November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

[ Model Countdown ]
Next up.... (Not including the NAM as I don't see a need for it at this time.)
*12z GFS in 2 hours 34 minutes
12z GEM/CMC in 3 hours 34 minutes
12z ECMWF in 4 hours 53 minutes
I sure hope something interesting shows up on the runs today. A major pattern shift, the western ridge breaking down, a wind storm, early Fall cold shot. Anything. Really. Anything.

[TT-SEA]

SEA ends up with 10.05 inches for October... previous record was 8.96 inches which was well above the second place year.     

 

Oh... and its still pouring rain this morning!     Good start on November.   

 

[TT-SEA]

SEA NWS summary of October in the AFD:

 

CLIMATE...The October rainfall total for Seattle ended up at a
record breaking 10.05". The old record was 8.96 inches set in 2003.
October 2003 included the daily record rainfall of 5.02" on October
20th. There were only 14 days with measurable rain in October 2003.
In contrast, October 2016 also set the record for the most days with
measurable rain in the month of October for Seattle with 25 days. The
old record was 23 days set in 1956, 1950 and 1947. 

[wx_statman]

Almost 50" of rain in the south WA Cascades in October! Graphic courtesy of Mark Nelsen:

 

 

[Jesse]

I wonder what the record for 60+ days in November is at PDX.

[wx_statman]

I wonder what the record for 60+ days in November is at PDX.

 

30 days in 2016?

[wx_statman]

SEA NWS summary of October in the AFD:

 

CLIMATE...The October rainfall total for Seattle ended up at a

record breaking 10.05". The old record was 8.96 inches set in 2003.

October 2003 included the daily record rainfall of 5.02" on October

20th. There were only 14 days with measurable rain in October 2003.

In contrast, October 2016 also set the record for the most days with

measurable rain in the month of October for Seattle with 25 days. The

old record was 23 days set in 1956, 1950 and 1947. 

 

28 days with .01" or more at PDX. Previous October record was 23 days.

 

8.31" total fell just short of 8.41" in 1994, though.

[TT-SEA]

06Z GFS showed many more dry days than we have seen lately... makes sense.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I had 17.01" which is just below the record from 1947 for this location. Still pretty impressive ranking right behind Jan 2012, Mar 2012, Dec 2015 in terms of wettest months since I have lived up here. 

[MossMan]

Some road flooding going on I noticed on my way to work, the ground is quickly reaching its saturation point, if we get a major atmospheric river event I could foresee some pretty good flooding and landslides happening.

[ShawniganLake]

Some road flooding going on I noticed on my way to work, the ground is quickly reaching its saturation point, if we get a major atmospheric river event I could foresee some pretty good flooding and landslides happening.

Tomorrow's storm looks good for 6-12" of rain. Luckily it's heading for central Vancouver Island

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tomorrow's storm looks good for 6-12" of rain. Luckily it's heading for central Vancouver Island

 

Yikes! It is a beautiful morning down here. The river is running pretty high (Willamette), at its rainy season norm. A bald eagle is building a nest on the island across from my office so that is kind of cool. 

[MossMan]

The rain has just stopped at my work and I even see a hint of clearing. My office view is of I-5 so I don't currently see any eagles but I do see lots of spray coming off of the semi's still.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The rain has just stopped at my work and I even see a hint of clearing. My office view is of I-5 so I don't currently see any eagles but I do see lots of spray coming off of the semi's still.

 

My office has its pros and cons. The view is great on the back side. The parking lot and street are in one of the worst most ugly/industrial parts of Salem. The beautiful island with all the wildlife was the site of a homeless camp this summer. They have since evacuated to the mainland given the rising water levels.  

[Phil]

New ECMWF weekly control run depicts four separate Arctic outbreaks from late November into mid December. Fits with the earlier depiction from the ECMWF seasonal, with the big EPO/AO blocks in December.

[ShawniganLake]

New ECMWF weekly control run depicts four separate Arctic outbreaks from late November into mid December. Fits with the earlier depiction from the ECMWF seasonal, with the big EPO/AO blocks in December.

4 for the nation as a whole, or directed into any particular region?

[crf450ish]

What a mess. If I were to extrapolate this out to FCST HR 2460 it shows a Winter Cancel. Thankfully this is only FCST HR 264, so we're good. Plenty of time to turn things around. Yeah, that's sarcasm. The good thing is the CFS flip-flops more than flip-flops. I just made that up literally right now.

 

12z GFS in 3 hours 8 minutes!

This! Is awesome! 

[MossMan]

My office has its pros and cons. The view is great on the back side. The parking lot and street are in one of the worst most ugly/industrial parts of Salem. The beautiful island with all the wildlife was the site of a homeless camp this summer. They have since evacuated to the mainland given the rising water levels.

, My office overlooks I-5 (con) but the front of the building all wooded and the property has a half mile walking trail through the woods that runs the perimeter. (Pro) luckily no homeless camps around here...they are mainly behind the Walmart and Safeway at Smokey Point, and the walkers (is what I call them since they walk like stoned zombies) mainly stay in the immediate area. Also the couple mile stretch around my work tends to do better in the snow department than other places around here (northern Stanwood, extreme southern Mt Vernon area) so that is another pro!

[Phil]

4 for the nation as a whole, or directed into any particular region?

Into the PNW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Into the PNW.

 

That would be epic.

[Front Ranger]

New ECMWF weekly control run depicts four separate Arctic outbreaks from late November into mid December. Fits with the earlier depiction from the ECMWF seasonal, with the big EPO/AO blocks in December.

 

The new January!

 

Snow wizard will be so pissed if this happens.

[Phil]

The new January!

 

Snow wizard will be so pissed if this happens.

Yeah, so would I. Means I have to sit under this ridge for another month if that verifies. This bastard literally hasn't budged since the 4th of July.

[Chewbacca Defense]

, My office overlooks I-5 (con) but the front of the building all wooded and the property has a half mile walking trail through the woods that runs the perimeter. (Pro) luckily no homeless camps around here...they are mainly behind the Walmart and Safeway at Smokey Point, and the walkers (is what I call them since they walk like stoned zombies) mainly stay in the immediate area. Also the couple mile stretch around my work tends to do better in the snow department than other places around here (northern Stanwood, extreme southern Mt Vernon area) so that is another pro!

 

 

The first 5 years I had huge windows facing north but I unfortunately got moved several years ago and now have nothing but a cement wall to look at.  I have to rely on these links (which are in the same development as my work)

 

http://199.48.198.28/view/viewer_index.shtml?id=3872

 

This one is on a taller building and gives a good view to the SW out towards Bellingham Bay and the San Juans

 

http://199.48.198.27/view/viewer_index.shtml?id=159

[Phil]

Nice to see the PV continually bombarded. So far, we've been able to prevent it from strengthening beyond the point of no return, hence the continued frigid weather over most of the northern hemispheric mid-latitudes (everywhere except North America, haha). Approaching record territory yet again over the next two weeks.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

[Front Ranger]

Nice to see the PV continually bombarded. So far, we've been able to prevent it from strengthening beyond the point of no return, hence the continued frigid weather over most of the northern hemispheric mid-latitudes (everywhere except North America, haha). Approaching record territory yet again over the next two weeks.

 

 

Wasn't there something similar going on in 2009? I seem to remember record Arctic blocking and PV bombardment that October, only the cold was focused squarely over North America. Which is more common with Ninos anyway.

[TT-SEA]

GFS ensembles are warm for the first 17 days of November... following Jim's script.    

 

Less wet as well:

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Phil]

Wasn't there something similar going on in 2009? I seem to remember record Arctic blocking that October, only the cold was focused squarely over North America. Which is more common with Ninos anyway.

Yeah, definitely similar. Zonal winds @ 30mb/60N hit record lows during the same timeframe as is now prognosticated. Was a Niño year but still potentially consequential in the long range.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/64F6A13E-FDE9-43D9-8CA2-1CCBB90186AB_zpsxp3hdm4j.jpeg

[Front Ranger]

Looks like about half the days after tomorrow are dry for you guys on the 12z Euro.

[Phil]

Here's 2016 so far, with model forecasts. Similar. Can also see last winter's raging PV on there, which was a major player in the nationwide warmth (in addition to the super niño/+PNA).

 

Looks like we'll be challenging 2009's record in regards to the zonal winds.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/77343D54-42D1-4E84-A937-7FF4360227F5_zpsnaqidzcg.jpeg

[MossMan]

Looks like about half the days after tomorrow are dry for you guys on the 12z Euro.

That would be welcome...my yard really needs a lot of fall cleanup work.

[TT-SEA]

That would be welcome...my yard really needs a lot of fall cleanup work.

 

 

But you want endless storms and rain!    

[MossMan]

But you want endless storms and rain!

Haha, noooo! Give me exciting extreme weather, or just seasonal temps and dryness. These last two weeks have been pretty much terrible.

[MossMan]

The first 5 years I had huge windows facing north but I unfortunately got moved several years ago and now have nothing but a cement wall to look at. I have to rely on these links (which are in the same development as my work)

 

http://199.48.198.28/view/viewer_index.shtml?id=3872

 

This one is on a taller building and gives a good view to the SW out towards Bellingham Bay and the San Juans

 

http://199.48.198.27/view/viewer_index.shtml?id=159

Nice! Sucks they moved you though. I tell you though, it's nice to look outside during this time of the year rather than be out in it. I had worked outside for 17yrs before getting my current job. Probably a reason why I so dislike boring endless rainy days. Think I am still water logged from all those years!

[TT-SEA]

The first 5 years I had huge windows facing north but I unfortunately got moved several years ago and now have nothing but a cement wall to look at.  I have to rely on these links (which are in the same development as my work)

 

http://199.48.198.28/view/viewer_index.shtml?id=3872

 

This one is on a taller building and gives a good view to the SW out towards Bellingham Bay and the San Juans

 

http://199.48.198.27/view/viewer_index.shtml?id=159

 

Nice area.   My parents live about a mile from there as you know and I use those cameras all the time to see what is happening up there.   Those are great live feeds.

[ShawniganLake]

The next system must be cruising right along. Already raining again here.

[TT-SEA]

The next system must be cruising right along. Already raining again here.

 

 

Yeah... that amorphous blob of rain that decided to dump rain here from yesterday evening through this morning transitioned to a warm front after about an hour break and it started raining here again.   

 

Thursday and Friday look nice... weekend looks very wet again.    Lather... rinse... repeat.   

[Phil]

That recent geomagnetic storm is getting some attention now in the scientific community, given the unexpected flip in the NAO forecasts in addition to the observed increase in the rate of O^3 photodissociation. Not exactly a good thing, but likely temporary if the solar wind doesn't remain elevated in this manner for a prolonged period of time.

[TT-SEA]

Some October departures from normal:

 

SEA  +2.0

WFO SEA +2.1

OLM  +2.2

BLI  +3.2

[westcoastexpat]

1983/84 and 1995/96 analogs continue to run wild in winter outlooks.

 

ECMWF really hammering teleconnections for December. Coast to coast would get blasted with arctic air.

 

One fairly reputable eastern met is big on the 1950/51 analog.

[westcoastexpat]

Looks like we may be setting up for:

 

1st half November = nationwide torch

End of November = transition period, highly variable

Early December = arctic air floods nationwide