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Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

hlcater

By hlcater
in East of the Rockies

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Jaycee
Jaycee

I want it to snow as much as any of you, but this is ridiculous. Think about it, there are 3 low pressure systems at play, and we're still way out. Let alone the fact the GFS showed 40" yesterday, are

Money
Money

3rd and 15 with jay cutler as qb

OKwx2k4
OKwx2k4

At a quick glance, the weeklies looked like the analog 1978. Big pretty Aleutian low, -EPO lors of blocking in the sweet spot and weekly snowstorms from January 23 to the end of the run. The run of th

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Several people I have read and a couple I have talked to have said about some of my worries over the Pacific, that it is a textbook precursor to a pure and long duration arctic outbreak. If I'd have followed my top analogs forward correctly I would have already known that. Lol

Just look at that monster Bearing Sea/Alaskan ridge poking into the Arctic...that's going to be one hellova Split Flow over the NE PAC...trough NW of Hawaii is reminiscent of that "70's show"....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016112406/cfs-avg_z500aMean_npac_4.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016112406/cfs-avg_z500aMean_npac_5.png

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

GEFS 00z edition. Not as horrible as I thought they would be.

 

attachicon.gifgefs_snow_ens_east_65.png

 

Ummmm....e2 PLEASE!

 

JMA Weeklies lining up almost exactly like the CFSv2 weeklies...this would be a winter lovers dream...both models see the trough diving into the west, blocking near Hudson bay and Greenland, jet under cutting the NE PAC ridge during Week's 1 & 2...then Week 3 & 4 it continues with the Greenland Block, but the entire pattern over N.A. may really amplify to the extreme it can go to.

 

Nice to see southern Canada rebuilding its snow base so when the Arctic air hits, it can hold onto it...

 

 

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

 

This is actually all lining up (playing out) really nicely for winter to set in around Dec 10th and perhaps rock the last 2/3rds of the month. I'm expectant again, LOL

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

That system on Day 10 is looking better and better. Has been consistent for a system so far away.

Indeed, once that trough becomes established and cold air penetrating south into the lower 48, could be the big storm that unloads the arctic hounds into the central/western CONUS.

 

Precip and Temp Anomalies looking good for some deep snow down south...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112412/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_9.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112412/gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112412/gfs-ens_T2m_us_62.png

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

Posted
Posted

Indeed, once that trough becomes established and cold air penetrating south into the lower 48, could be the big storm that unloads the arctic hounds into the central/western CONUS.

 

Precip and Temp Anomalies looking good for some deep snow down south...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112412/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_9.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112412/gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112412/gfs-ens_T2m_us_62.png

Not too shabby. Here's hoping it doesn't disappear before then. Every run adds another member or 2 that pulls the cold air in down here.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Not too shabby. Here's hoping it doesn't disappear before then. Every run adds another member or 2 that pulls the cold air in down here.

I really believe there will be a storm around your region as it fits the pattern.  Just really hope this can turn into a wound up, comma shape, true winter storm that can share the wealth and finally lay down a decent snow cover.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

:)

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

I like the way this sounds 

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Saw a met post this regarding the latest JMA Weeklies and how they resemble Dec '83 over the next month...might not be to that extreme, I think we will see model volatility going forward.  I find that when models begin to see a hint of an extreme shift in the pattern, esp over N.A., as we start getting closer modeling flip flops.

There is another burst in SSW taking place at 30mb and the MJO forecasts are for it to trend into Phase 1 to open Dec and maybe into the "Null" phase.  N

 

CyDT_ZBVEAAoUQQ.jpg

 

CyDUqaeUUAAXaEU.jpg

 

 

Day 6, GFS showing the Siberian High blossing...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_nh_f168.png

 

 

Day 10...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_nh_f240.png

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

 

 

 

The coldest air of the season will bleed across the Pole into N.A. over the next 7-10 days.  I can't see how this won't help the lower 48 get into a wintry pattern.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Several people I have read and a couple I have talked to have said about some of my worries over the Pacific, that it is a textbook precursor to a pure and long duration arctic outbreak. If I'd have followed my top analogs forward correctly I would have already known that. Lol

 

And it apparently is not just you questioning it, but appears to maybe fly in the face of the vaunted BSR??

 

grace posted:

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

@ Tom

 

Lookin' good buddy! Now u gotta get home and decorate your place for holiday CHEERS!  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

Posted
Posted

And it apparently is not just you questioning it, but appears to maybe fly in the face of the vaunted BSR??

 

grace posted:

 

20161125 grace post on bsr.PNG

There's just some weird stuff going on right now for sure. What's funny though, right now, is that the Euro is still a massive outlier even going beyond day 5. It doesn't really know what to do after the block over the Pacific relaxes and drifts back east. I'm riding a blend of the GFS, GEFS, and CFS going through the next 2 weeks. They have been dominating in the stratosphere and mjo forecasts for 2 months solid now.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

There's just some weird stuff going on right now for sure. What's funny though, right now, is that the Euro is still a massive outlier even going beyond day 5. It doesn't really know what to do after the block over the Pacific relaxes and drifts back east. I'm riding a blend of the GFS, GEFS, and CFS going through the next 2 weeks. They have been dominating in the stratosphere and mjo forecasts for 2 months solid now.

Very true, those models have been dominating, even JB brought up how the Euro has been horrible beyond Day 10 (criticizing his fav model).

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

Posted
Posted

Very true, those models have been dominating, even JB brought up how the Euro has been horrible beyond Day 10 (criticizing his fav model).

The last 8 or so weeklies I have seen just keep kicking the same pattern out but moving it back a week. That's why they have really become not worth making mention of like I normally would.

 

Is the image you posted above the Euro?

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

The last 8 or so weeklies I have seen just keep kicking the same pattern out but moving it back a week. That's why they have really become not worth making mention of like I normally would.

Is the image you posted above the Euro?

No, it was the GEFS...

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Hard to get.excited when nothing of substance get inside of 10-12 days.

 

Come on man!  You get wind  :ph34r:  :wacko:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

;)  The Crank had some good reminders on model grasping beyond a few days, and this one about what happened to a fantasy storm for this period:

 

 

 

 

On a more humorous note, this from Juneau, AK's recent AFD I found hilarious  :lol:

 

 

 

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

Posted
Posted

;) The Crank had some good reminders on model grasping beyond a few days, and this one about what happened to a fantasy storm for this period:

 

attachicon.gif20161125 Crank post on model overamplification.PNG

 

 

On a more humorous note, this from Juneau, AK's recent AFD I found hilarious :lol:

 

attachicon.gif20161125 NWS Juneau AK afd.PNG

Best model description ever. Lol.

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Niko Veteran

Niko

Posted
Posted

Accu-weather has December quite cold with some snowfor the midwest. Now lets see how that goes :unsure: .

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Niko Veteran

Niko

Posted
Posted

We need to have white ground in December to get into the holiday spirit. I feel confident we will, especially, near and around the Great Lakes region. It will all start in December. ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

It's interesting looking at the 2m temp anomalies over Hudson Bay and S/SE Canada after the 8th, the model may be keeping a warm bias due to the abnormally warm waters, as well as near the Great Lakes.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112600/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_52.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112600/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_65.png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Gary Lezak mentioned that in the LRC pattern, there are "harmonic" mini cycles within the entire LRC pattern cycle.  I think one feature is showing up and it's the cut-off low which is forecast to sit and spin near the 4 corners Dec 2-5th.  Coincidentally, I remember this storm very well as I drove through it coming here from Chicago.  This energy then ejected out into the Plains states with lots of moisture back on Nov 2-5th which lacked cold air.  I know this is still 7-10 days away, but with arctic air on the horizon and eyes for the lower 48, this could be a potential set up for a wintry system during the opening week of December.

 

In the meantime, we need to see what happens with the large ULL that is forecast to spin over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes this week before the models get a good handle on this energy and the driving northern branch coming out of Canada in early December.  How and when these pieces interact will be the question over the coming days.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112606/gfs_z500_vort_us_41.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112606/gfs_z500_vort_us_43.png

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

I"m going to start a December thread...

 

 

Peek-a-boo  :P  looks like somebody beat you to that..

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1453-december-2016-discussion/

 

 

This was from the tail end of their video of the recent NY storm. This was my December commute in the north-lands circa 1995. Fond memories I'll keep of a region where winter looks so pristine most of the time with frequent LES. Dec of '92 we actually had measurable snow 30/31 days in Traverse City.

 

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

Posted
Posted

Peek-a-boo :P looks like somebody beat you to that..

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1453-december-2016-discussion/

 

 

This was from the tail end of their video of the recent NY storm. This was my December commute in the north-lands circa 1995. Fond memories I'll keep of a region where winter looks so pristine most of the time with frequent LES. Dec of '92 we actually had measurable snow 30/31 days in Traverse City.

 

20161126 ABC news vid on NY LES storm.PNG

One of my top 3 favorite things in nature is seeing pure, untouched snow.

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Niko Veteran

Niko

Posted
Posted

I think after next week, things will get active weatherwise, in terms of snowfall and colder temps.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

12z EPS agreeing with the JMA on track...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112712/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_8.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112712/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_9.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112712/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_9.png

 

 

 

Interesting suite of runs today and it's ensemble packages...guess this pattern may begin to show signs of life...

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

12z EPS also seeing the CO Low Day 10 with loads of arctic air creeping south...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112712/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112712/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_11.png

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