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Friday Dec 23rd Potential Snow Event


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I liked that GEM run for mby. Would love to see an over-achiever just as a Christmas treat!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z RGEM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016122212/rgem_asnow_ncus_15.png

Really beefing up qpf and snow amounts. Will be an interesting system to watch unfold on radar tomorrow. Big travel day so will have plenty of impacts if this does transpire. Kinda reminds me of the 1st snow in December where it over-performed.

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Let's see what the Euro has to show as I believe it was the first model  to show this wave. Guessing it will not have as much juice as the GEM/RGEM

Agree, they are notorious for high qpf totals.  Both GFS/GGEM showing a nice slug of Precipitable Water out of the GOM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122212/gfs_mslp_pwata_us_6.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016122212/gem_mslp_pwata_us_6.png

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Let's see what the Euro has to show as I believe it was the first model  to show this wave. Guessing it will not have as much juice as the GEM/RGEM

All the models this morning basically are showing similar amounts of juice.  They just differ on placement.  The canucks like illinois.  The rest dont

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Just kidding... I got a WWA for 2-4"!

WWA issued for 2-3 inches. Basically because of the amount of travelers.

We don't have travelers in Michigan plus I get a WWA for 8-10" if I'm lucky, so what would I get for 2"???

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Frustrating to see such a pronounced NW trend.

 

Gotta wonder how much the melting snow over the last couple days may have impacted that.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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