Tom Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 The pattern remains active as yet another system is poised to target the Upper Midwest with a decent snow storm for parts of MN/WI/U.P. Looks like Stormgeek is in line for a high end advisory event. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112012/gfs_asnow_ncus_17.png Another weaker system track a bit farther south and paints some snow for SD/IA/S WI/S MN.. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112012/gfs_asnow_ncus_26.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 12z GGEM...colder solution and bringing more snow... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016112012/gem_asnow_ncus_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Definitely looking to be a fun week! Once the energy comes on shore we should hopefully get a better/more consistent idea of what will happen. Looks like the 0C 850's may come close to splitting the twin cities again. However, I should be on the cold side for a change! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Yesterday it was looking like the black Friday system was falling apart. Now its staying together. Could be first snows for some of us. Too bad Ill be out of state. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 12z Euro with the 850 0C line down to S WI... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112012/ecmwf_T850_us_4.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 As of now, rain is looking likely for me for Thanksgiving, along with snowshowers mixing in. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Y'all know where I'll be Thursday, so there's a better chance up there of seeing at least some light snow to add to the festive mood! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 A few friends called me up from New York and told me that snow was flying all over the place there yesterday. Even NYC saw flakes. Some in higher terrain saw 6"+. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 18z GFS drove the low south a good amount into Iowa. I'm liking that idea as cold air wraps in earlier. It also looks the NAM went south as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Snow maps from 18z run? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 0z GFS north from 18z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 GFS still showing a pretty healthy snow for the Northwoods of Wisco and near MSP/GoSaints area.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112106/gfs_asnow_ncus_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 12z NAM... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016112112/namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 @ 12km NAM Huge diff in Nebraska from GFS Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 @ 12km NAM Huge diff in Nebraska from GFS Hopefully this is a year when the models trend snowier/colder instead of vise/versa like last year! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Heading up to Red Wing (near Rochester) on the 23rd for Thanksgiving. Looks like I'll miss the snow itself looking forward to seeing it on the ground though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Heading up to Red Wing (near Rochester) on the 23rd for Thanksgiving. Looks like I'll miss the snow itself looking forward to seeing it on the ground though!If there is snow OTG when I get back on the 30th, won't be to disappointed also. The beauty of the landscape is what gets me this time of year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 12z GFS tracking the first SLP south this run through C IL/C IN... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112112/gfs_asnow_ncus_12.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 12z GFS tracking the first SLP south this run through C IL/C IN... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112112/gfs_asnow_ncus_12.pngThat is 3" IMBY! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 12z GFS tracking the first SLP south this run through C IL/C IN... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112112/gfs_asnow_ncus_12.pngWould be a decent storm if we didnt switch to rain tomorrow night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Would be a decent storm if we didnt switch to rain tomorrow nightHopefully the 0C boundary layer can trend south. Southerly winds won't help though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Hopefully the 0C boundary layer can trend south. Southerly winds won't help though.Ya this time of year I would lean towards a sloppy dusting on the ground at the end if that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 That is 3" IMBY! Or more?? GFS is letting you and I get in the game during the next few weeks. Power-up that shovel buddy 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Or more?? GFS is letting you and I get in the game during the next few weeks. Power-up that shovel buddy 20161121 GFS 6z 15day snowfall.PNGWill do, indeed. Impressive stuff. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 This is one potent system coming out of AZ and heading towards the central Plains. I got pounded by heavy downpours, hail and high winds out here! Crazy system. The central Rockies are finally getting a pretty good back to back dumping of snow. They need it bad, it has been a slow start to the ski season out there. When I drove through in the beginning of November, the trails were bare brown, some spots were making their own snow. 18z NAM... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016112118/namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 If this snowfall can stick around for parts of the Upper Midwest that don't have any snow OTG right now, it would be a good heavy/wet snow to start a good base. That powder stuff settles way to much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 Looks like Stormgeek is under a low end advisory... http://www.weather.gov/images/mpx/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=14247 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 How's the snow in MSP?? Gosaints getting any action??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 How's the snow in MSP?? Gosaints getting any action???Wet.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 Rain in minneapolis as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 So far, overcast weather IMBY for Thanksgiving and chilly readings. Rain/Snow mix for Thanksgiving Eve, although, roads will remain wet, not white. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted November 22, 2016 Report Share Posted November 22, 2016 No snow here yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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