December 2016 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Some decently heavy snow showers across SWMI this morning. Light snow in Marshall and heavier squalls west. Can't wait til we get some cold air to work with. 

[Tom]

Welcome to meteorological Winter!  Could many locals near the Lakes get their first 1" of snow this weekend???

 

 

 

[Niko]

Some snowshowers currently falling, but no accumulations. Hello December!

[Tom]

Interesting look on the JMA weeklies for many of us for the next 2 weeks.  Looks cold/stormy with a SE ridge Week 1 which makes sense given the -PNA.  Hudson Bay block is going to play a role with next weeks system along with the west-based -NAO.  Week 2 looks chilly except for the SW region as a La Nina PAC NW jet keeps slamming the west and systems track from the Rockies into the Plains.  Good signal for a -AO to develop.

[gosaints]

NAO is weak sauce. Plenty of room for hard cutters

[Tom]

Yesterday's final run of the daily CFSv2 for December...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201612.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201612.gif

[Tom]

CFSv2 weeklies bleeding arctic air into the lower 48 this month.  Finally, we will engulf N.A with cold air and stand a good chance at seeing wintry systems that can tap into the cold air source and produce more widespread snowstorms down the road.  I really like where things are going.  They have been erratic over the last few days, for many reasons and I think the SSW is a main culprit.

 

Nonetheless, here are the latest maps from the CFSv2...

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.gif

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAprec.gif

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_20161130.NA.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Week 2 and 4 on CFS anomalies maps there look like a snowstorm pattern for me.

[jaster220]

Week 2 and 4 on CFS anomalies maps there look like a snowstorm pattern for me.

 

Hoping you can cash-in buddy! Hang in there 

[jaster220]

For those who like tracking dates, data, etc..

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Hoping you can cash-in buddy! Hang in there

I'm hanging. I had a brief frustration/panic moment but I'm ok now. :-) I hate western cutters with a passion.

[Tom]

I'm hanging. I had a brief frustration/panic moment but I'm ok now. :-) I hate western cutters with a passion.

How do the 12z EPS snow forecasts look for Day 6/7 down by you???  Seems like it is trending colder from the maps I can see.

[Thunder98]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

[OKwx2k4]

How do the 12z EPS snow forecasts look for Day 6/7 down by you??? Seems like it is trending colder from the maps I can see.

It definitely has. Trended south with the snow also. 17/50 plus the control have snow getting down here now. Mean is 1.5 in or so. For the Euro to move south and east as it has is a pretty good sign. The operational is still way northwest though. I'd like to see over 30 of 50 EPS members with snow before I'll bite though.

[Tom]

It definitely has. Trended south with the snow also. 17/50 plus the control have snow getting down here now. Mean is 1.5 in or so. For the Euro to move south and east as it has is a pretty good sign. The operational is still way northwest though. I'd like to see over 30 of 50 EPS members with snow before I'll bite though.

How does it look up here??

[OKwx2k4]

Control+Mean

 

 

This is through day 8.5. It's also picking up some stuff in my direction in the day 12-14 range but we'll get through this one first.

[OKwx2k4]

It does lend some credence to my thoughts that you can't really suppress the pattern that much and still get a storm to cut straight northeast out of Colorado but we'll see what happens.

[Money]

GFS showing a little disturbance for WI/IL on Sunday. General 1-3 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120200/072/sn10_024h.conus.png

[Tom]

GFS showing a little disturbance for WI/IL on Sunday. General 1-3

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120200/072/sn10_024h.conus.png

This wave trended colder over the last few days. Doubt we see 2" as ground is still warm. Wouldn't mind seeing a teaser and seasons first official 1".

[jaster220]

It does lend some credence to my thoughts that you can't really suppress the pattern that much and still get a storm to cut straight northeast out of Colorado but we'll see what happens.

 

Interesting that those riding the BSR are saying this "should be" an OHV storm, even though the early read by models (and climo?) have said west and strong is the way to lean. Gonna be a huge test of that rule imho. 

[james1976]

DMX talking couple inches sat nite-sun. Seems to be trending colder and a bit more qpf. NAM is showing advisory snows but its prolly a little bullish. Either way, it could be the first real accumulating snow for some of us.

[james1976]

Looks like our first artcic air coming in behind the storm next week so whatever snow falls should stick around.

[Tom]

12z NAM...coming in cooler and showing a little more snow in Se NE/W KS/IA/WI/N IL...

 

 

[jaster220]

 

 

12z NAM...coming in cooler and showing a little more snow in Se NE/W KS/IA/WI/N IL...

 

"mood setter system" on tap, eh? nice

[westMJim]

At this time, it looks like our mild temperatures we have experienced will soon be coming to an end. That is not real surprising as where I live in Grand Rapids is almost half way between the north pole and the equator.  That is one of the reason we have such variable day to day weather. Not sure how long the upcoming cold will last but one thing is almost certain depending on the wind direction there should be some good lake effect some where in West Michigan. While not as warm as this fall has been (thus the lakes many not have been as warm) I did find several years that were mild in November and then became colder in December. Here is a list of some of the years. The list includes the year, the number of days in a row of at least a t of snow fall and the total snow fall (at Grand Rapids) in the number of days. The days were all below 32° for highs and lows.

1.       1958 12 days 17.5”    

2.       1960 9 days   12.7”     

3.       1963 19 days 17.5”     

4.       1975 4 days   8.8”       

Not sure how much (if any) we will get out of this upcoming first cold after a mild November but past history says we should have several inches (or more) after the cold settles in.

[Niko]

Sundays system is looking better now in terms of snowfall . More moisture will get involved along with colder air temps. Couple of inches are now possible. Sweet!

[Niko]

Next week looks even more interesting.

[Niko]

http://i67.tinypic.com/23k3j8m.jpg

 

Mauna Kea, Hawaii ........Winterstorm slammed the area way up in elevation.

[Hawkeye]

DMX talking couple inches sat nite-sun. Seems to be trending colder and a bit more qpf. NAM is showing advisory snows but its prolly a little bullish. Either way, it could be the first real accumulating snow for some of us.

 

All the models this morning have continued the trend of increasing qpf.  The GFS and UK are both up to 0.40" for east-central/southeast Iowa.  Now we just need this to all fall as snow.  It will be close.

[jaster220]

Nice write-up on the impending cold. Now if we could just get that 15 day snow map to verify..

 

 

http://ohiovalleyforecastingcenter.com/marching-towards-cold/

[Hawkeye]

Anyone have the 12z Euro snow map for the weekend system?

[winterfreak]

Trend look good for the Lakes and OV but once again us Plains people are left to dry.

[gosaints]

Trend look good for the Lakes and OV but once again us Plains people are left to dry.

Ahh. trend doesnt look good for anything but cold

[mlgamer]

I remember when the models were measuring the snow in feet out on the plains.  Good times!

[bud2380]

GFS keeps ramping up the qpf for tomorrow night

[Tom]

GFS keeps ramping up the qpf for tomorrow night

Spitting out a few inches for you but to warm i think to accumulate that much.

[OKwx2k4]

I like the 0z GFS tonight. Not pretty but I'll take it.

[Tom]

LOT's take on Sunday's Snow...

 

[james1976]

So much cold air on GFS its suppressing everything

[Madtown]

Mke going 3-4 with 5 in spots Madison on west. Nice suprise this am!