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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


stuffradio

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It's the most, wonderful time, of the year! This is the last month of the year. Sun angles start going up soon. We will soon reach our darkest day of the year, and then we start the spring forward toward spring! I love everything about the time from December to May. I'll stop talking about the future months for this month though.

 

We appear to be finally headed towards having a chance at a normal, classic PNW winter for many or most members on this forum. Next week is the first hopeful opportunity of dozens for lowland snow this winter. It's the first day of meteorological winter tomorrow. Merry December everyone, and may December be snowy for all of us!

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In here fellas

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Posted this in the other thread unknowing of the existence of this one. Here's the 500mb difference between the ECMWF and GFS.

 

Note the increased GOA vorticity on the ECMWF vs the GFS. That's going to lead to a warmer solution during the second half of the run most likely, at least relative to the GFS.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/93CB0B49-F252-4EC6-A344-0C15C4819473_zpsehs5zgit.png

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Posted this in the other thread unknowing of the existence of this one. Here's the 500mb difference between the ECMWF and GFS.

 

Note the increased GOA vorticity on the ECMWF vs the GFS. That's going to lead to a warmer solution during the second half of the run most likely, at least relative to the GFS.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/93CB0B49-F252-4EC6-A344-0C15C4819473_zpsehs5zgit.png

It's going to snow Phil!!! Snow! Do you understand how long it's been??? Snow!!!!!
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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It's going to snow Phil!!! Snow! Do you understand how long it's been??? Snow!!!!!

Lol. Once those first flakes start falling, nothing is enough.

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Looks like the overunning event is delayed a bit to Thursday AM. PDX still manages 2-5 inches as per euro. 

 

That might be better timing actually than Wednesday afternoon. Any snowfall maps to snow?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yeah, the Euro actually doesn't end up much warmer at all, and looks like a more realistic progression than GFS.

 

 

Not exactly inspiring though in the long range...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls17/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls17-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-UOBudj.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not exactly inspiring though in the long range...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls17/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls17-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-UOBudj.png

Like I told Phil...its going to snow!! SNOW!! Do you understand how long it's been??? SNOW!!!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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July-December is my favorite half of the year. Over soon. :(

July-December is my favorite half of the year. Over soon. :(

I would add January if it starts acting like January again.

 

Then you have years like 1949 and 1985 that were very enjoyable (cold and dry) during the late winter and spring. In general though, I agree...late winter through spring kind of suck.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Totals for the transition event Thursday into Friday...

 

ecmwf_snow_48_portland_37.png

 

 

 

I love the ECMWF.   Its so accurate with the fine details.   I know that Andrew's location mixes out quickly in transition events and the map above shows that well.    So much more reliable.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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If this ends up being a great month we will have to rename the thread later. I think the big question is when will the climax come. Could be as early as Dec 10 or so or as late as early Jan IMO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Totals for the transition event Thursday into Friday...

 

ecmwf_snow_48_portland_37.png

 

 

 

I love the ECMWF.   Its so accurate with the fine details.   I know that Andrew's location mixes out quickly in transition events and the map above shows that well.    So much more reliable.  

 

Yep shows that warm nose on the east side of the valley. I am JUST east of that brown, so maybe 2" and then a mix out. Salem would probably stay snow just as long...The map shows it...Looking at the 2m maps a friend was sending me I warm to 40 that evening, but by hour 210 I am back down into the low-mid 30s with cold onshore flow. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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