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November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Gradient Keeper

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Take this with a grain of pepper and not too literally. It sure is pretty though, isn't it? Subject to change: Yes

 

00z CFS shows classic retrogression beginning at day 12. It takes awhile, but a solid block builds over Alaska with 500mb heights over 560 across southern Alaska. Flow eventually buckles bends around to the northeast. 850mb -10c and colder move over WA/parts of OR. Done deal. Sorry for posting so many images, but I think you'll be okay with it.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/288/500h_anom.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/336/500h_anom.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/420/500h_anom.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/384/850th_nb.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/432/850th_nb.na.png

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Maybe not as much of a hit as Portland/Seattle, but Bellingham is currently averaging maybe 7" per winter for the 2009-present period. Four of the last seven winters have essentially been snowless right in town. That's a huge hit from historic norms and an ugly trend for Whatcom County if it continues much longer.

 

 

Another previous terrible period for them was 1939-40 through 1945-46.  Things sure turned around after that. 

 

I think the solar question is the big hope for snow lovers here.  That is one variable we have yet to see if it really matters that much.  We'll probably know for sure after a couple more solar cycles.  Even the minimum on this cycle will be deep enough to hopefully provide some insight.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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One thing that makes a cold snap a bit more likely in the longer range is the expected emergence of a strong MJO wave.  With a strong progressive wave we should have a window of opportunity.  Then of course the retrogression of a very torchy pattern is also a good bet for cold historically speaking.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I don't think snowfall has declined as much at my elevation either. We had 2007-08, 08-09, 10-11, 11-12 which were all huge snowfall years up here. The last four years have been pretty abysmal averaging though...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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So getting caught up on the forum reading it seems like late November/early December could be the timeframe to watch for our kickoff to possible cold and snow. Matt was the first to call it...Will he be right? November could infact be the new January!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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It definitely looks like much of Eurasia is enjoying some nice early season cold.

This is a fairly basic article on the recent cold in Eurasia.  I am not necessarily agreeing with it all but thought it was good at a general overview and simple enough for me to understand.  This is an old article.  I am sure there are more recent ones that have more accurate info now.

http://mashable.com/2014/10/27/global-warming-doubles-risk-frigid-winters-eurasia/#ckk4u3D3Ekqs

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It definitely looks like much of Eurasia is enjoying some nice early season cold.

Looks like it will flood our side of the world toward the end of the month.

 

Many signs pointing toward December being our month... And quite frankly, that's my preference. Snow leading up to Christmas really sets the mood.

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Looks like it will flood our side of the world toward the end of the month.

 

Many signs pointing toward December being our month... And quite frankly, that's my preference. Snow leading up to Christmas really sets the mood.

 

 

 

Yeah... it would sort of suck to be in the 50s with pouring rain leading up to and through Christmas and then have snow and cold in the middle of January.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like it will flood our side of the world toward the end of the month.

 

Many signs pointing toward December being our month... And quite frankly, that's my preference. Snow leading up to Christmas really sets the mood.

I agree! 1990, 1996, and 2008 were so magical and stick out in my mind way more than other Christmas Days.
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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December of course is the month I will be spending a good chunk of time out of state with my kids. The best snowfall of the season last winter fell when I was out in Oklahoma...I will say though, as much as I love snow I would rather spend time with my kids.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like most places in Oklahoma ran a +6 departure for October. It was beautiful when I was out there...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Take this with a grain of pepper and not too literally. It sure is pretty though, isn't it? Subject to change: Yes

 

00z CFS shows classic retrogression beginning at day 12. It takes awhile, but a solid block builds over Alaska with 500mb heights over 560 across southern Alaska. Flow eventually buckles bends around to the northeast. 850mb -10c and colder move over WA/parts of OR. Done deal. Sorry for posting so many images, but I think you'll be okay with it.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/288/500h_anom.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/336/500h_anom.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/420/500h_anom.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/384/850th_nb.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/432/850th_nb.na.png

You big tease.... NOW stop.... ;)

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Love all these CFS runs...Can't wait to see what the 18z has in store...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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So getting caught up on the forum reading it seems like late November/early December could be the timeframe to watch for our kickoff to possible cold and snow. Matt was the first to call it...Will he be right? November could infact be the new January!

By what I am seeing I do agree with the potential for this year. I would keep my eyes peeled for the models to start to show us some confidence around the 2nd week of November. Just my guess but that is my strong gut feeling at this point... I feel like this year is oozing with significantly more potential than the last two...

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By what I am seeing I do agree with the potential for this year. I would keep my eyes peeled for the models to start to show us some confidence around the 2nd week of November. Just my guess but that is my strong gut feeling at this point... I feel like this year is oozing with significantly more potential than the last two...

Considering how terrible it has been up north since 2012 that shouldn't be hard to achieve.

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Some snowfall data from the 80s was accidentally left out on that graphic. In reality the 1980s were snowier than the 90s and 00s.

I was an '80's kid and I do remember a lot of great snowy and cold periods that decade. About the same as the 90's. Yeah that graphic needs some work.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Pretty incredible scrolling through the first 10 days of the 12Z GFS. Not a whiff of cold air from coast to coast, with a massive ridge dominating the central part of the continent.

 

I was looking at the 7-day forecast for NE Oklahoma this morning. 70s as far as the eye can see.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Pretty incredible scrolling through the first 10 days of the 12Z GFS. Not a whiff of cold air from coast to coast, with a massive ridge dominating the central part of the continent.

 

Bodes well for Black Friday...

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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It definitely looks like much of Eurasia is enjoying some nice early season cold.

 

Bastardi is really focusing on that and figuring there will be a reversal at some point.  History is on his side with that.  There are many times nationwide torches have become nationwide freezes.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Love all these CFS runs...Can't wait to see what the 18z has in store...

 

They are kind of a guilty pleasure.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This is a fairly basic article on the recent cold in Eurasia. I am not necessarily agreeing with it all but thought it was good at a general overview and simple enough for me to understand. This is an old article. I am sure there are more recent ones that have more accurate info now.

http://mashable.com/2014/10/27/global-warming-doubles-risk-frigid-winters-eurasia/#ckk4u3D3Ekqs

Thing is, blocking regimes themselves warm the Arctic and cool the mid-latitudes. I think it's more likely the blockier regimes (especially during the summers, starting in 2007) are responsible for both the ice-melt and colder mid latitudes.

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Bastardi is really focusing on that and figuring there will be a reversal at some point. History is on his side with that. There are many times nationwide torches have become nationwide freezes.

Euro weeklies and CFS both seem to agree as well. Bottling up cold air in the fall and releasing it all to NA for end of November.

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Regarding mild Arctic summers/ice melt, note the J/J/A NAO trend, recent shift in the climatological background state there is notable. This represent what's known as an "Arctic dipole" anomaly, which is a blocking pattern that assists in torching/melting the Arctic. Graph credit goes to Anthony Masiello:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/9E236119-1DDC-41C2-98DA-06484B49AB48_zpszwalzsip.jpg

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Bastardi is really focusing on that and figuring there will be a reversal at some point. History is on his side with that. There are many times nationwide torches have become nationwide freezes.

Euro weeklies and CFS both seem to agree as well. Bottling up cold air in the fall and releasing it all to NA for end of November.

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As for what's causing the shift, no one knows. Theories range from shifts in the tropical convection and Hadley/Ferrel ratios, sea ice decline (seems to be more of an effect, statistically), changes in the BDC/upper level chemistry, solar wind dynamic pressure/geomagnetic activity variations, nonlinear coupled processes of unknown origin, and/or a combination of one or more of these factors.

 

Either way, this has been very significant.

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Are you going to put out a winter forecast this year?

I already did, buried in the October thread I think.

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Regarding mild Arctic summers/ice melt, note the J/J/A NAO trend, recent shift in the climatological background state there is notable. This represent what's known as an "Arctic dipole" anomaly, which is a blocking pattern that assists in torching/melting the Arctic. Graph credit goes to Anthony Masiello:

 

 

That paints an interesting picture alright.  Probably no accident it began in 2007.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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As for what's causing the shift, no one knows. Theories range from shifts in the tropical convection and Hadley/Ferrel ratios, sea ice decline (seems to be more of an effect, statistically), changes in the BDC/upper level chemistry, solar wind dynamic pressure/geomagnetic activity variations, nonlinear coupled processes of unknown origin, and/or a combination of one or more of these factors.

 

Either way, this has been very significant.

 

To me the suddenness indicates it's just one of those things Mother Nature does to keep us guessing.  Probably just a normal fluctuation / regime state.  I've heard the 1920s or 1930s had low Arctic sea ice also.  I never really dug deep on it though. 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Regarding mild Arctic summers/ice melt, note the J/J/A NAO trend, recent shift in the climatological background state there is notable. This represent what's known as an "Arctic dipole" anomaly, which is a blocking pattern that assists in torching/melting the Arctic. Graph credit goes to Anthony Masiello:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/9E236119-1DDC-41C2-98DA-06484B49AB48_zpszwalzsip.jpg

 

Can it be argued that the -NAO during JJA is at least in part forced by lower Arctic sea ice extent in the summer (and the warmer summer temperatures in the Arctic as a result)? I would think that a warmer Arctic during the summer would create a smaller equator-pole temperature gradient than in summers past, leading to a weaker Icelandic low and less of a pressure gradient across the N. Atlantic during the summer (leading to lower NAO).

 

I know there's a lot more to it than that, but this over-simplified correlation immediately jumped out at me.  

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To me the suddenness indicates it's just one of those things Mother Nature does to keep us guessing.  Probably just a normal fluctuation / regime state.  I've heard the 1920s or 1930s had low Arctic sea ice also.  I never really dug deep on it though. 

 

How can something be "normal" when the climate is warming? Nothing is normal right now. Even cyclical fluctuations are affected/going to be affected by increased temperatures as a result of GHG's. We're talking about open systems in nature being affected by planetary-scale warming...

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