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Mid-late Fall / Early Winter 2016-17 Colder Air Mass Movement and Distribution Projections ..

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#1
richard mann

Posted 18 November 2016 - 11:03 PM

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With main colder air mass(looked at as a whole, across the board, more hemispheric scope, main Northern hemisphere)having been in general recession from the 4th through the 17th of November, .. more, since the 17th, main cold has begun to move and spread daily more southward, and with this idea should continue to do so through to Dec. 1st or 2nd. 
 
This more latitudinal distribution of cold with where otherwise looking at main cold air's more longitudinal movement potential, and with its over the past four or five days having been caused to move relatively slowing eastward, itsalso where looked at as a whole across the boardbeing set more at this point to begin to move more assertively east. This more stepped up movement of main cold more eastward being set to continue through the 29th of Nov., before beginning to let up to another period of slower movement east, more prolonged and progressively slower from that point more forward.
 
Basic idea here. Where and when cold is in general regress, or recessionmore northward and more back toward its main higher latitudes source regions and areasit tends to consolidate and build its basic volume and depth, substantially, i. e. much more so than where and when "expanding", or moving and spreading more southwardmore into the main mid-latitudes.
 
.. Although I've not kept up the idea of working to project broader cold's either whether or both more latitudinal distribution or more longitudinal and where considering its variable pace of progress more eastward, over the summer and to this seasonal point, I have in fact found, more generally, that these elements of main cold air mass both distribution along with more basic, and changing, pace of progress, do in fact, take place year-roundi. e. irrespective of seasonThis, if with their only registering, more where colder is, at any given time during the warmer season months, as working to moderate main higher temperatures downward.
 
No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.  Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture  certainly open to discussion.


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#2
richard mann

Posted 19 November 2016 - 12:14 AM

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An excellent resource for perhaps scrutinizing what I've projected / suggested the likelihood of, here just above.

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/view/globaldata.html#GOES
 
Full, whether plus or minus "zoom", together with even, more longitudinal center-point interactive manipulation potential. If in fact only updated a full day and half later than the more current past day's broader circumstance, all "past" days being otherwise, both easily and readily reviewable. .. (Close the main instructions, over-lain, the main "Menu", check the "zoom" element, and drag the map more horizontally, to a perspective perhaps more "Pan-Pacific".)


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#3
richard mann

Posted 30 November 2016 - 12:17 AM

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With main colder air masslooked at as a whole, across the board, more hemispheric scope, main Northern hemispherehaving been in general expansion mode or moving daily more south since back on the 17th of November, .. beginning later on the 1st or earlier on the 2nd of Dec. main cold should start to regress or retract daily more back northward, with continuing this general recess more through Dec. 14th. 
 
This more latitudinal element of colder air's more basic distributionmore inner-seasonalwith where otherwise looking at main cold's more longitudinal movement potential, and with its over the past week or so having been caused to move at a relatively more stepped up pace eastward, itsalso where looked at as a whole across the boardbeing set, more at and from this point forward, to move daily more slowly east. This slower movement of main cold more eastward being set to continue through the 10th or 11th of Dec. before being caused to step up its pace east briefly from that point through the 13th or 14th of December.
 
 ... With much research, together with observation of the idea, I have recognized that in fact both of these if more general modes of colder air's both movement looked at together with distribution, more latitudinal and more longitudinal, can be appreciated as occurring cyclically. The more longitudinal element of this movement and distribution being a bit more variable, while with that more latitudinal holding to a much more readily discernibleinner-seasonalcycle of general expansion of cold south followed by general retraction or regress of cold more back north. This with the recognition of the general timing connected to these two more basic cycles of colder air's both movement looked at together with distribution of course being certainly fairly useful where considering the idea of at very least, general forecasting.

The basic idea here more latitudinal, being that where and when cold is in general regress, or recession modemore northward and more back toward its main higher latitudes source regions and areasits tending to consolidate and build its basic volume and depth, substantially, i. e. much more so than where and when it's "expanding", or moving and spreading more southward more into the main mid-latitudesto of course either whether meet with warmer and more moisture laden air, or work to generate various degrees of ridging. This, with the pace of colder air's more basic progress more eastward more longitudinally looked at otherwise, being connected more to / associated more with, either whether the main more longitudinal element of frontal generation or the degree of amplification where looking at different main ridging.
 
No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.  Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture  certainly open to discussion.


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#4
richard mann

Posted 05 December 2016 - 08:23 AM

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.. Perhaps a quick check of and where looking at what I've projected here just above where considering the initial days of the broader timeframe that I'd identified. ?
 
The fuller Northern Hemispheric scope at 500mbs, near to 72 hours ago / more current.  

Same idea at both 850mbs and 300mbs.
 850mbs  72 hours / more current.  
300mbs  72 hours / more current.
 
Or where and with otherwise perhaps looking at the basic "Freezing levels", at different main pressure-height levels.  -  https://www.ventusky.com/?p=37;179;1&l=freezing&t=20161129/21&w=0AdAeyk2A
 
.. Drag the main representation showing at this site linked to here just above, to a different main center perhaps. And then check the basic "zoom" potential, before beginning to animate the changing broader scenario, 3-hourly, where moving forward.

 

".. broader main cold's regress with increased consolidation north, with general slowdown east more longitudinally." (more condensed, paraphrased.)


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#5
happ

Posted 05 December 2016 - 08:55 AM

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.. Perhaps a quick check of and where looking at what I've projected here just above where considering the initial days of the broader timeframe that I'd identified. ?
 
The fuller Northern Hemispheric scope at 500mbs, near to 72 hours ago / more current.  

Same idea at both 850mbs and 300mbs.
 850mbs  72 hours / more current.  
300mbs  72 hours / more current.
 
Or where and with otherwise perhaps looking at the basic "Freezing levels", at different main pressure-height levels.  -  https://www.ventusky.com/?p=37;179;1&l=freezing&t=20161129/21&w=0AdAeyk2A
 
.. Drag the main representation showing at this site linked to here just above, to a different main center perhaps. And then check the basic "zoom" potential, before beginning to animate the changing broader scenario, 3-hourly, where moving forward.

 

".. broader main cold's regress with increased consolidation north, with general slowdown east more longitudinally." (more condensed, paraphrased.)

 

Richard, thanks for the great sites like Ventusky B)



#6
richard mann

Posted 05 December 2016 - 11:10 AM

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Richard, ..
 
Looks like the ULL stays mainly north of California but w/ good rainfall this week in NorCal. Even Blue Canyon [5000'] is forecast rain instead of snow but it is all good anyway.

 

hey "happ". .. What's up.?
 
Yeh, with what I'm looking at where considering both of these two main cycles, i. e. more at how they've both played out one relative to the other more to this point this colder season, along with also how I except that they'll be evolving where looked at one set with the other, .. more primarily, it looks as if the main more latitudinal both expansion and regress of cold (more inner-seasonal.) has been, and well stay, fairly well definedas in with our seeing (at least here more south.) some fairly basic periods of colder then warmer periods, respectively. This with then, and certainly of note where looking at the idea of a "continued" (?) general relief following the draught, the main more longitudinal element of main cold's potential, also appearing to be sitting generally pretty well set and in line with a much more conducive to decent precip. pattern where looking the ideas of its both "slow-down" set against more "assertive" periods of movement more eastward.

 

Yes, rainfall in parts of NorCal during Oct/ Nov exceeded levels going back to the 1970's. Considering artic air, modified or direct, December 1990 stands out as a major freeze.


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#7
richard mann

Posted 13 December 2016 - 12:23 AM

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 At this point main colder air mass looked at more broadlyfuller Northern Hemispheric scope, across the board from east to westis sitting near to its fullest point of recession, and so, also, to its most consolidated north, where looked at more latitudinally. This with its having been in general regress more northward since back on the 1st or 2nd of December. 
 
… If not perhaps clear here, I'm in fact referring to one of two main elements of a recurring, more "inner-seasonal" and more "near-monthly", fuller cycle, of main colder air's more latitudinal distribution that I've noted with having observed and studied; .. for half of this cycle main cold's being caused to move and spread or expand, daily, steadily more southward. This with then where looking at its second half, broader main cold's opposite more general retraction or regression, more back north.
 
With this "regress", ... 
 
{ .. More essentially here, and where looking at this idea more specifically, an opposite retraction, of broader cold, back more toward its main higher latitudes source regions and areas, northhaving taken place over a period of approximately two weeks, and following an equally long period of expansion or movement and spread, daily more southward.}
 
 .. and even with its having been working against the current more general, more seasonal, expansion of cold into the main mid-latitudes of course taking place at this seasonal point, warmer and more moisture laden air has been being allowed greater general migration access northward. 
 
And with the culmination of this regress more, beginning on the 15th of Dec., main cold will (should.?) start to move and spread, each day, noticeably more southward; .. this, with this general expansion of coldmore inner-seasonalbeing caused to continue through to 28th or 29th of December.
 
This more latitudinal element of colder air's more general distribution, while where looked at otherwise more longitudinally, main cold is caused to "slow" its current more assertive pace east, beginning on the 14th or 15th, with continuing to do so for 4 or 5 days, and before on the 19th or 20th beginning to move through a period of more "stepped up" pace east again, even progressively more, also through to the 28th or 29th of December.
 
No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.  Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture  certainly open to discussion.


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#8
richard mann

Posted 13 December 2016 - 08:52 PM

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https://www.ventusky.com/?p=37;179;1&l=freezing&t=20161213/21&w=0AdAeyk2A


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#9
richard mann

Posted 22 December 2016 - 10:44 PM

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.... main cold will... move and spread, each day, not[ably] more southward... continu[ing] through to 28th or 29th of December.
 
This more latitudinal element of colder air's more general distribution, while where looked at otherwise more longitudinally... on the 19th or 20th beginning to move through a period of more "stepped up" pace east again, even progressively more, also through to the 28th or 29th of December. 
@

 
Yes / No. ?
 
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=37;179;1&l=freezing&t=20161221/21&w=0AdAeyk2A

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml
 
http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-2100B.jpg
http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-0300.jpg
(source .. http://www.fvalk.com/day image.htm)


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#10
richard mann

Posted 28 December 2016 - 09:10 PM

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 At this point main colder air looked more broadlyfuller Northern Hemispheric scope, across the board from east to westhas completed its most recent general expansion more southwardhaving begun back on the 15th of December.
 
And so as such, will begin to recede or regress back more northward, with continuing to do so daily, from this point more forward through until Jan. 12th.
 
This more latitudinal element of colder air's broader movement and distribution, while where looked at more longitudinally, main cold is caused to slow its progress more eastward dailywhere set against its general pace east over the past week or sofor the next 10 days or so, before beginning to move through a relatively short period of more stepped up movement east again, on the 9th or 10 of January. Culminating on the 12th or 13th of January.
 
 
No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.  Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture certainly open to discussion.


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#11
happ

Posted 30 December 2016 - 12:14 PM

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Richard,

 

Snow is coming your way!

 

NWS_SACRAMENTO

As of right now, temperatures this cold could support snow levels
  around 500 ft in the Northern Sacramento Valley to 1000-1500 ft 
  over the Sierra. Unfortunately, precipitation amounts are still 
  very much uncertain but our confidence is growing that many low 
  elevation communities not used to seeing snow may get at least a 
  dusting on Tuesday.
 



#12
richard mann

Posted 08 January 2017 - 12:51 AM

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 hey yeh "happ". 

 

Just getting to this that you'd dropped up here above. Which, in fact did take place to a large extent, if with the main snow levels element pointed to suggested not having made it to quite so low. More specifically here, with no snow having fallen more here where I am at 1750 ft., and levels only really having made it down to 2000 ft or so. 

 

I'd been looking at this set up's having been brought about of course, in line with what I've projected broader main colder air mass wise back on the 29th of December. This with what you'd pointed to having taken place both with main cold having at the time more only, just started to, both at the same time, recede, more northward, and slow, its pace eastfrom what it had been previous to then.

 

The general regress of cold more "back north" at this more seasonal point, of course being a relative idea, i. e. set against an if only more steady-state building of cold post the winter solstice, and with this idea main cold's where looked at more generally / over-all, still expanding its domain.

 

And then with these ideas, my also looking at that, more basic, more "post Nino" perspective, that with the way things have set up this year (basic patterning. / cold to warmer.), the main and most notable idea both having been and being, the more specific  longitudinal paths more broad, that main cold has been taking south, …

 

More essentially here, and where considering the West, .. down through the nearer Eastern Pacific and just off the greater Coast. And with this idea's (advent's.) having been the case repeated with each main turning of what I view as a more "inner-seasonal" cycle where looking at the more basic distribution of cold / colder air, more latitudinally. This, with those different main path-linesor the places where cold has been being directed more longitudinally southalso having been being dictated by the timing of either slower and quicker movement where considering the variation in the pace where looking at main cold's general progress more eastward more specifically this year.

 

….. this, set with that idea that there is still plenty of more abundant moisture generation in and through the tropics, i. e. able to migrate / press more northward to be met by that cold.

 

..  More at this point of course, The main Sacramento NWS WFO is pointing to a major system with express type avenues set to set up to deliver heavier precip. in from out over the Pacific. Widespread flooding, "Atmospheric River", ect.

 

The main factors / element lending to it, relative to and where looking at (and to consider of.) what I've projected, being, that main coldper my set of projections, both more latitudinal and longitudinalis still "retracting" north, by degrees daily, relatively, this while at the same time, moving relative slowing, if about to pick up its pace, east.


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#13
richard mann

Posted 11 January 2017 - 12:29 AM

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At this point main colder airmasslooked at across the board, from east to west, Fuller Northern Hemispherehas completed its fuller regress more northward, and [so] is set to begin to expandor move and spreaddaily more southward where considering a more inter-seasonal cycle* connected to and where looking at its main more latitudinal distribution potential. This general expansion of cold set to continue through until the 25th of January.
 
This, while at the same time more longitudinally, main colder air is caused to continue its current more assertive pace eastbegun back on the 9th or sothrough the 12th. This with then from the 13th through to the 18th or so of January main cold's being caused to slow daily, fairly steadily, before from that point forward being caused to step up its main pace east again daily through to the 28th of January.
 
* .. More essentially here, .. a regular cycle, occurring irrespective and independent of season, and of approximately two weeks of "expansion"or more basic movement and spreadof main cold more southward down and out from its main higher latitude sources to the north and into the mid-latitudes, followed by approximately two weeks of regression, or "retraction" of colder air, more back northward, and during which it is not tapped from, but more left to consolidate within those main source regions and areas. 
 
No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.  Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture certainly open to discussion.


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#14
richard mann

Posted 24 January 2017 - 04:46 PM

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At this point main colder airmass looked at across the boardfrom east to west, fuller Northern Hemisphereis near to having completed its most recent more inner-seasonal general expansion or movement and spread, southwardoutward and down from its main higher latitude source regions and areas and more into the main mid-latitudes.

 

 http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

 http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-0000.jpg
 
17011112z 012412z nhem 850.gif
17011112z 012412z nhem 500.gif
17011312z 012412z nhem 300.gif   (Gif loops. Allow time for each to load in fully.)
 
This movement and spread of colder air south more inner-seasonally, certainly having been in line and having taken place synonymous with the concurrent main more seasonal expansion of cold southward out and down from it main sources still being maintained at this point.
 
And, with this current more inner-seasonal expansion of cold having followed an approximately two-week long period of strong "consolidation" of cold north having occurred in line with main cold's more northward recession, more inner-seasonal, from the Dec. 29th through to the 12th of January. This with that recession of cold having taken place in the face of or with also accounting for the main and general more seasonal spread of main cold more southward at that time.
 
16122900z 17011112z nhem 850.gif
16122900z 17011112z nhem 500.gif
16122900z 17011100z nhem 300.gif
 
.. Beginning tomorrow, the 25th, main cold will start to regress back northward, with continuing to do so though the first week of February.  
 
This, with where looked at more longitudinally, main colder air's being caused to slow its current more stepped up pace and progress more eastward, from the 28th of January and forward through to near the 7th of February.
 

No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.  Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture certainly open to discussion.


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#15
richard mann

Posted 07 February 2017 - 02:11 PM

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At this point main cold airmass looked at more across the board (Full Northern Hemispheric scope.) has completed its most recent more inner-seasonal regress more northward. And with this idea, is set to begin to expand, or more and spread, daily more southward again through the 21st of February.
 

This more latitudinal distribution of main colder air, while during this same general period where looking otherwise at its more longitudinal potential, main cold's with and if more at this point moving at a relatively slow pace east, beginning tomorrow or the next day being caused to pick up its main movement and pace more eastern for a few days, through the 10th, before more post the 10th to slow daily more again, through to near Feb. 18th.

 
 
No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.  Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture certainly open to discussion.


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#16
Kvnharb

Posted 12 February 2017 - 12:14 AM

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Go and watch my video and subscribe when I get 50 subscribers I will have a contest plus if you comment that you found me on here I will mention you in a video. https://youtu.be/sY_SUQ1LYgs

#17
richard mann

Posted 18 February 2017 - 11:51 PM

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So.
 
.. As I'd estimated. Colder airmass is in fact at this point, still moving and spreading [daily, progressively] more southward.  @
 
Set to begin to regress, relative to the idea more general, in a few days. 
 
This, with also as I've suspected it mightsuggested and pointed to within my most recent set of projections (both more latitudinally along with more longitudinally focused.)at this point having begun to move more assertively eastward, following an extended period of slow-down east.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml


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