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Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

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#4301
NEJeremy

Posted 16 March 2017 - 01:22 PM

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LOL at breaking down a D8 model (any model) for specific "threats". They don't do that for snow systems, they know better...good luck with that though

thus the reason why they didn't issue any outlook areas. all they said is that the current run of EURO shows a good setup and model inconsistencies are preventing an outlook at this time. it's not to hard to say a specific model shows a certain type of threat based on instability, shear etc. 

I'm not locking this in, just something I am watching like we all watch systems here. GFS has been showing a big system around that time as well.

 

yes there outlooks for heavy snow issued at long range here:

http://www.cpc.ncep....ats/threats.php

 

shows hazardous weather outlooks for 3-7 days and 8-14 days


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#4302
Illinois_WX

Posted 16 March 2017 - 01:51 PM

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I don't think I've ever seen a day 8, where they specifically mention tornadic potential. That's crazy. It looks monstrous on models, but obviously the shifts are going to happen.


  • NEJeremy likes this

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#4303
gimmesnow

Posted 16 March 2017 - 02:36 PM

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What does everyone think of odds of this being snow or rain? I think 30 percent snow, 70 percent rain.

#4304
gosaints

Posted 16 March 2017 - 03:01 PM

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What does everyone think of odds of this being snow or rain? I think 30 percent snow, 70 percent rain.


Where?

#4305
Money

Posted 16 March 2017 - 03:16 PM

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gosaints, what's the temp departures looking like right now?



#4306
gosaints

Posted 16 March 2017 - 03:43 PM

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gosaints, what's the temp departures looking like right now?


Ill.check when I get home.. I am sure we are below normal. La crosse only +1 I saw on news this morning roch behind them I am sure. Probably -2.5 or so.

#4307
jaster220

Posted 16 March 2017 - 05:04 PM

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thus the reason why they didn't issue any outlook areas. all they said is that the current run of EURO shows a good setup and model inconsistencies are preventing an outlook at this time. it's not to hard to say a specific model shows a certain type of threat based on instability, shear etc. 
I'm not locking this in, just something I am watching like we all watch systems here. GFS has been showing a big system around that time as well.
 
yes there outlooks for heavy snow issued at long range here:
http://www.cpc.ncep....ats/threats.php
 
shows hazardous weather outlooks for 3-7 days and 8-14 days


I was aware of those outlooks. I'd like to see them detail (d8) bliz hazards and have it verify. Lucky if you actually end up with a legit storm here from that range. Thats the very reason starting thread s beyond d5 is likely to disappoint.

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 7.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.4 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal. One helluva stretch!!

 

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#4308
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 March 2017 - 05:33 PM

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I don't think I've ever seen a day 8, where they specifically mention tornadic potential. That's crazy. It looks monstrous on models, but obviously the shifts are going to happen.

Only thing that 18Z GFS says needs to happen is have the cap be broken and slightly higher CAPE values for a nice severe outbreak. Shear is there, EHI is there. Nice dry line too with ~55* dew points. Too bad I won't be here for that, but still definitely something to watch out for.

Edit: Definitely just talking about Lincoln. Even juicier chances with fewer inhibiting factors exist to our West.
  • jaster220 likes this

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 4.5"             Coldest Low: 9*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#4309
Grizzcoat

Posted 16 March 2017 - 08:53 PM

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RST  is -3.9F through the 16th --- LSE is -1.1F



#4310
NEJeremy

Posted 16 March 2017 - 10:22 PM

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Only thing that 18Z GFS says needs to happen is have the cap be broken and slightly higher CAPE values for a nice severe outbreak. Shear is there, EHI is there. Nice dry line too with ~55* dew points. Too bad I won't be here for that, but still definitely something to watch out for.

Edit: Definitely just talking about Lincoln. Even juicier chances with fewer inhibiting factors exist to our West.


0Z looking even better across the plains. We'll see what the Euro shows

#4311
Tom

Posted 17 March 2017 - 06:50 AM

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With official Spring around the corner, it may be time to put this thread to rest...

 

Having said that, I started a Spring/Summer Severe Wx Thread....

 

http://theweatherfor...vere-wx-thread/


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#4312
LNK_Weather

Posted 17 March 2017 - 07:12 AM

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With official Spring around the corner, it may be time to put this thread to rest...

 

Having said that, I started a Spring/Summer Severe Wx Thread....

 

http://theweatherfor...vere-wx-thread/

Good idea. Think Nebraska and points South are pretty much done for snow this season.


  • jaster220 likes this

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 4.5"             Coldest Low: 9*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#4313
Money

Posted 18 March 2017 - 11:24 AM

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Euro looking colder for that Sat system. Much stronger HP to the north:

 

sfcmslp.conus.png



#4314
gimmesnow

Posted 18 March 2017 - 11:35 AM

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Cold enough for snow in se Wisconsin? Normally I'm ready for spring now but we got ripped off this winter. I feel I'm being greedy though, that last snow system we got was amazing for boarding

#4315
Niko

Posted 18 March 2017 - 01:46 PM

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Cold air not done yet. Next week gets cold again. :angry: :blink:



#4316
Niko

Posted 18 March 2017 - 04:56 PM

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12z Euro snowfall is planning something........ :o :wacko:

 

2dv7k2v.png



#4317
Niko

Posted 18 March 2017 - 05:18 PM

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That map better not verify. :angry:



#4318
gimmesnow

Posted 18 March 2017 - 07:03 PM

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The jealousy is real.



#4319
Tom

Posted 04 April 2017 - 07:18 PM

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Another map showing the extremes of warmth for the eastern 2/3rd's and cold for the PAC NW...MN/WI region practically normal for the season...

 

C8nIl-MXsAEV9bZ.jpg


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