12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Tom]

12z GFS looks a little colder...pressing the snow line down into NE...good trend for those out that way..

[NEJeremy]

everything's flying by. no chance to wrap up and slow down.

[Tom]

Anyone know what the EPO is forecast to be during this period??

[Tom]

everything's flying by. no chance to wrap up and slow down.

Ya, that has been my thinking with a +AO and a fast flow...

[Tony]

12z GFS looks a little colder...pressing the snow line down into NE...good trend for those out that way..

Man I hope so because if it does go above freezing and we get rain it could be very nasty. The ground will still be below freezing so we could have a nasty flash freeze situation for a lot of folks. Not to mention that after the storm it will get very cold again which would just make this a very dangerous situation.

[Tom]

12z GFS...nail biter around here...thinking S WI on north is safe for the time being to remain all snow...ensembles are pointing that way.

 

 

[gabel23]

This is becoming laughable. Everyone around us gets snow but us!! 

 

 

[WBadgersW]

20" bullseye imby. Hopefully I end up getting half of that.

[CentralNebWeather]

Here is an extended view of the overnight 00z EURO...

I would sure take this Tom.  Beggars can't be choosers with any snow amounts.  Thanks for the map.

[Tom]

20" bullseye imby. Hopefully I end up getting half of that.

Extremely high ratios with the WAA snows out ahead of the system...nice fluff for sure!  If that HP can cooperate, Lehs towards the end of the system could be Yuuuge!!!

[james1976]

Still showing a foot for me. We'll see

[Tom]

I would sure take this Tom.  Beggars can't be choosers with any snow amounts.  Thanks for the map.

Sure will be a long week of tracking.  Gosh, I sure hope you guys can score some snow out of this.  As a snow lover myself, I couldn't imagine the pain of seeing snow fly all over the region except in your back yard.

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like the low tracks from Colorado Springs to Kansas City to western Illinois on the GFS.  Just a little farther south and I think we get something (not a lot, but at this point a few inches would be appreciated.)

[Madtown]

Wow to the Gfs...this is Fri already? Within 4 days...wow

[gosaints]

Sure will be a long week of tracking.  Gosh, I sure hope you guys can score some snow out of this.  As a snow lover myself, I couldn't imagine the pain of seeing snow fly all over the region except in your back yard.

 

Larger and juicer WAA snows over spreading out ahead of the system on Friday...

That is impressive WAA advection.  Will be interesting to see if the area of coverage stays as large as currently modeled

[Money]

GGEM looks like the GFS

 

Pretty confident of at least 6 inches of snow here

[Tom]

When nature sets up a pattern, she really sets up a pattern and sticks with it.  If the GFS is right, look how close this precip shield is compared to the way our last system turned out.

 

12z GFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121212/gfs_apcpn_ncus_24.png

 

 

 

Now compare that to this past weekend!  The only difference is, this weekends storm is a much larger scale system....just fascinating!  Patterning at its finest...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121000/gfs_apcpn_ncus_11.png

 

 

[Money]

Ratios could be 16-18:1 with 850's below -10 and 2m temps between 15-20 degrees

[Tom]

Ratios could be 16-18:1 with 850's below -10 and 2m temps between 15-20 degrees

Very similar to how the 1st wave contributed to the high ratios this past Saturday.  In fact, they were around 20:1 around here and into IA.  Last Saturday, the ground temps were in the low/mid 20's also.

[james1976]

Lets pile it up! Hoping for a fluffy snow.

[Grizzcoat]

Ukie seems to be slower,, tad S and tad weaker---

[gosaints]

And the Canadian slightly north of the GFS

[Jaycee]

This is brutal. It's bone chilling outside and we have no snow, now this. It's getting tough to watch.

[james1976]

Hows the snow looking with the CMC?

[gosaints]

Hows the snow looking with the CMC?

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121212/186/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[gosaints]

This wave of energy is sitting off the coast of the NW.  

[gosaints]

GEFS starting to flatten out like the GFS lending a better chance of a spread of the wealth type system.  

[winterfreak]

Decent trends with backend snow/secondary wave of energy I guess. The only hope.

[james1976]

CMC sucks for everyone except MN. Gonna be a fun week of model watching. Just like last week. Lol

[gosaints]

CMC sucks for everyone except MN. Gonna be a fun week of model watching. Just like last week. Lol

I wouldnt worry. The cmc is poor in this range

[CentralNebWeather]

Still 4 days out.  Always love seeing the donut hole in the middle of the runs, not (seems to usually be over Nebraska).  Looks like the map shows initial snow north of me and a secondary wave south of me.  

[Money]

CMC sucks for everyone except MN. Gonna be a fun week of model watching. Just like last week. Lol

I would take it

[East Dubzz]

I originally felt alright about this storm because I felt that HP up north may help, but considering the first wave of WAA looks to be the biggest producer of snow, I don't feel as good about it anymore.

[james1976]

Yeah it does look to be similar areas as this past storm

[Money]

GFS ensembles look similar to op

[Tom]

06z GFS Para...similar to the 12z GFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121206/gfsp_asnow_us_30.png

[Tom]

06z GFS Para snapshots...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121206/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

 

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121206/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121206/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121206/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

[indianajohn]

big concern for freezing rain!!

[CentralNebWeather]

Well let's see what the 12z euro has.  It is at hour 48.

[gosaints]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121212/ecmwf_T850_us_5.png