11/28 - 11/30 Autumn Storm

[Tom]

Models are still having a difficult time trying to figure which piece of energy will be the dominant one.  The first or second???  Will the first storm eject out into the Plains and target the Upper Midwest again with an Autumn snow??  Could the secondary piece of energy rounding the base of the developing trough turn into a formidable wintry system???  Let's discuss....

 

06z GEFS...show the occluding system near the Dakotas...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112406/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_17.png

 

 

Secondary piece near TX Panhandle on the 29th...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112406/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png

 

 

 

[Tom]

00z EPS looking like the first piece of energy will be the dominant one...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112400/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_6.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112400/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_7.png

[Tom]

12z NAM a bit farther south with the northern piece ejecting out of CO...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016112412/namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

 

06z GFS ejects it out into SD....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112406/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png

 

 

 

12z NAM still with a vigorous upper feature in So Cal at the end of its run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016112412/namconus_z500_vort_us_53.png

[Tom]

06z Navy model with some wrap around snows into parts of NE...looks like Dakotas get a good snow...if this energy can eject more east than I think NE peeps could squeeze some snow out of this...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016112406/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_19.png

[Money]

12z GFS keeps the first system strong and sitting in Minnesota while 2nd system does much of nothing

 

12z GGEM has a 977 L in eastern WI with 2nd system

[gosaints]

12z GFS keeps the first system strong and sitting in Minnesota while 2nd system does much of nothing

 

12z GGEM has a 977 L in eastern WI with 2nd system

Cold air connection is craptastic.  Same issue we had through last winter

[Tom]

12z GEFS seeing another piece of energy coming out of the GOM and tracking up towards the OV late on the 30th...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112412/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_28.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112412/gfs-ens_mslptrend_us_14.png

 

Forecast trends seeing something...

[Tom]

12z Euro with a strong occluding low centered over NW IA...cold enough for wrap around snows???  Don't have access to precip maps.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112412/ecmwf_T850_ncus_6.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112412/ecmwf_T850_ncus_7.png

[Tom]

Took a while, but now the 12z Euro seeing what the GFS/GGEM have been all along with the secondary piece of energy down near the GOM coast.  Nice track up through the OV...could it be a wintry system for parts of the Lakes???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112412/ecmwf_mslpa_us_7.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112412/ecmwf_mslpa_us_8.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112412/ecmwf_T850_us_8.png

[Tom]

@ Okwx, 850's look they are cool enough for wintry precip.  Any snowfall maps??

[gosaints]

Looks like they drop too late

[Money]

Couple of 18z GFS ensembles are big snowstorms for IA/MN with 2nd system

 

Wrap up pretty good (sub 980) and get enough cold air

[OKwx2k4]

@ Okwx, 850's look they are cool enough for wintry precip. Any snowfall maps??

Euro was north into Kansas. GFS has had stuff the whole time throughout parts of Oklahoma but it's pretty weak stuff.

[Money]

GFS Ensembles:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f126.gif

[Money]

hmmm

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112500/138/prateptype.conus.png

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112500/144/prateptype.conus.png

[clintbeed1993]

What a pathetic waste of a storm.  What looked like a great pattern with multiple storms is now nothing.  This is why you don't trust models over a week out.  Really desperate for something before Christmas this year.  Tired of these typical brown Decembers.  Utterly pathetic.

[jaster220]

HPC's thoughts..

 

 

[Niko]

hmmm

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112500/138/prateptype.conus.png

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112500/144/prateptype.conus.png

[Tom]

Nature will always serve a purpose, I guess one way to look at this storm is it'll fill in the snow holes in the Dakotas as well as southern Manitoba/Saskatchewan...

 

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112706/gfs_asnow_us_21.png

[Tom]

Nice healthy dumping of snow expected for the Dakotas...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/bis/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=41248

[Tom]

18z NAM cranks out the snow in the Dakotas...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016112718/namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png

 

 

Some wrap around lighter snows for NE/N IA/WI???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016112718/namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_49.png

 

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016112718/namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_51.png

[jaster220]

Cycling thru this, it shows portions of ND under "snow" for 51 hrs non-stop. 

 

 

 

 

Would so love to get something doing this over the GL's with a favorable flow for mby!

[Jaycee]

@James

 

You might wanna keep an eye to the sky my friend. There are several tornado warnings around Waterloo right now.

[james1976]

[jaster220]

Did anyone else get some non-twister action from this system? Marshall's annual holiday season kick-off parade was last evening and what a raw one it was! 43º, rain, and wind - not the friendliest of wx but it didn't seem to dampen people's enthusiasm too much.

 

Later towards 9:30 the front hit and it got howling windy for about 4 hrs. This morning I noticed quite a bit of dead limbs down, and even a large tree that looked weak or already dead and brittle.

 

Barometer got pretty darn low too.

 

 

[Tom]

Did anyone else get some non-twister action from this system? Marshall's annual holiday season kick-off parade was last evening and what a raw one it was! 43º, rain, and wind - not the friendliest of wx but it didn't seem to dampen people's enthusiasm too much.

 

Later towards 9:30 the front hit and it got howling windy for about 4 hrs. This morning I noticed quite a bit of dead limbs down, and even a large tree that looked weak or already dead and brittle.

 

Barometer got pretty darn low too.

 

20161128 KRMY 11-33pm.PNG

I guess there were some cold core tornado's in IA last night near James's place.

[Tom]

Very impressive snow fall totals in the Dakotas and its still snowing heavily!  Local 2 Feet+ totals will likely be coming out of ND.  In fact, some spots may exceed their seasonal snowfall totals from last year and the year prior!  This will be a featured storm that will cycle through the next 2 or 3 cycles this cold season.

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/bis/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=16534

[Niko]

No snow here, but, lots of flooding around, especially, in low lying areas.

[jaster220]

 

 

Very impressive snow fall totals in the Dakotas and its still snowing heavily!  Local 2 Feet+ totals will likely be coming out of ND.  In fact, some spots may exceed their seasonal snowfall totals from last year and the year prior!  This will be a featured storm that will cycle through the next 2 or 3 cycles this cold season.

 

With as deep of a low pressure and wide open country up there, what kept this from bliz warnings? Guessing rates weren't too heavy just long duration. That's gotta be up there for Minot, almost never see that locale buried by a single system. I do remember a bliz there, but was 32 yrs ago LOL..

 

As for cycling through, please park over Georgian Bay next time, thanks! signed: Jaster220  

[Tom]

A lot of rainfall for November standards locally...

 

[james1976]

First real snowshowers of the season right now! See if we can get the ground white at all. Nice piece of energy rounding the L.

[Niko]

Due to this storm, a friend of mine lost power because of the strong winds that came across Monday night. He still has no power as I am typing this. Having no power is no fun at all.

[Niko]

I guess there were some cold core tornado's in IA last night near James's place.

Kinda odd for this time of the year, especially, this far north.