December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

12z GEM day 3. No Kona Low YET

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016120112/072/500h_anom.na.png

FWIW, the GGEM has been even more flip-floppy than the GFS/GEFS for the upcoming period..and that's really saying something.

 

Ensemble means are the way to go, obviously.

[GobBluth]

The Euro and GEM are going to go more aggressive with a blast just as a gfs retreats?

[Deweydog]

Canadian is pretty chilly for Tuesday/Wednesday, brief transition event.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yep. Legit modified arctic blast Gorge east

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016120112/gem_T850_nwus_25.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Much colder 925mb temps on this run. The east wind would be absolutely raging and bitter cold into PDX.

[Front Ranger]

Well it took till December, but I finally got my first frost this morning.

 

Mostly on the roofs and the open spots of grass, but it was nice to see some white on the ground for the first time in probably ~8 months.

 

WARNING SHOT.

[stuffradio]

Have they had a chance to test the new system they installed to prevent that? I don't think we have had much snow since that episode.

They say they fixed it, but they haven't been able to test it I don't think.

[Phil]

Uber-clown range GFS brings the mother load of Arctic air into the country.

[mountainman]

I was going to mention that with the progressive pattern we have seen over the last several weeks, I am skeptical that a strong pattern block would establish.  As it turns out, it looks like the progressive pattern sort of wins out again.  The next few days will tell us what will happen.  I would love to see lots of snow and cold as well.  Let's pray

[Heavy Snow]

I'd be happy to take those unacceptable three inches off your hands...

 

You guys up there look like your going to get hammered with the over-running event on Wednesday/Thursday. You guys deserve a good snow storm. I'm just hoping the East Wind and Gorge will be enough for PDX to see Snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z UKMET

 

Day 4

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

 

Day 5

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

[ShawniganLake]

Uber-clown range GFS brings the mother load of Arctic air into the country.

No kidding.  Brutally cold east of the Rockies. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Comparing the 12z GEM to UKMET 500mb chart looks very similar. UKMET looks good for us. UKMET often scores very high near/along the ECMWF or just barely behind.

[Gradient Keeper]

Serious snow potential PDX metro on 12z GEM. PDX-DLS -8 to -10mb funneling arctic air westward keeping cold layer real thick over PDX. This could be amazing

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016120112/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_27.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016120112/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_28.png

[Jesse]

We are getting into the range where the GFS usually has a warm bias, FWIW. Maybe Michael J. is onto something. Euro will be telling.

[luminen]

That would be amazing if Eugene-Vancouver, BC scored at least 2".

[Deweydog]

Serious snow potential PDX metro on 12z GEM. PDX-DLS -8 to -10mb funneling arctic air westward keeping cold layer real thick over PDX. This could be amazing

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016120112/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_27.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016120112/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_28.png

Are you going just by the precip type colors? Just judging by the thickness profile that column likely isn't gonna stay below 0 for too long.

[Kayla]

So much negativity this morning yet the 12z GFS gave the PDX area this! Too much emphasis is being put on the 500mb pattern lately. Time to keep a closer eye on the surface details!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

So much negativity this morning yet the 12z GFS gave the PDX area this! Too much emphasis is being put on the 500mb pattern lately. Time to keep a closer eye on the surface details!

 

Screen Shot 2016-12-01 at 9.21.23 AM.png

I will be shocked if we see anything close to this. Hmmmm.....

[HighlandExperience]

Just for fun. WRF for early next week.

[BLI snowman]

We'll probably bottom out at 32 with this "warning shot" but get a bunch of snow anyways.

[Heavy Snow]

So much negativity this morning yet the 12z GFS gave the PDX area this! Too much emphasis is being put on the 500mb pattern lately. Time to keep a closer eye on the surface details!

 

Screen Shot 2016-12-01 at 9.21.23 AM.png

 

Wow! 

[Kayla]

FWIW, 12z WRF still has lowland snow both Sunday night and Monday. So gloomy around here after two bad runs....

 

Sunday night into Monday morning:

 

 

I think everyone has been so caught up in the health of that 160 block and the long term downstream effects that everyone has forgotten to look at details below 700mb!

 

Unlikely we see anything like another 2008 right now but that doesn't mean it still can't get snowy for many on this board.

[HighlandExperience]

Also, 12z GFS gives most of Western WA snow both Monday (about an inch or two) and overrunning on Wednesday night. Cheer up guys! Still potential for things to turn better!

That looks nice. This is our best chance for snow in quite some time up here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Serious snow potential PDX metro on 12z GEM. PDX-DLS -8 to -10mb funneling arctic air westward keeping cold layer real thick over PDX. This could be amazing

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016120112/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_27.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016120112/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_28.png

 

Good overnight timing too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Monday morning has serious foothills snow potential for W. Oregon...

[HighlandExperience]

That alone is why I am keeping a positive outlook. Sure, we aren't looking at 6+ inches (even though some Euro ensembles still show that for portions of Western WA) but this is still the most widespread snowfall potential we have had for quite, quite a while.

 

That should be worth something, even if 500mb level isn't panning out exactly like it was supposed to.

Right. I can't remember the last time I've seen such widespread snow advertised on the models. A nice change.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF

Begins in.... 3 minutes (May be delayed)

 

Per Ryan Maue via Twitter:

 

Supercomputers in Reading at ECMWF suffered a power outage and will take a while (2 hours) to boot up. 12z products may be delayed

Important run here

 

Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112912&fh=0

[Deweydog]

The Monday morning system is definitely interesting in an 11-19-03 kind of way. Heavy precip and onshore gradients briefly die.

[Timmy]

Monday morning has serious foothills snow potential for W. Oregon...

Looking at the wrf or what?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Monday morning system is definitely interesting in an 11-19-03 kind of way. Heavy precip and onshore gradients briefly die.

 

Seems like a colder airmass overall though. 

[Phil]

Credit for this graphic goes to twitter handle @griteater.

 

October/November average AAM anomaly was the 6th highest on record since 1958. There aren't many -ENSO/+QBO analogs featuring a positive anomaly, save 1985/86, 1980/81, 1959/60, and 1995/96.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/59333E7D-E5AB-4476-8666-63A4F49CDA03_zpsp5tehdbz.jpg

[Deweydog]

Seems like a colder airmass overall though.

This seems more dynamics-related as it was with a setup like that. All things being equal, the profile Monday morning typically wouldn't be good enough for valley floor snow.

[liquidsnow]

 

12z ECMWF

Begins in.... 3 minutes (May be delayed)

 

Per Ryan Maue via Twitter:

 

Supercomputers in Reading at ECMWF suffered a power outage and will take a while (2 hours) to boot up. 12z products may be delayed

Important run here

 

Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112912&fh=0

 

 

Suffered from a power outage? Probably couldn't handle the epic cold that's set to slam us.

[Phil]

Credit for this graphic goes to twitter handle @griteater.

 

October/November average AAM anomaly was the 6th highest on record since 1958. There aren't many -ENSO/+QBO analogs featuring a positive anomaly, save 1985/86, 1980/81, 1959/60, and 1995/96.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/59333E7D-E5AB-4476-8666-63A4F49CDA03_zpsp5tehdbz.jpg

FWIW, the majority of similar years were indeed +QBO.

[MossMan]

FWIW, 12z WRF still has lowland snow both Sunday night and Monday. So gloomy around here after two bad runs....

 

Sunday night into Monday morning:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016120112/images_d2/ww_msnow24.96.0000.gif

 

Monday:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016120112/images_d2/ww_msnow24.108.0000.gif

I like the colors over my house!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the wrf or what?

 

My woman's intuition. 

[Kayla]

The Monday morning system is definitely interesting in an 11-19-03 kind of way. Heavy precip and onshore gradients briefly die.

 

Such an incredibly fine line but as of right now it looks like we may even go slightly offshore during the coldest overnight hours.

 

GFS/WRF and Euro look to be picking up on this showing widespread 2-4" lowland snow between 12-10am Monday morning. 850s -6C, 925s -1C is definitely good enough with stagnant gradients and moderate precip rates.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we will be waiting a while for 12z Euro run. Ryan just updated on Twitter it will be about 3 hours delay now.

 

I can't take the suspense!! 

 

Say it ain't so!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

It better be running by 1 PM. I have to leave at 2 PM to my surgeon for another evaluation.....