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Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

hlcater

By hlcater
in East of the Rockies

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Jaycee
Jaycee

I want it to snow as much as any of you, but this is ridiculous. Think about it, there are 3 low pressure systems at play, and we're still way out. Let alone the fact the GFS showed 40" yesterday, are

Money
Money

3rd and 15 with jay cutler as qb

OKwx2k4
OKwx2k4

At a quick glance, the weeklies looked like the analog 1978. Big pretty Aleutian low, -EPO lors of blocking in the sweet spot and weekly snowstorms from January 23 to the end of the run. The run of th

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

On the 12z Euro..

 

 

 

For the entire 12z EURO run?  Over a foot for most of MI

 

Last winter's 1st snow in mby: 12.5"

 

What are the odds I could pull that off 2 yrs in a row??  :rolleyes:  :rolleyes:  :wacko: ..thems not good odds

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

 

Prettiest day 10 euro I have seen in 5 years.

ecmwf_slp_precip_conus2_41.png[/quote

 

Massive 1056mb Arctic HP building in western Canada! #WinterIsComingThisYear

 

 

 

Alaska going in the icebox this weekend, coldest spot forecasted to drop to -68. We are making progress, the cold is finally on this side of the globe. 
  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

Posted
Posted

Let's talk perception for a moment, think about how warm it's been for them these past 3 Winters and to get it down that far Sub Zero, it's going to be biting frigid even for Alaskan standards.

Yes it will. My friend who lives in Fairbanks sent me pictures of her thermometer in 2014 that was 10 degrees warmer than I was here during our cold stretch that season. It will be a bit shocking to them and it's not even midwinter yet. Of course if what I think is going to happen works out, we all could be a bit shocked here too. :)

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Let's talk perception for a moment, think about how warm it's been for them these past 3 Winters and to get it down that far Sub Zero, it's going to be biting frigid even for Alaskan standards.

Yes it will. My friend who lives in Fairbanks sent me pictures of her thermometer in 2014 that was 10 degrees warmer than I was here during our cold stretch that season. It will be a bit shocking to them and it's not even midwinter yet. Of course if what I think is going to happen works out, we all could be a bit shocked here too. :)

 

Don't think we even got close to zero last winter around these parts, did we? I don't know about y'all but cold + wind is the worst for me, thus remembering the PV visit in Jan '14 when the wind chill was -41º that evening is what sticks in my mind, even more than the colder (but calm) Feb 2015 dates.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Tweet Tweet or Woof Woof?  :lol:

 

 

 

(kinda surprised that the BSR guru isn't more bullish. This from another..)

 

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Don't think we even got close to zero last winter around these parts, did we? I don't know about y'all but cold + wind is the worst for me, thus remembering the PV visit in Jan '14 when the wind chill was -41º that evening is what sticks in my mind, even more than the colder (but calm) Feb 2015 dates.

I agree, those biting WC's are nasty.  During that memorable Winter, I remember my furnace broke down and the cold winds blowing against by bedroom window made it very uncomfortable.  The chill was felt in many different ways.  I can feel the drafts all over my place, even where there was some insulation.  At times that season, it felt like the movie "Day After Tomorrow".

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

12z JMA still has the storm, but shunt off east quickly as a northern piece popped up on this run suppressing the storm.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016112812/jma_mslpa_us_7.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016112812/jma_mslpa_us_8.png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

12z Navy has the storm late weekend but similar to the JMA...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016112812/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_26.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016112812/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_28.png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

12z EPS still holding strong with a storm riding up towards the lower lakes late weekend...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112812/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_7.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112812/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_8.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112812/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_8.png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Amazing agreement 10 days out between the GFS/EURO...only "bump" in the road, GFS has no late weekend storm!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112812/gfs_mslpa_us_41.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112812/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

 

 

Amazing agreement 10 days out between the GFS/EURO...only "bump" in the road, GFS has no late weekend storm!

 

 

 

I'm going with the world 

 

Not sure if this guy was being sarcastic or not?  :lol:

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

18z GFS still a no go for the weekend storm

 

Ukie has a nice storm developing at the end of its run

 

999 in S. AR

Either this will be a complete bust or coupe by the GFS.  If it doesn't have the right idea, might need to wait till the occluding low moves on out by Wednesday.  Cut-off storms are a devil to handle by the models.

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Niko Veteran

Niko

Posted
Posted

@ Niko  - we've won the lotto if that run should verify  :lol:  :D

You better believe it buddy.....I wonder if the "B" word will be mentioned. Ouch, I am starting to get the chills already!!!! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Niko Veteran

Niko

Posted
Posted

My forecast is calling for chance for snow already for the upcoming weekend. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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