12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Tom]

The active pattern continues as yet another large weekend winter storm may be taking shape for the middle of the month.  All the models are seeing a system coming out of the Rockies and ejecting out into the Plains and tracking towards the GL's.  Will this be a western or lower lakes cutter???  Let's discuss...

 

12z EPS has been trending NW with this system over the last 3 days.  Here are today's 12z run maps...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016121112/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_6.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016121112/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_7.png

 

 

[Tom]

12z GEPS are the farthest SE track out of the pack...NE wants this storm track...as well as the Lower Lakes...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121112/gem-ens_mslpa_us_23.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121112/gem-ens_mslpa_us_26.png

[Money]

Milwaukee's Thoughts:

 

Polar low gets nudged eastward across southern Canada late in the

week. This will allow some modification of the temperatures across

the region as steering winds become more zonal.  Medium range

guidance in overall agreement on piece of short wave energy getting

ejected from upstream long wave trof and moving through the western

Gtlakes region late Friday into Saturday.  Southerly winds ahead of

upstream trof will carry warmer air northward with deeper moisture

returning. This will result in a tightening baroclinic zone across

the upper midwest.  Isentropic lift along the baroclinic zone will

likely bring snow back to the region beginning Friday.  Trend has

been to carry this system farther north and both GFS and 00Z ECMWF

showing potential for a rain/snow mix across srn WI.  However GFS

ensembles showing considerable variation in solutions.  With this

system remaining an open wave that is positively tilted, thinking

farther south, snowier solution may be more realistic.  12Z ECMWF

has also shifted back to the south slightly. Also have an expanding

snow cover across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes which may help

divert system farther south along lingering low to mid-level

baroclinic zone. Confidence higher on snow event than rain/snow mix.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GEPS are the farthest SE track out of the pack...NE wants this storm track...as well as the Lower Lakes...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121112/gem-ens_mslpa_us_23.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121112/gem-ens_mslpa_us_26.png

You are going to pull us back in, aren't you Tom? Lol. Ok, I'll follow another storm thread. Maybe this is the one.

[Money]

Green Bay:

 

Models continue to show positive-tilted trof late in the week that

results in surface low moving over southern Wisconsin or northern

Illinois. Classic phasing problem with shortwaves in separate

streams. So, timing and placement of heaviest precipitation still

to be determined. It does appear there will be a period of

moderate overrunning precip over Arctic airmass ahead of main

upper level energy and associated lift, so a prolonged period of

frozen precip possible.

[Stormgeek]

I certainly hope I don't get wrangled into another one of these for 2 inches... Last system got 2 maybe 3 and was forecast at 4 or 5.

[WBadgersW]

Here's hoping MKX is right!

[Money]

18z going to be South and good hit for a lot of posters on here..

[Money]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121118/126/prateptype_cat.conus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121118/132/prateptype_cat.conus.png

[Money]

Most of Iowa, Minnesota, WI, northern Nebraska, and Michigan all get 8+ inches of snow.

[East Dubzz]

This is a massive storm

[Money]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121118/144/prateptype_cat.conus.png

[winterfreak]

Still a bad run but further south I guess is progress.

[gabel23]

Need another 50 miles and we are money........keep coming south you sob.

[Money]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121118/156/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[CentralNebWeather]

It sure looks a little farther south. At 138 hours there is a 994 low in extreme southeastern Colorado and at hour 144 it is around kc. That is normally our most favorable track for good snow in central Nebraska. It is 18z gfs so take it with a grain of salt. Baby steps.

[East Dubzz]

That includes some from today's system, right?

[gabel23]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121118/156/snku_acc.us_mw.png

That's so brutal if it pans out like this....I'm glad it's the 18z gfs.

[CentralNebWeather]

Need another 50 miles and we are money........keep coming south you sob.

That is all it would take

[Money]

That includes some from today's system, right?

 

Here is what it shows for the next 33 hours:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121118/033/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[East Dubzz]

[East Dubzz]

I prefer to look at QPF values, so that is pretty much what you get from the system.

[Money]

That includes some from today's system, right?

 

I don't know how to get IWM stuff to come up on here but 72 hr snowfall has a wide band of 14-18 from Iowa east into Chicago and Southern WI 

[Money]

I prefer to look at QPF values, so that is pretty much what you get from the system.

 

True, but ratios will be very good in this set up. 2M temps are in the 10-20 degree range for most of the system.

[East Dubzz]

True, but ratios will be very good in this set up. 2M temps are in the 10-20 degree range for most of the system.

Oh yes I agree. Definitely don't want you to think I'm denying that. Usually, if the storm looks like it'll happen, I pay attention to what the DVN says for ratios and then I apply that to the QPF. Not a big fan of using a predetermined system, but it's not a terrible idea either to give you an idea.

[clintbeed1993]

That is usually a great track for Central Nebraska yet it gives us nothing.  How?

[Money]

That is usually a great track for Central Nebraska yet it gives us nothing.  How?

 

The initial WAA snows are to your north in SD/MN/WI/IA and then the main system doesn't really develop until it gets past you guys and hammers IL.

[Tom]

18z GFS with another look...it would be great to see a system track like this but all the ensembles say otherwise...perfect timing with the approaching storm and the arctic HP to the north.

[indianajohn]

the kiddos don't like these weekend storms but I can get used to these Sat/Sun specials LOL

[NEJeremy]

[gosaints]

18z GFS with another look...it would be great to see a system track like this but all the ensembles say otherwise...perfect timing with the approaching storm and the arctic HP to the north.

Huge thread the needle

[Trinomial]

Tom, are you saying the 18z gfs is not likely to happen?

[gosaints]

Tom, are you saying the 18z gfs is not likely to happen?

With the lack of blocking the high pressure to the north has to align perfectly to stop it from cutting.

[Tom]

Tom, are you saying the 18z gfs is not likely to happen?

Never say never, but like GoSaints said, you'd need perfect timing. With the storm still days away I am not paying attention to that right now. Just the fact that there is still a storm to track.

[Trinomial]

Never say never, but like GoSaints said, you'd need perfect timing. With the storm still days away I am not paying attention to that right now. Just the fact that there is still a storm to track.

That makes sense...thanks!

[gosaints]

Never say never, but like GoSaints said, you'd need perfect timing. With the storm still days away I am not paying attention to that right now. Just the fact that there is still a storm to track.

Right.. And there could be more blocking around than currently modeled

[jaster220]

18z GFS with another look...it would be great to see a system track like this but all the ensembles say otherwise...perfect timing with the approaching storm and the arctic HP to the north.

Cue Jim Carry..."so you're saying there's a chance" (wink-wink)

[jaster220]

Right.. And there could be more blocking around than currently modeled

MKE's disco already mentioned that's a real possibility. Remember when today's storm was looking like another ND special??

 

Then there's that map with MI in the bull's-eye for the worst of winter.

 

Then there was that obnoxious video of Frankie screaming snow-maggedon around the GL's

 

..just sayin

[Money]

0z GFS very similar to 18z.

 

Looks like 6-8 inch WAA snows from MN/WI into IL/IA and then the main system digs a bit and ends up in N. IL.

 

WI crush job with 14-18 inches of snow. 

[Tom]

00z GFS...similar to the 18z GFS but a tad north...