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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

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#51
DJ Droppin

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:16 PM

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IR Loop update
 
We can now watch the pattern change unfolding in real-time. There's the deep low out near 45 N, 165 W that pumps up the ridge over us/offshore. The one we want to suppress quickly. The ridge that becomes the Aleutian ridge, and then GOA/Alaskan block is trailing behind it just out of view. Tomorrow we'll be able to track it as well.
 
201612010630_ir.gif


#52
nwsnow

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:17 PM

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Not bad. It's been quite awhile since the EURO has showed this much widespread snow over the lowlands of BC/WA

 

The euro gives a few inches of snow to pretty much all of the BC/WA/OR low lands next week, when was the last time that happened?



#53
ShawniganLake

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:20 PM

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ecmwf_snow_48_seattle_37.png

8-10" here on southern Vancouver Island.  A little less than the wrf but I am not complaining. 



#54
Bryant

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:21 PM

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Thank you



#55
AlpineExperience

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:26 PM

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The euro gives a few inches of snow to pretty much all of the BC/WA/OR low lands next week, when was the last time that happened?

Honestly I'm not sure. It's been quite awhile. At no point during the last two seasons have I seen the EURO show such a wide spread event.

Perhaps someone else can chime in . Snowwiz quiet tonight!

#56
DJ Droppin

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:26 PM

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6z in 2 hours!!!!



#57
ShawniganLake

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:27 PM

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Big hood canal snowfall on the Euro for Mr. Snowmizer. 



#58
Brennan

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:28 PM

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6z in 2 hours!!!!


I'll be up!

#59
DJ Droppin

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:31 PM

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I'll be up!

Same, I think. ....



#60
Brennan

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:32 PM

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Same, I think. ....

What are your typical sleeping hours?

#61
bainbridgekid

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:35 PM

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Big hood canal snowfall on the Euro for Mr. Snowmizer. 

Definitely a good chance they get hit pretty hard Wednesday/Thursday. WRF gives them close to a foot.


2016-17 snowfall: 12"

 

12/8-9: 3.5"

12/23: 0.25"

12/31: 0.25"

2/3: 0.5"

2/5-6: 4"

2/26: 0.25"

2/27: 1.5"+0.5"+0.25"

2/28: 0.25"

3/7/17: 0.5"

3/8/17: 0.25"

 

 


#62
bainbridgekid

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:38 PM

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Euro keeps SEA in the mid 30's through Friday and gives them 2-3" of snow Thursday. Gives PDX about 6".


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2016-17 snowfall: 12"

 

12/8-9: 3.5"

12/23: 0.25"

12/31: 0.25"

2/3: 0.5"

2/5-6: 4"

2/26: 0.25"

2/27: 1.5"+0.5"+0.25"

2/28: 0.25"

3/7/17: 0.5"

3/8/17: 0.25"

 

 


#63
Brennan

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:38 PM

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Definitely a good chance they get hit pretty hard Wednesday/Thursday. WRF gives them close to a foot.


You might have to call in sick and head to your parents' house! Send me a text message man I don't have your number anymore.
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#64
DJ Droppin

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:40 PM

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What are your typical sleeping hours?

Well hard to say. I basically sleep when my knee allows. Before that it was up in the air too because I'd produce music at all hours of the day or night. Often pulling all-nighters to get projects done.



#65
IbrChris

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:40 PM

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Snowy night in Rexburg, ID...2-3" expected. Temp 28.

weather:21REX%20SKY.jpg


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The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.


#66
DJ Droppin

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:42 PM

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Euro keeps SEA in the mid 30's through Friday and gives them 2-3" of snow Thursday. Gives PDX about 6".

I look to get 5-7". The thing I like about the EURO is it keeps the east winds going through day 9 meaning it will be very hard for PDX to moderate, especially east of I-205. Add any snow cover, especially if its as widespread as the Euro suggests and we could have a fairly long lasting cold spell/wintry event.



#67
Phil

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:46 PM

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Yeah, the Euro actually doesn't end up much warmer at all, and looks like a more realistic progression than GFS.


It's still weird looking to me.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#68
Skagit Weather

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:47 PM

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IR Loop update
 
We can now watch the pattern change unfolding in real-time. There's the deep low out near 45 N, 165 W that pumps up the ridge over us/offshore. The one we want to suppress quickly. The ridge that becomes the Aleutian ridge, and then GOA/Alaskan block is trailing behind it just out of view. Tomorrow we'll be able to track it as well.
 

I was wondering when you would write this post. There is nothing that signifies the possible approach of a good storm like going to the satellite loop to "watch in real time."


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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 40 mph (2015, 2012)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"

Snowfall Totals
2008-09: 30" | 2009-10: 0.5" | 2010-11: 21" | 2011-12: 9.5" | 2012-13: 0.2" | 2013-14: 6.2" | 2014-15: 0.0" | 2015-16: 0.25"

2016-17: 8.0" (12/9: 1", 12/18: 0.5", 12/23: 0.75", 12/31-1/1: 1", 2/3: 0.25", 2/6: 3.0", 2/8: 1.5")


#69
Phil

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:48 PM

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If this ends up being a great month we will have to rename the thread later. I think the big question is when will the climax come. Could be as early as Dec 10 or so or as late as early Jan IMO.


I'm leaning towards a February climax. If that fails, I then agree with your thoughts here.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#70
DJ Droppin

Posted 30 November 2016 - 11:58 PM

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I was wondering when you would write this post. There is nothing that signifies the possible approach of a good storm like going to the satellite loop to "watch in real time."

Watching things unfolding in real-time and not having to solely rely on computer models is awesome. One of my favorite things.

 

I will have this loop running constantly and stare at it to make things happen. I'll make that ridge suppress and block become stronger. I will "will" it to happen, or...... I'll go crazy.......


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#71
Heavy Snow

Posted 01 December 2016 - 12:01 AM

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Totals for the transition event Thursday into Friday...

 

ecmwf_snow_48_portland_37.png

 

 

 

I love the ECMWF.   Its so accurate with the fine details.   I know that Andrew's location mixes out quickly in transition events and the map above shows that well.    So much more reliable.  

 

This set-up looks much better than the early January event this past Winter here at PDX. There I got 3 inches so anything short of that is unacceptable. Moisture looks to be even better this time around. I want at least 6 inches, preferably 8-12 inches.


f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg


#72
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 December 2016 - 12:13 AM

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This set-up looks much better than the early January event this past Winter here at PDX. There I got 3 inches so anything short of that is unacceptable. Moisture looks to be even better this time around. I want at least 6 inches, preferably 8-12 inches.


I'd be happy to take those unacceptable three inches off your hands...
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#73
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2016 - 12:15 AM

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This set-up looks much better than the early January event this past Winter here at PDX. There I got 3 inches so anything short of that is unacceptable. Moisture looks to be even better this time around. I want at least 6 inches, preferably 8-12 inches.


Well as we all know beggars CAN be choosers!
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#74
bainbridgekid

Posted 01 December 2016 - 12:16 AM

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There I got 3 inches so anything short of that is unacceptable. Moisture looks to be even better this time around. I want at least 6 inches, preferably 8-12 inches.


That's what she said.
  • westcoastexpat and Heavy Snow like this

2016-17 snowfall: 12"

 

12/8-9: 3.5"

12/23: 0.25"

12/31: 0.25"

2/3: 0.5"

2/5-6: 4"

2/26: 0.25"

2/27: 1.5"+0.5"+0.25"

2/28: 0.25"

3/7/17: 0.5"

3/8/17: 0.25"

 

 


#75
BLI snowman

Posted 01 December 2016 - 12:17 AM

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I'm hoping for 35.6" myself, which would beat my 2008-09 total and relegate it to the loser file of history.



#76
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 12:20 AM

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CPC Day 10-14 Northern Hemisphere Blocking Forecast

Looks very promising

 

 

forecast_3_nh.gif


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#77
Brennan

Posted 01 December 2016 - 12:32 AM

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Blocking looks to move into most favorable position at the end of week 2!
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#78
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 12:36 AM

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00z EPS out...... Through day 7 - 850mb temp anomaly coldest run yet by far.


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#79
Phil

Posted 01 December 2016 - 12:41 AM

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That's what she said.


Ooof lol.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#80
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 12:45 AM

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Model comparison

850mb temp anomaly 00z last night compared to tonight. Coldest frame

 

Last night

ecmwf-ens_T850a_wus_8.png

 

 

and tonight's 00z. MUCH COLDER. I wish I could see the frame for 12z it would be even colder yet.

ecmwf-ens_T850a_wus_7.png


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#81
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 01:18 AM

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6z GFS

Begins in.... 10 minutes
 
In case anyone is still awake.
 
I have no idea what this run will offer. I am hoping the trend of a stronger GOA block holding just a bit longer is what we see. I also hope we see the ridge over us/offshore backing away slightly faster. I am pretty exhausted, so I am not sure how quickly I will be doing analysis or posting charts.
 
Feel free to play along (You may need to refresh pages)

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#82
Brennan

Posted 01 December 2016 - 01:30 AM

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I'm hoping the small details that lead to more snow monday/tuesday and again for the overrunning event start to gain some traction... lets go snow.

#83
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 01:38 AM

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Through HR 30 heights suppressing a tad faster compared to 00z. Good



#84
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 01:39 AM

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HR 36

 

500h_anom.na.png



#85
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 01:45 AM

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HR 54 offshore ridge weakening a bit quicker

 

500h_anom.na.png



#86
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 01:52 AM

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HR 72

 

500h_anom.na.png



#87
Phil

Posted 01 December 2016 - 01:54 AM

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Everything a bit farther west/slower through 72hrs.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#88
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 02:01 AM

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Day 4

 

500h_anom.na.png



#89
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 02:03 AM

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That ******** low is killing this run. It's pushing the offshore ridge back over us. Unreal. In EURO we trust.

 

gfs_z500_mslp_npac_17.png



#90
Sounder

Posted 01 December 2016 - 02:06 AM

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Model comparison

850mb temp anomaly 00z last night compared to tonight. Coldest frame

 

Last night

ecmwf-ens_T850a_wus_8.png

 

 

and tonight's 00z. MUCH COLDER. I wish I could see the frame for 12z it would be even colder yet.

ecmwf-ens_T850a_wus_7.png

 

That's cold enough to snow all the way to San Diego. Good lord.



#91
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 02:07 AM

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That figures because the block is holding nice too...



#92
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 02:08 AM

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Still getting chilly.. have to see how the next 2-4 frames look



#93
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 02:12 AM

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Day 5  ..... garbage

 

500h_anom.na.png



#94
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 02:16 AM

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GFS still seems to not have a handle on the pattern. Very different 500mb progression from other runs. Or maybe it's picking up on something which would be real unfavorable for everyone. Seems wonky with all of the cut-off lows....



#95
Bryant

Posted 01 December 2016 - 02:25 AM

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GFS still seems to not have a handle on the pattern. Very different 500mb progression from other runs. Or maybe it's picking up on something which would be real unfavorable for everyone. Seems wonky with all of the cut-off lows....


Models still struggling. Keeping us on the edge of our seat
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#96
Phil

Posted 01 December 2016 - 02:26 AM

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That's one heck of a low on d6/7. Down to 973mb as it moves onshore.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#97
Brennan

Posted 01 December 2016 - 02:28 AM

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12z in 5 hours! Booo 6z.

#98
Phil

Posted 01 December 2016 - 02:30 AM

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Down to 969mb onshore, lol.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#99
Phil

Posted 01 December 2016 - 02:33 AM

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12z in 5 hours! Booo 6z.


That upstream block is just too far west. Ideally we want it sitting right over the AK/NE-GOA area, not the west-central Aleutians.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017
Thunderstorm days: 10
Severe days: 5
Rain total: 11.58"
Highs at/above 90*F: 16
Warmest high: 99.4*F
Warmest low: 79.7*F

#100
Bryant

Posted 01 December 2016 - 02:39 AM

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That's one heck of a low on d6/7. Down to 973mb as it moves onshore.


If only that low would shift south
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