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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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Model comparison

850mb temp anomaly 00z last night compared to tonight. Coldest frame

 

Last night

 

 

and tonight's 00z. MUCH COLDER. I wish I could see the frame for 12z it would be even colder yet.

 

That's cold enough to snow all the way to San Diego. Good lord.

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GFS still seems to not have a handle on the pattern. Very different 500mb progression from other runs. Or maybe it's picking up on something which would be real unfavorable for everyone. Seems wonky with all of the cut-off lows....

Models still struggling. Keeping us on the edge of our seat

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12z in 5 hours! Booo 6z.

That upstream block is just too far west. Ideally we want it sitting right over the AK/NE-GOA area, not the west-central Aleutians.

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Seems like so much potential...

Plenty of potential, but unfortunately the tropical convection wants to set-up around 120E (instead of 150E) which generally favors a westward shift in the poleward anticyclonic wavebreaking, towards the west/central Aleutians vs the more classic GOA/EPO domain.

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2 steps forward 1 step back approach by the GFS to keep us guessing.

Hopefully Auntie wineo 6z isn't a start of a new and sad trend. Come on 00z Euro...verify!!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6z GFS Ensembles were fine with the trough. Mean temps same, some colder members, but we may warm up/moderate a tad sooner as moisture arrives hopefully not enough to remove our snow chances. The long range slightly worsened. but equally important to mention for Portland and Seattle the operational was quite an outlier beyond day 9-10.

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

 

Vancouver, BC

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

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What a swing in the GEFS..yikes. Literally a complete reversal in the 500mb pattern during the d11-15 range. All thanks to a minor difference in the tropical forcings.

 

Yesterday's 18z vs current 06z.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CB9623B4-A52B-4B05-B385-2E36B17F71C4_zpsp7pss1ef.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BA769995-EC28-44B7-8246-AA29DF996EA7_zpsbzep1iu8.png

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The d11-15 00z EPS looks better than the GEFS, by comparison.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DBEFCC98-7226-4F0D-B68A-1009EA677259_zpsawdyeozz.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CD9AD042-1A23-4497-BF67-FD7B22F48B95_zps5lswra81.png

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IR Loop update

 

What becomes our Aleutian ridge, then GOA/Alaskan block is just now beginning to show up on IR Loop. Far top left of image. Run the Loop and you can see the clockwise rotation emerging.

 

Loop http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/sat_common/201612011130_ir.gif
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06z was a total turd fest. On to the 12z!!!!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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39 degree moderate rain...has rained all night thanks to the pscz...hoping for this kind of pscz when it's cold enough for snow next week!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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PDX got down to 39. #winter

#WarningShot

2013/2014 Winter season

Coldest Low: 14 F December 7th

Coldest High: 27.3 F December 7th

Coldest Wind chill: 5 F December 7th

Lowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6th

Days below freezing: 5

Total Snowfall: 11 inches

Most snowfall in a Day: 8 inches

Days With Snow: 3

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I noticed the Heat Island Effect for SeaTac has a much greater effect on the lower the temps hence why lows are affected more than highs typically. 

This morning SeaTac shows 42 for the low and although I don't have a temp sensor the small puddles this morning had ice on top and ice on the car to the point I had to pour water over the door to open it.  Big difference over such a short distance within the city of Seattle.

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