Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Money]

Tom, how do the actual ensembles look with snowfall?

[Tom]

Tom, how do the actual ensembles look with snowfall?

Don't have WxBell subscription yet...maybe Okwx can post or if Bud has them...

[Money]

18z GFS was pretty awful. 

[GDR]

I second that. Punt and move on please

[hlcater]

00z CMC has a Colorado low at 240, I think it's the same one, but there's such a time discrepancy I don't feel confident saying for sure, regardless, the cold source modeled is not quite what did like to see. Plenty behind it, but not sure if there's enough in front of it to make things happen.

[Money]

What do we have here?

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/168/sfcmslp.conus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/168/850tw.conus.png

[Money]

HR 192:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/192/sfcmslp.conus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/192/850tw.conus.png

 

This is what the 12z JMA hinted at earlier except this is even much stronger/west than that.

 

Anyone have snow maps?

[OKwx2k4]

Well, this is new...

 

 

 

Please please please give me this!

[Money]

Well, this is new...

 

ecmwf_tsnow_conus2_37.png

 

 

Please please please give me this!

 

Yeah, came out of nowhere really. Looks like the high down south moves out quicker and doesn't suppress the storm like other models?

[OKwx2k4]

Well, if that even comes close to verifying, it means that the GFS and CFS pretty much had the best setup all along. Really impressive for the weaker models.

[OKwx2k4]

Day 10 GFS

Not as impressive.

[Money]

Yeah, I doubt the Euro verifies but it's fun to look at, and this past storm really was not on the models until around this time frame. 

 

The low comes out from around the LA area and moves due north. How often does that happen?

[OKwx2k4]

Surprisingly, some of the greatest storms in both my and the great Lakes' history have happened that way. I thought up until yesterday and tonight that the models didn't make sense with their teleconnections but this actually does. Definitely won't say it is going to happen because the ECMWF is the most west based.

[Tom]

00z EPS still looking good for the late weekend system.  It's getting colder down south towards OK as well.  Looks like a Gulf/OV cutter is on the table.  Unfortunately, it is the outlier, but we are getting closer to Day 5 where the Euro does better.  The problem I think the GFS is having (oddly enough its usually the EURO) is it keeps the energy farther west and south into the Baja of Mexico longer than the Euro/JMA.  Euro has the energy dig and move east, but the GFS just has it dig farther south and spins in N Mexico before ejecting out

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112806/gfs-ens_z500a_us_24.png

 

Sits there till next Monday...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112806/gfs-ens_z500a_us_31.png

 

 

 

 

00z EPS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112800/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_7.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112800/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_8.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112800/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_8.png

[Tom]

06z GEFS showing the CO LOW Day 8-9...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112806/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_32.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112806/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_36.png

[Tom]

The GFS has a more dominant northern energy compared to the Euro and JMA with the late weekend storm.  So far this season, JMA has done well outside of 5 days, Euro has not...will it be time for the Euro to score a coupe???  Today's runs should be interesting if all the models begin to trend similarly.  Let the battle begin...

 

 

Euro...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112800/ecmwf_mslpa_namer_7.png

 

vs...GFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112806/gfs_mslpa_namer_24.png

[Niko]

Hopefully, by the weekend, the models will have more accurate info.

[Tom]

12z GFS still not enthusiastic with the late weekend system...keeps the cut-off low down south through the weekend...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112812/gfs_z500_vort_us_27.png

[Tom]

12z GFS...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112812/276/snku_acc.conus.png

[OKwx2k4]

That's enthusiastic enough for me. :-)

[Tom]

Gosh, I wonder how all this plays out...Euro/JMA going with the cycling pattern, GFS not quite, but it is going back to the fantasy land storm outside Day 10.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

Still a ways out.  However, it has shown up from time to time.  Fun to look at regardless.  

[jaster220]

snow 10.gif

 

Still a ways out.  However, it has shown up from time to time.  Fun to look at regardless.  

 

That's the beginning of Tom's map above that goes out further. Wish yours was a 120 hr map. Maybe it will be this Saturday lol.

[Tom]

snow 10.gif

 

Still a ways out.  However, it has shown up from time to time.  Fun to look at regardless.  

Did you copy and paste that image from their website???  I tried saving it before and/or copying but it wouldn't work.  Curious how you were able to get that image on here.

[Tom]

@ Jaster, here you go...

 

 

[Tom]

@ CentralNeb, guess the site now allows you to copy and paste images.  They disallowed that before.

[jaster220]

@ Jaster, here you go...

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2016112812/USA_ASNOWI72_sfc_276.gif

 

Not showing any map Tom, just some error message text

[Tom]

Not showing any map Tom, just some error message text

Try now...

[CentralNebWeather]

I didn't know that Tom about copying from their site.  I just saved the image to my computer, went to more reply options, and then choose files before adding it.  

 

Did you copy and paste that image from their website???  I tried saving it before and/or copying but it wouldn't work.  Curious how you were able to get that image on here.

I didn't know that Tom about copying from their site.  I just saved the image to my computer, went to more reply options, and then choose files before adding it.  

[jaster220]

12z GFS...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112812/276/snku_acc.conus.png

 

@ Jaster, here you go...

 

Where'd I go?  You gave me more snow with the 1st image, even though it was 12 hrs less of storm time   

[Iowawx]

Anything from 12Z Euro about late weekend storm?

[jaster220]

Gosh, I wonder how all this plays out...Euro/JMA going with the cycling pattern, GFS not quite, but it is going back to the fantasy land storm outside Day 10.

 

Anything from 12Z Euro about late weekend storm?

 

I don't have the Euro, but Uncle Ukie is lining up for a kick-off on the 4th:

 

 

[Tom]

On my phone but 12z Euro with a 982mb lower lakes bomb...track from LA to DTX

[jaster220]

On my phone but 12z Euro with a 982mb lower lakes bomb...track from LA to DTX

 

Anything from 12Z Euro about late weekend storm?

 

 

 

Edit: I'll take slightly weaker and east for $1,000 Alex...seriously though, climo says low party for SMI, congrats NMI

[OKwx2k4]

Euro through day 7.5

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Euro is getting a little erratic the last few runs it seems.

[Tony]

A different look at it.

[jaster220]

 

 

Haven't seen a snow map, but that track sure looks tasty for St. Louis, Chicago, Milwaukee & much of western MI...Kind of strange that the GFS isn't really picking up on it yet. 

 

 

Massive hit for Northern IN and all of MI. lighter snows on the outskirts of that STL-CHI 

Man did this come outta nowhere fast! Suddenly this is fun since  

[jaster220]

Euro through day 7.5

 

 

ecmwf_tsnow_conus2_31.png

 

@ Niko  - we've won the lotto if that run should verify   

[Tom]

So it's the European Union against the rest of the world...