45" in March of 1951. That would probably nearly equal all January's combined in the 2010s.

#96
Front Ranger

Posted 01 November 2016 - 05:12 PM

Front Ranger

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9258 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

I seem to remember Abbotsford showing ~45" in March of 1951. That would probably nearly equal all January's combined in the 2010s.

 

We still have 3 to go...all it takes is one.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#97
westcoastexpat

Posted 01 November 2016 - 05:26 PM

westcoastexpat

    Forum Contributor

  • Meteorologist
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 860 posts
  • LocationBlaine, WA

Quite the drought in SE US. I recall Fall 2007 having a bad drought there and the SE ridge was pretty persistent all winter. I wonder if there is a correlation.



#98
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2016 - 05:26 PM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21465 posts

Thinking no frost tonight.  



#99
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2016 - 05:29 PM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 21465 posts

Good job WRF... once again proving your model superiority.    Its dumping rain here now.      ECMWF just absolutely owns the WRF on surface details.

 

pcp3_15_0000.gif

 

ATX_0_2.png

 

 

At least the 12Z ECMWF said it would be raining this evening.

 

ecmwf_slp_precip_seattle_4.png



#100
MossMan

Posted 01 November 2016 - 05:31 PM

MossMan

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4671 posts
  • LocationArlington, Wa
It's raining!