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Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

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#1
hlcater

Posted 21 November 2016 - 06:12 PM

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Decided to start a new thread for systems beyond 5 days. Currently we are heading into an active storm pattern to open up December and a few of those could be respectable snow producers for areas of the sub. Let's Discuss. (may add maps later, on iPad at the moment)


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#2
jaster220

Posted 22 November 2016 - 05:39 AM

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I saw Tom's post, but I actually think this is a good compromise thread between systems that have gotten close enough to warrant their own thread, and those that look promising @ d10+  :)


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#3
Tom

Posted 22 November 2016 - 06:11 AM

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We'll roll with this thread for systems 5+ days out.  12z EPS came in and they take the first system NW towards MSP...second storm still in the 4 corners on the 1st...

 

 

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_8.png

 

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_11.png

 

 

GEFS same thing, but have the second piece coming up the Apps...

 

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_29.png

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_38.png



#4
Tony

Posted 22 November 2016 - 06:31 AM

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This one has Potential but cold air is definitely lacking. Will probably end up being a cold/wet storm except for parts of WI/MI. Still have plenty of time to see this one through.

 

Looking forward to tracking storms this year!

Attached Files



#5
Tom

Posted 22 November 2016 - 08:27 AM

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I'm noticing the system that we are tracking into the early part of next week, focusing in on the 28th/29th storm, it's correlating well with the powerful storm that hit WA on Oct 15th which tracked into WA ushering 103mph winds on shore.

 

12z GFS showing the storm targeting WA again...42 days later, but not nearly as potent, nonetheless, it fits the pattern...another piece of energy should follow its heels and hit farther south along the west coast towards Cali.  Not sure how this second piece will interact, if there is any interaction, or if the main show will be with the Upper Midwest bomb.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_wus_15.png

 

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png



#6
Tom

Posted 22 November 2016 - 08:32 AM

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Within the next 1-2 days, we will more than likely start a storm thread for the 28th/29th system...I'm feeling confident enough that this will be a large impacting storm for the northern tier of the sub-forum.  What happens with the secondary energy down near the Gulf is another story.  Would be nice for it to get "picked up" by the occluding low in the Upper Midwest.



#7
Tom

Posted 22 November 2016 - 08:36 AM

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That is one "screaming" jet stream...

 

gfs_uv250_us_35.png



#8
gosaints

Posted 22 November 2016 - 08:59 AM

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Storms showinng up on the GFS are all marginal for winter weather



#9
NEJeremy

Posted 22 November 2016 - 09:00 AM

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It's funny how quickly things go downhill. A couple of days ago it looked like a foot or more of snow for a big chunk of my area next week, and now nothing but cold rain and a ton of wind unless you go up to ND. But hey, there's still the storm showing up 2 weeks from now on the GFS!



#10
Tom

Posted 22 November 2016 - 09:06 AM

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12z GGEM...still has the storm (s)...

 

gem_asnow_ncus_40.png



#11
Andrew NE

Posted 22 November 2016 - 09:11 AM

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It's funny how quickly things go downhill. A couple of days ago it looked like a foot or more of snow for a big chunk of my area next week, and now nothing but cold rain and a ton of wind unless you go up to ND. But hey, there's still the storm showing up 2 weeks from now on the GFS!

Touche Jeremy, hoping things can come back around over the next few days, would be awesome to get a nice storm the first part of December.



#12
james1976

Posted 22 November 2016 - 09:13 AM

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Not a big fan of this thread. Would rather keep it in the month threads. Just my opinion.
Models are a mess. Lol
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#13
Tom

Posted 22 November 2016 - 09:24 AM

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12z GEFS showing a strong indication the 28th/29th system will end up becoming a very strong occluding low near the Lakes...

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_26.png

 

 

Sits and spins for 3 days...

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_34.png

 

 

What happens with the GOM energy is still up in the air...ensemble guidance takes the energy up through the Apps...

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_37.png



#14
Illinois_WX

Posted 22 November 2016 - 09:25 AM

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No hate toward NWLinn for starting it but I agree with this. It gets too confusing imo. I think we should just stick with the one, just my opinion.


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#15
Tom

Posted 22 November 2016 - 09:46 AM

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Lower Lakes/Midwest snow potential with the second system???

 

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_37.png

 

gfs-ens_T2m_us_41.png


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#16
NEJeremy

Posted 22 November 2016 - 09:57 AM

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occluding low=bad. Screws everything up down the road for next week. Don't really want to see the Appalachians or the east coast getting a storm because of that.



#17
Niko

Posted 22 November 2016 - 09:57 AM

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So, what is the difference between this thread and the other thread..."Preliminary Discussion for upcoming 2016-17 Fall and Winter  season"? I think too many similar threads will cause a confusion among posters. Lets try to keep it simple folks. Just my 2 cents. Carry on.



#18
Tom

Posted 22 November 2016 - 10:11 AM

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So, what is the difference between this thread and the other thread..."Preliminary Discussion for upcoming 2016-17 Fall and Winter season"? I think too many similar threads will cause a confusion among posters. Lets try to keep it simple folks. Just my 2 cents. Carry on.


That one is more for seasonal/monthly discussions. I figure we won't be using it as much as we get into December as tracking storm systems becomes more frequent.

If more ppl decide it's to complicated, I'll take it down and move them into our monthly discussion.

#19
jaster220

Posted 22 November 2016 - 10:32 AM

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Not a big fan of this thread. Would rather keep it in the month threads. Just my opinion.
Models are a mess. Lol

No hate toward NWLinn for starting it but I agree with this. It gets too confusing imo. I think we should just stick with the one, just my opinion.

 

That's the rub though. As soon as we pass mid-month, these images and disco peeps start up about the 384hr GFS is for the following month, for which there isn't yet a thread. I'll let Tom sort this out LOL, that's what he's paid for.  ;)


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#20
Tom

Posted 22 November 2016 - 10:36 AM

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That's the rub though. As soon as we pass mid-month, these images and disco peeps start up about the 384hr GFS is for the following month, for which there isn't yet a thread. I'll let Tom sort this out LOL, that's what he's paid for.  ;)

I wish, all volunteer work here!  I love it though, the weather is a passion of mine.

 

Meantime, 12z Euro seems to want to spin up a snow system for some NE peeps Day 7???

 

ecmwf_T850_ncus_7.png

 

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_ncus_7.png



#21
jaster220

Posted 22 November 2016 - 10:44 AM

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@ Tom

 

:P was j/k but we all want to get paid to do what we love, right? If only. 

 

@ Euro

 

Holy smoked, Nebraska!  I so love windy systems - totally jealous, even if it's just a model map  :lol:

 

EDIT: It resembles the great Armistice Day Storm of 1940 but a bit west:  https://en.wikipedia...ce_Day_Blizzard


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#22
jaster220

Posted 22 November 2016 - 10:59 AM

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Tom said:

 

 

 

Sits and spins for 3 days...

 

This would be the 2nd lingering spinner inside 2 weeks. I would love to see that be a trend this winter tbh. Our best and perhaps only shot here in SMI to beat bliz of '78 is to get a strong storm come north (like '78 or '99) then stall out just to our N/NE spinning and dumping LES on top of the system snows. The Feb '85 spinner brought Battle Creek 24" of LES only. It didn't originate south of us, more to the west iirc. A 12+ dumping plus twice that in LES from a stalled LP in the right position is the next "Dream Storm" here. I just don't see the miracle merger that was '78 repeating in my lifetime. 


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#23
hlcater

Posted 22 November 2016 - 11:14 AM

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That's the rub though. As soon as we pass mid-month, these images and disco peeps start up about the 384hr GFS is for the following month, for which there isn't yet a thread. I'll let Tom sort this out LOL, that's what he's paid for.  ;)

its to tom whether he wants to keep it or not. I wouldn't be offended either way.


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#24
jaster220

Posted 22 November 2016 - 11:25 AM

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CPC not biting yet on wind or SN

 


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#25
jaster220

Posted 22 November 2016 - 11:44 AM

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JMA says wassup! (Gotta love it  :)

 


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#26
Niko

Posted 22 November 2016 - 11:54 AM

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JMA says wassup! (Gotta love it  :)

 

attachicon.gif20161122 JMA 12z 192hr surf & 500mb.png

I've always liked this model, no matter what it shows.

 

Btw: if that map corroborates, then, look-out. :D



#27
jaster220

Posted 22 November 2016 - 12:09 PM

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@ Tom

 

Correct me if I'm off here, but it's the HLB causing these to spin? 

 

Posted by grace:

 

 


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#28
Tom

Posted 22 November 2016 - 12:24 PM

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@ Tom

Correct me if I'm off here, but it's the HLB causing these to spin?

Posted by grace:

20161122 Euro 12z 500mb & Post about block.PNG


HLB??? I believe it's that nasty looking block near or just N/NE of Hudson Bay. Looks to be a dominate feature over the next 2 weeks. Almost looks like a west-based negative NAO. Those scenarios have been great for our region.

#29
Tom

Posted 22 November 2016 - 01:17 PM

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12z EPS close call for E NE folks...

 

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_7.png

 

 

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_8.png

 

 

 

The storm digging into the 4 corners Day 10, sparks interest as there should be cold infiltrated into the pattern and not just storm induced cold.   To me, it correlates well with the Oct 19-21st stationary boundary that stretched from the TX Pan Handle region up into S IN.  BTW, nice SE ridge building over where the drought has been dominant upstream from the system.

 

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_11.png

 

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_11.png

 

 

 



#30
jaster220

Posted 22 November 2016 - 01:31 PM

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HLB??? I believe it's that nasty looking block near or just N/NE of Hudson Bay. Looks to be a dominate feature over the next 2 weeks. Almost looks like a west-based negative NAO. Those scenarios have been great for our region.

 

High Latitude Blocking, so yeah, what you said  ;)


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#31
NEJeremy

Posted 22 November 2016 - 02:40 PM

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18Z GFS not budging on it's strong closed off solution. ND with a foot of snow



#32
Tom

Posted 22 November 2016 - 03:32 PM

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18z GEFS shifted a tad SE...it's expected that there will be tons of shifts back and forth...tbh, these type of events are more interesting to track as models don't have a real clue what to do with occluding storms.  It may very well end up where NE/SD get a good storm out of this up towards MN/WI.

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_24.png

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_32.png

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_30.png



#33
Tom

Posted 22 November 2016 - 03:47 PM

Tom

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GEFS and CFSv2 beginning to show consistency of what will be a piece of the PV coming into N Canada and substantially cooling N.A. after the 8th of December...we're going to start seeing more and more runs of Canada getting filled with plenty of sub-zero cold!

 

gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_61.png

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_61.png

 

 

 

 

CFSv2...curious to see, to what extreme, the pattern will look like beyond December 10th...

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_4.png

 

 

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_5.png

 

 

 

 

cfs-avg_T2maMean_namer_5.png



#34
GDR

Posted 22 November 2016 - 09:08 PM

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Man if you like snow the CFSv2 45day outlook is crazy loaded.
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#35
hlcater

Posted 22 November 2016 - 09:22 PM

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Man if you like snow the CFSv2 45day outlook is crazy loaded.

Link? imgur is down for me so I cant see it on there. 

 

nevermind, imgur is back and I can see it now. 


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#36
GDR

Posted 23 November 2016 - 04:48 AM

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I take it the models didn't show anything last night because man this board got quite🤔

#37
jaster220

Posted 23 November 2016 - 06:18 AM

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@ Tom

 

I want some eye candy for my holiday LOL

 

Can you snag the (old) Euro by any chance and post?

 

 

 

FYI im ignoring the regular ECM run because as of yesterday it should be no longer in production. Not sure when that change takes place on model sites. But if you lived N IN or SEMI youd wish the old 00z ECM was true 

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#38
Tom

Posted 23 November 2016 - 06:27 AM

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@ Tom

 

I want some eye candy for my holiday LOL

 

Can you snag the (old) Euro by any chance and post?

Nothing to write home about on last night's run, maybe Okwx can help you out with that old run.  For now, I don't have access to precip maps yet on the Euro.

 

After a brief "head fake" yesterday, CFSv2 hammering down with cold into the lower 48 in a La Nina-ish fashion.  EC ridging looking likely.  Can you spot the storm track???

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201612.gif

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201612.gif

 

Not surprisingly, but CFSv2 starting to see 2013-2014 type of cold brewing in western Canada Week 3-4...hopefully this comes true and we can see some phenomenal temp gradients where storms can form and produce some "fluff"! 

 

wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif


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#39
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 November 2016 - 09:04 AM

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Euro EPS control through 16. Ho hum. :-/


Attached File  eps_snow_c_east_61.png   914.36KB   0 downloads

Still not sure how you can stuff a ridge under a block and not suppress a darn thing but I'll just have to wait and see what happens I guess.

#40
GDR

Posted 23 November 2016 - 09:47 AM

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I just have a feeling winter will be a fart in the air this year!

#41
NEJeremy

Posted 23 November 2016 - 10:07 AM

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Canadian now looks like the rest of the models with no storm mid next week and the strong cut off rain maker beginning of next week



#42
Madtown

Posted 23 November 2016 - 10:45 AM

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So much to front loaded...lol. not looking good atm.

#43
jaster220

Posted 23 November 2016 - 11:08 AM

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Michigan bullseyed in the 500mb map, but ground level looks 1917-18 like!

 


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#44
GDR

Posted 23 November 2016 - 11:11 AM

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Ha ha this looks and sounds About right. Just wait until the models start showing a torch

#45
FV-Mike

Posted 23 November 2016 - 11:27 AM

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If you live and die by each model run you are going to be disappointed a lot

#46
jaster220

Posted 23 November 2016 - 12:23 PM

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-EPO to the rescue??

 


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#47
Thunder98

Posted 23 November 2016 - 12:28 PM

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North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Northern Iowa will likely be in a ice box this winter.



#48
GDR

Posted 23 November 2016 - 01:03 PM

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12z GGEM has some snow in far northern mn

#49
Madtown

Posted 23 November 2016 - 01:23 PM

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Till it changes its the same old song and dance....cold in the long range disappears as it draws near. Above average months are the rule.
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#50
Tom

Posted 23 November 2016 - 01:39 PM

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The energy for the 28th/29th system comes on shore Saturday. Nam digs it the farthest south almost into C CA. I'll prob start a thread for it tomorrow or later tonight. A lot can change so let's hang in there and see how this evolves.
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