December 2016 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

We've seen this happen way too often in the 10+ day range lately. You would think one of these times it would actually verify.

[GDR]

[bud2380]

18z GFS has no storm until very late 300 hours plus.

[Niko]

12z JMA...takes a low straight out of the GOM and heads N/NE towards the OV...cold enough for snow on the NW side of the system.  This system is part of the cut-off low that spins near the 4 corners/N Mexico region Day 4-6.

 

If this system does in fact form, IMO, it would correlate with the Oct 19th-21st stationary boundary that lead to a wave of low pressure to form out of the TX Pan Handle and tracked up the OV and bombed out towards NE.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016112712/jma_mslpa_us_8.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016112712/jma_mslpa_us_9.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016112712/jma_T850_us_9.png

 

 

 

12z Euro has the storm but a tad farther east and less amplified...

 

Day 7-8...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112712/ecmwf_mslpa_us_8.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112712/ecmwf_mslpa_us_9.png

BAM!!!!!!!! Thats the track I need to get inundated with snow here in SEMI. The 12z JMA better come true.

 

@Jaster: are you ready for this, if we do, indeed get this storm to track like this????? That's gonna be a lot of snow for us.

[Tom]

18z GFS has no storm until very late 300 hours plus.

Do you get 12z EPS snowfall amounts? How did the Control look?

[bud2380]

EPS control is not very impressive.  It shows 1" or less for the upcoming weekend system, then kind of warms up again and brings some rain to much of the midwest before a bit more snow late in the run. 

[james1976]

EPS control is not very impressive. It shows 1" or less for the upcoming weekend system, then kind of warms up again and brings some rain to much of the midwest before a bit more snow late in the run.

Does that go out 10 days? Or more?

[bud2380]

Eps goes out to 360 hours

[Madtown]

Blah blah blah....10 days out over and over just to disappear. About as good as the Packers season right now.

[Hawkeye]

Blah blah blah....10 days out over and over just to disappear. About as good as the Packers season right now.

 

Aaron Rodgers says, "R-E-L-A-X"  

 

Although, if by December 7th the models still show winter ten days out then it's time to dust off the panic button.

[bud2380]

Overnight euro now shows heavy snow next Sunday in Iowa and other areas.

[bud2380]

[bud2380]

EPS Control is similar

[james1976]

DMX going dry next weekend. Says the Euro is an outlier.

[Tom]

IMG_0276.PNG

Hey Bud, we created a thread for storm threats/discussion 5+ days out...just an FYI...

 

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1449-winter-2016-medium-to-long-range-discussion-5-days-out/

[Tom]

The waters in the N PAC are warming considerably where the pattern is beginning to shift into a semi-permanent ridge this month.  If the ridge maintains itself in this region of the N PAC, it will produce an ideal storm track.  I remember last year this is exactly where the ridge parked itself and the PNA held negative, sometimes deeply.  This will keep the activity across the Midwest/Plains/Lakes region.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

As long as you can keep the trough NW of Hawaii, it keeps the central CONUS colder...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112806/gfs-ens_z500aMean_npac_7.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112806/gfs-ens_z500aMean_npac_12.png

[jaster220]

R-E-L-A-X 

 

Although, if by December 7th the models still show winter ten days out then it's time to dust off the panic button.

 

Very well put. If this proves to be yet another false alarm for real winter conditions, then we'll have to start questioning if it will ever get legs enough to be more than a mediocre season fraught with false starts. Gonna try to remain optimistic. The problem with winter is that I start wanting it 4 months before climo says it normally begins around my region. It's a lot of time commitmed to hopes and hypes LOL.

[Tom]

Dr. Cohen seeing the PV illustrated on the GEFS...I touched on this yesterday morning...this could get real interesting...

 

 

 Follow

Judah Cohen‏@judah47

Skepticism always needed of GFS predictions of #polarvortex but latest suggestive of extreme #cold in Western North America. Blog late today

[gosaints]

Dr. Cohen seeing the PV illustrated on the GEFS...I touched on this yesterday morning...this could get real interesting...

I hope judah has more success this winter than last

[Tom]

I hope judah has more success this winter than last

So far so good...it's crazy to say, but GFS has been doing quite well this season in the strato dept.

[jaster220]

BAM!!!!!!!! Thats the track I need to get inundated with snow here in SEMI. The 12z JMA better come true.

 

@Jaster: are you ready for this, if we do, indeed get this storm to track like this????? That's gonna be a lot of snow for us.

 

I be ready, bro!  Let 'er rip JMA! 

[jaster220]

CO low eye candy for Tom and Chicago peeps

 

 

[jaster220]

NOAA inching their way towards a cold look (for them) after the 10th:

 

 

[Tom]

CO low eye candy for Tom and Chicago peeps

 

20161127 GFS 12z 276hr Surf.PNG

12z GFS back to showing it...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png

[Tom]

12z GFS....

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112812/276/snku_acc.conus.png

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

That 2nd image is sweet, just wish it was not a d10+ map (sigh)

 

GFS certainly hinting that there will be serious cold and contrast to mix it up in that time period:

 

 

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

That 2nd image is sweet, just wish it was not a d10+ map (sigh)

 

GFS certainly hinting that there will be serious cold and contrast to mix it up in that time period:

 

20161128 GFS 12z 228-240hr temps.PNG

I love to track a big storm that has huge temp gradients and big time snows that unleash the arcitc hounds behind the storm.  Of course, you would like to be on the snowy side of things!

[jaster220]

I love to track a big storm that has huge temp gradients and big time snows that unleash the arcitc hounds behind the storm.  Of course, you would like to be on the snowy side of things!

 

I've seen that even the BSR would hint at something around the 9th (looked CO low like). Should be noted that the experts on that rule have stated that there is a "300-400 mile placement error" when performing the map overlay trick. Nonetheless, it showed a strong system moving east from central Indiana in the timeframe. Another puzzle piece. I'd love to kick off this season in Dec 2000 bliz style! 

[Niko]

12z GFS....

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112812/276/snku_acc.conus.png

Sweet!

[Niko]

12z GFS back to showing it...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png

Look at all that moisture from map#1 heading into SEMI in the form of snow and map#2 simply draws heavy snow into the area and wind as well.

[jaster220]

 

 

Hopefully this southeast ridge doesn't have too much of an influence on this storm. I did some reading and a lot of mets have been alluding to this ridge for a few days now. Could spell some GLC action if it pans out.

 

I sometimes follow along with EC threads since they seem to have a large batch of snow weenies there and will kick off a thread a lot sooner than we do in the Midwest. I also look for hints that they're worried, cuz their bad trend is usually our good trend. 

[OKwx2k4]

I sometimes follow along with EC threads since they seem to have a large batch of snow weenies there and will kick off a thread a lot sooner than we do in the Midwest. I also look for hints that they're worried, cuz their bad trend is usually our good trend.

Yeah. If the east coast and the northwest mention getting screwed it usually means we win.

[hlcater]

Yeah. If the east coast and the northwest mention getting screwed it usually means we win.

If someone mentions the EC getting screwed(in a EC thread) it means nothing because east coast snow treads would always tell you they get screwed on every storm at all times during the year.

[jaster220]

If someone mentions the EC getting screwed(in a EC thread) it means nothing because east coast snow treads would always tell you they get screwed on every storm at all times during the year.

 

Is that before or after 3 feet has fallen?? 

[jaster220]

Now this response is truly LOL ROFL worthy 

 

 

 

PARD, I am convinced that all storms begin as a GLC's, and it takes strong atmospheric anomalies to alter their path.

[OKwx2k4]

Is that before or after 3 feet has fallen??

Lol. Great point.

[jaster220]

Chambana posted

 

 

Alaska going in the icebox this weekend, coldest spot forecasted to drop to -68. We are making progress, the cold is finally on this side of the globe. 

[Tom]

Still a lot of volatility with with the CFSv2 for December...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201612.gif

[Niko]

I sometimes follow along with EC threads since they seem to have a large batch of snow weenies there and will kick off a thread a lot sooner than we do in the Midwest. I also look for hints that they're worried, cuz their bad trend is usually our good trend. 

Good move Jaster!

[gabel23]

I'm liking the CPC update on the December outlook.