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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


stuffradio

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Easily better than the 12z, leading up to that as well.

It's not terrible at day 10 that's for sure. A lot of chunks of blocking floating around.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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IR Loop update



 



We can now watch the pattern change unfolding in real-time. There's the deep low out near 45 N, 165 W that pumps up the ridge over us/offshore. The one we want to suppress quickly. The ridge that becomes the Aleutian ridge, and then GOA/Alaskan block is trailing behind it just out of view. Tomorrow we'll be able to track it as well.

 




http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/sat_common/201612010630_ir.gif


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The euro gives a few inches of snow to pretty much all of the BC/WA/OR low lands next week, when was the last time that happened?

Honestly I'm not sure. It's been quite awhile. At no point during the last two seasons have I seen the EURO show such a wide spread event.

 

Perhaps someone else can chime in . Snowwiz quiet tonight!

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Big hood canal snowfall on the Euro for Mr. Snowmizer. 

Definitely a good chance they get hit pretty hard Wednesday/Thursday. WRF gives them close to a foot.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Euro keeps SEA in the mid 30's through Friday and gives them 2-3" of snow Thursday. Gives PDX about 6".

I look to get 5-7". The thing I like about the EURO is it keeps the east winds going through day 9 meaning it will be very hard for PDX to moderate, especially east of I-205. Add any snow cover, especially if its as widespread as the Euro suggests and we could have a fairly long lasting cold spell/wintry event.

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Yeah, the Euro actually doesn't end up much warmer at all, and looks like a more realistic progression than GFS.

It's still weird looking to me.

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IR Loop update
 
We can now watch the pattern change unfolding in real-time. There's the deep low out near 45 N, 165 W that pumps up the ridge over us/offshore. The one we want to suppress quickly. The ridge that becomes the Aleutian ridge, and then GOA/Alaskan block is trailing behind it just out of view. Tomorrow we'll be able to track it as well.
 

I was wondering when you would write this post. There is nothing that signifies the possible approach of a good storm like going to the satellite loop to "watch in real time."

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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If this ends up being a great month we will have to rename the thread later. I think the big question is when will the climax come. Could be as early as Dec 10 or so or as late as early Jan IMO.

I'm leaning towards a February climax. If that fails, I then agree with your thoughts here.

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I was wondering when you would write this post. There is nothing that signifies the possible approach of a good storm like going to the satellite loop to "watch in real time."

Watching things unfolding in real-time and not having to solely rely on computer models is awesome. One of my favorite things.

 

I will have this loop running constantly and stare at it to make things happen. I'll make that ridge suppress and block become stronger. I will "will" it to happen, or...... I'll go crazy.......

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Totals for the transition event Thursday into Friday...

 

ecmwf_snow_48_portland_37.png

 

 

 

I love the ECMWF.   Its so accurate with the fine details.   I know that Andrew's location mixes out quickly in transition events and the map above shows that well.    So much more reliable.  

 

This set-up looks much better than the early January event this past Winter here at PDX. There I got 3 inches so anything short of that is unacceptable. Moisture looks to be even better this time around. I want at least 6 inches, preferably 8-12 inches.

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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This set-up looks much better than the early January event this past Winter here at PDX. There I got 3 inches so anything short of that is unacceptable. Moisture looks to be even better this time around. I want at least 6 inches, preferably 8-12 inches.

Well as we all know beggars CAN be choosers!

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There I got 3 inches so anything short of that is unacceptable. Moisture looks to be even better this time around. I want at least 6 inches, preferably 8-12 inches.

That's what she said.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Model comparison

850mb temp anomaly 00z last night compared to tonight. Coldest frame

 

Last night

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016113000/ecmwf-ens_T850a_wus_8.png

 

 

and tonight's 00z. MUCH COLDER. I wish I could see the frame for 12z it would be even colder yet.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016120100/ecmwf-ens_T850a_wus_7.png

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6z GFS

Begins in.... 10 minutes
 
In case anyone is still awake.
 
I have no idea what this run will offer. I am hoping the trend of a stronger GOA block holding just a bit longer is what we see. I also hope we see the ridge over us/offshore backing away slightly faster. I am pretty exhausted, so I am not sure how quickly I will be doing analysis or posting charts.
 
Feel free to play along (You may need to refresh pages)
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