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Jan 2nd-3rd Upper Midwest Storm System


Tom

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Will this be another Dakotas Special or not???  That is the question...or will some of our posters in MN/WI get in on the action???  

 

12z Euro came in a little colder for those in MN/N WI...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016123012/ecmwf_T850_us_4.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016123012/ecmwf_T850_us_5.png

 

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As I said yesterday, this thing has eyes on W. UP of Mich for max impacts..CPC outlining the coveted tri-fecta "bliz zone"

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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18z GFS still gun-ho on on a Dakotas/C&N MN special...

 

 

Has 3 flakes for mby!!

 

 

 

Baby stepping in the right direction though, for those of us this far north. GFS is still the warm/west outlier. NAM/GGEM with fairly similar tracks.

You should get at least a plowable event some here would kill for that. At least it's not cutting worse.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Gem has a 1009 low in Ohio at hr 84

The difference between the 3 models is insane

Keeps it interesting

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Same timeframe 3 days out:

 

GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016123100/072/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

 

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016123100/072/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

 

Euro:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016123100/072/sfcmslp.conus.png

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By Day 5, both models end up having the storm in the same vacintiy in SE Canada....But...much different tracks is say!

 

This is why people who get upset/excited over model runs 6-7 days out are crazy. Things can change so fast, and vulnerable to run to run changes it's not worth getting upset over. 

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GFS is the only model that wraps up an Upper Midwest storm.  00z EPS suggesting this system ends up being a coastal storm!  Model confusion???

 

FWIW, this system has the characteristics of the Dec 16th-18th storm where models over played the strength of the low and it ended up trending weaker and SE.  Not sure what to think with this one.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016123100/ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_4.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016123100/ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_5.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016123100/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_5.png

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