Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

* * * * - 3 votes

  • Please log in to reply

#1
stuffradio

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:21 AM

stuffradio

    Daily Contributor

  • Mods
  • 2145 posts
  • LocationMaple Ridge, BC

It's the most, wonderful time, of the year! This is the last month of the year. Sun angles start going up soon. We will soon reach our darkest day of the year, and then we start the spring forward toward spring! I love everything about the time from December to May. I'll stop talking about the future months for this month though.

 

We appear to be finally headed towards having a chance at a normal, classic PNW winter for many or most members on this forum. Next week is the first hopeful opportunity of dozens for lowland snow this winter. It's the first day of meteorological winter tomorrow. Merry December everyone, and may December be snowy for all of us!


  • DJ Droppin, IbrChris and Timmy_Supercell like this

#2
luminen

Posted 30 November 2016 - 12:23 PM

luminen

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 594 posts
  • LocationNorth Vancouver, BC

Enjoy the coming snow.  ;)



#3
MossMan

Posted 30 November 2016 - 12:28 PM

MossMan

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4671 posts
  • LocationArlington, Wa
Going to be a fun month!!
  • stuffradio likes this

#4
Jesse

Posted 30 November 2016 - 01:06 PM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 14519 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')
December definitely always makes me think of spring.

#5
stuffradio

Posted 30 November 2016 - 01:08 PM

stuffradio

    Daily Contributor

  • Mods
  • 2145 posts
  • LocationMaple Ridge, BC

December definitely always makes me think of spring.

I was thinking of you. :)

#6
Jesse

Posted 30 November 2016 - 01:09 PM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 14519 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

I was thinking of you. :)


Awe. :wub:
  • stuffradio likes this

#7
stuffradio

Posted 30 November 2016 - 01:23 PM

stuffradio

    Daily Contributor

  • Mods
  • 2145 posts
  • LocationMaple Ridge, BC

December definitely always makes me think of spring.

But seriously, I love everything about this time of the year starting December.



#8
Jesse

Posted 30 November 2016 - 01:25 PM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 14519 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

But seriously, I love everything about this time of the year starting December.


July-December is my favorite half of the year. Over soon. :(

#9
Deweydog

Posted 30 November 2016 - 01:26 PM

Deweydog

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11394 posts
  • LocationHockinson, WA
So what's the over/under on dollar costs for roof collapses in OR/WA for the month?
  • Brennan likes this

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#10
BLI snowman

Posted 30 November 2016 - 01:32 PM

BLI snowman

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4959 posts
  • LocationRidgefield, WA

So what's the over/under on dollar costs for roof collapses in OR/WA for the month?

 

The snow will be too cold and fluffy and arctic to do much of that.



#11
stuffradio

Posted 30 November 2016 - 01:34 PM

stuffradio

    Daily Contributor

  • Mods
  • 2145 posts
  • LocationMaple Ridge, BC

July-December is my favorite half of the year. Over soon. :(

Probably because of the opposite reason why I love the time of the year I love. You don't like growing vegetables either I don't think, so that's probably why.



#12
Abbotsford_wx

Posted 30 November 2016 - 03:02 PM

Abbotsford_wx

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 361 posts
  • LocationAbbotsford, BC

Will we see any sunshine during the next week, and what days have the best chance? Tomorrow looks okay... maybe Monday, Tuesday?

 

I've only recorded 13 hours of sunshine in November (and 28 days of rain).


  • luminen likes this

#13
crf450ish

Posted 30 November 2016 - 04:51 PM

crf450ish

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 792 posts
  • LocationStevens County

I think this month will be better than the last 4 consecutively. 



#14
crf450ish

Posted 30 November 2016 - 05:06 PM

crf450ish

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 792 posts
  • LocationStevens County

I hope the low temps next weeks continue trending cooler. I wouldn't argue with clear skies and temps in the low teens. 

I0l2lXC.png


  • DJ Droppin likes this

#15
luminen

Posted 30 November 2016 - 08:33 PM

luminen

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 594 posts
  • LocationNorth Vancouver, BC

Here's the current forecast for Squamish. It has such a great climate. I gotta move there in the future.

 

gvajpVc.png



#16
Brennan

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:37 PM

Brennan

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 892 posts
  • LocationBellingham, Wa
The last several Euro runs have looked very different at days 5-7... wouldn't put much stock into one run.

#17
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:38 PM

SilverFallsAndrew

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9999 posts
  • LocationSilverton, OR

In here fellas


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#18
DJ Droppin

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:39 PM

DJ Droppin

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4341 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

On 00z EURO I am real encouraged with how much stronger the block was through day 5. Imagine if we see that rate of strengthening next 4-5 runs. Block was a bit stronger/healthier on GFS too.



#19
nwsnow

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:42 PM

nwsnow

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1338 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

Where is the Wednesday precip on the latest euro?



#20
Phil

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:45 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11575 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.
Posted this in the other thread unknowing of the existence of this one. Here's the 500mb difference between the ECMWF and GFS.

Note the increased GOA vorticity on the ECMWF vs the GFS. That's going to lead to a warmer solution during the second half of the run most likely, at least relative to the GFS.

93CB0B49-F252-4EC6-A344-0C15C4819473_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#21
DJ Droppin

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:46 PM

DJ Droppin

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4341 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Nice snow event for PDX! 2-4"



#22
MossMan

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:47 PM

MossMan

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4671 posts
  • LocationArlington, Wa

Posted this in the other thread unknowing of the existence of this one. Here's the 500mb difference between the ECMWF and GFS.

Note the increased GOA vorticity on the ECMWF vs the GFS. That's going to lead to a warmer solution during the second half of the run most likely, at least relative to the GFS.

93CB0B49-F252-4EC6-A344-0C15C4819473_zps

It's going to snow Phil!!! Snow! Do you understand how long it's been??? Snow!!!!!
  • Geos likes this

#23
Phil

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:49 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11575 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

It's going to snow Phil!!! Snow! Do you understand how long it's been??? Snow!!!!!


Lol. Once those first flakes start falling, nothing is enough.
  • MossMan likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#24
nwsnow

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:49 PM

nwsnow

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1338 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

Looks like the overunning event is delayed a bit to Thursday AM. PDX still manages 2-5 inches as per euro. 



#25
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:51 PM

SilverFallsAndrew

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9999 posts
  • LocationSilverton, OR

Looks like the overunning event is delayed a bit to Thursday AM. PDX still manages 2-5 inches as per euro. 

 

That might be better timing actually than Wednesday afternoon. Any snowfall maps to snow?


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#26
DJ Droppin

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:52 PM

DJ Droppin

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4341 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Day 9 - Much different. Things just got a bit interesting. Another low moving southeast off the Coast

 

500h_anom.na.png

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_10.png



#27
Front Ranger

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:54 PM

Front Ranger

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8471 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

Yeah, the Euro actually doesn't end up much warmer at all, and looks like a more realistic progression than GFS.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#28
DJ Droppin

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:56 PM

DJ Droppin

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4341 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Yeah, the Euro actually doesn't end up much warmer at all, and looks like a more realistic progression than GFS.

Widespread 4-6" of snow for PDX metro.

 

6z in 2 hours 33 minutes!!!! Who's ready for colder runs?


  • MossMan and van city like this

#29
TT-SEA

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:57 PM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 20163 posts

Yeah, the Euro actually doesn't end up much warmer at all, and looks like a more realistic progression than GFS.

 

 

Not exactly inspiring though in the long range...

 

ps2png-atls17-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119



#30
nwsnow

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:57 PM

nwsnow

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1338 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

That might be better timing actually than Wednesday afternoon. Any snowfall maps to snow?

Here you go

Attached Files



#31
DJ Droppin

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:58 PM

DJ Droppin

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4341 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Day 10

 

500h_anom.na.png



#32
AlpineExperience

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:59 PM

AlpineExperience

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2612 posts
  • LocationEastSide

Here you go



Can post WA/BC

#33
MossMan

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:59 PM

MossMan

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4671 posts
  • LocationArlington, Wa

Not exactly inspiring though in the long range...

ps2png-atls17-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119

Like I told Phil...its going to snow!! SNOW!! Do you understand how long it's been??? SNOW!!!

#34
G-Sax

Posted 30 November 2016 - 10:59 PM

G-Sax

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 264 posts
  • LocationMill Creek, WA (460')

All this PDX snow talk on the ECMWF but how's the Puget Sound looking?



#35
snow_wizard

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:00 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 10626 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

July-December is my favorite half of the year. Over soon. :(

July-December is my favorite half of the year. Over soon. :(


I would add January if it starts acting like January again.

Then you have years like 1949 and 1985 that were very enjoyable (cold and dry) during the late winter and spring. In general though, I agree...late winter through spring kind of suck.
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#36
hawkstwelve

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:00 PM

hawkstwelve

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1934 posts
  • LocationCarnation, WA - 530ft

00z Euro snowfall map ending 12z Friday. Pretty much Bellingham to Eugene (and Canadian friends!) gets snow at some point next week. Most of this falls Thursday, with about an inch or two falling Monday/Tuesday.

Attached Files



#37
TT-SEA

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:01 PM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 20163 posts

Totals for the transition event Thursday into Friday...

 

ecmwf_snow_48_portland_37.png

 

 

 

I love the ECMWF.   Its so accurate with the fine details.   I know that Andrew's location mixes out quickly in transition events and the map above shows that well.    So much more reliable.  



#38
Front Ranger

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:01 PM

Front Ranger

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8471 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

Not exactly inspiring though in the long range...

 

ps2png-atls17-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119

 

Easily better than the 12z, leading up to that as well.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#39
TT-SEA

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:04 PM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 20163 posts

Easily better than the 12z, leading up to that as well.

 

 

Definitely better before that... and that is way more meaningful.  



#40
snow_wizard

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:07 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 10626 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA
If this ends up being a great month we will have to rename the thread later. I think the big question is when will the climax come. Could be as early as Dec 10 or so or as late as early Jan IMO.
  • MossMan, Phil and stuffradio like this
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#41
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:08 PM

SilverFallsAndrew

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9999 posts
  • LocationSilverton, OR

Totals for the transition event Thursday into Friday...

 

ecmwf_snow_48_portland_37.png

 

 

 

I love the ECMWF.   Its so accurate with the fine details.   I know that Andrew's location mixes out quickly in transition events and the map above shows that well.    So much more reliable.  

 

Yep shows that warm nose on the east side of the valley. I am JUST east of that brown, so maybe 2" and then a mix out. Salem would probably stay snow just as long...The map shows it...Looking at the 2m maps a friend was sending me I warm to 40 that evening, but by hour 210 I am back down into the low-mid 30s with cold onshore flow. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#42
snow_wizard

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:10 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 10626 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

Easily better than the 12z, leading up to that as well.


It's not terrible at day 10 that's for sure. A lot of chunks of blocking floating around.
Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#43
Bryant

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:11 PM

Bryant

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1808 posts
  • LocationBellingham, Wa

Who's got a Washington Euro snowfall map they're willing to share? 


  • G-Sax likes this

#44
nwsnow

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:11 PM

nwsnow

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1338 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

These recent runs are making it even harder to not model ride. This stuff is worse than crack.


  • stuffradio likes this

#45
nwsnow

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:12 PM

nwsnow

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1338 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

Can post WA/BC

 

Sorry, I only found that one. 



#46
AlpineExperience

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:12 PM

AlpineExperience

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2612 posts
  • LocationEastSide

Who's got a Washington Euro snowfall map they're willing to share?


Yup I would love to see a higher resolution map from the Euro

#47
TT-SEA

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:12 PM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 20163 posts

Who's got a Washington Euro snowfall map they're willing to share? 

ecmwf_snow_48_seattle_37.png


  • Geos, MossMan, Bryant and 4 others like this

#48
AlpineExperience

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:16 PM

AlpineExperience

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2612 posts
  • LocationEastSide


Who's got a Washington Euro snowfall map they're willing to share?

ecmwf_snow_48_seattle_37.png

Not bad. It's been quite awhile since the EURO has showed this much widespread snow over the lowlands of BC/WA

#49
nwsnow

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:16 PM

nwsnow

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1338 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

What is this Canadian model?

 

Snow totals through next week.

sn10_acc.us_nw.png



#50
van city

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:16 PM

van city

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 177 posts
  • LocationVancouver, BC

ecmwf_snow_48_seattle_37.png


Thanks for sharing.