NEJeremy Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Canadian now looks like the rest of the models with no storm mid next week and the strong cut off rain maker beginning of next week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 So much to front loaded...lol. not looking good atm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Michigan bullseyed in the 500mb map, but ground level looks 1917-18 like! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Ha ha this looks and sounds About right. Just wait until the models start showing a torch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 If you live and die by each model run you are going to be disappointed a lot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 -EPO to the rescue?? 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Northern Iowa will likely be in a ice box this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 12z GGEM has some snow in far northern mn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Till it changes its the same old song and dance....cold in the long range disappears as it draws near. Above average months are the rule. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 The energy for the 28th/29th system comes on shore Saturday. Nam digs it the farthest south almost into C CA. I'll prob start a thread for it tomorrow or later tonight. A lot can change so let's hang in there and see how this evolves. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 -EPO to the rescue?? 20161123 BAM tweet on Dec -EPO.PNGIf the EPO tanks but the AO spikes, the SOI spikes and the PNA crashes, it does none of us east of the Rockies much good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 If the EPO tanks but the AO spikes, the SOI spikes and the PNA crashes, it does none of us east of the Rockies much good. ???? Explain please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 We won't get any powerful storms without a lock down ridge. Too many progressive systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 That second, stronger piece of energy digging into the 4 corners needs to be watched. The models have put to much emphasis on the first piece that ejected north into the Upper Midwest over the last few days. I think this energy will be a player as well. Might have to wait until better sampling is done. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112312/gfs_z500_vort_us_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 ???? Explain pleaseThe map Tom posted is the best explanation of what I'm saying that you can get. EPO and -PNA dump the cold off into the west but it's not sustainable to produce the effect it would have with a neutral or slightly positive pna. Also if the AO spikes positive during this time frame the cold source gets further shut off. Need the indices in their opposite states to feed/properly suppress the pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 See that massive block near the Aleutians? As long as its there, the pattern is screwed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 See that massive block near the Aleutians? As long as its there, the pattern is screwed. ecmwf_mslp_sig_noram_41.pngIt's transient though. As long as storms come off of East Asia and track through the Bearing Sea, the storms will keep coming. Euro holds that energy in the West way to long Day 9/10 and it gets cut off. There should be a "kicker" storm on its heels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 You know I'm desperate when I'm hoping the CFS scores a coup. Lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 It's transient though. As long as storms come off of East Asia and track through the Bearing Sea, the storms will keep coming. Euro holds that energy in the West way to long Day 9/10 and it gets cut off. There should be a "kicker" storm on its heels.My fear is that even if it does get kicked out, it just cuts and or has no relevant cold to work with. Some more recent runs of the GFS are trying to show a different look down the road but it isn't worth much at 14 days out and the Euro is still crap at 10 days. Not trying to be negative but I just think we're in a pattern delay. Kinda mutes the flip we were expecting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Both UKMET/GGEM get the 2nd system down in the low 980's in Eastern WI. GFS is a bit farther east and weaker. HR 144 UKMET: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 GGEM trying to bring snow into OK/KS http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112400/132/prateptype.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 GGEM trying to bring snow into OK/KS http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112400/132/prateptype.conus.pngThat sneaky second piece has been on my radar... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 That sneaky second piece has been on my radar... Really has no cold air to work with right now though. Need that 1st system to move out faster to get colder air down, but most models are pretty meh on snowfall with it. GFS bringing the cold down at the end of the run: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112400/384/sfct.conus.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 That sneaky second piece has been on my radar...There's the suppression/energy handoff that is supposed to be present with the teleconnections we have. GFS now has the cold starved version of the same system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Really has no cold air to work with right now though. Need that 1st system to move out faster to get colder air down, but most models are pretty meh on snowfall with it. GFS bringing the cold down at the end of the run: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112400/384/sfct.conus.png True that, if the first one doesn't move out fast enough, it'll be a waste of a storm for the second piece. The arctic air starting to fill up in Canada is starting to cycle and a piece of the PV will come on over this side of the Pole. My target period was December 8th. Looking good for now. Hope we can get a snow cover in place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 True that, if the first one doesn't move out fast enough, it'll be a waste of a storm for the second piece. The arctic air starting to fill up in Canada is starting to cycle and a piece of the PV will come on over this side of the Pole. My target period was December 8th. Looking good for now. Hope we can get a snow cover in place.December 8th is probably a fair call. Old weather lore in the south says thunder in winter, snow in a week. I guess we'll see if it works. There will definitely be some thunder with that system on the 29th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 GEFS 00z edition. Not as horrible as I thought they would be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Euro really bombs out the first system 979 in Minnesota Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Looks like it sits and spins for over 3 days How does it look Tom? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 It literally just goes up into Minnesota, slams into the block and sits there until it dies. It's strange to say but I think the Euro is an outlier here after having time to go through all the models. Still doesn't make much sense to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Happy Thanksgiving to everyone here! 6z GFS: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112406/126/prateptype_cat.conus.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112406/138/prateptype_cat.conus.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112406/162/snku_acc.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 The entire run: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112406/384/snku_acc.us_mw.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 The entire run: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112406/384/snku_acc.us_mw.pngHappy Thanksgiving to you and your family! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 6z GFS with a nice shift west for the secondary wave next week. Interested to see how things develop from here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 I'll start a storm thread for both systems since one will ultimately effect the other...28th-30th... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Slight shift east in the main trough over N.A....penetrates farther south into southern Plains towards Okwx.... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20161124.201612.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20161124.201612.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20161124.201612.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Wasnt it last year at this time that the CFS was getting ripped? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Wasnt it last year at this time that the CFS was getting ripped?I confess, it does have a tendency to run warm, but it has been doing very well this year. In fact, it's been beating the Euro Weeklies with the overall pattern. I remember in 2013-14 it saw the cold coming long before any other model. Maybe the upgrade last year or was it the year prior did the model good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 I confess, it does have a tendency to run warm, but it has been doing very well this year. In fact, it's been beating the Euro Weeklies with the overall pattern. I remember in 2013-14 it saw the cold coming long before any other model. Maybe the upgrade last year or was it the year prior did the model good.Who knows...... Last winter it ended up being pretty spot on in the upper midwest at least Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 JMA Weeklies lining up almost exactly like the CFSv2 weeklies...this would be a winter lovers dream...both models see the trough diving into the west, blocking near Hudson bay and Greenland, jet under cutting the NE PAC ridge during Week's 1 & 2...then Week 3 & 4 it continues with the Greenland Block, but the entire pattern over N.A. may really amplify to the extreme it can go to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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