Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

* * * * - 3 votes

  • Please log in to reply

#101
Brennan

Posted 01 December 2016 - 02:39 AM

Brennan

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 922 posts
  • LocationBellingham, Wa

That upstream block is just too far west. Ideally we want it sitting right over the AK/NE-GOA area, not the west-central Aleutians.


Seems like so much potential...

#102
Phil

Posted 01 December 2016 - 02:43 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15422 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

Seems like so much potential...


Plenty of potential, but unfortunately the tropical convection wants to set-up around 120E (instead of 150E) which generally favors a westward shift in the poleward anticyclonic wavebreaking, towards the west/central Aleutians vs the more classic GOA/EPO domain.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#103
Phil

Posted 01 December 2016 - 02:48 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15422 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

If only that low would shift south


Storm king redux. :D
  • Brennan likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#104
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 03:20 AM

DJ Droppin

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5311 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

I think the 6z GEFS might have taken a step in the wrong direction.



#105
Brennan

Posted 01 December 2016 - 03:31 AM

Brennan

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 922 posts
  • LocationBellingham, Wa

Plenty of potential, but unfortunately the tropical convection wants to set-up around 120E (instead of 150E) which generally favors a westward shift in the poleward anticyclonic wavebreaking, towards the west/central Aleutians vs the more classic GOA/EPO domain.


Literally EVERYTHING has to line up for us to score... if its 9 out of 10. POOF. 😭😂
  • DJ Droppin likes this

#106
Brennan

Posted 01 December 2016 - 03:33 AM

Brennan

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 922 posts
  • LocationBellingham, Wa

I think the 6z GEFS might have taken a step in the wrong direction.


2 steps forward 1 step back approach by the GFS to keep us guessing.
  • DJ Droppin likes this

#107
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2016 - 03:41 AM

MossMan

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5062 posts
  • LocationArlington, Wa

2 steps forward 1 step back approach by the GFS to keep us guessing.

Hopefully Auntie wineo 6z isn't a start of a new and sad trend. Come on 00z Euro...verify!!

#108
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 03:48 AM

DJ Droppin

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5311 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

6z GFS Ensembles were fine with the trough. Mean temps same, some colder members, but we may warm up/moderate a tad sooner as moisture arrives hopefully not enough to remove our snow chances. The long range slightly worsened. but equally important to mention for Portland and Seattle the operational was quite an outlier beyond day 9-10.

 

Portland

MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

 

Seattle

MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

 

Vancouver, BC

MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png



#109
Phil

Posted 01 December 2016 - 03:54 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15422 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.
What a swing in the GEFS..yikes. Literally a complete reversal in the 500mb pattern during the d11-15 range. All thanks to a minor difference in the tropical forcings.

Yesterday's 18z vs current 06z.

CB9623B4-A52B-4B05-B385-2E36B17F71C4_zps

BA769995-EC28-44B7-8246-AA29DF996EA7_zps
  • DJ Droppin likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#110
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 04:00 AM

DJ Droppin

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5311 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

[ Model Countdown ]

Next up....
*12z GFS in 3 hours 28 minutes
12z GEM in 4 hours 28 minutes
12z ECMWF in 5 hours 45 minutes
Will we see model agreement/continuity with 12z runs? Or more confusion?
 
We're starting to get closer to those crucial runs.


#111
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 04:05 AM

DJ Droppin

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5311 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Seattle NWS leaning towards the ECMWF solution.



#112
Phil

Posted 01 December 2016 - 04:10 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15422 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.
The d11-15 00z EPS looks better than the GEFS, by comparison.

DBEFCC98-7226-4F0D-B68A-1009EA677259_zps

CD9AD042-1A23-4497-BF67-FD7B22F48B95_zps
  • DJ Droppin likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#113
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 04:28 AM

DJ Droppin

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5311 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

IR Loop update

 

What becomes our Aleutian ridge, then GOA/Alaskan block is just now beginning to show up on IR Loop. Far top left of image. Run the Loop and you can see the clockwise rotation emerging.

 

Loop http://www.atmos.was...gi?ir_common 12

 

201612011130_ir.gif


#114
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:02 AM

SilverFallsAndrew

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11134 posts
  • LocationSilverton, OR

06z was a total turd fest. On to the 12z!!!!


Snowfall

2017-18: 0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#115
FroYoBro

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:03 AM

FroYoBro

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1649 posts
  • LocationBeaverton, Oregon

06z was a total turd fest. On to the 12z!!!!

 

Yeah, I hope the GFS isn't leading the way on this thing. The Euro looks like a lot more fun. 



#116
FroYoBro

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:09 AM

FroYoBro

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1649 posts
  • LocationBeaverton, Oregon

PDX got down to 39. #winter 



#117
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:09 AM

MossMan

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5062 posts
  • LocationArlington, Wa
39 degree moderate rain...has rained all night thanks to the pscz...hoping for this kind of pscz when it's cold enough for snow next week!

#118
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:12 AM

AlpineExperience

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2794 posts
  • LocationEastSide

Seattle NWS leaning towards the ECMWF solution.


Wasn't exactly an inspiring write up in the snow dept.,

#119
Weather101

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:20 AM

Weather101

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1063 posts
  • LocationVancouver BC

PDX got down to 39. #winter


#WarningShot
2013/2014 Winter season
Coldest Low: 14 F December 7th
Coldest High: 27.3 F December 7th
Coldest Wind chill: 5 F December 7th
Lowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6th
Days below freezing: 5
Total Snowfall: 11 inches
Most snowfall in a Day: 8 inches
Days With Snow: 3

#120
puyallupjon

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:24 AM

puyallupjon

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 600 posts
Sliding east.

#121
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:25 AM

MossMan

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5062 posts
  • LocationArlington, Wa

Sliding east.

It's over.

#122
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:28 AM

hawkstwelve

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2827 posts
  • LocationCarnation, WA - 530ft

IMO, It's a pretty safe bet we will be cold enough for snow Monday-(most of)Wednesday. Due to that, I am focusing on the precip shown to be around and when comparing that to previous runs, the 6z was an improvement. Keeps precip around through the majority of Tuesday, instead of drying everything out.

 

In the LR, the 6z is such a different look than any previous GFS runs that it's an outlier at this point. Let's hope it doesn't become a trend though because it was ugly.



#123
jcmcgaffey

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:30 AM

jcmcgaffey

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 145 posts
  • LocationNorth Seattle (Ballard/Greenwood)

I noticed the Heat Island Effect for SeaTac has a much greater effect on the lower the temps hence why lows are affected more than highs typically. 

This morning SeaTac shows 42 for the low and although I don't have a temp sensor the small puddles this morning had ice on top and ice on the car to the point I had to pour water over the door to open it.  Big difference over such a short distance within the city of Seattle.



#124
Weather101

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:39 AM

Weather101

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1063 posts
  • LocationVancouver BC

It's over.


At least we got January
  • MossMan likes this
2013/2014 Winter season
Coldest Low: 14 F December 7th
Coldest High: 27.3 F December 7th
Coldest Wind chill: 5 F December 7th
Lowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6th
Days below freezing: 5
Total Snowfall: 11 inches
Most snowfall in a Day: 8 inches
Days With Snow: 3

#125
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:41 AM

MossMan

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5062 posts
  • LocationArlington, Wa

Wasn't exactly an inspiring write up in the snow dept.,

Felton always runs very conservative when it comes to snow...which I guess is smart...but doesn't inspire us weenies though.

#126
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:42 AM

hawkstwelve

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2827 posts
  • LocationCarnation, WA - 530ft

Wasn't exactly an inspiring write up in the snow dept.,

 

I get the feeling their write ups and how they communicate snow potential varies a lot depending on who is writing it. I feel like each discussion that sounds more optimistic about snow chances is followed up with pessimistic outlook in the next discussion.

 

Personal preferences of forecasters getting in the way?  ;)



#127
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:42 AM

DJ Droppin

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5311 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

I'm here! sorta

 

Through HR 42 block stronger than previous runs, offshore ridge weaker. Hope this run handles those cut-off lows northwest of Hawaii differently.



#128
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:44 AM

DJ Droppin

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5311 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Day 2

 

500h_anom.na.png



#129
luvssnow_seattle

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:45 AM

luvssnow_seattle

    Epic is always possible... 1% of the time!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3333 posts
  • LocationBonney Lake - 560ft

I noticed the Heat Island Effect for SeaTac has a much greater effect on the lower the temps hence why lows are affected more than highs typically.
This morning SeaTac shows 42 for the low and although I don't have a temp sensor the small puddles this morning had ice on top and ice on the car to the point I had to pour water over the door to open it. Big difference over such a short distance within the city of Seattle.

Where do you live? I live out in BonneyLake and I was not even close to freezing with a low of 41...

#130
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:46 AM

DJ Droppin

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5311 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Not liking the kona low

 

gfs_z500_mslp_npac_9.png



#131
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:49 AM

ShawniganLake

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3821 posts
  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft

29.6F here this morning.  Starting off December with the coldest morning of the season. 



#132
jcmcgaffey

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:50 AM

jcmcgaffey

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 145 posts
  • LocationNorth Seattle (Ballard/Greenwood)

Where do you live? I live out in BonneyLake and I was not even close to freezing with a low of 41...

Ballard/Greenwood area only about 3-4 miles north of downtown Seattle.

 

I am in a bit of small valley between two small hills about 250ft above sea level so that might help keep the cold in.

 

It was clear last night and early morning as well before the sun came up.

 

Edit: I see a couple stations near me on the wundermap show some places got down to 34-35 last night so must be a small microclimate thing.



#133
Timmy

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:51 AM

Timmy

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1969 posts
  • LocationNorth Plains, OR - 1540ft
Sundays system is looking a little colder with more cold air coming off Alaska than previous few runs
  • DJ Droppin likes this

#134
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:52 AM

DJ Droppin

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5311 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Day 3

 

500h_anom.na.png



#135
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 07:58 AM

DJ Droppin

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5311 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Yuck .

HR 84

 

gfs_z500_mslp_npac_15.png



#136
Deweydog

Posted 01 December 2016 - 08:00 AM

Deweydog

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13093 posts
  • LocationHockinson, WA
Horrific.

Someone go get the keys to the vomitorium.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#137
Phil

Posted 01 December 2016 - 08:00 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15422 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.
Eh, 12z GFS looks to be following 06z's lead with the westward trend of the initial anticyclonic breaker, hence a more progressive downstream solution..
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#138
Timmy

Posted 01 December 2016 - 08:02 AM

Timmy

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1969 posts
  • LocationNorth Plains, OR - 1540ft
This is pretty bad actually out 84 hours.

#139
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 08:02 AM

DJ Droppin

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5311 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Day 4

 

500h_anom.na.png



#140
crf450ish

Posted 01 December 2016 - 08:08 AM

crf450ish

    Cool Anomalies

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 948 posts
  • LocationStevens County, WA
#wintercancel

😂


------kidding------

#141
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2016 - 08:10 AM

SilverFallsAndrew

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11134 posts
  • LocationSilverton, OR
Well fellas we tried. Maybe January. I might get an inch or two of snow Monday morning if I'm lucky

Snowfall

2017-18: 0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#142
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 08:10 AM

DJ Droppin

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5311 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Onto the EURO....and GEM. I will say I hate seeing this consistent trend now with the GFS and hoping we don't see this on other runs or Ensembles warming any before day 10. We still get chilly, but doesn't look promising for snow if this solution wins out.



#143
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 08:12 AM

DJ Droppin

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5311 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Day 5 is different. We have a full merge with Alaskan and Aleutian block

 

500h_anom.na.png



#144
Deweydog

Posted 01 December 2016 - 08:15 AM

Deweydog

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13093 posts
  • LocationHockinson, WA
Complex pattern.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#145
Phil

Posted 01 December 2016 - 08:15 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15422 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

Day 5 is different. We have a full merge with Alaskan and Aleutian block

500h_anom.na.png


Look at that small ULL vort over the Aleutians, right underneath the block. That vort will try to phase with the kona low and ignite further offshore vorticity..
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#146
Timmy

Posted 01 December 2016 - 08:18 AM

Timmy

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1969 posts
  • LocationNorth Plains, OR - 1540ft

Complex pattern.


Hot take

#147
catnip

Posted 01 December 2016 - 08:19 AM

catnip

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 194 posts
  • LocationCoquitlam, BC (500FT)

BC is colder so far on this run.



#148
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 08:27 AM

DJ Droppin

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5311 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

The life of a weather geek and model rider. The trials and tribulations. Ups and downs. Highs and lows. Exuberance and anguish.



#149
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2016 - 08:27 AM

DJ Droppin

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5311 posts
  • LocationEast Portland, OR

Complex pattern.

Extremely



#150
crf450ish

Posted 01 December 2016 - 08:28 AM

crf450ish

    Cool Anomalies

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 948 posts
  • LocationStevens County, WA

Pics for the less fortunate?

DSP0YEj.jpg

 

wCEAdz2.jpg

 

FAPYNkS.jpg

 

Taken the same day you asked if I had pics. I originally said no, but then ended up making a run into Reardan for some stuff. Reardan actually did pretty well. About 3" fell there. Was 27 degrees when I drove through, freezing fog wrapped the trees making everything look that much cooler.  :)


  • Bryant likes this