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12/10-12/12 Plains/Midwest/Lakes Weekend Snowstorm


Tom

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Are we on tap to see another widespread significant weekend Snow storm???  It's the pattern that keeps on giving and gladly falling on a weekend and primarily during the daytime so we can enjoy the snow blowing around!

 

Models are converging on a wave skirting the Rockies and developing over the central Plains.  Current guidance isn't to bullish on snowfall in the NE region, but that may very well change if the system organizes better earlier on.  

 

12z GGEM snowfall...

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016120612/132/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

12z GFS...

 

 

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The overnight AFD out of MSP was kind of surprising. They said qpf amounts look unimpressive for this weekend.

 

Pops come back into the forecast Saturday-Sunday with a separate
shortwave potentially affecting the area, but the long term
guidance disagrees on how this system will be handled and the
evolution of the overall pattern. The GFS/EC at least both agree
on a warm air advection band of snow moving through as the system
approaches, so included at least chance wording in the forecast.
At this point, QPF is not impressive for this period.

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The overnight AFD out of MSP was kind of surprising. They said qpf amounts look unimpressive for this weekend.

 

Pops come back into the forecast Saturday-Sunday with a separate

shortwave potentially affecting the area, but the long term

guidance disagrees on how this system will be handled and the

evolution of the overall pattern. The GFS/EC at least both agree

on a warm air advection band of snow moving through as the system

approaches, so included at least chance wording in the forecast.

At this point, QPF is not impressive for this period.

I can see that for MSP, but places E/SE of their region has had an uptick in precip amounts every 12 hours via the ensembles.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016120612/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_19.png

 

 

Overall, it's still looking like a juicy event...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016120612/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_23.png

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Ggem and GFS look really similar. I wonder if the Euro is going to ruin the fun.

12z runs look fairly identical. Wonder what the Euro is gonna spit out.

 

Hoping the "new and improved" Euro has this problem going on:

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I can see that for MSP, but places E/SE of their region has had an uptick in precip amounts every 12 hours via the ensembles.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016120612/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_19.png

 

 

Overall, it's still looking like a juicy event...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016120612/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_23.png

yeah it's looking pretty good for their warning forecast area. really seems to be underplaying it, but i guess there is still almost 5 days so they must be playing it conservative

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From what I can see, 12z Euro has a stronger southern wave Sunday/Sunday night that tracks from SE CO to S OH.

 

Been referring to this as a "clipper" cuz the snow shield orientation reminds me of that. But, what is this exactly, a Colorado Low??

 

 

 

 

I would say the ECM (00z) with its track through PA is way off on this one

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yup, this has potential to be widespread accumulating snowfall. A lot of people on this forum will get some appreciable snows. It turns brutal next week. Now, that's arctic air. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Its more of an open pacific wave on the GFS at least.  Euro digs it slight more into a colorado low. For sure not a clipper

 

Got it - thx (strange set-up tbh)

 

Euro surface map still gives mby decent stuff. As long as the SLP stays south of me, that'll be the key. Have bad flash-backs to Dec 2010 storm though. I-80 and north was golden EXCEPT for SWMI where the turd went through a re-development phase and my foot became a 4" slop-fest.

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Was hoping CPC would show something promising in their update, but NO. It's at the end of their 3-7 day range, but I'm sure they're still feeling the model burn from the west lakes cutter no-show. Can't blame 'em really. 

 

Edit - guess I missed this from GRR's morning AFD 

 

 

 

However 00Z Gfs/ecmwf guidance is in
somewhat better agreement in showing potential for a synoptic snow
event Saturday night and Sunday with several inches of snow
accumulation possible then.

Snow may linger Monday as there is potential for a stronger low to
develop over the southern plains and move northeast into the Ohio
Valley/mid Atlantic regions Sunday night into Monday. The
northwestern periphery of the snow shield with that system may
linger over our fcst area Monday.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I realize that this past Sunday's snow was a surprising over achiever, but which model handled it best?

Once we got inside 48 hours, GFS/NAM did well. Thus far, trends have been coming in wetter and not drier which is a positive.

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the EPS members almost completely dis-favor the operational.  The control is in full support, but the lack of members supporting the OP is astonishing. Most favor the GFS

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Already have SNOW LIKELY for Sat night in my zone. That's bold as sh*t for GRR!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This couldn't be a more perfect track for us, yet somehow it gives us nothing. Give me a break. What will it take for this thing to amp up sooner?

If you got missed to the east on the last round of snow, I'd say you're in a more favorable place for this event overall given the slow retrogression of the pattern.

fwiw - Michael Clark tweeted that he sees an earlier phase Sat over NE. Run with it..

Edited by jaster220

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Tom

 

Is this drying out some? You said that qpf was on the rise but latest maps showing lower snow totals??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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