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Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

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#51
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 November 2016 - 03:08 PM

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-EPO to the rescue??

20161123 BAM tweet on Dec -EPO.PNG


If the EPO tanks but the AO spikes, the SOI spikes and the PNA crashes, it does none of us east of the Rockies much good.

#52
GDR

Posted 23 November 2016 - 03:17 PM

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If the EPO tanks but the AO spikes, the SOI spikes and the PNA crashes, it does none of us east of the Rockies much good.

???? Explain please

#53
GDR

Posted 23 November 2016 - 04:27 PM

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We won't get any powerful storms without a lock down ridge. Too many progressive systems.

#54
Tom

Posted 23 November 2016 - 04:49 PM

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That second, stronger piece of energy digging into the 4 corners needs to be watched.  The models have put to much emphasis on the first piece that ejected north into the Upper Midwest over the last few days.  I think this energy will be a player as well.  Might have to wait until better sampling is done.

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_21.png



#55
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 November 2016 - 06:18 PM

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???? Explain please


The map Tom posted is the best explanation of what I'm saying that you can get. EPO and -PNA dump the cold off into the west but it's not sustainable to produce the effect it would have with a neutral or slightly positive pna. Also if the AO spikes positive during this time frame the cold source gets further shut off. Need the indices in their opposite states to feed/properly suppress the pattern.

#56
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 November 2016 - 06:53 PM

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See that massive block near the Aleutians? As long as its there, the pattern is screwed.


Attached File  ecmwf_mslp_sig_noram_41.png   232KB   1 downloads

#57
Tom

Posted 23 November 2016 - 07:01 PM

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See that massive block near the Aleutians? As long as its there, the pattern is screwed.


ecmwf_mslp_sig_noram_41.png

It's transient though. As long as storms come off of East Asia and track through the Bearing Sea, the storms will keep coming. Euro holds that energy in the West way to long Day 9/10 and it gets cut off. There should be a "kicker" storm on its heels.

#58
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 November 2016 - 07:26 PM

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You know I'm desperate when I'm hoping the CFS scores a coup. Lol.Attached File  cfs_snowfall_conus_2016112312_61t.png   1.15MB   0 downloads
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#59
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 November 2016 - 07:31 PM

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It's transient though. As long as storms come off of East Asia and track through the Bearing Sea, the storms will keep coming. Euro holds that energy in the West way to long Day 9/10 and it gets cut off. There should be a "kicker" storm on its heels.


My fear is that even if it does get kicked out, it just cuts and or has no relevant cold to work with. Some more recent runs of the GFS are trying to show a different look down the road but it isn't worth much at 14 days out and the Euro is still crap at 10 days. Not trying to be negative but I just think we're in a pattern delay. Kinda mutes the flip we were expecting.

#60
Money

Posted 23 November 2016 - 08:42 PM

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Both UKMET/GGEM get the 2nd system down in the low 980's in Eastern WI.

 

GFS is a bit farther east and weaker.

 

HR 144 UKMET:

 

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif



#61
Money

Posted 23 November 2016 - 08:46 PM

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GGEM trying to bring snow into OK/KS

 

prateptype.conus.png



#62
Tom

Posted 23 November 2016 - 08:50 PM

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GGEM trying to bring snow into OK/KS

 

prateptype.conus.png

That sneaky second piece has been on my radar...



#63
Money

Posted 23 November 2016 - 09:03 PM

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That sneaky second piece has been on my radar...

 

Really has no cold air to work with right now though. Need that 1st system to move out faster to get colder air down, but most models are pretty meh on snowfall with it. 

 

GFS bringing the cold down at the end of the run:

 

sfct.conus.png


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#64
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 November 2016 - 09:07 PM

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That sneaky second piece has been on my radar...


There's the suppression/energy handoff that is supposed to be present with the teleconnections we have. GFS now has the cold starved version of the same system.

#65
Tom

Posted 23 November 2016 - 09:09 PM

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Really has no cold air to work with right now though. Need that 1st system to move out faster to get colder air down, but most models are pretty meh on snowfall with it. 

 

GFS bringing the cold down at the end of the run:

 

sfct.conus.png

 

True that, if the first one doesn't move out fast enough, it'll be a waste of a storm for the second piece.  

 

The arctic air starting to fill up in Canada is starting to cycle and a piece of the PV will come on over this side of the Pole.  My target period was December 8th.  Looking good for now.  Hope we can get a snow cover in place.



#66
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 November 2016 - 09:59 PM

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True that, if the first one doesn't move out fast enough, it'll be a waste of a storm for the second piece.

The arctic air starting to fill up in Canada is starting to cycle and a piece of the PV will come on over this side of the Pole. My target period was December 8th. Looking good for now. Hope we can get a snow cover in place.


December 8th is probably a fair call. Old weather lore in the south says thunder in winter, snow in a week. I guess we'll see if it works. There will definitely be some thunder with that system on the 29th.

#67
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 November 2016 - 10:16 PM

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GEFS 00z edition. Not as horrible as I thought they would be.

Attached File  gefs_snow_ens_east_65.png   1.34MB   3 downloads

#68
Money

Posted 23 November 2016 - 10:26 PM

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Euro really bombs out the first system

979 in Minnesota

#69
Money

Posted 23 November 2016 - 10:37 PM

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Looks like it sits and spins for over 3 days

How does it look Tom?

#70
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 November 2016 - 11:18 PM

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It literally just goes up into Minnesota, slams into the block and sits there until it dies. It's strange to say but I think the Euro is an outlier here after having time to go through all the models. Still doesn't make much sense to me.

#71
Money

Posted 24 November 2016 - 04:52 AM

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Happy Thanksgiving to everyone here!

 

6z GFS:

 

prateptype_cat.conus.png

 

prateptype_cat.conus.png

 

snku_acc.conus.png



#72
Money

Posted 24 November 2016 - 04:54 AM

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The entire run:

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#73
OKwx2k4

Posted 24 November 2016 - 05:00 AM

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The entire run:

snku_acc.us_mw.png


Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family!
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#74
bud2380

Posted 24 November 2016 - 05:15 AM

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6z GFS with a nice shift west for the secondary wave next week. Interested to see how things develop from here

#75
Tom

Posted 24 November 2016 - 05:38 AM

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I'll start a storm thread for both systems since one will ultimately effect the other...28th-30th...



#76
Tom

Posted 24 November 2016 - 06:28 AM

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Slight shift east in the main trough over N.A....penetrates farther south into southern Plains towards Okwx....

 

CFSv2.z700.20161124.201612.gif

 

 

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20161124.201612.gif

 

 

 

CFSv2.NaPrec.20161124.201612.gif



#77
gosaints

Posted 24 November 2016 - 06:35 AM

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Wasnt it last year at this time that the CFS was getting ripped?

#78
Tom

Posted 24 November 2016 - 06:38 AM

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Wasnt it last year at this time that the CFS was getting ripped?

I confess, it does have a tendency to run warm, but it has been doing very well this year.  In fact, it's been beating the Euro Weeklies with the overall pattern.  I remember in 2013-14 it saw the cold coming long before any other model.  Maybe the upgrade last year or was it the year prior did the model good.


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#79
gosaints

Posted 24 November 2016 - 06:41 AM

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I confess, it does have a tendency to run warm, but it has been doing very well this year. In fact, it's been beating the Euro Weeklies with the overall pattern. I remember in 2013-14 it saw the cold coming long before any other model. Maybe the upgrade last year or was it the year prior did the model good.


Who knows...... Last winter it ended up being pretty spot on in the upper midwest at least

#80
Tom

Posted 24 November 2016 - 07:05 AM

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JMA Weeklies lining up almost exactly like the CFSv2 weeklies...this would be a winter lovers dream...both models see the trough diving into the west, blocking near Hudson bay and Greenland, jet under cutting the NE PAC ridge during Week's 1 & 2...then Week 3 & 4 it continues with the Greenland Block, but the entire pattern over N.A. may really amplify to the extreme it can go to.

 



#81
OKwx2k4

Posted 24 November 2016 - 07:10 AM

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Who knows...... Last winter it ended up being pretty spot on in the upper midwest at least


Lol. Maybe if I start talking smack about it again it will go 2 for 2. I definitely wouldn't mind a bit.
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#82
NEJeremy

Posted 24 November 2016 - 07:16 AM

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Can't wait for the thunderstorms on Sunday! Might have to dodge lightning while I'm up on the ladder!



#83
OKwx2k4

Posted 24 November 2016 - 07:21 AM

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Several people I have read and a couple I have talked to have said about some of my worries over the Pacific, that it is a textbook precursor to a pure and long duration arctic outbreak. If I'd have followed my top analogs forward correctly I would have already known that. Lol
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#84
Tom

Posted 24 November 2016 - 07:24 AM

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Several people I have read and a couple I have talked to have said about some of my worries over the Pacific, that it is a textbook precursor to a pure and long duration arctic outbreak. If I'd have followed my top analogs forward correctly I would have already known that. Lol

Just look at that monster Bearing Sea/Alaskan ridge poking into the Arctic...that's going to be one hellova Split Flow over the NE PAC...trough NW of Hawaii is reminiscent of that "70's show"....

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_npac_4.png

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_npac_5.png



#85
OKwx2k4

Posted 24 November 2016 - 07:29 AM

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Does that mean we get a monster bombing phaser later this season? Please? :)
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#86
Tom

Posted 24 November 2016 - 07:31 AM

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Nice to see southern Canada rebuilding its snow base so when the Arctic air hits, it can hold onto it...

 

 

 

cursnow_alaska.gif


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#87
OKwx2k4

Posted 24 November 2016 - 09:53 AM

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That system on Day 10 is looking better and better. Has been consistent for a system so far away.

#88
jaster220

Posted 24 November 2016 - 10:04 AM

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GEFS 00z edition. Not as horrible as I thought they would be.

attachicon.gifgefs_snow_ens_east_65.png

 

Ummmm....e2 PLEASE!

 

JMA Weeklies lining up almost exactly like the CFSv2 weeklies...this would be a winter lovers dream...both models see the trough diving into the west, blocking near Hudson bay and Greenland, jet under cutting the NE PAC ridge during Week's 1 & 2...then Week 3 & 4 it continues with the Greenland Block, but the entire pattern over N.A. may really amplify to the extreme it can go to.

 

Nice to see southern Canada rebuilding its snow base so when the Arctic air hits, it can hold onto it...

 

 

 

cursnow_alaska.gif

 

This is actually all lining up (playing out) really nicely for winter to set in around Dec 10th and perhaps rock the last 2/3rds of the month. I'm expectant again, LOL


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#89
NEJeremy

Posted 24 November 2016 - 10:19 AM

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Unfortunately the system for early next week looked great on all models too about 10 days out and we know how that has changed. Hopefully one of these times it'll be right

That system on Day 10 is looking better and better. Has been consistent for a system so far away.



#90
Tom

Posted 24 November 2016 - 10:26 AM

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That system on Day 10 is looking better and better. Has been consistent for a system so far away.

Indeed, once that trough becomes established and cold air penetrating south into the lower 48, could be the big storm that unloads the arctic hounds into the central/western CONUS.

 

Precip and Temp Anomalies looking good for some deep snow down south...

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_9.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_11.png

 

gfs-ens_T2m_us_62.png



#91
OKwx2k4

Posted 24 November 2016 - 10:35 AM

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Indeed, once that trough becomes established and cold air penetrating south into the lower 48, could be the big storm that unloads the arctic hounds into the central/western CONUS.

Precip and Temp Anomalies looking good for some deep snow down south...


gfs-ens_apcpna_us_9.png

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_11.png

gfs-ens_T2m_us_62.png


Not too shabby. Here's hoping it doesn't disappear before then. Every run adds another member or 2 that pulls the cold air in down here.

#92
Tom

Posted 24 November 2016 - 10:43 AM

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Not too shabby. Here's hoping it doesn't disappear before then. Every run adds another member or 2 that pulls the cold air in down here.

I really believe there will be a storm around your region as it fits the pattern.  Just really hope this can turn into a wound up, comma shape, true winter storm that can share the wealth and finally lay down a decent snow cover.


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#93
jaster220

Posted 25 November 2016 - 06:16 AM

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:)

 


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#94
jaster220

Posted 25 November 2016 - 06:17 AM

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I like the way this sounds 

 


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#95
Tom

Posted 25 November 2016 - 06:29 AM

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Saw a met post this regarding the latest JMA Weeklies and how they resemble Dec '83 over the next month...might not be to that extreme, I think we will see model volatility going forward.  I find that when models begin to see a hint of an extreme shift in the pattern, esp over N.A., as we start getting closer modeling flip flops.

There is another burst in SSW taking place at 30mb and the MJO forecasts are for it to trend into Phase 1 to open Dec and maybe into the "Null" phase.  N

 

CyDT_ZBVEAAoUQQ.jpg

 

CyDUqaeUUAAXaEU.jpg

 

 

Day 6, GFS showing the Siberian High blossing...

 

gfs_t10_nh_f168.png

 

 

Day 10...

 

gfs_t10_nh_f240.png

 

pole30_nh.gif

 

 

 

The coldest air of the season will bleed across the Pole into N.A. over the next 7-10 days.  I can't see how this won't help the lower 48 get into a wintry pattern.



#96
jaster220

Posted 25 November 2016 - 06:53 AM

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Several people I have read and a couple I have talked to have said about some of my worries over the Pacific, that it is a textbook precursor to a pure and long duration arctic outbreak. If I'd have followed my top analogs forward correctly I would have already known that. Lol

 

And it apparently is not just you questioning it, but appears to maybe fly in the face of the vaunted BSR??

 

grace posted:

 


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#97
jaster220

Posted 25 November 2016 - 07:01 AM

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@ Tom

 

Lookin' good buddy! Now u gotta get home and decorate your place for holiday CHEERS!  ;)


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#98
NEJeremy

Posted 25 November 2016 - 07:02 AM

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Ha! The 06Z GFS now doesn't even have a storm next weekend. The next big storm is..... 12/8 so only 2 weeks away. The GFS led the way on this cut off low crap we're going to get the beginning of the week, we'll see if it's on to something else now.



#99
Tom

Posted 25 November 2016 - 07:02 AM

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Right around the 8th of Dec, the coldest anomalies relative to avg begin to shift into N.A.

#100
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 November 2016 - 07:07 AM

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And it apparently is not just you questioning it, but appears to maybe fly in the face of the vaunted BSR??

grace posted:

20161125 grace post on bsr.PNG


There's just some weird stuff going on right now for sure. What's funny though, right now, is that the Euro is still a massive outlier even going beyond day 5. It doesn't really know what to do after the block over the Pacific relaxes and drifts back east. I'm riding a blend of the GFS, GEFS, and CFS going through the next 2 weeks. They have been dominating in the stratosphere and mjo forecasts for 2 months solid now.
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