Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[gosaints]

Friday thru next week im 10-20 above avg

Even the colder runs of the GEFS like 12z only corellates to like -3 degrees F at the surface here and its shows decent snowcover which wont be the case

[Tom]

Do you think we go below normal for any extended period of time?

Between Feb 20th-March 20th I think there will be an extended period of below normal temps.  Better chance when the LRC's cold phase swings through very end of Feb into the opening week to ten days of March.

[gosaints]

Between Feb 20th-March 20th I think there will be an extended period of below normal temps.  Better chance when the LRC's cold phase swings through very end of Feb into the opening week to ten days of March.

Gotcha.. Makes sense.  Hoping there is a better pattern for storms than what the GFS/GEFS cold runs have been showing

[Tom]

Gotcha.. Makes sense.  Hoping there is a better pattern for storms than what the GFS/GEFS cold runs have been showing

Hoping for the Christmas Day Blizzard to cycle through around the 20th to deliver for our sub forum.

[Tony]

Hoping for the Christmas Day Blizzard to cycle through around the 20th to deliver for our sub forum.

That might be all we have to look forward to because next 10 is crap.

[jaster220]

That might be all we have to look forward to because next 10 is crap.

 

Considering we're only on d4 of the projected 2wk lame period, you win the math prize my friend..   Already have spring birds showing up in SMI. I don't like to be the wet blanket thrower on anyone's optimism, but based on what the flavor of this season's been I'm expecting more storms that look promising to show up Long>>>mid-range only to collapse for one reason or another. May not be the same reason we've had up til now, but that (lack of timing the cold plunges) wouldn't surprise me either. 

[Tony]

Considering we're only on d4 of the projected 2wk lame period, you win the math prize my friend..   Already have spring birds showing up in SMI. I don't like to be the wet blanket thrower on anyone's optimism, but based on what the flavor of this season's been I'm expecting more storms that look promising to show up Long>>>mid-range only to collapse for one reason or another. May not be the same reason we've had up til now, but that (lack of timing the cold plunges) wouldn't surprise me either. 

It might be day 4 for you but it's probably day 44 for us for the lame period and it will just keep growing

[Tony]

The sad part is there is nothing to track in our neck of the woods.

[jaster220]

It might be day 4 for you but it's probably day 44 for us for the lame period and it will just keep growing

 

I feel ur pain for sure. I've got little to whine about compared to you guys. Haven't rode the whiff train since my single county in SMI was donut-holed on every storm back in '87-88 - #brutal

[Tony]

I feel ur pain for sure. I've got little to whine about compared to you guys. Haven't rode the whiff train since my single county in SMI was donut-holed on every storm back in '87-88 - #brutal

As long as we can have a nice warm Spring then I can live with how this winter ended up.

[james1976]

As long as we can have a nice warm Spring then I can live with how this winter ended up.

So u dont want 40 and rain in April and May? Lol

[Tony]

So u dont want 40 and rain in April and May? Lol

No thanks...had enough of that the past 45 days

[Tom]

Odd looking clipper has been showing up on the last couple runs on the GFS coming straight down due south out of Canada into the Lakes.  Has some support on the GEFS ensembles but really no confidence this far out in this transpiring.  Gives something to talk about I guess...

 

 

 

[Tony]

Pretty much every wave hits the EC with some sort of precip. It's going to be their month for sure.

[Niko]

Nothin extreme around this part of the world in the next 5-10days, unless, things change. More rain this Sunday, followed by much colder air for next week along with dryer conditions.

 

FWIW: Time is running out and before ya know it, Spring will be here. 

[Tom]

Nothin extreme around this part of the world in the next 5-10days, unless, things change. More rain this Sunday, followed by much colder air for next week along with dryer conditions.

 

FWIW: Time is running out and before ya know it, Spring will be here. 

Ensembles picking up on a better pattern near the Lakes/Midwest heading into next week.  Would not be surprised to see a decent clipper or possibly even have a storm to track.  The one showing up around Valentines Day or just after may be close enough for you to get something.  Amazing similarities to the storm back on Dec 17th-18th.  

 

Here was the 500mb pattern...

 

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/170209151328.gif

 

 

00z Euro...starting to trend that way

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017020900/ecmwf_z500a_us_7.png

[Niko]

Ensembles picking up on a better pattern near the Lakes/Midwest heading into next week.  Would not be surprised to see a decent clipper or possibly even have a storm to track.  The one showing up around Valentines Day or just after may be close enough for you to get something.  Amazing similarities to the storm back on Dec 17th-18th.  

 

Here was the 500mb pattern...

 

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/170209151328.gif

 

 

00z Euro...starting to trend that way

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017020900/ecmwf_z500a_us_7.png

Lets get the party started Tom and finish off Winter with a bang with back to back snowstorms for the remainder of February and into March.

[Tom]

Lets get the party started Tom and finish off Winter with a bang with back to back snowstorms for the remainder of February and into March.

How does the saying go..."It ain't ova, till Mother Nature says its ova"....JMA Weeklies came in today and they are backing up the idea Feb 20th and on Winter is not letting go easy.

[Snowlover76]

hopefully we can get something in late feb 

[jaster220]

How does the saying go..."It ain't ova, till Mother Nature says its ova"....JMA Weeklies came in today and they are backing up the idea Feb 20th and on Winter is not letting go easy.

 

Last winter's gut-less middle, followed by a dragging on thru April into May was worthless. Was afraid this would go the same route. I'll try to stay optimistic that we aren't just teased with nuisance events going forward.

[Tony]

How does the saying go..."It ain't ova, till Mother Nature says its ova"....JMA Weeklies came in today and they are backing up the idea Feb 20th and on Winter is not letting go easy.

Models are showing nothing in the extended. It's pretty much over folks for our area and looks like the EC gets most of the action.

[Tom]

Last winter's gut-less middle, followed by a dragging on thru April into May was worthless. Was afraid this would go the same route. I'll try to stay optimistic that we aren't just teased with nuisance events going forward.

I think later half of March will be nice around here, but may cool off again to open April.

[Jaycee]

hopefully we can get something in late feb 

Like severe weather screw this winter man. Unless we can get a reasonably sized snowstorm count me out. Sick of these dustings we've been getting here in Lincoln. I'll take storms and nice weather over this garbage any day.

[Tom]

Models are showing nothing in the extended. It's pretty much over folks for our area and looks like the EC gets most of the action.

Individual op runs???  What are you referring to???

[Tony]

Individual op runs???  What are you referring to???

Correct, operational runs.

[Tom]

Correct, operational runs.

That's the problem...there is soo much blocking developing that the individual op runs will have no clue how to handle it.  Follow ensembles and I'm also using the LRC as a tool.  It's going to get active around Feb 20th with larger systems.

[Tony]

That's the problem...there is soo much blocking developing that the individual op runs will have no clue how to handle it.  Follow ensembles and I'm also using the LRC as a tool.  It's going to get active around Feb 20th with larger systems.

Will see if the ensembles hold true but would not be surprised if all stays staus quo. If there are storms it better be big ones otherwise not interested.

[Niko]

Will see if the ensembles hold true but would not be surprised if all stays staus quo. If there are storms it better be big ones otherwise not interested.

I am sure you will at least get one big snowstorm. I'd be very shock if you end up not getting one.

[St Paul Storm]

I am sure you will at least get one big snowstorm. I'd be very shock if you end up not getting one.

I thought the same thing in winter of 2014-2015. The biggest single snowfall that winter at MSP was 3.5". Talk about a boring winter!

[Niko]

I thought the same thing in winter of 2014-2015. The biggest single snowfall that winter at MSP was 3.5". Talk about a boring winter!

I hear ya, sometimes we just have ta go with what mother nature provides us with. Keep hope alive!!

[Tom]

MI peeps may see an interesting Clipper, may even hit IL/WI/IN, next Wed-Fri period.  00z GFS showed it last night, lost it today, 12z GGEM showing it today and the 00z EURO had something last night.  All depends on the NAO block because this potential clipper will track along the southern periphery of a trough heading south out of Canada.

 

12z GEFS...this type of scenario (if it holds), could develop a slow moving/pivoting Clipper and depending on how much amplification...could deliver an interesting outcome.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020912/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_32.png

[Tom]

As the strong GOA Low retrogrades west towards the Aleutian Islands just beyond Feb 20th, the entire N.A. pattern has the potential to really amplify into shades of 2013-14.  However, this pattern may be more fun tracking storms as the PAC jet is entirely different than that year.

 

Feb likely to finish off very cold as well as the opening week of March...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020912/gfs-ens_mslpaNormMean_namer_12.png

 

 

CFSv2 weeklies seeing the same thing...surface temps are not making sense...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2017020906/cfs-avg_mslpaNormMean_namer_3.png

[gosaints]

MI peeps may see an interesting Clipper, may even hit IL/WI/IN, next Wed-Fri period.  00z GFS showed it last night, lost it today, 12z GGEM showing it today and the 00z EURO had something last night.  All depends on the NAO block because this potential clipper will track along the southern periphery of a trough heading south out of Canada.

 

12z GEFS...this type of scenario (if it holds), could develop a slow moving/pivoting Clipper and depending on how much amplification...could deliver an interesting outcome.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020912/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_32.png

MJO could have a definite influence on this as well.  I would favor areas further east

[OKwx2k4]

Why couldn't we get to that point in early January??? The awesome progression that we had to set this winter up, which telegraphed very very well the cold in December, just got so screwed up after. Here's hoping we get an extra few weeks at a chance for some fun going forward.

[Tom]

Why couldn't we get to that point in early January??? The awesome progression that we had to set this winter up, which telegraphed very very well the cold in December, just got so screwed up after. Here's hoping we get an extra few weeks at a chance for some fun going forward.

I agree my man...didn't think the torch of January would be so darn strong.  The AO never played ball, but it is now, as well as the NAO so there is still a lot of winter left on the table.  Heck, you many even see something deep down south if the cold overwhelms the pattern heading into March.

[gosaints]

LOL at the 974 bomb over the east coast on monday

[NEJeremy]

Like severe weather screw this winter man. Unless we can get a reasonably sized snowstorm count me out. Sick of these dustings we've been getting here in Lincoln. I'll take storms and nice weather over this garbage any day.

Yeah no kidding. I have spring fever already and tomorrow isn't going to help when it's near 60. It's amazing how this winter keeps getting pushed back further. I thought February was supposed to be amazing for everyone and now we're talking about maybe the last week of the month. Pretty soon that will turn into March, etc.

[Tom]

Yeah no kidding. I have spring fever already and tomorrow isn't going to help when it's near 60. It's amazing how this winter keeps getting pushed back further. I thought February was supposed to be amazing for everyone and now we're talking about maybe the last week of the month. Pretty soon that will turn into March, etc.

Nobody said EVERYONE...and I know your referring to me...we have such a large subforum its almost impossible to gauge that.

[Tom]

12z Euro showing that clipper next Wed/Thu dropping due south out of Canada.  Wonder if precip maps show anything decent.

[Tony]

LOL at the 974 bomb over the east coast on monday

As I said earlier this month is for the EC.