December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Bryant]

I am ok with that map!

Same I think most people would be okay with it

[Timmy]

Unfortunately pdx NWS has gotten lazy lately (or likely staff are on vacation). "Previous discussion as follows". Is their favorite line.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 right now in Baker City with dense freezing fog...They had a midnight high of 18, I didn't think they had a chance, but they just might hit their coldest December on record, its possible now...Their deep snowpack is really helping. They may put up some bitterly cold numbers next week.

[Deweydog]

I think Jim actually has a 60% chance for a white New Year's Day.

[snow maniac]

48hr snow totals from 12z WRF aren't too shabby. 2-4 inches for EPSL. I'll take it.

 

Also grabbed the map for 1AM Sunday. Nice CZ look. If we can get a CZ going, those can be extremely unpredictable and drop unexpected snow totals. Was actually reading over the '08 thread where a healthy CZ dropped 2-4 inches or more over King County on the 18th.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016122812/images_d2/ww_snow48.120.0000.gif

 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016122812/images_d2/ww_snow3.93.0000.gif

Well this sucks total dry slot again. Will I ever get more then an inch? Dieing to try new sled with grand daughter.

[Jesse]

jealous much?

 

I love it, but I feel less need to post and raw raw raw when everyone is doing it. I engage in discussion more when it isn't so one-sided.

I don't know how you would get jealously out of that.

 

It wasn't even directed at you man. We really have no issue here.

[MossMan]

I think Jim actually has a 60% chance for a white New Year's Day.

That is one hell of a bold statement...sir! 

[Deweydog]

That is one hell of a bold statement...sir!

He called it like a week and a half ago.

[jakeinthevalley]

8 separate ditchings/rollovers this morning on the drive from Salem to McMinnville and there were still idiots flying by and riding my tail trying to pass. Really? After passing all of the other rigs in the ditch, you feel like you are somehow immune from that?

 

Rant over

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't know how you would get jealously out of that.

 

It wasn't even directed at you man. We really have no issue here.

 

Yeah Jesse's issue is with me because I correctly predicted his snow was going to transition to sleet about a year ago.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z Euro

 

Day 1

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122812/024/500h_anom.na.png

[Timmy]

8 separate ditchings/rollovers this morning on the drive from Salem to McMinnville and there were still idiots flying by and riding my tail trying to pass. Really? After passing all of the other rigs in the ditch, you feel like you are somehow immune from that?Rant over

Up on my hills the snow we got Sunday night was the worst to drive in, several wrecks and cars in ditches. I couldn't imagine driving a 2wd car with no traction tires or chains up here when it's snowing, yet people keep trying it. More abondoned rigs and car wrecks by far this year than any since I have lived here

[liquidsnow]

8 separate ditchings/rollovers this morning on the drive from Salem to McMinnville and there were still idiots flying by and riding my tail trying to pass. Really? After passing all of the other rigs in the ditch, you feel like you are somehow immune from that?

 

Rant over

 

Darwinism. My buddy drives a 4x4 with all-season tires and legit believes he is immune from fishtailing or sliding in ice.

[jakeinthevalley]

6 right now in Baker City with dense freezing fog...They had a midnight high of 18, I didn't think they had a chance, but they just might hit their coldest December on record, its possible now...Their deep snowpack is really helping. They may put up some bitterly cold numbers next week.

My brother has lived in Baker for over 20 years and he said it is by far the most impressive run of cold weather and snow depth he has seen. He also happens to be the editor of the newspaper and many old timers echo that sentiment. He got another 5" yesterday for a total of over 2' on the ground. They are plowing roads, trucking the berms out of town and doing it all over again

[snow drift]

Darwinism. My buddy drives a 4x4 with all-season tires and legit believes he is immune from fishtailing or sliding in ice.

 

You see more awd and 4wd vehicles in the ditch around where I live. It's laughable.

[liquidsnow]

Lolz, just for fun. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/TJM6FAU.jpg

 

Cars won't do...I would recommend you folks get Siberian huskies and a sled asap. Quickly!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z Euro

Day 2

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122812/048/500h_anom.na.png

[Timmy]

12z Euro

Day 2

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122812/048/500h_anom.na.png

looks a tad further east than it's 12z run yesterday

[Phil]

Exciting developments

There was never a reason to freak out over a few OP GFS runs, especially given how the multi-model ensemble aggregate was/is trending.

 

Once out to day 4, the ensemble aggregates perform better than the OP runs.

[Gradient Keeper]

looks a tad further east than it's 12z run yesterday

Slightly, but the block is tilting sooner, can see it doing so up in Yukon

[Timmy]

There was never a reason to freak out over a few OP GFS runs, especially given how the multi-model ensemble aggregate was/is trending.

Once out to day 4, the ensemble aggregates perform better than the OP runs.

Never a freak out. Just not willing to completely throw a model trend out either

[Phil]

looks a tad further east than it's 12z run yesterday

It's not. At least not relative to 00z.

 

Everything always looks farther east to you.

[Bryant]

Lolz, just for fun.

Yes please

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

This looks EXCELLENT. Block tilting sooner allowing BC shortwave to dig better.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122812/072/500h_anom.na.png

[Phil]

For anyone worrying, the 12z ECMWF is NOT farther east this run, and it's not trending east either. Going to be a nice run.

[Timmy]

It's not. At least not relative to 00z.

Everything always looks farther east to you.

are you that daft? I explained in my statement "compared to it's 12z run yesterday." Further proof that people will see what they want to see, just like in models. I don't have wxbell so I get to compare in 24 hour increments, so I can only compare to that.

 

All in all, euro has watered down slightly from its epic runs a couple days ago, and gone slightly toward the gfs which is why I said we shouldn't throw it out, not that it would cave to that solution completely, but that we would end up with a compromise that is less than ideal. Obviously we still have very exciting weather on the way. I'm glad the euro held its ground as much as it did.

[Bryant]

looks a tad further east than it's 12z run yesterday

He's back and ready to bring people down to earth!

[Timmy]

For anyone worrying, the 12z ECMWF is NOT farther east this run, and it's not trending east either. Going to be a nice run.

comparing to its 12z run yesterday is has gone slightly east out to hour 72. Probably not a huge concern though.

[BLI snowman]

For anyone worrying, the 12z ECMWF is NOT farther east this run, and it's not trending east either. Going to be a nice run.

 

We're not going to be seeing much cold 

[chopper 918]

We're not going to be seeing much cold

Grab your Speedo!

[Bryant]

We're not going to be seeing much cold

Come back to BLI!

[Phil]

[Timmy]

For anyone worrying, the 12z ECMWF is NOT farther east this run, and it's not trending east either. Going to be a nice run.

you have early access right, how good is it?

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think Jim actually has a 60% chance for a white New Year's Day.

the swamp has a 40% chance...

[Bryant]

you have early access right, how good is it?

Lol

[Phil]

you have early access right, how good is it?

That was a joke lol. I'm getting it at the same time you are.

 

Going to be similar to 00z I think.

[Kayla]

comparing to its 12z run yesterday is has gone slightly east out to hour 72. Probably not a huge concern though.

 

Further west at hour 96 compared to the 12z yesterday.

[BLI snowman]

Come back to BLI!

 

Too cold up there!

[Timmy]

Further west at hour 96 compared to the 12z yesterday.

good news!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 trough 100-150 miles further west

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122812/096/500h_anom.na.png