Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[gosaints]

LOL at the 974 bomb over the east coast on monday

Double LOL and another chance at a big one next thrusday

[Tom]

Double LOL and another chance at a big one next thrusday

That one is interesting because it takes the clipper energy and gulf energy and phases in the east.  Could be an interesting system for the eastern Lakes.

[Tony]

12z Euro showing that clipper next Wed/Thu dropping due south out of Canada.  Wonder if precip maps show anything decent.

I think that clipper is too far east for anyting of substance for those west of the lake.

[Niko]

I hope that system can really show some madness IMBY in SEMI and for others on this sub-forum as well who have been snowfree this winter thus far. Cant complaint as I currently stand at 34.7" for the season so far, but, do hope I can break that 50" mark by winters end.

[jaster220]

As I said earlier this month is for the EC.

 

No Fear! JB says March will be our month (OHV, Lwr Lks) per his daily update....

[jaster220]

MI peeps may see an interesting Clipper, may even hit IL/WI/IN, next Wed-Fri period.  00z GFS showed it last night, lost it today, 12z GGEM showing it today and the 00z EURO had something last night.  All depends on the NAO block because this potential clipper will track along the southern periphery of a trough heading south out of Canada.

 

12z GEFS...this type of scenario (if it holds), could develop a slow moving/pivoting Clipper and depending on how much amplification...could deliver an interesting outcome.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020912/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_32.png

 

 

I agree my man...didn't think the torch of January would be so darn strong.  The AO never played ball, but it is now, as well as the NAO so there is still a lot of winter left on the table.  Heck, you many even see something deep down south if the cold overwhelms the pattern heading into March.

 

A clipper diving due south has what for moisture source exactly? And I'll believe the due south part when it happens. Until then, uh uh

[Tom]

12z Euro snow map thru Day 8...eastern Lakes may get in on the fun...depending on the blocking, this will likely shift...

 

[Tom]

This pattern is reminiscent of Feb '15...lets see how it shakes out when all sudden done.  Better blocking this season...still think Lakes/Midwest is in the game.

[Niko]

I am in the 3-5" range. Look at the EC. They get hammered once again.

[gosaints]

writing is on the wall

[gosaints]

Is there guidance locking in blocking?  How about the raging PNA/ MJO

[Tom]

Is there guidance locking in blocking?  How about the raging PNA/ MJO

GEFS/EPS...and if you look at the CFSv2 weeklies surface maps they build HP over the Pole

[gosaints]

GEFS/EPS...and if you look at the CFSv2 weeklies surface maps they build HP over the Pole

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

That is not a locked in look

[Tony]

12z Euro snow map thru Day 8...eastern Lakes may get in on the fun...depending on the blocking, this will likely shift...

 

Has us in the 0.1 range...can't wait!

[gosaints]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_full.gif

[Tom]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

That is not a locked in look

AO sure didn't go positive in the extended all but 1 run when you posted a couple days ago. I am very confident the AO will remain negative for a long period going forward.

[gosaints]

-AO raging PNA we get what we get the next few days.... 

[Tom]

Has us in the 0.1 range...can't wait!

Shift that west Tony and you will light up. This is a blocked up pattern and you can't count yourself out 5 days out amigo.

[gosaints]

Shift that west Tony and you will light up. This is a blocked up pattern and you can't count yourself out 5 days out amigo.

Id buy a ticket to coastal maine

[Tony]

Shift that west Tony and you will light up. This is a blocked up pattern and you can't count yourself out 5 days out amigo.

Don't want anything less than 12+ so it would have to shift a ton.

[Tom]

Don't want anything less than 12+ so it would have to shift a ton.

Sheesh, asking to much????

[NEJeremy]

Nobody said EVERYONE...and I know your referring to me...we have such a large subforum its almost impossible to gauge that.

easy Tom, I'm not blaming you. You always show us the maps and so forth that back your thoughts, it just hasn't worked out well this year and it's been that way since last fall when the winter discussion was started. I know not EVERYONE is going to get nailed, but it was said it looks like February could deliver to a large portion of us and now the pattern isn't looking favorable until the last week of the month. It's just the way it's been this year.

[Tony]

Sheesh, asking to much????

Not really, snow blower won't work with anything less

[gosaints]

snowpack gonna be gone after the weekend

[St Paul Storm]

Not really, snow blower won't work with anything less

Sure it will. My snowblower has grown to love 2" snowfalls this year. ; )

[gosaints]

Ill take a euro/eps blend

[OKwx2k4]

When I wrote about winter back in the fall, I was more sure about this winter than I'd been about a winter in 4 or 5 years. I'm disappointed that I was wrong. I haven't seen back-to-back crapfests like these last 2 winters in my life I don't think. It's amazing to me now that I can see the role that the QBO plays in the progression (or retrogression) of the overall pattern and where the dominant and recurring features set up due to it. Of course we've never seen a doubled QBO cycle before either so I don't think anyone really knew exactly what to expect with regards to overall movement throughout the atmosthere. Again, just disappointed for getting anyone's hopes up and things not working out the way they should have.

[Tom]

When I wrote about winter back in the fall, I was more sure about this winter than I'd been about a winter in 4 or 5 years. I'm disappointed that I was wrong. I haven't seen back-to-back crapfests like these last 2 winters in my life I don't think. It's amazing to me now that I can see the role that the QBO plays in the progression (or retrogression) of the overall pattern and where the dominant and recurring features set up due to it. Of course we've never seen a doubled QBO cycle before either so I don't think anyone really knew exactly what to expect with regards to overall movement throughout the atmosthere. Again, just disappointed for getting anyone's hopes up and things not working out the way they should have.

Every year has its learning lessons. I had no idea what to expect with the QBO this season. It was just one of the pieces that didn't work to our advantage. On the other hand, who knew the LRC's non-stop ridges that set up in the Fall would be so dang dominant, esp down by you. Looks like the blocking is late to the party, but the party ain't over till its over!

[Snowlover76]

Crickets.

[gosaints]

Crickets.

u torch

[gosaints]

GFS has a nice 372 hour storm

[gosaints]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

Would think there would be a chance for something when the AO spikes at the end of next week 

[Tom]

00z EPS...not screaming really cold just yet, but stormy...centered around the 20th or so for a bowling ball system...

 

[Tom]

EPO still forecast to dip negative around the 20th...

 

[gosaints]

00z EPS...not screaming really cold just yet, but stormy...centered around the 20th or so for a bowling ball system...

 

Thats an above average look

[Niko]

Another big storm to target the EC early next week and this one looks even stronger.

[gosaints]

The GFS tanks to AO as far as any model and this is what it delivers

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017021012/gfs_T850_us_30.png

[Snowlover76]

Stick a fork in this winter.

[jaster220]

GFS has a nice 372 hour storm

 

Stop it! Ur killin me

 

Stick a fork in this winter.

 

All coasts...all the time. The Coastal winter, just not my coast. Google maps just happens to have an areal shot of where I work. It's seriously a wind tunnel here in the cold season and extra brutal when there's no snow to show for it. I'm truly fine with getting back to warm sunny days and lunch-time jeb walks to the lighthouse...

 

 

[GDR]

That hr 372 looks crushing